Polish withdrawal from the European Union

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Poland's location in the European Union EU-Poland.svg
Poland's location in the European Union

A Polish withdrawal from the European Union, or Polexit (a portmanteau of "Poland" and "exit"), is the name given to a hypothetical Polish withdrawal from the European Union. The term was coined after Brexit, the process of Britain's withdrawal from the EU which took place between 2016 and 2020. Opinion polls held in the country, between 2016 and 2021, indicated majority support for continued membership of the European Union (EU). A 2022 survey indicated that "[at] least eight-in-ten adults in Poland" believed that the EU "promotes peace, democratic values and prosperity". [1] The 2023 Polish parliamentary election was won by a coalition of predominantly pro-EU parties. [2]

Contents

History

Poland joined the European Union in 2004 through the Treaty of Accession 2003. At the time the EU included fifteen countries, mostly from Western, Northern and Southern Europe (see the Maastricht Treaty); the Treaty of Accession 2003 would accept ten more, mostly from Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic states.

In 2016, following continued political pressures from British Eurosceptics, Britain conducted a referendum on withdrawal from the EU. After the referendum had narrowly favored withdrawal, international media started speculating about the prospects of a similar event taking place in Poland (a so-called Polexit). [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]

In 2019, the Supreme Court of Poland warned that the judicial reform planned by the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party could result in Poland having to leave the EU, as it undermines the independence of the judiciary and challenges the principle of the primacy of EU law, which is a key condition for membership that Poland had signed up to in its Treaty of Accession. [8]

On 22 November 2020, Do Rzeczy , a Polish weekly newspaper, published a front-page article called "Polexit: We have the right to talk about it". [7]

In September 2021, Ryszard Terlecki, Deputy Marshal of the Sejm and head of the Law and Justice parliamentary caucus, said that his party '[wanted] to remain in the EU and to have a cooperative relationship', but that the EU 'should be acceptable to us'. He added that if things were to go the way they were likely to go, they would have to search for a "drastic solution", further contending that the British left the EU because "the dictatorship of the Brussels bureaucracy did not suit them". This led to some people saying Terlecki had thus called for a Polexit. [9] [10]

October 2021 Constitutional Tribunal ruling

The government of Poland has been making controversial changes to the Polish judiciary, in particular as related to the Polish Constitutional Tribunal, the National Council of the Judiciary, the Supreme Court as well as its Disciplinary Chamber. These have attracted scrutiny from the European Court of Justice, which has been issuing rulings attempting to stop these changes that it sees as undermining the rule of law and judicial independence. [11] [12] [13] The Tribunal's legitimacy is contested after multiple appointments of judges loyal to the ruling nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party were made, some of which in controversial circumstances. [14] [15]

In March 2021, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki asked the Constitutional Tribunal whether the Polish constitution [lower-alpha 1] is above EU regulations and EU court rulings and whether the European Court of Justice acted beyond the powers granted by the EU treaties when controlling the judicial reforms in Poland, which the government insisted was the case. [16]

On 7 October 2021, Poland's Constitutional Tribunal ruled that some provisions of EU treaties and EU court rulings clashed with the Constitution of Poland, asserting that EU institutions [were acting] beyond the scope of their competences; effectively rejecting the notion of primacy of EU law. [14] [17] BBC News and Foreign Policy reported that this risked Polexit, [17] [18] while the Financial Times called it "legal secession from the EU"; [19] however, The Economist opined that Polexit is unlikely due to this court ruling, instead talking of a "dirty remain". [20]

Public opinion

In the 2003 Polish referendum on joining the EU, 77.6% of voters voted in favor. Poland joined the EU the following year, and since then–according to regular polls conducted by the governmental Centre for Public Opinion Research (CBOS)–no more than a quarter of respondents ever supported leaving, with support gradually waning down to a mere 5% in 2019 and 6% in 2021. [21] For more results, see the table below.

Summary of chosen [lower-alpha 2] public opinion polls on possible Polish withdrawal from the EU
DateLeaveRemainAbstain [lower-alpha 3] UndecidedSource
May 2016 [lower-alpha 4] [lower-alpha 5] 22%--- Ipsos [22]
September 2016 [lower-alpha 6] 8%N/AN/AN/A OKO.press / Ipsos [23]
January 2018 [lower-alpha 6] 10%N/AN/AN/AOKO.press / Ipsos [24]
September 201811%83%-3% TVN / Kantar Millward Brown [25]
October 20188%84%-8% Rzeczpospolita / IBRiS  [ pl ] [26]
December 2018 [lower-alpha 6] 8%N/AN/AN/AOKO.press / Ipsos [24]
March 2019 [lower-alpha 5] -87%-- Globsec [27]
September 201913%75%5%7%Kantar [28]
January 20206%89%-5%TVN / Kantar Media [29]
November 20208%87%-5%TVN / Kantar Media [30]
November 2020 [lower-alpha 6] 7%N/AN/AN/AOKO.press / Ipsos [31]
November 2020 [lower-alpha 5] 11%81.1%-7.9%Rzeczpospolita / IBRiS [32]
July 202116.9%62.6%-20%Rzeczpospolita / SWR [33]
September 20217%81%-12%TVN / Kantar Media [34]
September 2021-88%-- Gazeta Wyborcza / OKO.press / Ipsos [35]
September 2021 [lower-alpha 5] 16.2%64.5%7.2%12.1%Rzeczpospolita / SWR [36]
October 2021 [lower-alpha 5] 14.8%64.4%6.7%14.1%Rzeczpospolita / SWR [37]

However, there is some support for conducting a second referendum on EU membership: in an October 2021 poll conducted for Rzeczpospolita , 42.6% of respondents were for, while 36.9% were against. [37]

In response to the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal earlier that month (mentioned above), more than 100,000 Poles took part in a 10 October 2021 demonstrations in support of Poland's continued membership, including 80,000-100,000 protesters in Warsaw alone. [38]

Endorsement of Polexit by political parties

In general, Eurosceptic parties in Poland hold right-wing political views. For instance, the Confederation Liberty and Independence (Konfederacja) party has called for a withdrawal from the European Union on several occasions, [39] [40] and its electorate is among the most Eurosceptic on the Polish political arena, with a quarter of voters for the party endorsing Polexit, according to a November 2020 poll. [31] Similarly, members of United Poland (Solidarna Polska), a junior coalition partner for PiS, have questioned whether the EU is appropriate for Polish interests, [41] [42] [43] and the party's head, Zbigniew Ziobro, said he would not approve any constitutional change anchoring Poland in the European Union; [44] however, they also said that if the European Union institutions get "appropriately" reformed, they might agree to stay. [45] [46] PolEXIT  [ pl ], which emerged on the base of the Congress of the New Right and is centered around Stanisław Żółtek, a former MEP from that party and candidate for 2020 presidential election, is also arguing for secession from the European Union. It is not currently represented in either Polish or European parliament. In 2020, Żółtek received 0,23% of votes in the presidential elections.

Law and Justice (PiS) and Kukiz'15 are also Eurosceptic parties. [47] [48] Critics, including Donald Tusk (former President of the European Council as well as leader of the Civic Platform), and currently the Prime Minister of Poland, warn that PiS' actions will eventually lead to Polexit and will jeopardise Poland's future in the EU, [38] [49] though Jarosław Kaczyński, its leader, and former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki both dismissed the allegations that PiS is preparing for it as "fake news", [26] [50] [51] [52] while Paweł Kukiz said that "no Polexit would happen because there's no possibility for the EU to expel us". [53] Similar remarks were made by Przemysław Czarnek, the former minister of education. [54]

There are currently no left-wing, left-of-centre or centrist parties represented in parliament endorsing Polexit, and their electorate's support for withdrawal from the European Union is negligible. [31] The somewhat conservative Polish People's Party (PSL) and Poland 2050 are also known as a pro-European political organisations.

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Articles of the Constitution regarding the dispute between the European Union and Poland triggered in the ruling include Articles 2, 7, 8, 90 (as regards relations between EU law and the Polish Constitution) and Articles 144, 178, 179, 186, 190 (as regards the relations of EU law and EU caselaw with Polish judiciary)
  2. ↑ CBOS and Eurobarometer polls are not included here. Polls that merely asked whether Poles like the EU, instead of whether they should leave it/they would vote to leave it, have been excluded from the table.
  3. ↑ Respondents not given abstention as an option initially
  4. ↑ One month before the British referendum on European Union membership.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 Respondents were not asked about leaving or remaining in the EU. The question was, were they to vote again to join the EU, would they vote in favour or against joining.
  6. 1 2 3 4 The question being asked in OKO.press polls was not whether to leave or remain, but rather how Poland should interact with the European Union, with three options: closer integration of the member states, limiting cooperation to economic affairs and granting more independence to member states, or quitting the EU

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References

  1. ↑ "Despite recent political clashes, most people in Poland and Hungary see the EU favorably". Pew Research. 18 October 2022. Retrieved 25 February 2024.
  2. ↑ "Poland's parliament elects Donald Tusk as prime minister". Al Jazeera. 11 December 2023. Retrieved 25 February 2024. Tusk elected prime minister [..] after a national election was won by a coalition of pro-EU parties
  3. ↑ "Poland: How feasible is a 'Polexit?'". Deutsche Welle. 13 December 2017.
  4. ↑ Shotter, James (6 December 2020). "Poland's EU budget veto stokes talk of 'Polexit'". Financial Times. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  5. ↑ "Poles voice fears of 'Polexit' as govt defies EU over budget". AP NEWS. 9 December 2020. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  6. ↑ "Polexit: 3 reasons why Poland will quit the EU and 3 why it won't". POLITICO. 30 November 2020. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
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  9. ↑ Kaczyński, Piotr Maciej (10 September 2021). "Poland's ruling PiS sends mixed signals on 'Polexit'". Euractiv . Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  10. ↑ Skolimowski, Piotr (9 September 2021). "Polish Ruling Party Official Backpedals EU Exit Suggestion". Bloomberg. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  13. ↑ Baczynska, Gabriela; Wlodarczak-semczuk, Anna (6 October 2021). "EU court voids decision by Polish judge found to lack independence". Reuters. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  19. ↑ The Editorial Board (10 October 2021). "A legal secession from the EU will cost Poland dearly". Financial Times. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  24. 1 2 "Europejczycy, w tym Polacy, chcą federalizacji Unii. Tak mówią dane". oko.press. 17 February 2019. Retrieved 31 October 2021.
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  28. ↑ "Polacy wcale nie chcą Polexitu! Fałszywa sensacja po sondażu Eurobarometru". oko.press. 21 December 2019. Retrieved 31 October 2021.
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  31. 1 2 3 "Aż 1/3 Polaków wierzy w antyunijną propagandę [SONDAŻ] - OKO.press". oko.press. 5 December 2020. Retrieved 31 October 2021.
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  33. ↑ "Sondaż: Prawie 17 proc. Polaków za polexitem". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). Retrieved 12 October 2021.
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  35. ↑ "Prawie 90 procent Polaków nie chce wychodzić z Unii Europejskiej". Polska Agencja Prasowa SA (in Polish). 5 October 2021. Retrieved 12 October 2021.
  36. ↑ Wanat, Zosia (8 October 2021). "Polish opposition sounds Polexit alarm and calls for protests". Politico. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  37. 1 2 "Sondaż: Czy Polacy chcieliby ponownego referendum ws. obecności w UE? Jak by zagłosowali?". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 17 October 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  38. 1 2 Wlodarczak-Semczuk, Anna; Pempel, Kacper (11 October 2021). ""Brexit can happen here", Poles demonstrate in support of EU membership". Reuters. Retrieved 12 October 2021.
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  42. ↑ "Janusz Kowalski: jeśli będziemy jeszcze bardziej tracić, zagłosuję za polexitem" [Janusz Kowalski: If we lose even more, I will vote for Polexit]. polsatnews.pl (in Polish). Polsat News. 20 September 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  43. ↑ "Janusz Kowalski: Referendum polexitowe może być w 2027". Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). 3 November 2021. Retrieved 3 November 2021.
  44. ↑ "Ziobro odpowiada na propozycję Tuska: Solidarna Polska nigdy takiej koncepcji nie poprze" [Ziobro responds to Tusk's proposal: Solidarity Poland will never support such a concept]. Onet Wiadomości (in Polish). 25 September 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  45. ↑ "Polska powinna wyjść z Unii Europejskiej? Jaki opowiada o szczególnej sytuacji" [Should Poland leave the European Union? Jaki talks about a special situation]. Wprost (in Polish). 9 September 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  46. ↑ Dobrosz-Oracz, Justyna (15 September 2021). "Ziobryści o polexicie: W ciągu 10 lat będzie pole do referendum" [Ziobroites about Polexit: There will be grounds for a referendum in 10 years]. Gazeta Wyborcza. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  51. ↑ "Morawiecki: Opozycja próbuje insynuować nam, że chcemy doprowadzić do osłabienia UE" [Morawiecki: The opposition is trying to insinuate that we want to weaken the EU]. Dziennik Gazeta Prawna (in Polish). 12 October 2021. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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  53. ↑ "Paweł Kukiz: Polexitu nie będzie. Totalna opozycja tumani naród" [Paweł Kukiz: There will be no Polexit. The total opposition deceives the nation]. Rzeczpospolita (in Polish). Retrieved 17 October 2021.
  54. ↑ ""Histeria, którą ja nazywam polexitem urojonym". Czarnek o demonstracjach po orzeczeniu TK" ["The hysteria which I call imaginary polexit." Czarnek on demonstrations after the ruling of the Constitutional Tribunal]. PolskieRadio.pl. Retrieved 17 October 2021.
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