2020 Dominican Republic general election

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2020 Dominican Republic general election
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Presidential election
  Luis Abinader45.jpg Gonzalo castillo-facebook-photo.jpg Reunion de expresidentes (27782591751) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Luis Abinader Gonzalo Castillo Leonel Fernández
Party PRM PLD FP
Running mate Raquel Peña Margarita Cedeño Sergia Mejía
Popular vote2,154,8661,537,078365,226
Percentage52.52%37.46%8.90%
Electoral Map of Dominican Republic (2020).svg
Presidential election result by district
President before election

Danilo Medina
PLD

Elected President

Luis Abinader
PRM

General elections were held in the Dominican Republic on 5 July 2020 to elect a president, vice-president, 32 senators and 190 deputies. They had originally been planned for 17 May, but were postponed due to the coronavirus pandemic. [1] [2] They are the second elections since 1994 in which all positions will be elected simultaneously, and the first in Dominican history in which all authorities will be elected simultaneously and directly. [3] [4] [5] [6]

Contents

Incumbent President Danilo Medina was ineligible to stand for re-election, having served two consecutive terms since 2012. The governing Dominican Liberation Party's 16-year rule ended after Modern Revolutionary Party candidate Luis Abinader received a majority of the vote. [7] Rival candidates Gonzalo Castillo and Leonel Fernández also conceded defeat. [7] The Modern Revolutionary Party also won a majority of seats in the Senate and a plurality in the Chamber of Deputies. The election was a partial realignment, with the Modern Revolutionary Party entering a status as a major party in the country, replacing the Dominican Revolutionary Party, who saw poor election results for the second election in a row and who obtained its lowest total vote share and seat count in its history. Abinader would be officially sworn in as President on 16 August. [8]

Electoral system

The President of the Dominican Republic is elected using the two-round system; if no candidate receives 50% + 1 vote, or more, of the total votes, a second-round runoff will be held between the two candidates with the highest votes on the first round.

The 32 members of the Senate are elected from the 31 provinces and the Distrito Nacional using first-past-the-post voting. [9]

The 190 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected in three groups; 178 are elected by proportional representation from 32 multi-member constituencies based on the 31 provinces and the Distrito Nacional, with the number of seats based on the population of each province. A further seven members are elected by proportional representation by Dominican expatriates in 3 overseas constituencies, and five seats are allocated at the national level to parties that received at least 1% of the vote nationally, giving preference to those that did not win any of the 178 constituency seats. [10]

The 20 seats in the Central American Parliament are elected by proportional representation.

Presidential candidates

PartyPresidential candidateVice presidential candidate
Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) Gonzalo Castillo [11] Margarita Cedeño
Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) Luis Abinader [11] Raquel Peña
Fuerza del Pueblo (FP) Leonel Fernández Sergia Elena Mejía
Alianza País (ALPAÍS) Guillermo Moreno García [11] Agustín González Morel
National Citizen Will Party (PNVC) Juan Cohen Hugo McFarlane Kaluche
Partido Demócrata Institucional (PDI) Ismael Reyes Cruz  [ es ]Frank Gene Troncoso Haché

Opinion polls

President

PollsterDate(s) Castillo
(PLD) 		Abinader
(PRM) 		Fernandez
(FP) 		Moreno
(ALPAIS)
Centro Económico del Cibao 11–13 Oct 201929.7%43.7%23.6%—
Centro Económico del Cibao 3–5 Nov 201931%42.9%18.4%1.9%
Centro Economico del Cibao [12] [13] 29 Nov –1 Dec 201925.6%46.6%24.4%—
Pool Logistic SRL 1–5 Dec 201949%36%3.9%—
Ideame 3–10 Dec 201931.8%47.5%18.3%—
ABC Marketing [ permanent dead link ]10–14 Dec 201922.6%47.3%20.9%—
Sigma Dos 15–17 Dec 201939.9%35%8%—
Mark Penn/Stagwell [ permanent dead link ]8–10 Jan 202028%43%19%—
Gallup-RD 16–21 Jan 202031.4%42.2%15.5%1.2%
Gallup-Hoy 16–21 Jan 202031.7%44.9%19.3%—
CIES International 31 Jan–2 Feb 202035%37%11%3%
Greenberg-Diario Libre 21–24 Feb 202024%52%17%2%
CIES International 23–25 Feb 202028.8%43.7%12.6%6.4%
CIMERAN< 28–29 Feb 202025%52.5%17.5%3.5%
Centro Económico del Cibao 28 Feb–5 Mar 202021.0%55.1%15.6%—
Sigma Dos 2–7 Apr 202038.8%36.6%9.6%—
Horizon Research LLC 7 Apr 202023.6%43.9%31.2%—
Global Trend Research 12–15 Apr 202022.9%43.1%30.4%0.8%
ASISA 13–19 Apr 202020.4%44%29.1%—
JB Consulting Group 14–20 Apr 202046.6%31.1%3.6%—
APD Consulting Group 17–20 Apr 202024.1%54.4%11.8%4.6%
CIES International 17–20 Apr 202033%39%9%4%
Centro Economico del Cibao 18–19 Apr 202023.7%53.4%7.3%1%
Polimetrics 22–25 Apr 202040.8%38.3%9.3%1.9%
CID Latinoamericana 22–23 Apr 202040%38%8%—
New Partners 23–26 Apr 202027.4%52.1%9.9%2.1%
Market Reports 25–27 Apr 202022.4%42.8%31.2%—
Mercado & Cuantificaciones 27–29 Apr 202030.3%52.3%12.3%1.7%
GIDL 26 Apr–1 May 202023.2%41.9%32.4%—
Datamarket 1–3 May 202026%46%21%2%
Horizon Research LCC 3–7 May 202022.8%41.3%33.5%—
Effective Project Comunications [ permanent dead link ]4–7 May 202029%49%16%3%
Polimetric 4–9 May 202040.4%37.7%8.8%—
Centro Economico del Cibao 11–12 May 202035.2%53.9%9.5%—
ABC Marketing 13–16 May 202026.5%55.6%14.5%—
SISGLO 17–20 May 202024.1%40.6%33.8%—
Centro Economico del Cibao 18–19 May 202034.6%53.3%9.9%2.2%
Elections &  Proyect Corp 20–22 May 202021.8%42.1%33.9%—
IDEAME 18–23 May 202031.5%51.8%14.3%1%
José Dorín Cabrera Mercadología 21–23 May 202046.9%36.7%9.5%2.2%
Mark Penn/Stagwell 20–25 May 202037%39%10%—
APD Consulting Group 21–25 May 202034.4%51.6%11.6%2.3%
CID Latinoamericana [14] [15] 23–24 May 202041%39%10%3%
ASISA 13–19 Apr 202020.4%44%29.1%—
Centro Economico del Cibao 25–26 May 202034.0%53.5%10.3%2.1%
CIES International 24–27 May 202029%52%10%6%
CYGNAL 26 May–2 Jun 202028.2%54.6%13.9%3.4%
Mercado & Cuantificaciones 28–30 May 202033%51.3%11.2%1.1%
Datamarket 26–30 May 202027%44%21%2%
Polimetrics 30–31 May 202040.7%37.5%8.5%2.6%
GIDL 1–3 Jun 202021.5%40.7%33.4%1.7%
Mercado & Cuantificaciones 2–5 Jun 202034.5%52.1%8.2%—
New Partners 2–5 Jun 202029.5%50.7%11.4%—
Global Trend Research 4–6 Jun 202025.7%40.3%30.8%—
Gavindian Polsters 4–8 Jun 202038%52%9%1%
Ideame 5–9 Jun 202034.4%52.5%10.9%0.9%
Centro de Innovación y Políticas Públicas 6–9 Jun 202036.3%52.3%7.7%1%
CID Latinoamericana 9–11 Jun 202043%44%9%1%
Consulting and Field International 9–12 Jun 202043%40%9%2%
Sigma Dos [16] [17] 12–14 Jun 202043.6%40.4%10.1%1.9%
John Zogby Strategies 12–14 Jun 202034%54%9%2%
Datamarket 12–14 Jun 202032%43%17%2%
Greenberg-Diario Libre 11–16 Jun 202029%56%12%1%
Gallup 12–16 Jun 202035.5%53.7%8.6%1.3%
Mercado y Cuantificaciones 15–17 Jun 202033.5%55.8%7.0%0.3%
PoliRD 16–18 Jun 202045.1%41.7%9.8%1.8%
ABC Marketing 15–20 Jun 202032.6%54.8%10.4%—
Market Reports 18–21 Jun 202026.2%40.8%30.6%—
Polismetrics 20–25 Jun 202042.9%39.2%9.6%1.8%
Emevenca 20–23 Jun 202041%46%8%2%
Mark Penn /Stagwell-SIN 16–23 Jun 202035%47%11%—
GIDL 21–23 Jun 202023.8%43%29.7%1.2%
Centro Economico del Cibao 22–23 Jun 202033.4%55.2%9.7%1.7%
NewPartners 24–25 Jun 202029%54%10%—

Party identification and Congress

PollsterDate(s) PLD PRM FP PRSC PRD ALPAIS N/AOthers
CIES International 19–22 Sep 201931%33%—3.3%1.2%4.7%15.6%12.2%
Gallup-Hoy 16–21 Jan 202037.5%43.3%8.5%——0.1%7.6%2.9%
CIES International 23–25 Feb 202027.5%43.6%10%3.8%1.3%2.5%11.3%—
Makert Reports 25–27 Apr 202029.1%34.7%19.1%3.6%2.3%—6.8%4.2%
Datamarket [18] 1–3 May 202027%37%7%6%4%2%6%11%
Effective Project Comunications [ permanent dead link ]4–7 May 202032%44%8%6%4%1%2%3%
José Dorín Cabrera Mercadología 21–23 May 202034.2%23.2%8.4%——0.5%30.1%3.6%
CID Latinoamericana 23–24 May 202045%38%6%—————
Datamarket 26–30 May 202027%37%7%6%4%2%6%11%
CYGNAL 26 May–2 Jun 202026.7%40.5%9.5%—————
Polimetrics 30–31 May 202035.4%29.9%8.9%0.9%——25.7%9.2%
CID Latinoamerica [ permanent dead link ]9–11 Jun 202043%40%7%1%2%1%5%1%
Mercados y Cuantificaciones 15–17 Jun 202034%47.8%5.3%1.1%1.1%0.4%9.3%1%
ABC Marketing 15–20 Jun 202029.8%46.7%12.3%3.1%6.0%———
Market Reports 18–21 Jun 202027.3%33.2%22.2%3.6%2.3%—6.8%4.6%
GIDL 21–23 Jun 202023.7%34.7%21.7%4.2%1.3%—8.2%—
NewPartners 24–25 Jun 202028%50%6%0%1%1%13%1%

Conduct

It was initially reported that representatives of the Organization of American States (OAS) would arrive to the Dominican Republic on 13 February 2020 to monitor the elections. [19] [20] [21] The general election to elect the President and members of the Dominican Republic parliament, which was postponed from the scheduled 17 May 2020 date due to the COVID-19 pandemic, was later held on 5 July 2020. [22] [23]

Local media reported that the elections proceeded smoothly, except for one incident, when a person was shot inside a polling station after an argument erupted between rival party supporters. [24]

Results

President

Luis Abinader won the presidential election in the first round, obtaining over 50% of the vote. During the election count, the ruling Dominican Liberation Party's candidate Gonzalo Castillo conceded defeat, stating that the official count "shows that there is an irreversible trend and that from now on we have a president-elect... Our congratulations to Mr Luis Abinader." [7] Former President Leonel Fernández, who left the ruling party and ran for the presidency as a member of the People's Force party, also conceded defeat. [7] Abinader was sworn in as President of the Dominican Republic on 16 August 2020. [8]

CandidatePartyVotes%
Luis Abinader Modern Revolutionary Party and allies [lower-alpha 1] 2,154,86652.51
Gonzalo Castillo Dominican Liberation Party and allies [lower-alpha 2] 1,537,07837.46
Leonel Fernández People's Force and allies [lower-alpha 3] 365,2268.90
Guillermo Moreno García Country Alliance 39,4580.96
Ismael Reyes Cruz  [ es ] Institutional Democratic Party 3,4840.08
Juan Cohen National Citizen Will Party 3,2500.08
Total4,103,362100.00
Valid votes4,103,36298.56
Invalid/blank votes59,9431.44
Total votes4,163,305100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,529,93255.29
Source: JCE

Senate

The Modern Revolutionary Party won an absolute majority in the Senate on their own, seeing their seat total increase by 15, while the ruling Dominican Liberation party lost over 75% of their prior seats.

Senado de Republica Dominicana 2020.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Modern Revolutionary Party 1,768,58845.2417+15
Dominican Liberation Party 1,267,16832.416–20
People's Force 141,8363.631+1
Social Christian Reformist Party 116,3532.986+5
Dominican Revolutionary Party 111,4762.850–1
National Unity Party 55,0571.4100
Country Alliance 54,2091.3900
Dominicans for Change 48,3651.241+1
Social Democratic Institutional Bloc 48,1241.2310
Civic Renovation Party 36,0300.9200
Alternative Democratic Movement 27,7450.7100
Liberal Reformist Party 25,2760.650–1
Broad Front 24,8630.6400
Revolutionary Social Democratic Party 23,0930.5900
Alliance for Democracy 20,8680.5300
Christian People's Party 18,8170.4800
Quisqueyano Christian Democratic Party 17,1250.4400
Dominican Humanist Party 15,9630.4100
Liberal Party of Action14,5370.3700
National Progressive Force 14,4850.3700
Christian Democratic Union 12,3920.3200
Possible Country11,1360.280New
Independent Revolutionary Party 9,6280.2500
People's Democratic Party 9,5680.2400
Institutional Democratic Party 8,9710.2300
National Citizen Will Party 7,6510.2000
Total3,909,324100.00320
Valid votes3,909,32497.01
Invalid/blank votes120,5622.99
Total votes4,029,886100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,934,05358.12
Source: JCE (votes) JCE (seats) Ganadores Elecciones Julio 2020

Chamber of Deputies

The Modern Revolutionary Party won a plurality of votes and seats, seeing their seat count more than double. The ruling Dominican Liberation Party lost nearly 30% of their prior seats. No party has a majority on their own in the Chamber, meaning alliances or coalitions will need to be made to guarantee the passage of bills. A total of 96 seats is needed for a majority.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Modern Revolutionary Party 1,634,86040.8486+44
Dominican Liberation Party 1,261,80231.5275–31
Dominican Revolutionary Party 220,9395.524–12
People's Force 170,9934.273+3
Social Christian Reformist Party 165,8004.146–12
Country Alliance 71,8991.802+1
Dominicans for Change 45,1621.132+2
Dominican Humanist Party 42,5971.061+1
Civic Renovation Party 39,5890.991+1
Social Democratic Institutional Bloc 37,2350.932+2
Revolutionary Social Democratic Party 33,3620.831+1
Alternative Democratic Movement 32,7230.820–1
Broad Front 30,4290.763+2
National Unity Party 27,6000.6900
Alliance for Democracy 26,5700.662+2
Christian People's Party 20,8940.520–1
Quisqueyano Christian Democratic Party 19,4140.4810
Christian Democratic Union 18,1990.4500
Liberal Party of Action17,6550.4400
Liberal Reformist Party 15,6520.391–2
Possible Country15,3460.380New
National Citizen Will Party 12,5170.3100
Independent Revolutionary Party 12,3680.3100
National Progressive Force 10,9590.2700
People's Democratic Party 10,5980.2600
Institutional Democratic Party 7,9970.2000
Total4,003,159100.001900
Valid votes4,003,15996.34
Invalid/blank votes151,9463.66
Total votes4,155,105100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,529,93255.18
Source: JCE, JCE

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References

  1. ↑ "Padrón para las elecciones de mayo tendrá un incremento de más de 69 mil electores" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 14 January 2020. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
  2. ↑ "La JCE pospone las elecciones presidenciales y congresuales para el 5 de julio" (in European Spanish). Diario Libre. 14 April 2020. Retrieved 14 April 2020.
  3. ↑ "Elecciones de 2020 son un reto para la JCE" (in European Spanish). El Día. 2 August 2017. Retrieved 2 December 2017.
  4. ↑ "Este será el orden de los partidos en la próxima boleta electoral" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 10 December 2019. Retrieved 10 December 2019.
  5. ↑ "Candidatos presidenciales podrán gastar más de 900 millones durante campaña electoral" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 17 March 2020. Retrieved 17 March 2020.
  6. ↑ "La JCE aprueba tres formatos distintos para boletas de mayo" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 19 March 2020. Retrieved 19 March 2020.
  7. 1 2 3 4 BBC News (6 July 2020). "Change in Dominican Republic as opposition wins presidency". Yahoo News. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  8. 1 2 "Luis Abinader Sworn in as Dominican Leader; Pompeo Attends". U.S. News. Associated Press. 16 August 2020. Retrieved 16 August 2020.
  9. ↑ Senado (Senate) IPU
  10. ↑ Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) IPU
  11. 1 2 3 "Once partidos gestan coalición para desplazar al PLD del poder" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 23 October 2019. Retrieved 23 October 2019.
  12. ↑ "Luis derrotaría fácil a Gonzalo y a Leonel en primera vuelta, según encuesta". Acento (in European Spanish). Retrieved 23 June 2020.[ permanent dead link ]
  13. ↑ "Encuesta otorga mayoría de simpatías a Luis Abinader". listindiario.com (in Spanish). 10 December 2019. Retrieved 23 June 2020.
  14. ↑ "Resumen y Predicciones de Encuestas Elecciones 2020 Republica Dominicana". ElInfluyente.com. 16 June 2020. Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  15. ↑ "Encuesta dice ya Gonzalo Castillo está arriba de Luis Abinader en primera y segunda vuelta". Hoy Digital (in Spanish). 1 June 2020. Retrieved 23 June 2020.
  16. ↑ "Encuesta da a Gonzalo 43.6%, Abinader 40.4% y Leonel 10.1%". listindiario.com (in Spanish). 21 June 2020. Retrieved 22 June 2020.
  17. ↑ "Gonzalo Castillo ganaría las elecciones con una ventaja de más de 3 puntos frente a Luis Abinader, según encuesta". Roberto Cavada (in Spanish). 21 June 2020. Retrieved 24 June 2020.
  18. ↑ "Abinader ganaría elecciones con 46 %; Gonzalo Castillo 26 % y Leonel Fernández 21 %, según encuesta Datamarket". Roberto Cavada (in Spanish). 5 May 2020. Retrieved 25 June 2020.
  19. ↑ "Misión de OEA observará elecciones del 2020 en República Dominicana" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 25 November 2019. Retrieved 25 November 2019.
  20. ↑ "Observadores electorales de la OEA harán visita preliminar la próxima semana" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 17 January 2020. Retrieved 17 January 2020.
  21. ↑ "JCE recibirá observadores de 20 países para elecciones municipales" (in European Spanish). Listin Diario. 9 February 2020. Retrieved 9 February 2020.
  22. ↑ "Dominicans vote in election postponed over virus". BBC News. 5 July 2020. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  23. ↑ "Polls open in Dominican Republic presidential election". France 24. 5 July 2020. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
  24. ↑ "Change in Dominican Republic as opposition wins presidency". Archived from the original on 4 August 2020. Retrieved 6 July 2020.
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