Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch general election

Last updated

In the run-up to the 2023 Dutch general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in the Netherlands. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls are from the 2021 Dutch general election, held on 15–17 March, to election day. The next election was scheduled for March 2025, but, due to the fall of the fourth Rutte cabinet, took place on 22 November 2023. [1] [2] Four main pollsters performed opinion polls on voting intentions in the Netherlands, these being: I&O Research, Ipsos, Kantar and Peil.nl. Peil.nl does not give percentages, only showing seats while the other pollsters do include percentages.

Projections

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the four major Dutch pollsters. The trendlines show local regressions representing seat totals (not vote percentages). Opinion polls NL 2021-2023.svg

Seats

There are 150 seats in total, 76 seats are needed for a majority. Parties are denoted with a dash if no indication is given of their level in the polls.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL–PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL NSC LeadRef
PvdA GL
2023 election 22 Nov 2023249375525333213307002012
Ipsos22 Nov 20232410355525333213317002010 [3]
Ipsos22 Nov 2023231035552634321321700209 [4]
Peil.nl21 Nov 20236,000+26829652844331240611191 [5]
I&O Research20–21 Nov 20232,47327928462745331330501211 [6]
Ipsos16–21 Nov 20232,260291127452435441340610192 [7]
I&O Research17–20 Nov 20232,4732782646274543233060121Tie [8]
Peil.nl17–18 Nov 20237,000-2682665235534124071123Tie [9]
I&O Research12–14 Nov 20232,32327720472346351441801252 [10]
Ipsos10–13 Nov 20232,05228917452347532340910262 [11]
Peil.nl10–11 Nov 20233,000+27721542454341240911281 [12]
I&O Research6–7 Nov 20232,19026818462455351340801293 [13]
Peil.nl3–4 Nov 20234,200+26719442555342230911304 [14]
Ipsos27–30 Oct 20231,924288174522474323401210262 [15]
Peil.nl27–28 Oct 20234,200+26719542454442230901315 [16]
I&O Research22–24 Oct 20232,225266194525473523301100271 [17]
Peil.nl20–21 Oct 20233,000+267205424544422301101282 [18]
Ipsos13–16 Oct 20231013287184620474323401210271 [19]
Peil.nl13–14 Oct 20233,000+267206424544412201201282 [20]
I&O Research6–9 Oct 20232,293276185526563423301100261 [21]
Peil.nl6–7 Oct 20233,000+257196424554412201301283 [22]
I&O Research22–25 Sep 20232,288275185529464314201200252 [23]
Ipsos22–25 Sep 20231,020279184521375333301310252 [24]
Peil.nl22 Sep 20233,000+247176424564422211401273 [25]
I&O Research8–11 Sep 20232,412256144527474414211400281 [26]
Peil.nl9 Sep 20233,000+267156423573322201601282 [27]
Ipsos1–4 Sep 20231,0312610155320395333301500271 [28]
Peil.nl2 Sep 20233,000+257156423573312201801283 [29]
Peil.nl25–26 Aug 20233,000+257155524573332201401294 [30]
I&O Research23–24 Aug 20232,398227133528384334301300313 [31]
22 Aug 2023 Frans Timmermans elected leader of GL/PvdA for the 2023 general election by members of both parties [32]
20 Aug 2023 Pieter Omtzigt launches a new party for the 2023 general election, New Social Contract [33]
Peil.nl18–19 Aug 20233,000+2881988265944332121012 [34]
14 Aug 2023 Henri Bontenbal appointed CDA leader for the 2023 general election [35]
14 Aug 2023 Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius appointed VVD leader for the 2023 general election [36]
12 Aug 2023 Rob Jetten elected D66 leader for the 2023 general election by its members [37]
Ipsos21–24 Jul 20231,00428101966274754433024001 [38]
I&O Research14–17 Jul 20232,7362591557284958642021113 [39]
17 Jul 2023Members of the PvdA and GL vote in favour of running on a joint list at the 2023 general election [40]
Peil.nl15–16 Jul 20233,000+259157725584663212511Tie [41]
258157628 [lower-alpha 1] 5746632125113
13 Jul 2023 Sigrid Kaag announces that she will not serve as D66 leader for the 2023 general election [42]
10 Jul 2023 Mark Rutte announces that he will not serve as VVD leader for the 2023 general election [43]
10 Jul 2023 Wopke Hoekstra announces that he will not serve as CDA leader for the 2023 general election [44]
7 Jul 2023The Fourth Rutte cabinet falls over a disagreement on asylum policy [45]
Peil.nl30 Jun1 Jul 20233,000+20101468111451046732127117 [46]
Ipsos23–26 Jun 20231,0222812158791131055633123105 [47]
Peil.nl16–17 Jun 20233,000+20101367111451047632129119 [48]
I&O Research9–12 Jun 20232,3642210126811124857842128116 [49]
30 May 2023 2023 Dutch Senate election
Ipsos26–29 May 20231,0192911146691341054633125104 [50]
Peil.nl19–20 May 20233,000+18101077111459476321341116 [51]
I&O Research12–15 May 20231,8722491357111231256742227013 [52]
Peil.nl5–6 May 20233,000+18101077111459466321351117 [53]
Ipsos21–24 Apr 20231,00226101168101241155533030104 [54]
Peil.nl21–22 Apr 20233,000+1710977121559466311361119 [55]
I&O Research14–17 Apr 20232,19719101377121339478321311012 [56]
Peil.nl1 Apr 20233,000+1810967121559456312361118 [57]
Ipsos24–27 Mar 20231,0052712127712114844633128101 [58]
Peil.nl24–25 Mar 20233,000+199977121559557312331114 [59]
15 Mar 2023 2023 Dutch provincial elections
Ipsos17–27 Feb 20235,29129151698101049549331141013 [60]
Peil.nl24–25 Feb 20233,000+21131777111358541043119112 [61]
Peil.nl17–18 Feb 20233,000+23121877111358541043117115 [62]
I&O Research10–13 Feb 20232,489241218791312510531043014106 [63]
Peil.nl10–11 Feb 20233.000+22121877111359641143115114 [64]
Ipsos27–30 Jan 20231,0022915181181010594410330101011 [65]
I&O Research13–16 Jan 20232,48924131961091348551253012115 [66]
Peil.nl13–14 Jan 20233.000+20121968101259651343115111 [67]
13 Jan 2023 Gert-Jan Segers steps down as Leader of the Christian Union and is replaced by Mirjam Bikker [68]
Ipsos16–19 Dec 20221,0052714189811123855943013109 [69]
Peil.nl16–17 Dec 20223.000+2012205810125865144311511Tie [70]
I&O Research9–12 Dec 20222,142211118791113410651351113203 [66]
Peil.nl2–3 Dec 20223.000+21112058101258651543114111 [71]
Ipsos25–28 Nov 20221,0402717198910122944933012208 [72]
Peil.nl25–26 Nov 20223.000+20122158101258651543113111 [73]
I&O Research11–14 Nov 20222,06922121879111458641242113114 [74]
Peil.nl11–12 Nov 20223.000+20122158101258651543113111 [75]
Ipsos21–24 Oct 20221,02127162188111031044933012106 [76]
Peil.nl21–22 Oct 20223.000+21122068111258651443112111 [77]
I&O Research14–17 Oct 20222,205211219791112510551052114112 [78]
Peil.nl14–15 Oct 20223.000+21121868121258651243115113 [79]
Ipsos23–26 Sep 20221,00325162097121131043833015105 [80]
Peil.nl23–24 Sep 20223.000+21111667141258651143118113 [81]
I&O Research9–12 Sep 20221,78923151668111267551242115117 [82]
Ipsos26–29 Aug 20221,007271818978114952933016109 [83]
Peil.nl26–27 Aug 20223,000+2012176712135965943119111 [84]
Peil.nl5–6 Aug 20223,000+2113156713134875843119212 [85]
Ipsos22–25 Jul 20221,0092917189891049536340151011 [86]
I&O Research15–18 Jul 20221,95322141669101241055943118114 [87]
Peil.nl8–9 Jul 20223,000+2113156712134875843120211 [88]
Ipsos24–27 Jun 20221,02831161699101158546340121015 [89]
Peil.nl24–25 Jun 20223,000+2112157712135875843118223 [90]
Peil.nl17–18 Jun 20223,000+22111777121358751043114225 [91]
I&O Research10–13 Jun 20222,151241415810111249651053012209 [92]
Peil.nl10–11 Jun 20223,000+23121777121258751043113226 [93]
Ipsos27–30 May 20221,03933141711811105965633171016 [94]
Peil.nl27–28 May 20223,000+25131677121258741143111229 [95]
Kantar25–27 May 20221,07830131696131248665441121014 [96]
I&O Research13–16 May 20222,35628131688111458651043181112 [97]
Peil.nl13–14 May 20223,000+25131677121258741143111229 [98]
Ipsos22–25 Apr 20221,01334141497111151055844171020 [99]
Peil.nl22–23 Apr 20223,000+271415771212487411431102212 [100]
12 Apr 2022 Lilianne Ploumen steps down as Leader of the PvdA [101]
I&O Research8–11 Apr 20222,40329181377111348641043281211 [102]
Peil.nl8–9 Apr 20223,000+26181487111248741143110118 [103]
Peil.nl1–2 Apr 20223,000+2518149711124874124319117 [104]
Ipsos25–28 Mar 20221,0483319159711104954844161014 [105]
Peil.nl25–26 Mar 20223,000+2518149711124874124319117 [106]
Peil.nl18–19 Mar 20223,000+2518149711124874124319117 [107]
16 Mar 2022 2022 Dutch municipal elections
Peil.nl11–12 Mar 20223,000+272014881095964124318117 [108]
Kantar9–11 Mar 20221,19733201381011114764822281013 [96]
Peil.nl4–5 Mar 20223,000+27201489995964124318117 [109]
Ipsos25–28 Feb 20221,0253220171071094955834151012 [110]
Peil.nl25–26 Feb 20223,000+25201479996965134318115 [111]
Peil.nl18–19 Feb 20223,000+23201569997957134318113 [112]
I&O Research11–14 Feb 20222,311271917671011486994218118 [113]
13 Feb 2022 Nilüfer Gündoğan is suspended by Volt and opts to continue as an independent [114]
Peil.nl11–12 Feb 20223,000+221915689979510134318113 [115]
Peil.nl4–5 Feb 20223,000+221915689979510134318113 [116]
Kantar27–31 Jan 20221,0023220161181086556922271012 [117]
Peil.nl28–29 Jan 20223,000+221915689979510134318113 [118]
Ipsos21–24 Jan 20221,0243019179710106957633171011 [119]
Peil.nl21–22 Jan 20223,000+231817689979610114317115 [120]
I&O Research14–17 Jan 20222,2302617158891158610104218119 [121]
Peil.nl14–15 Jan 20223,000+2519187899796893317116 [122]
10 Jan 2022Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his Fourth cabinet are inaugurated [123]
Peil.nl24–25 Dec 20213,000+2718197899696793308118 [124]
Kantar15–20 Dec 20211,00432161810111084887731151014 [125]
Ipsos17–20 Dec 20211,014312118881086955833061010 [126]
Peil.nl17–18 Dec 20213,000+2718197899696793308118 [127]
Peil.nl10–11 Dec 20213,000+301719681096967733081111 [128]
I&O Research3–6 Dec 20212,053291816989948510831192111 [129]
Peil.nl3–4 Dec 20213,000+321620581096966733081112 [130]
Ipsos26–29 Nov 20211,008342020109884855543061014 [131]
Peil.nl26–27 Nov 20213,000+321620581096966733081112 [132]
Peil.nl19–20 Nov 20213,000+321620581096966733081112 [133]
I&O Research12–15 Nov 20212,021331517889106788642062116 [134]
Kantar5–9 Nov 202198533201898986757533261013 [135]
Peil.nl5–6 Nov 20213,000+341820581095966533071116 [136]
Peil.nl29–30 Oct 20213,000+341820581095966533071116 [137]
Ipsos22–25 Oct 20211,0263519199109731056633051016 [138]
Peil.nl15–16 Oct 20213,000+341719591196866533071116 [139]
I&O Research8–11 Oct 20212,05234151671011125868741051018 [140]
Peil.nl8–9 Oct 20213,000+341718591197876433071116 [141]
Peil.nl1–2 Oct 20213,000+361717591196776533071116 [142]
Ipsos24–27 Sep 202199437191888994956633051018 [143]
Peil.nl24–25 Sep 20213,000+351917591196776433071116 [144]
Kantar17–20 Sep 20211,037332020779114666633171013 [145]
Peil.nl17–18 Sep 20213,000+352016781195775533071115 [146]
I&O Research10–13 Sep 20211,9903319167912115876531062014 [147]
Peil.nl10–11 Sep 20213,000+371916691185865533071118 [148]
Peil.nl3–4 Sep 20213,000+371816791185865533071119 [149]
Ipsos27–30 Aug 20211,0083921171071094765533031018 [150]
Peil.nl20–21 Aug 20213,000+361917691175866533071117 [151]
7 Aug 2021The Van Haga Group officially launches a new party, BVNL [152]
Ipsos23–26 Jul 20211,00437221699983865733041015 [153]
Peil.nl23–24 Jul 20213,000+352217691075866533061113 [154]
I&O Research9–12 Jul 20211,939352217691194756632052113 [155]
Ipsos25–28 Jun 20211,0113923179897585453304116 [156]
Peil.nl25–26 Jun 20213,000+35221869107586653305213 [157]
Peil.nl18–19 Jun 20213,000+35221869107586653305213 [158]
Peil.nl11–12 Jun 20213,000+35221889107575663304213 [159]
12 Jun 2021 Pieter Omtzigt leaves the CDA and continues as an independent [160]
I&O Research4–7 Jun 20211,824362114127109585663303215 [161]
Peil.nl4–5 Jun 20213,000+352217119107475663303213 [162]
Peil.nl28–29 May 20213,000+34231811997475663303211 [163]
Ipsos21–23 May 20211,010362517138106394563202111 [164]
Peil.nl21–22 May 20213,000+34231811997475663303211 [165]
Peil.nl14–15 May 20213,000+34231811997475663303211 [166]
13 May 2021 Wybren van Haga, Hans Smolders and Olaf Ephraim split from Forum for Democracy, forming the Van Haga Group [167]
Peil.nl7–8 May 20213,000+34231711997875563302110 [168]
6 May 2021 50+ loses parliamentary representation when Liane den Haan leaves the party and continues as an independent [169]
I&O Research30 Apr3 May 20211,9143423151010107775663312111 [170]
Peil.nl30 Apr1 May 20213,000+32221812997975563302110 [171]
Peil.nl23–24 Apr 20213,000+32221812997975563302110 [172]
Ipsos16–19 Apr 20211,0143526181279778454321119 [173]
Peil.nl16–17 Apr 20213,000+3224171499796545330218 [174]
I&O Research9–12 Apr 20211,73834261514108676546331118 [175]
Peil.nl9–10 Apr 20213,000+3124161499797545331217 [176]
Peil.nl2–3 Apr 20213,000+2825161599897545331213 [177]
Peil.nl26–27 Mar 20213,000+3324161499796545331119 [178]
2021 election 17 Mar 202134241715998865333311110

Vote share

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL–PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL NSC OthersLeadRef
PvdA GL
I&O Research20–21 Nov 20232,47317.4%6.0%17.7%2.6%4.0%17.7%2.8%3.3%2.4%2.2%0.9%2.0%2.2%0.5%3.3%0.3%0.8%13.8%0.2%Tie [6]
Ipsos16–21 Nov 20232,26018.4%7.5%17.1%2.6%3.2%15.1%2.3%3.5%3.0%2.7%1.1%2.0%3.0%0.4%4.1%0.7%0.4%12.5%0.3%1.3% [7]
I&O Research17–20 Nov 20232,47317.1%5.3%16.6%2.8%4.0%17.2%3.0%3.3%2.6%2.5%1.3%2.3%2.2%0.5%4.2%0.5%1.1%13.7%0.3%0.1% [8]
I&O Research12–14 Nov 20232,32317.5%4.8%12.9%2.9%5.0%15.0%2.5%4.0%2.2%3.4%1.2%2.6%2.6%0.8%5.2%0.3%0.8%15.8%0.4%1.7% [10]
Ipsos10–13 Nov 20232,05218.0%6.1%11.2%2.6%3.2%14.5%2.8%4.4%3.3%2.4%1.3%2.3%3.0%0.5%6.1%0.7%0.4%16.7%0.5%1.3% [179]
I&O Research6–7 Nov 20232,19016.6%5.1%11.3%2.8%4.0%15.6%3.2%3.4%2.0%3.4%0.9%2.5%2.6%0.6%5.4%0.5%1.0%18.6%0.5%2.0% [13]
Ipsos27–30 Oct 20231,92418.0%5.6%10.6%2.9%3.3%13.7%2.7%5.0%2.7%2.3%1.5%2.2%3.0%0.5%7.7%0.8%16.8%0.9%1.2% [180]
I&O Research22–24 Oct 20232,22516.5%4.0%11.9%2.7%3.6%16.2%2.8%4.4%2.4%3.6%1.3%2.3%2.2%0.5%7.2%0.3%0.6%17.4%0.5%0.9% [17]
Ipsos13–16 Oct 20231,01317.9%4.8%11.5%2.9%3.9%12.5%3.0%4.4%3.1%1.9%1.3%2.0%3.1%0.4%7.6%1.0%17.4%1.3%0.5% [181]
I&O Research6–9 Oct 20232,29316.8%3.9%11.6%3.4%3.4%16.3%3.6%4.1%1.9%3.0%1.6%2.3%2.4%0.5%7.5%0.3%0.6%16.5%0.5%0.3% [21]
I&O Research22–25 Sep 20232,28817.3%3.7%11.5%3.4%3.6%18.1%3.0%4.0%2.6%2.3%1.0%2.6%1.7%0.4%7.8%0.3%0.6%16.0%0.3%0.8% [23]
Ipsos22–25 Sep 20231,02017.2%6.1%11.4%2.9%3.2%13.3%2.4%4.9%3.4%2.1%2.2%2.1%2.4%0.5%8.2%1.0%15.8%1.0%1.4% [182]
I&O Research8–11 Sep 20232,41216.5%4.1%9.1%2.6%3.3%17.6%2.6%4.9%2.6%2.7%1.3%2.6%1.3%0.7%9.0%0.3%0.5%18.0%0.3%0.4% [26]
Ipsos1–4 Sep 202394117.1%6.7%9.5%3.7%2.2%12.7%2.1%6.2%3.3%2.2%2.1%2.3%2.0%0.3%9.5%0.5%17.3%0.3%0.2% [183]
I&O Research23–24 Aug 20232,39813.9%4.5%8.6%2.5%3.5%18.0%2.2%5.2%2.9%2.0%2.1%2.6%1.9%0.5%8.5%0.3%0.4%20.2%0.2%2.2% [31]
Ipsos21–24 Jul 20231,00417.5%6.5%12.1%4.0%3.9%16.6%2.5%4.9%3.6%2.7%2.9%2.0%2.4%0.6%15.3%0.3%2.1%0.9% [38]
I&O Research14–17 Jul 20231,71815.5%5.6%9.5%3.2%4.4%17.0%2.9%5.9%3.5%5.0%4.2%2.9%1.4%0.7%13.1%0.9%0.9%3.4%1.5% [39]
Ipsos23–26 Jun 20231,02218.1%7.7%9.6%5.1%4.8%5.7%7.0%2.2%6.3%3.7%3.6%4.0%1.9%2.2%0.7%14.5%1.2%1.6%3.6% [184]
I&O Research9–12 Jun 20232,36413.7%6.6%8.0%4.2%5.1%7.3%7.6%2.7%5.5%3.3%4.7%5.5%2.6%1.4%0.7%17.5%0.7%0.7%2.1%3.8% [49]
Ipsos26–29 May 20231,01919.0%7.3%9.1%4.1%4.1%6.0%8.3%2.7%6.3%3.3%2.6%3.8%2.2%2.1%0.7%16.2%1.2%1.1%2.8% [185]
I&O Research12–15 May 20231,87214.9%5.9%8.6%3.2%4.5%7.3%7.4%1.9%7.9%3.6%4.3%4.9%2.6%1.6%1.5%16.8%0.3%1.0%1.8%1.9% [52]
Ipsos21–24 Apr 20231,00216.8%6.7%7.0%4.2%5.0%6.6%8.0%2.5%6.9%3.6%3.3%3.2%2.3%2.2%0.4%19.1%0.7%1.5%2.3% [186]
I&O Research14–17 Apr 20232,19711.8%6.2%8.0%4.6%4.6%7.8%8.0%2.3%6.0%2.8%4.5%5.3%2.4%1.6%0.8%19.3%0.8%0.4%2.9%7.5% [56]
Ipsos24–27 Mar 20231,00517.2%7.7%7.8%4.6%4.9%7.4%7.0%3.0%5.1%2.5%2.9%4.3%2.3%2.4%0.9%17.9%0.8%1.3%0.7% [60]
Provincial elections 15 Mar 202311.2%6.3%5.7%6.6%4.2%8.1%9.0%3.1%4.8%3.7%3.0%4.4%2.5%0.6%2.3%19.2%1.0%4.3%8.0%
Ipsos17–27 Feb 20235,29118.6%9.4%10.5%6.0%5.4%6.4%6.4%3.0%5.7%3.1%2.8%5.7%2.3%2.4%0.8%9.4%0.9%1.5%8.1% [60]
I&O Research10–13 Feb 20232,48914.8%7.6%11.4%4.8%5.6%8.4%7.8%3.1%6.2%3.3%2.4%6.6%2.8%1.9%0.5%9.0%0.7%0.4%2.5%3.4% [187]
Ipsos27–30 Jan 20231,00218.5%9.8%11.2%7.1%5.1%6.2%6.7%3.5%6.1%3.1%2.6%6.8%2.1%2.0%0.6%6.5%0.7%1.5%7.3% [188]
I&O Research13–16 Jan 20232,48915.0%8.1%11.5%3.9%6.4%5.9%8.1%2.9%5.4%3.6%3.3%7.6%3.1%2.4%0.3%7.5%1.0%0.8%3.3%3.5% [66]
Ipsos16–19 Dec 20221,00516.9%8.7%11.8%6.0%5.3%7.0%8.0%2.3%5.0%3.3%3.4%6.0%2.6%1.9%0.6%8.4%1.0%1.9%5.1% [189]
I&O Research9–12 Dec 20222,14212.9%7.3%11.4%4.3%5.6%6.8%8.4%2.5%6.2%3.7%3.5%8.4%3.4%1.0%1.0%8.5%1.2%0.3%3.6%1.5% [66]
Ipsos25–28 Nov 20221,04017.2%11.0%12.0%5.4%5.7%6.5%7.5%1.4%5.8%3.1%3.1%5.8%2.0%2.0%0.6%7.9%1.3%1.8%5.2% [190]
I&O Research11–14 Nov 20222,06913.6%7.8%11.6%4.6%5.7%6.7%9.1%3.2%5.2%4.1%2.6%7.4%2.8%1.5%1.2%8.4%1.0%0.8%2.7%2.0% [74]
Ipsos21–24 Oct 20221,02117.3%10.3%13.4%5.0%5.5%6.9%6.2%1.9%6.4%2.9%3.0%5.7%2.3%2.1%0.5%7.6%1.1%2.0%3.9% [191]
I&O Research14–17 Oct 20222,20513.2%8.0%12.4%4.4%6.2%7.1%8.0%3.2%6.5%3.4%3.4%6.7%3.2%1.7%0.7%9.1%1.2%1.0%0.4%0.8% [78]
Ipsos23–26 Sep 20221,00316.1%10.0%12.5%5.7%4.8%7.8%7.2%2.4%6.4%3.0%2.0%5.2%2.3%2.2%0.6%9.4%0.9%1.5%3.6% [192]
I&O Research9–12 Sep 20221,78914.6%9.6%10.7%4.1%5.1%7.4%7.9%3.8%4.9%3.3%3.6%7.8%2.6%1.6%0.8%9.9%1.1%1.0%0.3%3.9% [82]
Ipsos26–29 Aug 20221,00717.1%11.3%11.5%5.8%4.8%5.5%7.1%2.7%5.8%3.4%1.5%6.1%2.3%2.2%0.6%10.1%0.7%1.5%5.6% [193]
Ipsos22–25 Jul 20221,00918.7%11.0%11.5%5.6%5.1%5.8%6.3%2.8%6.1%3.4%2.1%4.2%2.3%2.7%0.5%9.6%0.9%1.5%7.2% [194]
I&O Research15–18 Jul 20221,95314.0%8.7%10.0%3.9%5.9%6.3%7.5%2.8%6.4%3.6%3.2%5.8%2.9%2.2%1.1%11.5%1.2%0.9%2.2%2.5% [87]
Ipsos24–27 Jun 20221,02819.4%10.2%10.3%5.8%5.9%6.3%7.3%3.6%5.3%3.3%2.9%3.9%2.4%2.7%0.7%7.8%0.8%1.4%9.1% [195]
I&O Research10–13 Jun 20222,15115.3%8.7%9.5%5.5%6.2%7.2%7.6%2.9%5.5%3.8%3.7%6.7%3.1%2.1%0.4%7.7%1.5%0.3%2.0%7.7% [92]
Ipsos27–30 May 20221,03920.7%9.3%10.8%7.2%5.5%6.9%6.8%3.2%5.8%4.0%3.5%4.4%2.2%2.5%0.7%4.8%0.7%1.4%9.9% [196]
Kantar25–27 May 20221,07819.0%8.0%10.0%6.0%4.0%9.0%8.0%3.0%5.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%1.0%8.0%1.0%0.0%9.0% [96]
I&O Research13–16 May 20222,35617.4%8.3%9.7%5.2%5.3%6.7%8.7%3.3%5.3%4.1%3.3%6.6%2.7%2.1%0.7%5.5%1.0%1.0%3.0%7.7% [97]
Ipsos22–25 Apr 20221,01321.2%9.1%9.1%6.0%4.9%6.9%7.0%3.2%6.4%3.5%3.5%5.2%3.1%3.1%0.8%4.6%0.8%1.8%12.1% [197]
I&O Research8–11 Apr 20222,40317.8%11.1%8.1%4.5%4.8%6.9%8.5%2.8%5.5%4.3%3.0%6.2%2.5%2.2%1.3%5.8%0.9%1.3%2.8%6.7% [102]
Ipsos25–28 Mar 20221,04820.6%12.2%9.3%6.0%4.6%7.0%6.6%2.8%6.0%3.6%3.0%5.3%2.6%3.0%0.8%4.0%0.9%1.8%8.4% [198]
Local elections 16 Mar 202211.6%8.7%0.9%11.2%2.8%7.8%8.4%1.1%2.0%3.9%0.7%0.2%2.3%1.0%0.6%0.6%0.3%35.9%24.3%
Kantar9–11 Mar 20221,19721.0%13.0%8.0%5.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%3.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%5.0%2.0%1.0%2.0%5.0%1.0%0.0%8.0% [96]
Ipsos25–28 Feb 20221,02520.0%12.8%10.8%6.9%4.8%6.5%5.7%3.0%5.7%3.6%3.2%5.3%2.4%2.8%1.0%3.2%0.7%1.6%7.2% [110]
I&O Research11–14 Feb 20222,31116.8%11.9%10.3%3.9%4.8%6.3%6.8%3.0%5.1%3.9%5.5%5.9%2.8%1.6%1.1%5.5%1.2%0.9%2.4%4.9% [113]
Kantar27–31 Jan 20221,00221.0%13.0%10.0%8.0%5.0%6.0%6.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%6.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%5.0%1.0%0.0%8.0% [117]
Ipsos21–24 Jan 20221,02419.2%11.8%10.7%6.0%4.5%6.3%6.8%4.2%6.0%3.4%4.6%4.3%2.5%2.3%0.9%4.7%0.8%1.0%7.4% [119]
I&O Research14–17 Jan 20222,23017.0%11.3%9.7%5.2%5.1%5.9%7.1%3.3%5.1%4.0%6.4%6.3%2.8%1.6%1.3%5.4%1.3%0.7%2.0%5.7% [121]
Kantar15–20 Dec 20211,00421.0%10.0%12.0%7.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%3.0%5.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%2.0%1.0%1.0%3.0%1.0%0.0%9.0% [125]
Ipsos17–20 Dec 20211,01419.6%13.1%11.5%5.5%5.1%6.8%5.3%4.0%5.7%3.7%3.2%5.4%2.3%2.4%0.5%3.8%0.9%1.2%6.5% [126]
I&O Research3–6 Dec 20212,05318.2%11.3%10.0%5.6%5.2%6.0%5.8%2.6%5.0%3.3%6.1%5.0%2.4%1.0%1.1%6.1%1.4%0.8%3.0%6.9% [129]
Ipsos26–29 Nov 20211,00821.4%12.8%12.5%6.7%5.7%5.2%5.4%2.8%5.4%3.5%3.5%3.6%2.5%2.3%0.5%4.2%0.7%1.3%8.6% [131]
I&O Research12–15 Nov 20212,02120.1%9.3%10.7%4.9%5.4%6.1%6.3%4.2%4.4%4.9%5.4%4.1%2.8%1.6%0.6%4.5%1.3%0.7%2.5%9.4% [134]
Kantar5–9 Nov 202198521.0%13.0%11.0%6.0%5.0%6.0%6.0%4.0%5.0%3.0%5.0%4.0%2.0%2.0%1.0%4.0%1.0%0.0%8.0% [135]
Ipsos22–25 Oct 20211,02621.6%12.0%12.0%6.0%6.3%5.9%4.8%2.4%6.0%3.6%4.0%4.0%2.0%2.4%0.5%3.5%1.1%1.9%9.6% [138]
I&O Research8–11 Oct 20212,05221.2%9.3%9.7%4.2%6.0%7.1%7.3%3.3%4.8%4.2%5.0%4.2%2.8%0.7%0.5%3.8%1.1%0.6%4.3%11.5% [140]
Ipsos24–27 Sep202199423.3%12.1%11.3%5.5%5.3%5.9%5.7%3.0%5.9%3.4%3.9%3.7%1.9%2.5%0.4%3.5%1.0%1.7%11.2% [143]
Kantar17–20 Sep 20211,03721.0%13.0%13.0%5.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%3.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%4.0%3.0%3.0%1.0%5.0%1.0%0.0%8.0% [145]
I&O Research10–13 Sep 20211,99020.4%11.8%10.3%4.7%6.1%7.7%6.8%3.0%5.2%4.8%3.9%3.5%2.2%1.0%0.4%4.3%1.6%0.6%1.6%8.6% [147]
Ipsos27–30 Aug 20211,00824.6%13.5%10.9%6.5%4.5%6.3%5.8%2.9%5.0%3.9%3.2%3.5%2.4%2.4%0.3%2.4%0.7%1.2%11.1% [150]
Ipsos23–26 Jul 20211,00423.3%13.7%10.5%6.2%5.9%5.7%5.0%2.5%5.3%3.8%3.5%4.5%2.3%2.4%0.6%2.8%1.0%1.0%9.6% [153]
I&O Research9–12 Jul 20211,93921.5%13.7%10.4%4.1%6.0%7.2%5.9%3.0%4.7%3.5%3.9%4.0%2.4%1.6%0.3%3.5%2.0%1.2%1.1%7.8% [155]
Ipsos25–28 Jun20211,01124.6%14.2%10.8%6.1%5.3%6.1%4.9%3.5%5.1%3.4%3.0%3.2%2.4%2.4%0.6%2.8%0.7%0.9%10.4% [156]
I&O Research4–7 Jun 20211,82422.8%13.5%9.2%7.9%4.8%6.5%5.7%3.5%5.0%3.5%4.4%3.9%2.2%2.0%0.5%2.3%1.5%1.0%9.3% [161]
Ipsos21–23 May 20211,01022.9%15.9%11.1%8.7%5.2%6.4%4.3%2.3%5.7%3.1%3.2%4.0%2.4%1.5%0.5%1.3%0.8%0.7%7.0% [164]
I&O Research30 Apr3 May 20211,91421.5%14.3%9.9%6.4%6.5%6.4%5.0%5.0%4.4%3.5%3.9%3.8%2.0%2.2%0.7%1.8%1.3%1.1%7.2% [170]
Ipsos16–19 Apr 20211,01422.5%16.7%11.7%7.7%4.5%6.3%4.7%4.5%5.2%3.2%3.4%2.9%2.2%1.5%0.8%0.8%0.7%0.8%5.8% [173]
I&O Research9–12 Apr 20211,73821.6%16.5%9.5%8.8%6.4%5.3%4.2%4.7%4.3%3.4%3.0%3.8%2.1%1.9%0.8%1.0%1.1%1.5%5.1% [175]
2021 election 17 Mar 202121.9%15.0%10.9%9.5%6.0%5.7%5.2%5.0%3.8%3.4%2.4%2.4%2.1%2.0%1.0%1.0%0.8%2.0% [lower-alpha 2] 6.9%

Hypothetical scenarios

Polling firmFieldwork
date
Sample
size
VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK BBB BIJ1 OthersLeadRef
I&O Research11–14 Nov 20222,06915.2%6.3%11.4%3.8%5.1%20.3%3.8%5.1%3.8%2.5%7.6%2.5%1.3%7.6%1.3%2.5%5.1% [74]
I&O Research10–13 Sep 20212,20719.4%10.3%10.0%4.7%5.7%19.7%4.2%2.4%4.9%2.5%3.6%2.5%1.2%4.4%2.7%1.8%0.3% [147]

Pieter Omtzigt joins BBB

Pieter Omtzigt has stated he would not join BBB. [199]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL OthersLeadRef
PvdA GL
Peil.nl26 Mar 20234,000+1886551014485442115311035 [59]

Pieter Omtzigt returns to CDA

Pieter Omtzigt has stated he would not return to CDA. [200]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 BVNL OthersLeadRef
PvdA GL
I&O Research14–17 Jul 20231,728238131762649376421191103 [39]

Pieter Omtzigt's party

This scenario occurred on 19 August when Omtzigt founded the New Social Contract party.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
VVD D66 PVV CDA SP GL/PvdA FvD PvdD CU Volt JA21 SGP DENK 50+ BBB BIJ1 Pieter Omtzigt List BVNL LeadRef
PvdA GL
Peil.nl18–19 Aug 20233,000+258156624583422211202702 [34]
I&O Research14–17 Jul 20231,7282071043213735442011046025 [39]
Peil.nl 15–16 Jul 20233,000+238125522573543201512916
237125426 [lower-alpha 1] 563543201512812
Peil.nl 26 Mar 20234,000+1887549134744531117138120
Peil.nl 18 Dec 20223,000+19121635811574494308130111
Peil.nl 16 Oct 20223,000+20121446101148448430812818
Peil.nl 07 Aug 20223,000+191213451112476564311122415
Peil.nl 27 Mar 20223,000+2317117591147648430512603
I&O Research 8–11 Oct 20212,052209104677454542141204Tie
Peil.nl 12 Sep 20213,000+341812669746543330312519
Peil.nl 4 Apr 20213,000+26251287787643323011271
Peil.nl 28 Mar 20213,000+32221397877543323011239

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Frans Timmermans as hypothetical lead candidate
  2. CO with 0.4%, NIDA and Splinter with 0.3%, others with 1.0%

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