 | This article relies largely or entirely on a single source .(November 2020) |
The six-year itch, according to political scientists, is the pattern which takes place during a US president's sixth year in office. This year is characterized by the nation's disgruntled attitude towards the president and their political party. During this time, there is a midterm election and the incumbent President's party usually loses a significant number of seats in Congress.
Prior to Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party gain seats in one house, while losing seats in the other house. Presidents before Reconstruction whose party had this occur:
Democratic-Republican Thomas Jefferson was the only two-term president before Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1806, his party gained 2 seats in the House and gained 1 seat in the Senate. Also, the Republican Party saw strong gains in the midterms of 1866, although Andrew Johnson, a former Democrat who had been elected as Abraham Lincoln's vice president on the National Union ticket, was president at the time. The Republicans gained 40 seats in the House and 18 seats in the Senate (the largest swing in the history of the Senate).
After Reconstruction, the six-year itch saw the president's party consistently lose seats in both houses. Presidents since Reconstruction whose party had this occur:
*: The losses by the president's party resulted in the other party gaining control of this chamber.
^: Although the president's party lost seats, this chamber was already under the control of the opposition party.
Democrat Bill Clinton is the only two-term president since Reconstruction not to have this occur. In 1998, his party gained 5 seats in the House of Representatives and the Senate was unchanged (the smallest swing in the Senate's history). His party was uniquely in the minority in both houses of Congress and remained so after the elections.
On only three occasions has the six-year itch caused the president's party to lose control of Congress completely: Grover Cleveland in 1894, Woodrow Wilson in 1918, and George W. Bush in 2006. Conversely, only two presidents saw their parties maintain control of Congress even after the six-year itch: Democrats Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1938 and Harry S. Truman in 1950. Only two presidents already had a Congress that was completely dominated by the opposition party by the time of the six-year itch: Republicans Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1958 and Richard Nixon (Gerald Ford at the time of the elections) in 1974.
In addition, only one president has ever lost control of one house while keeping the other: Republican Ulysses S. Grant in 1874, who lost the House but kept the Senate. Republican Ronald Reagan lost the Senate in 1986 due to the six-year itch, but his party never controlled the House during his presidency. Lastly, the only president to have lost one house of Congress due to the six-year itch after already losing the other one was Democrat Barack Obama in 2014 (in both cases, their respective parties lost the Senate while the House was already under the control of the opposition party).
Overall, the six-year itch phenomena may be viewed as an extension of "the midterm effect" where a president's party almost always loses seats in midterm elections. [1] Since Reconstruction, only five presidents have ever seen their party gain seats in a midterm election: Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934, Bill Clinton in 1998, George W. Bush in 2002, Donald Trump in 2018, and Joe Biden in 2022. Some of these exceptions have occurred alongside major events, such as the Great Depression and September 11 attacks.
The losses suffered during a president's second midterm tend to be more pronounced than during their first midterm. [2]
Midterm elections in the United States are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office, on Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Federal offices that are up for election during the midterms include all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate.
The 1998 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 3, 1998, to elect U.S. Representatives to serve in the 106th United States Congress. They were part of the midterm elections held during President Bill Clinton's second term. They were a major disappointment for the Republicans, who were expecting to gain seats due to the embarrassment Clinton suffered during the Monica Lewinsky scandal and the "six-year itch" effect observed in most second-term midterm elections. However, the Republicans lost five seats to the Democrats, although they retained a narrow majority in the House. A wave of Republican discontent with Speaker Newt Gingrich prompted him to resign shortly after the election; he was replaced by Congressman Dennis Hastert of Illinois.
The 1962 United States elections were held on November 6 to elect the members of the 88th United States Congress. The election occurred in the middle of Democratic President John F. Kennedy's term. The Republican Party picked up four seats in the House of Representatives. Still, the Democrats retained strong majorities in both houses of Congress.
The 2010 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010, in the middle of Democratic President Barack Obama's first term. Republicans ended unified Democratic control of Congress and the presidency by winning a majority in the House of Representatives and gained seats in the Senate despite Democrats holding Senate control.
The 1948 United States elections were held on November 2, 1948. The election took place during the beginning stages of the Cold War. Democratic incumbent President Harry S. Truman was elected to a full term in an upset, defeating Republican nominee New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey and two erstwhile Democrats. The Democrats won back control of Congress from the Republicans. Until 2020, Democrats would never again flip a chamber of Congress in a presidential election cycle.
The 2002 United States elections were held on November 5, in the middle of Republican President George W. Bush's first term. Republicans won unified control of Congress, picking up seats in both chambers of Congress, making Bush the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1934 to gain seats in both houses of Congress. In the gubernatorial elections, Democrats won a net gain of one seat. The elections were held just a little under fourteen months after the September 11 attacks. Thus, the elections were heavily overshadowed by the War on Terror.
The 2000 United States elections were held on November 7, 2000. Republican Governor George W. Bush of Texas defeated Democratic Vice President Al Gore of Tennessee in the presidential election. Republicans retained control of both houses of Congress, giving the party unified control of Congress and the presidency for the first time since the 1954 elections.
The 1998 United States elections were held on November 3, 1998, in the middle of Democratic President Bill Clinton's second term and during impeachment proceedings against the president as a result of the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal. Though Republicans retained control of both chambers of Congress, the elections were unusual because this is the first midterm since 1934 that the president's party gained seats in the House of Representatives.
The 1994 United States elections were held on November 8, 1994. The elections occurred in the middle of Democratic President Bill Clinton's first term in office, and elected the members of 104th United States Congress. The elections have been described as the "Republican Revolution" because the Republican Party captured unified control of Congress for the first time since 1952. Republicans picked up eight seats in the Senate and won a net of 54 seats in the House of Representatives. Republicans also picked up a net of ten governorships and took control of many state legislative chambers. This is the first midterm election since 1946 in which the Republicans ended unified Democratic control of Congress in a midterm election under a Democratic president.
The 1986 United States elections were held on November 4 and elected the members of the 100th United States Congress. The elections occurred in the middle of Republican President Ronald Reagan's second term. Democrats regained unified control of both chambers of Congress for the first time since the 1980 elections.
The 2014 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014, in the middle of Democratic President Barack Obama's second term. A typical six-year itch midterm election suffered by most second-term presidents, this election saw the Republican Party retaining control of the House of Representatives and winning control of the Senate, while furthering their gains in the governorships and state legislatures. Because of these Republican gains, the election was commonly cited as a "red wave" election.
The 1970 United States elections were held on November 3, and elected the members of the 92nd United States Congress. The election took place during the Vietnam War, in the middle of Republican President Richard Nixon's first term. The Democratic Party defended their control of Congress by retaining its Senate majority and increasing its majority in the House of Representatives.
The 1978 United States elections were held on November 7, 1978, to elect the members of the 96th United States Congress. The election occurred in the middle of Democratic President Jimmy Carter's term. Democrats retained control of both houses of Congress.
The 1942 United States elections were held on November 3, 1942, and elected the members of the 78th United States Congress. In Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt's unprecedented third mid-term election and during World War II, the Republican Party picked up seats in both chambers. Still, the Democrats retained control of Congress.
The 1934 United States elections were held on November 6, 1934. The election took place in the middle of Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt's first term, during the Great Depression. In a historic midterm election, the Democrats built on the majorities in both houses of Congress they had won in the previous two elections.
The 2018 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. These midterm elections occurred during Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump's term. Although the Republican Party increased its majority in the Senate, unified Republican control of Congress and the White House was brought to an end when the Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in what was widely characterized as a "blue wave" election as Democrats also gained governorships, other statewide offices, and state legislative chambers.
The 1894 United States elections was held on November 6, and elected the members of the 54th United States Congress. These were mid-term elections during Democratic President Grover Cleveland's second non-consecutive term. The Republican landslide of 1894 marked a realigning election In American politics as the nation moved from the Third Party System that had focused on issues of civil war and reconstruction, and entered the Fourth Party System, known as the Progressive Era, which focused on middle class reforms.
The 1906 United States elections elected the members of the 60th United States Congress. It occurred in the middle of Republican President Theodore Roosevelt's second term, during the Fourth Party System. Republicans retained control of both houses of Congress.
The 1902 United States elections elected the 58th United States Congress, and occurred in the middle of Republican President Theodore Roosevelt's first term, during the Fourth Party System. Roosevelt had become president on September 14, 1901, upon the assassination of his predecessor, William McKinley. Republicans retained a majority in both chambers of Congress, while the Populist Party and Silver Republican Party disappeared from Congress.
The 1874 United States elections occurred in the middle of Republican President Ulysses S. Grant's second term, during the Third Party System. Members of the 44th United States Congress were chosen in this election. The election took place during the Reconstruction Era, and many Southerners were barred from voting. Colorado joined the union during the 44th Congress. Democrats took control of a chamber of Congress for the first time since 1859, winning a huge number of seats from House Republicans. However, the Republicans retained a majority in the Senate. The election marked the first occurrence of the six-year itch phenomenon, in which a president's party lost many Congressional seats during the president's second mid-term election.