2023 Dutch Senate election

2023 Dutch Senate election

←  2019 30 May 2023 2027  →

All 75 seats in the Senate 38 seats needed for a majority

Party Leader % Seats +/– BBB Ilona Lagas 20.66 16 New VVD Edith Schippers 12.40 10 −2 GL [lower-alpha 1] Paul Rosenmöller 9.67 7 −1 PvdA [lower-alpha 1] Mei Li Vos 8.86 7 +1 CDA Theo Bovens 7.34 6 −3 D66 Paul van Meenen 6.23 5 −2 PVV Marjolein Faber 6.10 4 −1 PvdD Niko Koffeman 4.78 3 0 JA21 Annabel Nanninga 4.63 3 New SP Tiny Kox 4.14 3 −1 CU Tineke Huizinga 3.68 3 −1 FvD Johan Dessing 2.72 2 −10 Volt Gaby Perin-Gopie 2.70 2 New SGP Peter Schalk 2.48 2 0 50+ Martin van Rooijen 1.82 1 −1 OPNL Auke van der Goot 1.78 1 0 This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below. President of the Senate before President of the Senate after Jan Anthonie Bruijn VVD Jan Anthonie Bruijn VVD

An election to the Dutch Senate was held on 30 May 2023. ^[2] The 75 members of the Senate were elected by members of the provincial councils and electoral colleges elected two months earlier in provincial and electoral college elections.

The four coalition parties saw their combined seat count decrease from 32 to 24. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which had come first in the provincial elections, entered the Senate with 16 seats. The Labour Party and GroenLinks, which intend to form a joint parliamentary group, won a combined 14 seats.

Background

Since 2017, the Netherlands has had coalition governments consisting of the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD), Democrats 66 (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU). After the 2019 Senate election, this coalition lost its majority in the Senate, holding 32 seats. Being 6 seats short of a majority made it necessary for the government to seek cooperation with opposition parties such as the Labour Party (PvdA), GroenLinks and JA21 in order to get legislation through the Senate. The coalition parties were long expected to lose more seats in the 2023 Senate election, which would make it more difficult for the government to find majorities for important legislation. ^[3]

In June 2022, members of the PvdA and GroenLinks voted in favour of the formation of a joint Senate group after the 2023 election. This makes the election an important step for the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance. ^[4]

Since 2019, the government has had the intention to limit the human impact on the nitrogen cycle. Its nitrogen bill has met resistance from several opposition parties including the Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB), which was founded in 2019 and entered the House of Representatives with one seat in 2021. With BBB expected to become a significant force in the Senate after the 2023 election, the government was expected to look to the left for support. However, in early March 2023, PvdA and GroenLinks, as well as other left-wing parties, also announced their intention to vote against the nitrogen bill in the Senate. ^[5] The government is also expected to face difficulty finding majorities for its climate legislation ^[6] and its bill for the distribution of asylum seekers. ^[7]

The government is therefore expected to have to make concessions to opposition parties on these pieces of legislation. However, voters of coalition parties are divided over the question whether the government should turn "left" or "right" in search of support for its legislation. A March 2023 poll shows that a majority of D66 voters wants the government to cooperate with GroenLinks–PvdA, while a majority of VVD and CDA voters would prefer for the government to cooperate with BBB. ^[8]

Electoral system

Main article: Elections in the Netherlands

The Senate consists of 75 members elected every four years by the members of the provincial councils of the country's twelve provinces, and, following law changes in 2017 and 2022, electoral colleges representing the special municipalities of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba ^{[9] [10]} and Dutch nationals living abroad, who are in turn elected directly by the citizens two months earlier in the 2023 provincial and electoral college elections.

The weight of each elector's vote is determined by the population of the province or special municipality which the elector represents, at a ratio of approximately 1 vote per 100 residents. The seats are distributed in one nationwide constituency using party-list proportional representation. ^[11]

Electors

Party or alliance				Provincial councils												Electoral colleges				Total	+/−
				DR	FL	FR	GE	GR	LI	NB	NH	OV	UT	ZE	ZH	NI	BO	SA	SE
	Farmer–Citizen Movement			17	10	14	14	12	10	11	8	17	7	9	8	—	—	—	—	137	New
	GL–PvdA		GroenLinks [lower-alpha 2]	2	3	3	5	5	4	5	7	4	7	3	6	5	—	—	—	59	−2
			Labour Party [lower-alpha 2]	4	3	5	5	5	3	4	7	3	3	3	4	2	—	—	—	51	−2
		Total		6	6	8	10	10	7	9	14	7	10	6	10	7	0	0	0	110	−4
	People's Party for Freedom and Democracy			4	4	3	6	2	5	9	8	4	6	4	8	4	—	—	—	67	−13
	Christian Democratic Appeal			3	2	4	4	2	5	4	2	4	4	5	4	1	—	—	1	45	−27
	Democrats 66			1	2	1	3	2	3	4	4	2	5	1	4	4	—	—	—	36	−5
	Party for Freedom			2	3	2	2	2	6	4	3	2	2	2	4	—	—	—	—	34	−6
	Party for the Animals			2	2	1	2	2	2	2	4	1	3	1	3	2	—	—	—	27	+7
	JA21			1	2	1	2	—	2	2	3	2	2	1	4	2	—	—	—	24	New
	Socialist Party			2	2	1	2	2	3	4	2	1	1	1	2	1	—	—	—	24	−11
	Christian Union [lower-alpha 3]			2	2	2	3	3	—	1	1	3	3	1	2	—	—	—	—	23	−9
	Forum for Democracy			1	2	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	1	1	2	2	—	—	—	17	−69
	Reformed Political Party			—	2	—	3	—	—	—	—	2	2	5	2	—	—	—	—	16	+2
	OPNL		Frisian National Party	—	—	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	0
			Groninger Belang	—	—	—	—	3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	0
			Lokaal Brabant	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	+1
			Lokaal Limburg	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	0
			Party for Zeeland	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—	—	2	0
			Party for the North	—	—	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	−1
			Provinciaal Belang Fryslân	—	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	+1
			Sterk Lokaal Drenthe	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	0
			Sterk Lokaal Flevoland	—	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	New
		Total		1	1	5	0	4	2	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	17	+2
	Volt Netherlands			1	—	—	2	1	—	1	2	1	2	—	1	2	—	—	—	13	New
	50PLUS			—	1	—	1	—	1	1	2	—	1	—	1	—	—	—	—	8	−9
	Windward Islands People's Movement			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	5	—	5	+1
	Democratic Party of Sint Eustatius			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4	4	−1
	Bonaire Democratic Party			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	—	—	3	0
	Bonaire Patriotic Union			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	2	0
	Bonaire People's Movement			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	2	−2
	Independent Jaap Kos			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	—	—	1	New
	Movement 21			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1	—	—	1	New
	DENK			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	−4
	Saba Labour Party			—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0	−1
Total				43	41	43	55	43	47	55	55	47	49	39	55	25	9	5	5	616	+27
Weight per vote [12]				117	109	153	388	139	240	478	537	252	283	100	692	20	27	4	7
Total weighted votes				5,031	4,469	6,579	21,340	5,977	11,280	26,290	29,535	11,844	13,867	3,900	38,060	500	243	20	35	178,970	+5,295

Participating parties

The following parties were due to participate in the 2023 Senate election: ^[13]

List	Party			Lead candidate	2019 result
1		Forum for Democracy	FvD	Johan Dessing	15.87% (12 seats)
2		People's Party for Freedom and Democracy	VVD	Edith Schippers	15.11% (12 seats)
3		Christian Democratic Appeal	CDA	Theo Bovens	11.41% (9 seats)
4		GroenLinks [lower-alpha 1]	GL	Paul Rosenmöller	11.18% (8 seats)
5		Democrats 66	D66	Paul van Meenen	8.75% (7 seats)
6		Labour Party [lower-alpha 1]	PvdA	Mei Li Vos	8.62% (6 seats)
7		Party for Freedom	PVV	Marjolein Faber	6.53% (5 seats)
8		Socialist Party	SP	Tiny Kox	5.88% (4 seats)
9		Christian Union	CU	Tineke Huizinga	5.03% (4 seats)
10		Party for the Animals	PvdD	Niko Koffeman	3.78% (3 seats)
11		50PLUS	50+	Martin van Rooijen	3.03% (2 seats)
12		Reformed Political Party	SGP	Peter Schalk	2.60% (2 seats)
13		Independent Politics Netherlands	OPNL	Auke van der Goot	1.31% (1 seat)
14		JA21	JA21	Annabel Nanninga	—
15		Farmer–Citizen Movement	BBB	Ilona Lagas	—
16		Volt Netherlands	VOLT	Gaby Perin-Gopie	—

Seat projections

The table and graphs below show seat projections for the Senate election. Projections before the provincial and electoral college elections on 15 March are based on opinion polling for the provincial elections. The 15 March projection is based on exit polls of the provincial elections, while the 19 March projection by ANP is based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections. ^[14]

All coalition parties (VVD, D66, CDA and CU) are expected to lose seats. The Farmer–Citizen Movement (BBB) is projected to become the largest party in the Senate with 17 seats. The alliance of PvdA and GroenLinks is expected to gain one seat, while Forum for Democracy is projected to drop from 12 down to 2 seats.

Projections in November 2022 predicted a drop to just 23 seats for the coalition, then rose to a peak of 28 in late February 2023, followed by a drop down to 22 after the provincial elections; 16 seats short of a majority in the Senate (38 seats needed). A majority could be reached with support from BBB. The projected 15 seats of the GroenLinks–PvdA alliance will be insufficient to reach a majority, and the support of at least one other opposition party would be required.

Seat projections for the 2023 Senate election

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	BBB	GL	PvdA	VVD	CDA	D66	PVV	PvdD	SP	JA21	FvD	CU	50+	SGP	OPNL	Volt	Denk	Others	Ref
2023 election	30 May 2023	N/A	16	7	7	10	6	5	4	3	3	3	2	3	1	2	1	2	0	0	[15]
ANP	19 Mar 2023	N/A [lower-alpha 4]	17	8	7	10	5	5	5	4	3	3	2	2	1	1	1	1	0	0	[16]
Ipsos	15 Mar 2023	N/A [lower-alpha 5]	15	8	7	10	5	6	4	4	3	3	2	3	1	1	1	2	0	0	[17]
Ipsos	10–14 Mar 2023	2,002	13	8	6	12	5	4	8	4	5	3	2	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	[18]
Peil.nl	10–11 Mar 2023	3,000+	12	14		12	4	7	8	4	3	3	2	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	[19]
I&O	2–6 Mar 2023	8,196	13	14		10	3	5	7	5	4	5	2	2	0	2	1	2	0	0	[20]
Peil.nl	3–4 Mar 2023	3,000+	10	14		12	5	7	8	3	4	3	3	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	[21]
Ipsos	17–27 Feb 2023	5,291	9	8	5	15	5	6	9	4	5	3	2	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	[22]
Peil.nl	17–18 Feb 2023	3,000+	8	13		13	5	6	9	4	4	5	2	3	0	1	1	1	0	0	[23]
Ipsos	10–13 Feb 2023	1,961	8	6	5	15	5	7	9	4	4	3	2	2	0	2	1	1	1	0	[24]
Peil.nl	27–28 Jan 2023	3,000+	7	13		12	4	6	9	4	3	6	3	3	0	2	1	2	0	0	[25]
Peil.nl	11–12 Nov 2022	3,000+	6	13		11	3	6	10	4	4	7	2	3	—	—	—	—	—	6	[26]
2019 election	27 May 2019	N/A	—	8	6	12	9	7	5	3	4	—	12	4	2	2	1	—	0	0

Results

As projected, the Farmer–Citizen Movement became the largest party, winning 16 seats (as opposed to the projected 17). Strategic voting of D66 and VVD electors resulted in extra seats for their coalition partners CDA and CU. ^[27] Moreover, compared to the projections, GroenLinks lost one seat to Volt as GroenLinks elector Debora Fernald voted for Volt. ^[28]

With the coalition parties winning 24 seats in the Senate, an additional 14 opposition votes are necessary for a 38 vote majority. Support from either BBB (16) or GroenLinks–PvdA (14) suffices. ^[29]

Party		Unweighted vote			Weighted vote			Seats
		Votes	Deviation	%	Votes	%	±pp	Quotient	Remainder	Total	+/−
	Farmer–Citizen Movement	137	±0	22.24	36,976	20.66	New	15	1	16	New
	People's Party for Freedom and Democracy	67	±0	10.88	22,194	12.40	−2.71	9	1	10	−2
	GroenLinks	55	−4	8.93	17,313	9.67	−1.51	7	0	7	−1
	Labour Party	68	+17	11.04	15,862	8.86	+0.24	6	1	7	+1
	Christian Democratic Appeal	47	+2	7.63	13,136	7.34	−4.07	5	1	6	−3
	Democrats 66	37	+1	6.01	11,144	6.23	−2.52	4	1	5	−2
	Party for Freedom	34	±0	5.52	10,922	6.10	−0.43	4	0	4	−1
	Party for the Animals	27	±0	4.38	8,560	4.78	+1.00	3	0	3	0
	JA21	24	±0	3.90	8,289	4.63	New	3	0	3	New
	Socialist Party	24	±0	3.90	7,404	4.14	−1.74	3	0	3	−1
	Christian Union	23	±0	3.73	6,595	3.68	−1.35	2	1	3	−1
	Forum for Democracy	17	±0	2.76	4,866	2.72	−13.15	2	0	2	−10
	Volt	14	+1	2.27	4,826	2.70	New	2	0	2	New
	Reformed Political Party	17	+1	2.76	4,436	2.48	−0.12	1	1	2	0
	50PLUS	8	±0	1.30	3,264	1.82	−1.21	1	0	1	−1
	Independent Politics Netherlands	17	±0	2.76	3,183	1.78	+0.47	1	0	1	0
Total		616	+18	100.00	178,970	100.00	—	68	7	75	0
Source: Kiesraad

Notes

1. GroenLinks and the Labour Party took part in the election with separate lists, but intend to form a joint Senate group. ^[1]
2. Includes 3 out of 6 members of the GroenLinks–PvdA group in the Provincial Council of Zeeland.
3. Includes 1 member of the ChristenUnie–SGP group in the Provincial Council of North Brabant.
4. Based on preliminary results of the provincial and electoral college elections, with 99% of votes counted.
5. Based on exit polls of the provincial elections.

References

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24. https://eenvandaag.avrotros.nl/panels/opiniepanel/alle-uitslagen/item/vvd-grootste-in-zetelpeiling-eerste-kamer-bbb-uit-het-niets-op-8-zetels/ ^{[ bare URL ]}
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