Opinion polling for the 2023 Dutch provincial elections

Last updated


In the run-up to the 2023 Dutch provincial elections, various organisations are carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intentions in the Netherlands. In addition to national pollsters such as I&O Research and Ipsos, some local and smaller polling organizations have polled for voting intentions in specific provinces or even cities. The first opinion polls for these elections were conducted in January 2023, with final polls often being released close to the election. The elections were held on the 15th of March 2023. [1]

Contents

National

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD VVD CDA GL PvdA D66 PVV SP CU PvdD 50+ SGP DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
Ipsos 10–14 Mar 20232,0022.4%14.2%6.1%9.4%7.1%5.8%10.2%6.9%2.6%5.1%1.9%1.7%1.1%2.2%4.1%16.4%–2.7%2.2%
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20238,1963%11%5%10%8%7%9%5%4%6%1%3%1%4%6%14%1%3%3%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235,2913.2%18.6%7.1%9.5%6.4%7.5%11.2%6.7%2.9%5.1%1.2%2.3%0.9%1.7%4.0%10.7%0.1%0.9%7.4%
Ipsos 10–13 Feb 20231,9613.2%17.7%6.5%8.2%6.4%8.7%11.5%5.9%3.1%5.3%0.9%2.5%1.2%2.1%4.1%9.5%0.6%2.6%6.2%
I&O Research 10–13 Feb 20232,4893.3%13.3%4.8%10.1%8.1%6.3%10.7%5.2%3.6%6.7%1.0%2.5%1.2%1.9%6.0%11.5%0.4%3.4%1.8%
I&O Research 13–16 Jan 20232,4892.5%14.3%5.3%9.0%6.5%7.5%11.0%6.0%3.4%5.4%0.6%3.5%1.4%2.7%7.0%9.4%0.7%3.6%3.3%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–14.5%14.0%11.1%10.8%8.5%7.8%6.9%5.9%4.9%4.4%3.6%2.5%1.7%did not contest7.0%0.5%

Drenthe

Seats

Due to an increase of population to more than 500.000 in September 2022, the amount of seats in the Provincial Council of Drenthe is set to be expanded from 41 to 43. [2]

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 PvdA FvD VVD CDA GL PVV CU SP D66 SLD [lower-alpha 1] 50+ PvdD SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023688514125222101011150010
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20233094252272421020019002
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–6665433321110did not contest0Tie

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 PvdA FvD VVD CDA GL PVV CU SP D66 SLD [lower-alpha 1] 50+ PvdD SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 202368810.4%2.4%8.3%3.7%5.6%10.7%4.5%5.6%4.3%3.2%1.4%3.4%0.4%2.9%2.4%30.2%0.7%0.0%19.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20233099.2%4.4%11.1%5.6%5.3%13.4%4.8%7.5%5.6%2.0%1.7%4.5%0.9%1.6%2.2%18.7%1.4%0.1%5.3%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–14.1%13.5%13.0%10.5%8.3%7.1%6.8%6.5%5.7%4.1%3.7%3.4%0.8%did not contest2.6%0.6%

Flevoland

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD VVD PVV GL CDA PvdA CU SP 50+ D66 PvdD SGP JA21 BBB BVNL KF [lower-alpha 2] OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023566264523220221370001
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023308276522230331130101
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–864433322221did not contest1 [lower-alpha 3] 2

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD VVD PVV GL CDA PvdA CU SP 50+ D66 PvdD SGP JA21 BBB BVNL KF [lower-alpha 2] OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20235664.8%13.5%8.5%10.8%4.5%6.7%5.2%5.3%1.4%5.7%5.1%3.3%6.8%14.1%2.0%1.7%0.5%0.6%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20233085.2%15.8%12.9%10.0%4.4%5.3%4.4%6.5%1.4%6.7%7.7%3.7%2.4%6.6%–2.3%4.7%2.9%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–17.8%13.2%9.3%8.5%8.3%8.2%7.0%5.8%4.9%4.9%4.4%3.8%did not contest3.8%5.6%

Friesland

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA FvD PvdA VVD FNP GL CU PVV SP D66 PvdD 50+ PBF [lower-alpha 4] JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20236363264222322201210004
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023459525423252220117002
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–8664433322110did not contest02

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA FvD PvdA VVD FNP GL CU PVV SP D66 PvdD 50+ PBF [lower-alpha 4] JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20236367.5%5.4%11.7%9.2%5.1%5.5%4.3%6.8%5.5%4.7%5.4%0.2%2.7%4.4%20.2%0.8%0.6%8.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202345910.2%5.3%10.1%9.2%4.9%6.0%4.8%11.0%5.5%4.6%3.9%0.3%3.6%3.7%14.6%1.4%0.9%4.4%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–16.7%13.4%13.4%9.4%7.9%7.7%6.6%5.8%5.2%4.1%3.2%2.5%1.8%did not contest2.3%3.3%

Gelderland

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 VVD FvD CDA GL PvdA D66 CU PVV SP SGP PvdD 50+ LPG [lower-alpha 5] Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 202364960263334333111412006
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023507913643343220213900Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–8876544333220did not contest0Tie

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 VVD FvD CDA GL PvdA D66 CU PVV SP SGP PvdD 50+ LPG [lower-alpha 5] Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20236499.5%1.5%3.7%10.4%5.3%5.9%5.9%7.1%5.5%6.0%5.6%1.6%1.8%3.1%6.7%19.9%0.4%0.0%9.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202350715.5%2.7%5.4%9.4%6.6%4.8%6.1%7.7%5.2%3.3%4.1%1.2%3.9%2.7%4.7%15.4%–1.2%0.1%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–14.0%13.4%11.6%10.8%8.3%7.2%6.8%6.1%5.8%5.3%4.5%3.8%1.2%did not contest1.3%0.6%

Groningen

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 GL PvdA FvD CU SP VVD CDA GB [lower-alpha 6] D66 PVV PvhN PvdD 50+ SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023558551243212212012010005
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202340445125421342200008003
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–6554443332211did not contest01

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 GL PvdA FvD CU SP VVD CDA GB [lower-alpha 6] D66 PVV PvhN PvdD 50+ SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 202355810.9%9.9%3.8%5.7%8.1%7.7%4.4%3.3%4.1%5.0%3.3%5.4%0.5%2.1%4.0%1.2%19.4%1.0%0.0%8.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20234047.7%10.5%3.5%4.0%9.9%9.1%5.8%3.2%6.5%8.7%5.1%4.8%––1.8%1.2%16.9%–1.2%6.4%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–12.5%12.0%10.2%9.4%8.7%8.5%8.1%7.3%6.6%6.0%4.1%4.1%2.2%did not contest0.4%0.5%

Limburg

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA FvD PVV VVD SP GL PvdA D66 LL [lower-alpha 7] PvdD 50+ CU JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023743321054533020037003
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202351142975344210024002
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–977544332210did not contest02

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA FvD PVV VVD SP GL PvdA D66 LL [lower-alpha 7] PvdD 50+ CU JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20237436.0%5.2%18.7%9.8%8.7%10.1%5.8%6.4%1.6%3.9%1.5%0.6%5.4%12.4%1.2%2.4%6.3%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235118.6%4.6%16.8%12.8%9.6%6.1%7.7%8.4%4.4%2.9%1.4%1.1%5.3%7.5%0.3%2.5%4.0%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–18.7%14.6%13.5%10.2%8.7%8.4%6.5%5.8%4.1%3.8%3.8%1.1%did not contest0.9%4.1%

North Brabant

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 VVD FvD CDA SP D66 GL PVV PvdA 50+ PvdD LB [lower-alpha 8] CU–SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023650823435641421237001
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235061315634821300306005
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–1098555432211did not contest01

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 VVD FvD CDA SP D66 GL PVV PvdA 50+ PvdD LB [lower-alpha 8] CU–SGP Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 202365012.5%3.7%6.2%6.6%5.9%9.0%9.9%7.7%1.9%6.8%3.2%2.7%3.6%5.5%12.4%1.1%1.3%0.1%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202350620.9%1.6%8.8%10.0%5.3%7.7%12.5%4.1%2.5%5.3%1.3%1.3%5.3%–9.9%–3.6%8.4%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–16.2%14.5%13.3%9.2%8.8%8.7%7.6%6.4%4.1%3.7%2.5%1.9%did not contest3.1%1.7%

North Holland

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD GL VVD D66 PvdA CDA PvdD PVV SP CU 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 2023796368461632102346002
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235122611643444111134005
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–999664333111did not contest0Tie

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD GL VVD D66 PvdA CDA PvdD PVV SP CU 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20237966.1%10.1%12.5%7.3%9.4%2.6%9.2%5.8%3.9%2.3%1.1%3.3%5.6%7.6%10.5%0.3%2.7%2.0%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235123.7%11.0%18.5%10.1%6.4%6.2%6.5%7.2%7.0%1.9%2.0%2.3%1.9%5.7%7.1%0.8%1.8%7.5%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–15.33%15.26%14.5%9.9%9.8%6.8%6.1%5.6%5.0%3.1%2.8%2.4%did not contest3.4%0.07%

Amsterdam

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 GL D66 PvdA VVD PvdD FvD DENK SP PVV CDA CU 50+ Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
O&S 25 Feb 20231,24618.3%11.3%17.5%9.5%10.7%1.5%3.5%5.7%2.0%1.0%2.1%–2.9%3.2%4.7%–6.2%0.8%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–23.8%13.6%11.4%10.9%8.7%8.7%6.0%5.0%3.4%2.3%2.1%1.9%did not contest2.2%10.2%

Overijssel

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA FvD VVD GL PvdA CU PVV SP D66 SGP 50+ PvdD Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20237244254333221022212005
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 2023513617422433201119102
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–966544333211did not contest03

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA FvD VVD GL PvdA CU PVV SP D66 SGP 50+ PvdD Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20237247.9%3.7%9.6%8.3%6.7%5.6%6.7%3.8%5.5%3.5%0.1%4.0%4.3%5.2%23.1%0.9%1.1%13.5%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202351311.0%2.5%13.8%7.9%5.1%4.6%7.7%5.8%6.4%3.6%0.2%3.0%2.2%3.5%18.0%2.4%2.4%4.2%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–17.1%13.3%12.9%9.5%8.5%8.3%7.2%5.9%5.8%3.9%3.4%3.0%did not contest1.2%3.8%

South Holland

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD VVD GL D66 PvdA CDA PVV CU 50+ PvdD SP SGP DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20238151755436214221246001
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202350031154337213231034004
Motivaction 1–31 Jan 2023800+184543821342113500Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–111055444322221did not contest01

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 FvD VVD GL D66 PvdA CDA PVV CU 50+ PvdD SP SGP DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20238152.1%11.6%9.4%8.2%8.0%4.8%10.2%3.6%1.9%6.4%4.7%3.8%2.0%4.8%6.8%10.7%0.6%0.4%0.9%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235004.7%17.8%8.5%6.6%6.0%4.8%11.5%4.5%2.4%5.6%3.5%5.6%1.9%1.5%6.0%7.6%0.6%0.8%6.3%
Motivaction 1–31 Jan 2023800+2.5%12.0%7.5%7.8%6.8%5.1%12.7%3.4%1.6%5.4%6.5%3.5%2.3%2.8%5.8%8.9%–5.5%0.7%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–17.4%15.7%9.1%8.5%7.8%7.7%7.0%5.6%4.4%4.4%4.1%3.9%2.7%did not contest1.6%1.7%

Utrecht

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 GL VVD FvD CDA D66 PvdA CU PVV PvdD SP SGP 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20237608602633331200255002
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20235037903532532111133002
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–8865544222111did not contest0Tie

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 GL VVD FvD CDA D66 PvdA CU PVV PvdD SP SGP 50+ DENK Volt JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 202376014.3%11.0%1.6%5.2%11.1%6.4%5.7%6.8%6.4%2.7%3.9%1.0%0.4%4.3%9.1%8.7%0.4%0.7%3.2%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202350313.4%16.3%0.4%5.6%9.6%6.6%5.0%9.8%5.7%3.5%3.1%2.0%1.7%3.3%5.6%5.2%1.5%1.6%2.9%
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–16.1%15.3%11.6%9.9%9.4%7.3%7.3%4.9%4.7%3.9%3.5%2.9%2.1%did not contest1.1%0.8%

Zeeland

Seats

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA SGP FvD VVD PvdA GL PVV PvZ CU 50+ SP D66 PvdD JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20236112615531202222600Tie
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 20232597417532102211300Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–7554422222211did not contest02

Vote Share

Polling firmRelease
date		Sample
size		 CDA SGP FvD VVD PvdA GL PVV PvZ CU 50+ SP D66 PvdD JA21 BBB BVNL OthersLead
I&O Research 2–6 Mar 20236116.0%13.0%2.1%11.8%12.2%7.4%4.0%5.8%1.6%5.2%5.4%5.3%5.0%12.6%2.00.4%0.4%
Ipsos 17–27 Feb 202325915.3%10.0%2.5%15.3%12.2%7.7%5.7%3.3%1.8%4.6%6.3%3.5%3.1%7.6%–1.1%Tie
2019 election 20 Mar 2019–16.3%12.1%11.8%10.3%8.4%5.8%6.2%6.2%5.2%5.1%4.8%3.7%3.5%did not contest0.5%4.2%

Notes

  1. 1 2 Strong Local Drenthe
  2. 1 2 Powerful Flevoland
  3. ↑ DENK won one seat in the 2019 elections, but is not on the ballot in 2023.
  4. 1 2 Provincial Interests Frisia
  5. 1 2 Local Parties Gelderland
  6. 1 2 Groninger Interest
  7. 1 2 Local Limburg
  8. 1 2 Local Brabant

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References

  1. ↑ "Dag van stemming Provinciale Staten" (in Dutch). Kiesraad. Retrieved 4 March 2023.
  2. ↑ "Mogelijk extra zetels voor het Drents Parlement" (in Dutch). Provinciale Staten Drenthe. Retrieved 4 March 2023.
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