2016 The Republicans (France) presidential primary

Last updated
The Republicans presidential primary, 2016
Flag of France.svg
20–27 November 2016 [1] 2021  
 
Francois Fillon 2010 (cropped).jpg
Alain Juppe a Quebec en 2015 (cropped).jpg
Candidate François Fillon Alain Juppé
Party LR LR
Popular vote (1st)1,890,2661,224,855
Share (1st)44.08%28.56%
Popular vote (2nd)2,919,8741,471,898
Share (2nd)66.49%33.51%

Primaire droite & centre de 2017 T1 carte departements & regions.svg
Results of the first round by department and region

Primaire droite & centre de 2017 T2 carte departements & regions.svg
Results of the second round by department and region

Previous UMP nominee

Nicolas Sarkozy

LR nominee

François Fillon

The Republicans held a presidential primary election, officially called the open primary of the right and centre (French : primaire ouverte de la droite et du centre), to select a candidate for the 2017 presidential election. It took place on 20 November 2016, with a runoff on 27 November since no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round. [1] It was the first time an open primary had been held for The Republicans or its predecessor parties. [2]

Contents

In the first round of The Republicans primary on 20 November, François Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Alain Juppé—long held by most opinion polls as the favourite to win the nomination—came in a distant second with 29%. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote.

In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the six departments and similar areas won by Sarkozy in the first round, all switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments and similar areas that originally voted for Juppé, eight switched to Fillon in the second round. The constituency for French residents overseas was won by Juppé in the first round and Fillon in the second round.

Voting procedures

Ballot papers used in the first round Primaire de droite 2016 - 1er tour.jpg
Ballot papers used in the first round

Unlike previous Union for a Popular Movement primaries, this was the first primary to be open to the general public. [2] The first round of voting took place on 20 November 2016. Voting booths were open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. [3] A runoff was held on 27 November after no candidate obtained at least 50% of the vote in the first round. [1]

All registered voters were allowed to vote in the primary, as well as minors whose eighteenth birthday was before 23 April 2017. [4] 10,228 voting booths were established with each person on the voting register attached to an office. [5] To receive a ballot, a voter must pay 2 euros. [6]

People abroad who wanted to vote in The Republicans party were given electronic voting machines to do so. [7]

Candidates

Candidates from The Republicans had to obtain the support of 20 members of the National Assembly, 2,500 party members and 250 elected representatives to participate. [8] For candidates from other parties, the party themselves would decide the conditions for their submission into the primary. [6] Seven candidates were accepted by the High Authority on September 6, 2016: [9]

Validated candidates

Name, ageDetails and notes
Festival automobile international 2015 - Photocall - 026 (cropped 2).jpg Jean-François Copé [1] (60)

Copé announced his candidacy on 14 February 2016 at 20:00 on France 2 – while Nicolas Sarkozy was speaking on TF1 – a few weeks after the release of his book The French Start. After nearly 18 months of media silence, Copé said he was "ready" to return to center stage. Copé was quoted on France 2 as "being very hypocritical to delay unnecessarily", even when a judge's decision on the "sad Bygmalion case" arrived the previous Monday. Copé had been placed under attended witness status and thus escaped indictment.

Francois Fillon 2010.jpg François Fillon [10] (70)

Fillon announced his candidacy in April 2015 by declaring that he is "a candidate to bring a project of rupture and progress around an ambition to make France the first European power in ten years". He announced in January 2016 that he would leave politics if he fails to win the primary. Fillon had also committed, as Alain Juppé did, to serve only one term if he was elected President in 2017.

Foire du livre de Brive 2015 (22269949293).jpg Alain Juppé [11] (79)

Juppé announced his intention to contest the 2016 Republicans (formerly UMP) internal election, which decided who will be the candidate of the right-wing for the 2017 presidential election, on 20 August 2014. The most popular politician in France, he is described by The Daily Telegraph as "a consensual conservative seen as less divisive than Nicolas Sarkozy ". [12] [13]

Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet, 2014.jpg Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet [1] [2] (51)

Kosciusko-Morizet declared her candidacy on 8 March 2016, on the occasion of the International Women's Day, stating that "I think we can finally change politics. I am a candidate to give everyone, every French person, control of their life."

Reunion publique Bruno Le Maire Strasbourg 21 novembre 2014 01 (cropped).jpg Bruno Le Maire [1] [2] (55)

Le Maire officially declared his candidacy at a public meeting in Vesoul on 23 February 2016. "My decision is simple, strong, unwavering. Yes, I am a candidate for president," he said on stage. Le Maire had earlier left little doubt about his participation in the primary. "If I told you that I was not getting ready for the primary, I would be lying. And I do not like to lie," he had said on RTL 4 in January. In the wake of his candidacy, Bruno Le Maire has also released a book about his vision of France entitled Do Not Resign. He already enjoyed broad support, including that of Michel Barnier and Yves Jégo, even as the UDI had not yet decided on its participation in the primary.

Jean-Frederic Poisson (cropped).jpg Jean-Frédéric Poisson [1] (62)

As head of the Christian Democratic Party, he was their candidate in the centre-right's 2016 primary.

Nicolas Sarkozy (2015-10-29) 03 (cropped).jpg Nicolas Sarkozy (70)

Sarkozy announced his intention to contest the primary on 22 August 2016. [14]

Withdrawn candidates

Opinion polls

First round

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Francois Fillon 2010.jpg Foire du livre de Brive 2015 (22269949293).jpg UMP meeting Paris regional elections 2010-03-17 n03.jpg Reunion publique Bruno Le Maire Strasbourg 21 novembre 2014 01 (cropped).jpg Nicolas Sarkozy in 2010.jpg
Fillon
UMP/LR
Juppé
UMP/LR
Kosciusko-Morizet
UMP/LR
Le Maire
UMP/LR
Sarkozy
UMP/LR
Others/Undecided
Le Parisien/i-Télé-CQFD 5–6 Jun 201498813%19%28%40%
Ifop 13–16 Apr 20157045%33%12%42%8%
Ifop [ permanent dead link ]4–9 Jun 20151,8797%42%13%33%5%
Ipsos 25–31 Aug 201551911%40%11%34%4%
Ifop 3–4 Sep 20151,0799%30%3%21%37%
Ifop 25 Sep–9 Oct 20155,2208%37%2%6%37%10%
BVA/Presse Régionale 6–15 Oct 201511,2448%31%2%11%38%10%
Ifop 9 Oct-16 Nov 20155,2749%35%2%9%34%11%
Opinion Way 26 Oct–17 Nov 201540021%29%10%11%29%
Ifop [ permanent dead link ]16 Dec 2015–7 Jan 20165,98912%38%4%12%29%5%
Ifop 11-22 Jan 20164,97412%41%2%10%30%5%
Ipsos-Sopra Steria 22-31 Jan 20161,3339%44%2%11%32%2%
BVA/Orange et iTélé 11-12 Feb 20161,05311%47%9%10%11%12%
Ifop 1-15 Feb 20164,96711%39%3%11%32%7%
Elabe/BFMTV 16 Feb-16 Mar 20165,00111%41%4%13%23%8%
Odoxa/Le Parisien 18 Feb-10 Mar 20164,0369%41%3%16%23%8%
Ifop 23 Feb-18 Mar 20168,0908%38%3%16%27%8%
Ifop 29 Mar-14 Apr 20165,77515%37%3%12%26%7%
Odoxa/Le Parisien 17 Mar-29 Apr 20161,6609%41%4%15%24%7%
Ifop 28 Apr-20 May 20168,60412%35%4%13%27%9%
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680813%39%3%13%27%5%
Odoxa 9 Jun 20161,0339%28%7%54%2%
Ifop 25 May–17 Jun 20161,03711%35%4%13%28%9%
Ipsos 17–26 Jun 20161,2349%38%2%16%30%5%
Elabe 17 May–29 Jun 201662411%39%2%12%29%7%
Harris Interactive Archived 2016-09-20 at the Wayback Machine 12-14 Sept 201656310%37%3%9%37%4%
Ipsos 9–18 Sept 20161,21610%37%4%13%33%3%
Ifop 22 Aug–5 Sept 201662010%35%4%10%33%8%
BVA 13–20 Sept 201677411%38%4%11%34%2%
Ifop 9–26 Sept 201652712%35%4%13%31%5%
Kantar Sofres 21-26 Sept 20165618%39%4%13%33%3%
Harris Interactive Archived 2016-10-09 at the Wayback Machine 3–5 Oct 201665112%39%3%8%35%3%
Odoxa 1 Sept–6 Oct 201668011%39%4.5%12%31%2.5%
Kantar Sofres 30 Sept–6 Oct 201658611%42%4%11%28%4%
Odoxa 10–20 Oct 201662111%43%4%13%26%3%
Harris Interactive Archived 2016-11-12 at the Wayback Machine 7–9 Nov 201697517%39%4%7%31%2%
Kantar Sofres Archived 2016-11-16 at the Wayback Machine 7–10 Nov 201671418%36%4%9%30%3%
Odoxa 9–11 Nov 201655420%36%5%8%26%5%
BVA 3–13 Nov 201692818%37%4%9%29%3%
Ipsos Sopra-Steria 8–13 Nov 20161,33722%36%3%7%29%3%
Ifop 31 Oct–14 Nov 201664720%33%3%8%30%6%
Elabe 9–15 Nov 201668021%34%5%7%30%3%
Opinion Way 13–15 Nov 201682825%33%4%9%25%4%
Ifop 10–17 Nov 201674427%31%2%7%30%3%
Ipsos 18 Nov 201680730%29%3.5%5%29%3.5%
First round results20 November 201644.1%28.6%2.6%2.4%20.7%1.8%

Second round

Polls conducted prior to the first round

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Foire du livre de Brive 2015 (22269949293).jpg Francois Fillon 2010.jpg
Juppé
LR
Fillon
LR
Undecided
Odoxa/Le Parisien 17 Mar-29 Apr 20161,66072%28%
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680866%34%

Polls conducted after the first round

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Foire du livre de Brive 2015 (22269949293).jpg Francois Fillon 2010.jpg
Juppé
LR
Fillon
LR
Undecided
Opinion Way 20 Nov 20163,09544%56%
Ifop-Fiducial 21-23 Nov 20166,90135%65%
Second round results27 November 201633.5%66.5%

Hypothetical Polling

Hypothetical polling

Juppé-Sarkozy

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Foire du livre de Brive 2015 (22269949293).jpg Nicolas Sarkozy in 2010.jpg
Juppé
UMP/LR
Sarkozy
UMP/LR
Undecided
Ipsos 25–31 Aug 201551956%44%
Ifop 3–4 Sep 20151,07933%54%13%
Ifop 25 Sep–9 Oct 20155,22030%54%16%
BVA/Presse Régionale 6–15 Oct 201511,24448%52%
Ifop 11-22 Jan 20164,97462%38%
BVA/Orange et iTélé 11-12 Feb 20161,05359%41%
Ifop 1-15 Feb 20164,96759%41%
Elabe/BFMTV 16 Feb-16 Mar 20165,00164%36%
Ifop 23 Feb-18 Mar 20168,09062%38%
Ifop 29 Mar-14 Apr 20165,77561%39%
Odoxa/Le Parisien 17 Mar-29 Apr 20161,66063%37%
Ifop 28 Apr-20 May 20168,60459%41%
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680863%37%
Ifop 25 May-17 Jun 20161,03760%40%
Elabe 17 May–29 Jun 201662459%41%
Ifop 22 Aug–5 Sept 201662054%46%
Harris Interactive Archived 2016-09-20 at the Wayback Machine 12–14 Sept 201656352%48%
Ipsos 9–18 Sept 20161,21656%44%
BVA 13–20 Sept 201679856%44%
Ifop 9–26 Sept 201652757%43%
Kantar Sofres 21–26 Sept 201656159%41%
Harris Interactive Archived 2016-10-09 at the Wayback Machine 3–5 Oct 201665153%47%
Odoxa 1 Sept–6 Oct 201668059.5%40.5%
Kantar Sofres 30 Sept–6 Oct 201658662%38%
Odoxa 10–20 Oct 201662165%35%
Harris Interactive Archived 2016-11-12 at the Wayback Machine 7–9 Nov 201697558%42%
Kantar Sofres Archived 2016-11-16 at the Wayback Machine 7–10 Nov 201671459%41%
Odoxa 9–11 Nov 201655458%42%

Juppé-Le Maire

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Foire du livre de Brive 2015 (22269949293).jpg Reunion publique Bruno Le Maire Strasbourg 21 novembre 2014 01 (cropped).jpg
Juppé
UMP/LR
Le Maire
UMP/LR
Undecided
Odoxa/Le Parisien 17 Mar-29 Apr 20161,66066%34%
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680867%33%

Sarkozy-Le Maire

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Nicolas Sarkozy in 2010.jpg Reunion publique Bruno Le Maire Strasbourg 21 novembre 2014 01 (cropped).jpg
Sarkozy
UMP/LR
Le Maire
UMP/LR
Undecided
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680846%54%

Sarkozy-Fillon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Nicolas Sarkozy in 2010.jpg Francois Fillon IMG 3362 (cropped).jpg
Sarkozy
UMP/LR
Fillon
UMP/LR
Undecided
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680847%53%

Le Maire-Fillon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample size Reunion publique Bruno Le Maire Strasbourg 21 novembre 2014 01 (cropped).jpg Francois Fillon 2010.jpg
Le Maire
UMP/LR
Fillon
UMP/LR
Undecided
Opinion Way 19–23 May 201680850%50%

Results

In the first round of the primary on November 20, Fillon won an upset victory with 44% of the vote, while Juppé - long held by most opinion polls as the favorite to win the nomination - came in a distant second with 29%. [15] [16] Sarkozy, who was projected to come in second behind Juppé, was eliminated with just under 21% of the vote. In his concession speech, Sarkozy endorsed Fillon and vowed to "embark on a life with more private passions and fewer public passions." [17] This led to some media outlets declaring that "Sarkozy's political career [had] been effectively ended." [18]

In the runoff round, Fillon won by an even larger margin with nearly twice as many votes as Juppé (66.5% to 33.5%). Of the five departments won by Sarkozy in the first round, all but one switched to Fillon in the runoff. Similarly, of the thirteen departments that originally voted for Juppé, nine switched to Fillon in the second round.

Summary of The Republicans 20 and 27 November 2016 presidential primary
CandidatesParties1st round2nd round
Votes %Votes %
François Fillon The Republicans LR1,890,26644.1%2,919,87466.5%
Alain Juppé The Republicans LR1,224,85528.6%1,471,89833.5%
Nicolas Sarkozy The Republicans LR886,13720.7%
Nathalie Kosciusko-Morizet The Republicans LR109,6552.6%
Bruno Le Maire The Republicans LR102,1682.4%
Jean-Frédéric Poisson Christian Democratic Party PCD62,3461.5%
Jean-François Copé The Republicans LR12,7870.3%
Total4,288,214100%4,391,772100%
Valid votes4,288,21499.8%4,391,77299.7%
Spoilt and null votes9,8830.2%13,0400.3%
Total4,298,097100%4,404,812100%
Table of results ordered by number of votes received in first round. Official results by High Authority.

Source: First round result Archived 2016-11-24 at the Wayback Machine  · Second round result

See also

References

    1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Primaire Les Républicains 2016 : résultat favorable à Juppé dans les sondages". L'Internaute/La Rédaction. 26 January 2016. Retrieved 29 January 2016.
    2. 1 2 3 4 Vinocur, Nicholas (11 January 2016). "Big fight for the French Right". Politico Europe . Retrieved 11 January 2016.
    3. "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre 2016. Archived from the original on 2017-02-05. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
    4. "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre 2016. Archived from the original on 2017-09-04. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
    5. "Primaire de la droite et du centre". www.primaire2016.org. Haute autorité de la Primaire de la droite et du centre 2016. Archived from the original on 2017-06-07. Retrieved 2017-08-04.
    6. 1 2 Goar, Matthieu (2015-04-02). "Le projet de charte de la primaire UMP". Le Monde.fr (in French). ISSN   1950-6244 . Retrieved 2017-08-04.
    7. "Les expatriés pourront voter par Internet à la primaire de la droite". RTL.fr (in French). Retrieved 2017-08-04.
    8. Lorimer, Marta (1 June 2016). "The 2017 French presidential election: The race has started… and so far it has more candidates than voters". LSE . Retrieved 9 June 2016.
    9. "Haute Autorité de la Primaire. Décision – 21 septembre 2016 (HAP 2016-12 D), Liste des candidats à la primaire" (PDF) (in French). 21 September 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-11-17. Retrieved 1 December 2016.
    10. "Primaire de l'UMP : Fillon sera candidat "quoi qu'il arrive"". Le Monde. May 9, 2013. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
    11. Inti Laundaro (August 20, 2014). "Alain Juppé Declares Intention to Seek French Presidency in 2017". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 8, 2014.
    12. "Ex-PM Juppé announces bid for 2017". France24. Archived from the original on 30 June 2015. Retrieved 27 June 2015.
    13. "Marion Maréchal-Le Pen: the new wonder-girl of France's far-right". The Daily Telegraph. 5 December 2015. Retrieved 2 January 2016.
    14. Chrisafis, Angelique (22 August 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy declares candidacy for French presidential election". The Guardian. Retrieved 22 August 2016.
    15. Henry Samuel (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy crashes out of French Right-wing primaries as Thatcherite Francois Fillon takes surprise lead". The Telegraph. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
    16. William Horobin (November 20, 2016). "Nicolas Sarkozy, in Upset, Is Knocked Out of Race for French Presidency". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
    17. "France Sarkozy: Ex-president exits after defeat". BBC. November 21, 2016. Retrieved November 21, 2016.
    18. Angelique Chrisafis (November 20, 2016). "Sarkozy defeated in primary for French right's presidential candidate". The Guardian. Retrieved November 20, 2016.