Patrick Minford | |
---|---|
Born | Shrewsbury, Shropshire, England | 17 May 1943
Spouse | Rosemary Allcorn (m. 1970) |
Academic career | |
Institution | |
School or tradition | New classical macroeconomics |
Alma mater |
Anthony Patrick Leslie Minford CBE (born 17 May 1943) is a British macroeconomist who is professor of applied economics at Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, a position he has held since 1997. He was Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Liverpool from 1976 to 1997. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the Economists for Brexit group which, in opposition to the consensus view of economists, [1] advocated the UK leaving the European Union and claimed large economic benefits.
Born in Shrewsbury, Minford was educated at Horris Hill School, Winchester College, Balliol College, Oxford (BA), and the London School of Economics (MSc; PhD). [2] He is the elder brother of John Minford, who is an academic and translator of Classical Chinese. He worked at the Ministry of Overseas Development and then as an economic adviser to the Ministry of Finance of Malawi. He then took a position as an economic adviser to HM Treasury's External Division. [3] He was appointed as economics fellow at Manchester University in 1974, becoming editor at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in 1975, where he began to build the so-called Liverpool Model with Kent Matthews.
Minford and his research team at the University of Liverpool created the Liverpool Model, the first operational rational expectations model of any economy. [4] [5] [6] [7] This work was concurrent with the early efforts of Fair and Anderson [8] to simulate large nonlinear rational expectations models; it was the first to apply the extended path algorithm (see Fair and Taylor) [9] to a full macro model estimated under rational expectations; and was at the forefront of what came to be known as the 'rational expectations revolution'. At this time adaptive expectations was the dominant model of expectations formation and rational expectations was greeted with incredulity. [10] Other work focused on the exchange rate, carrying out model simulations to evaluate the role of floating versus various fixed rate proposals. [11]
More recently, work by Minford and co-authors at Cardiff has focused on indirect inference methods and numerous applied studies of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. These examine modern controversies including bank regulation, quantitative easing, and monetary policy more generally. [12] [13] Recent monetary policy proposals suggested by this research are the introduction of price level targeting and nominal GDP targeting. [14]
Minford gained prominence in 1981 when 364 leading economists published a statement criticising Margaret Thatcher's economic policies; Minford replied by defending the Government in The Times . Thatcher subsequently wrote a letter to Minford to congratulate him. Minford was a supporter of the theories of Milton Friedman, a prominent member of the Mont Pelerin Society (MPS) founded in 1947 by a group of 36 scholars meeting in Mont Pelerin, Switzerland.
Rational expectations work at Liverpool was used to help craft 1980s Conservative Government policies on inflation (UK monetarism and its link with fiscal policy). [15] [16] Work by Minford's team at Liverpool was also influential on unemployment policy, especially labour market liberalisation, where the Liverpool Model was the first model to develop a 'supply side' designed to explain the underlying trend or 'natural' unemployment rate. [17] [18] Minford said in November 2015 that running simulations of leaving that EU that "the first thing that comes out is an 8% drop the cost of living on day one." [19] Although this did not occur, Minford blames the volatility the economy since Brexit for making it difficult to find the impact. [20]
Work by Minford’s Liverpool team on exchange rates was influential in the 1990s Exchange Rate Mechanism debate and the 2000s debate over joining the euro. [21] [22] Minford was against Nigel Lawson's policy of pound sterling shadowing the Deutschmark. He was also against Britain joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism because he thought it was having a bad effect on recovering from recession and keeping down interest rates. [23]
A confirmed eurosceptic, he is a supporter of the Better Off Out campaign to leave the European Union because he believes that the net economic costs to Britain of its policies are substantial. He argues that they are in most respects contrary to free market principles and that British citizens had no power to alter them. [24] In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the Economists for Brexit group which supported the referendum campaign for the UK to leave the European Union. [25] He believes that Brexit could increase GDP by 6.8%, [26] [27] and could reduce prices for British consumers. [28]
Minford favoured the Community Charge or poll tax as a way of keeping down local government spending to levels chosen by local citizens. [29] In 1988 he was appointed a board member of the Merseyside Development Corporation but resigned, saying it had a negative effect on job creation. He is on the advisory council of Reform. [30]
Minford was interviewed about the rise of Thatcherism for the 2006 BBC TV documentary series Tory! Tory! Tory! Minford was also a guest at the funeral of Margaret Thatcher in 2013. [31]
Minford was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire in the 1996 New Year Honours for services to economics. [32]
Keynesian economics are the various macroeconomic theories and models of how aggregate demand strongly influences economic output and inflation. In the Keynesian view, aggregate demand does not necessarily equal the productive capacity of the economy. It is influenced by a host of factors that sometimes behave erratically and impact production, employment, and inflation.
Macroeconomics is a branch of economics that deals with the performance, structure, behavior, and decision-making of an economy as a whole. This includes regional, national, and global economies. Macroeconomists study topics such as output/GDP and national income, unemployment, price indices and inflation, consumption, saving, investment, energy, international trade, and international finance.
In economics, inflation is a general increase in the prices of goods and services in an economy. This is usually measured using a consumer price index (CPI). When the general price level rises, each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services; consequently, inflation corresponds to a reduction in the purchasing power of money. The opposite of CPI inflation is deflation, a decrease in the general price level of goods and services. The common measure of inflation is the inflation rate, the annualized percentage change in a general price index. As prices faced by households do not all increase at the same rate, the consumer price index (CPI) is often used for this purpose.
Monetarism is a school of thought in monetary economics that emphasizes the role of policy-makers in controlling the amount of money in circulation. It gained prominence in the 1970s but was mostly abandoned as a direct guidance to monetary policy during the following decade because of the rise of inflation targeting through movements of the official interest rate.
Rational expectations is an economic theory that seeks to infer the macroeconomic consequences of individuals' decisions based on all available knowledge. It assumes that individuals' actions are based on the best available economic theory and information.
New Keynesian economics is a school of macroeconomics that strives to provide microeconomic foundations for Keynesian economics. It developed partly as a response to criticisms of Keynesian macroeconomics by adherents of new classical macroeconomics.
This aims to be a complete article list of economics topics:
A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices.
Neutrality of money is the idea that a change in the stock of money affects only nominal variables in the economy such as prices, wages, and exchange rates, with no effect on real variables, like employment, real GDP, and real consumption. Neutrality of money is an important idea in classical economics and is related to the classical dichotomy. It implies that the central bank does not affect the real economy by creating money. Instead, any increase in the supply of money would be offset by a proportional rise in prices and wages. This assumption underlies some mainstream macroeconomic models. Others like monetarism view money as being neutral only in the long run.
John Brian Taylor is the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, and the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at Stanford University's Hoover Institution.
Thomas John Sargent is an American economist and the W.R. Berkley Professor of Economics and Business at New York University. He specializes in the fields of macroeconomics, monetary economics, and time series econometrics. As of 2024, he ranks as the 38th most cited economist in the world. He was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics in 2011 together with Christopher A. Sims for their "empirical research on cause and effect in the macroeconomy".
Edmund Strother Phelps is an American economist and the recipient of the 2006 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.
The policy-ineffectiveness proposition (PIP) is a new classical theory proposed in 1975 by Thomas J. Sargent and Neil Wallace based upon the theory of rational expectations, which posits that monetary policy cannot systematically manage the levels of output and employment in the economy.
Olivier Jean Blanchard is a French economist and professor. He is Robert M. Solow Professor Emeritus of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics, and as the C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
David Ernest William Laidler is an English/Canadian economist who has been one of the foremost scholars of monetarism. He published major economics journal articles on the topic in the late 1960s and early 1970s. His book, The Demand for Money, was published in four editions from 1969 through 1993, initially setting forth the stability of the relationship between income and the demand for money and later taking into consideration the effects of legal, technological, and institutional changes on the demand for money. The book has been translated into French, Spanish, Italian, Japanese, and Chinese.
Georgios Alogoskoufis is a professor of economics at the Athens University of Economics and Business since 1990. He was a member of the Hellenic Parliament from September 1996 till October 2009 and served as Greece's Minister of Economy and Finance from March 2004 till January 2009.
Phillip David Cagan was an American scholar and author. He was Professor of Economics Emeritus at Columbia University.
Guillermo Antonio Calvo is an Argentine-American economist who is director of Columbia University's mid-career Program in Economic Policy Management in their School of International and Public Affairs (SIPA).
The neoclassical synthesis (NCS), or neoclassical–Keynesian synthesis is an academic movement and paradigm in economics that worked towards reconciling the macroeconomic thought of John Maynard Keynes in his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1936) with neoclassical economics.
Macroeconomic theory has its origins in the study of business cycles and monetary theory. In general, early theorists believed monetary factors could not affect real factors such as real output. John Maynard Keynes attacked some of these "classical" theories and produced a general theory that described the whole economy in terms of aggregates rather than individual, microeconomic parts. Attempting to explain unemployment and recessions, he noticed the tendency for people and businesses to hoard cash and avoid investment during a recession. He argued that this invalidated the assumptions of classical economists who thought that markets always clear, leaving no surplus of goods and no willing labor left idle.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)