The euro convergence criteria (also known as the Maastricht criteria) are the criteria European Union member states are required to meet to enter the third stage of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and adopt the euro as their currency. The four main criteria, which actually comprise five criteria as the "fiscal criterion" consists of both a "debt criterion" and a "deficit criterion", are based on Article 140 (ex article 121.1) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
Full EMU membership is only open to EU member states. However, the European microstates of Andorra, Monaco, San Marino and the Vatican City, which are not members of the EU, have signed monetary agreements with the EU which allow them officially to adopt the euro and issue their own variant of euro coins. These states had all previously used one of the eurozone currencies replaced by the euro, or a currency pegged to one of them. These states are not members of the eurozone and do not get a seat in the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Eurogroup.
As part of the EU treaty, all of the EU Member States are obliged to adhere to the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which serves as a framework to ensure price stability and fiscal responsibility, has adopted identical limits for governments budget deficit and debt as the convergence criteria. As several countries did not exercise a sufficient level of fiscal responsibility during the first 10 years of the euro's lifetime, two major SGP reforms were recently introduced. The first reform was the Sixpack which entered into force in December 2011, and it was followed in January 2013 by the even more ambitious Fiscal Compact, which was signed by 25 out of the then-27 EU member states.
Countries are expected to participate in the second version of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) for two years before joining the Euro.
The Maastricht Treaty, which was signed in February 1992 and entered into force on 1 November 1993, outlined the five convergence criteria EU member states are required to comply with to adopt the new currency, the euro. The purpose of setting the criteria was to achieve price stability within the eurozone and ensure it wasn't negatively impacted when new member states accede. The framework of the five criteria was outlined by article 109j.1 of the Maastricht Treaty, and the attached Protocol on the Convergence Criteria and Protocol on the Excessive Deficit Procedure. The original treaty article was later renumbered to become article 121.1 of the Amsterdam Treaty, [1] and later renumbered again to Article 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. Aside from the renumbering, no significant change have happened to the content of the "convergence criteria article" and its referred to Protocol on the Convergence Criteria and Protocol on the Excessive Deficit Procedure. The precise definition and method of measuring compliance was subsequently further developed by the EMI (later known as ECB) in their first three reports published in April 1995, November 1995 and November 1996. [2] [3] [4] The full definition of the five criteria are summarized below.
The ECB publishes a Convergence Report at least every two years to check how well the EU members aspiring for euro adoption comply with the criteria. The first full convergence report was published in November 1996, and concluded only 3 out of 15 EU member states (Denmark, Luxembourg and Ireland) were completely compliant with the criteria at that point in time. [16] As a majority of states were not in compliance, the Council decided to delay the introduction of the euro by two years to 1 January 1999. [17] In March 1998 a more positive second convergence report concluded that 11 out of 12 applying countries were prepared for the electronic introduction of the euro on 1 January 1999, with only Greece failing to qualify by the deadline. [18] Subsequent convergence reports have so far resulted in an additional 9 EU member states complying with all criteria and adopting the euro (Greece, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Croatia). The latest convergence report was published in June 2014, and checked for compliance in the reference year from May 2012 – April 2014, where Lithuania managed to fully comply – thus becoming the next 19th eurozone member. [6] As the reference values for HICP inflation and long-term interest rates change on a monthly basis, any member state with a euro derogation has the right to ask the ECB for an updated compliance check, whenever they believe they have met all both economic and legal convergence criteria. For example, Latvia asked for such an extraordinary compliance check in March 2013 (outside the regular 2-year interval for automatic assessments). [19]
Non-eurozone member state | Currency (Code) | Central rate per €1 [20] | EU join date | ERM II join date [20] | Government policy on euro adoption | Convergence criteria compliance [21] (as of June 2022) | Notes |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bulgaria | Lev (BGN) | 1.95583 [nb 1] | 2007-01-01 | 2020-07-10 | Euro by 1 January 2025 [22] [23] | Not compliant on inflation and legislation (Reassessment due in June 2024) [24] [21] | |
Czech Rep. | Koruna (CZK) | Free floating | 2004-05-01 | None | Assessment of joining ERM-II to be completed by October 2024 [25] | Not compliant on 3 out of 5 criteria | |
Denmark | Krone (DKK) | 7.46038 | 1973-01-01 | 1999-01-01 | Not on government's agenda [26] [27] | Not assessed due to treaty opt-out from eurozone membership | Rejected euro adoption by referendum in 2000 |
Hungary | Forint (HUF) | Free floating | 2004-05-01 | None | Not on government's agenda [28] | Not compliant on 4 out of 5 criteria | |
Poland | Złoty (PLN) | Free floating | 2004-05-01 | None | Not on government's agenda [29] | Not compliant on 4 out of 5 criteria | |
Romania | Leu (RON) | Free floating | 2007-01-01 | None | ERM-II by 2026 and euro by 1 January 2029 [30] [31] [32] | Not compliant on 5 out of 5 criteria | |
Sweden | Krona (SEK) | Free floating | 1995-01-01 | None | Not on government's agenda [33] | Not compliant on ERM-II and legislation | Rejected euro adoption by referendum in 2003. Still obliged to adopt the euro once compliant with all criteria. [nb 2] |
In 2009, the authors of a confidential International Monetary Fund (IMF) report suggested that in light of the ongoing global financial crisis, the EU Council should consider granting new EU member states which are having difficulty complying with all five convergence criteria the option to "partially adopt" the euro, along the lines of the monetary agreements signed with the European microstates outside the EU. These states would gain the right to adopt the euro and issue a national variant of euro coins, but would not get a seat in ECB or the Eurogroup until they met all the convergence criteria. [34] However, the EU has not made use of this alternative accession process.
Country | HICP inflation rate [35] [nb 3] | Excessive deficit procedure [36] | Exchange rate | Long-term interest rate [37] [nb 4] | Compatibility of legislation | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget deficit to GDP [38] | Debt-to-GDP ratio [39] | ERM II member [40] | Change in rate [41] [42] [nb 5] | ||||
Reference values [nb 6] | Max. 4.9% [nb 7] (as of April 2022) | None open(as of 25 May 2022) | Min. 2 years | Max. ±15% [nb 8] (for 2021) | Max. 2.6% [nb 7] (as of April 2022) | Yes [43] [44] (as of 25 March 2022) | |
Max. 3.0% (Fiscal year 2021) [43] | Max. 60% (Fiscal year 2021) [43] | ||||||
EU members (outside the eurozone) | |||||||
Bulgaria | 5.9% | None | 3 years, 11 months | 0.0% | 0.5% | No | |
4.1% (exempt) | 25.1% | ||||||
Czech Republic | 6.2% | None | No | 3.1% | 2.5% | No | |
5.9% (exempt) | 41.9% | ||||||
Denmark | 3.6% | None | 25 years, 5 months | 0.2% | 0.2% | Unknown | |
-2.3% (surplus) | 36.7% | ||||||
Hungary | 6.8% | None | No | -2.1% | 4.1% | No | |
6.8% (exempt) | 76.8% (exempt) | ||||||
Poland | 7.0% | None | No | -2.7% | 3.0% | No | |
1.9% | 53.8% | ||||||
Romania | 6.4% | Open | No | -1.7% | 4.7% | No | |
7.1% | 48.8% | ||||||
Sweden | 3.7% | None | No | 3.2% | 0.4% | No | |
0.2% | 36.7% |
The compliance check above was conducted in June 2014, with the HICP and interest rate reference values specifically applying for the last assessment month with available data (April 2014). As reference values for HICP and interest rates are subject for monthly changes, any EU member state with a euro derogation, has the right to ask for a renewed compliance check at any time during the year. For this potential extra assessment, the table below feature Eurostat's monthly recalculation of criteria values being used in the calculation process to determine the upper limit for HICP inflation and long-term interest rates, where a certain fixed buffer value is added to the moving yearly average for the three EU Member States with the lowest HICP figures (ignoring states classified as "outliers").
The black values in the table are sourced by the officially published convergence reports, while the lime-green values are only qualified estimates – not confirmed by any official convergence report – but sourced by monthly estimation reports published by the Polish Ministry of Finance. The reason why the lime-green values are only estimates, is because the "outlier" selection – ignoring certain states from the reference value calculation – beside of depending on a quantitative assessment also depends on a more complicated overall qualitative assessment, and hence it can not be predicted with absolute certainty who of the states the commission will deem to be outliers. Thus, any selection of outliers by the lime-green data lines shall only be regarded as qualified estimates – which potentially could be different from those outliers which the commission would have selected if they had published a specific report at the concerned point of time. [nb 1]
The national fiscal accounts for the previous full calendar year are released each year in April (next time 23 April 2015). [49] [ needs update ] As the compliance check for both the debt and deficit criteria always awaits this release in a new calendar year, the first possible month to request a compliance check will be April, which would result in a data check for the HICP and Interest rates during the reference year from 1 April to 31 March. Any EU Member State may also ask the European Commission to conduct a compliance check, at any point of time during the remainder of the year, with HICP and interest rates always checked for the past 12 months – while debt and deficit compliance always will be checked for the 3-year period encompassing the last completed full calendar year and the two subsequent forecast years. [6] [13] As of 12 September 2014, all of the remaining euro derogation states without an opt-out had not yet entered ERM-II, [20] which mean it's highly unlikely any of them will ask the European Commission to conduct an extraordinary compliance check ahead of the publication of the next regular convergence report (scheduled for release in May/June 2016).[ needs update ]
The euro area, commonly called the eurozone (EZ), is a currency union of 20 member states of the European Union (EU) that have adopted the euro (€) as their primary currency and sole legal tender, and have thus fully implemented EMU policies.
The European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II) is a system introduced by the European Economic Community on 1 January 1999 alongside the introduction of a single currency, the euro as part of the European Monetary System (EMS), to reduce exchange rate variability and achieve monetary stability in Europe.
The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is an agreement, among all the 27 member states of the European Union, to facilitate and maintain the stability of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Based primarily on Articles 121 and 126 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union, it consists of fiscal monitoring of member states by the European Commission and the Council of the European Union, and the issuing of a yearly Country-Specific Recommendation for fiscal policy actions to ensure a full compliance with the SGP also in the medium-term. If a member state breaches the SGP's outlined maximum limit for government deficit and debt, the surveillance and request for corrective action will intensify through the declaration of an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP); and if these corrective actions continue to remain absent after multiple warnings, a member state of the eurozone can ultimately also be issued economic sanctions. The pact was outlined by a European Council resolution in June 1997 and two Council regulations in July 1997. The first regulation "on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies", known as the "preventive arm", entered into force 1 July 1998. The second regulation "on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure", sometimes referred to as the "dissuasive arm" but commonly known as the "corrective arm", entered into force 1 January 1999.
The economy of the European Union is the joint economy of the member states of the European Union (EU). It is the second largest economy in the world in nominal terms, after the United States, and the third largest at purchasing power parity (PPP), after China and the US. The European Union's GDP is estimated to be $19.35 trillion (nominal) in 2024 or $26.64 trillion (PPP), representing around one-sixth of the global economy. Germany has the biggest national GDP of all EU countries, followed by France and Italy. In 2022, the social welfare expenditure of the European Union (EU) as a whole was 19.5% of its GDP.
Lithuania, as an EU member state, joined the eurozone by adopting the euro on 1 January 2015. This made it the last of the three Baltic states to adopt the euro, after Estonia (2011) and Latvia (2014). Before then, its currency, the litas, was pegged to the euro at 3.4528 litas to 1 euro.
The Czech Republic is bound to adopt the euro in the future and to join the eurozone once it has satisfied the euro convergence criteria by the Treaty of Accession since it joined the European Union (EU) in 2004. The Czech Republic is therefore a candidate for the enlargement of the eurozone and it uses the Czech koruna as its currency, regulated by the Czech National Bank, a member of the European System of Central Banks, and does not participate in European Exchange Rate Mechanism II.
While the Hungarian government has been planning since 2003 to replace the Hungarian forint with the euro, as of 2023, there is no target date and the forint is not part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. An economic study in 2008 found that the adoption of the euro would increase foreign investment in Hungary by 30%, although current governor of the Hungarian National Bank and former Minister of the National Economy György Matolcsy said they did not want to give up the country's independence regarding corporate tax matters.
Latvia replaced its previous currency, the lats, with the euro on 1 January 2014, after a European Union (EU) assessment in June 2013 asserted that the country had met all convergence criteria necessary for euro adoption. The adoption process began 1 May 2004, when Latvia joined the European Union, entering the EU's Economic and Monetary Union. At the start of 2005, the lats was pegged to the euro at Ls 0.702804 = €1, and Latvia joined the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, four months later on 2 May 2005.
Poland does not use the euro as its currency. However, under the terms of their Treaty of Accession with the European Union, all new Member States "shall participate in the Economic and Monetary Union from the date of accession as a Member State with a derogation", which means that Poland is obliged to eventually replace its currency, the złoty, with the euro.
Bulgaria plans to adopt the euro and become the 21st member state of the eurozone. The Bulgarian lev has been on the currency board since 1997 through a fixed exchange rate of the lev against the Deutsche Mark and the euro. Bulgaria's target date for introduction of the euro is 1 January 2025, which would make the euro only the second national currency of the country since the lev was introduced over 140 years ago. The official exchange rate is 1.95583 lev for 1 euro.
Romania's national currency is the leu. After Romania joined the European Union (EU) in 2007, the country became required to replace the leu with the euro once it meets all four euro convergence criteria, as stated in article 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. As of 2023, the only currency on the market is the leu and the euro is not yet used in shops. The Romanian leu is not part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, although Romanian authorities are working to prepare the changeover to the euro. To achieve the currency changeover, Romania must undergo at least two years of stability within the limits of the convergence criteria.
Sweden does not currently use the euro as its currency and has no plans to replace the existing Swedish krona in the near future. Sweden's Treaty of Accession of 1994 made it subject to the Treaty of Maastricht, which obliges states to join the eurozone once they meet the necessary conditions. Sweden maintains that joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II, participation in which for at least two years is a requirement for euro adoption, is voluntary, and has chosen to remain outside pending public approval by a referendum, thereby intentionally avoiding the fulfilment of the adoption requirements.
The euro came into existence on 1 January 1999, although it had been a goal of the European Union (EU) and its predecessors since the 1960s. After tough negotiations, the Maastricht Treaty entered into force in 1993 with the goal of creating an economic and monetary union (EMU) by 1999 for all EU states except the UK and Denmark.
The United Kingdom did not seek to adopt the euro as its official currency for the duration of its membership of the European Union (EU), and secured an opt-out at the euro's creation via the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, wherein the Bank of England would only be a member of the European System of Central Banks.
Denmark uses the krone as its currency and does not use the euro, having negotiated the right to opt out from participation under the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. In 2000, the government held a referendum on introducing the euro, which was defeated with 53.2% voting no and 46.8% voting yes. The Danish krone is part of the ERM II mechanism, so its exchange rate is tied to within 2.25% of the euro.
Montenegro is a country in Southeast Europe, which is neither a member of the European Union (EU) nor the Eurozone; it does not have a formal monetary agreement with the EU either. However, it is one of the two territories that has unilaterally adopted the euro in 2002 as its de facto domestic currency. This means that even though the euro is not a legal tender there, it is treated as such by the government and the population.
The enlargement of the eurozone is an ongoing process within the European Union (EU). All member states of the European Union, except Denmark which negotiated an opt-out from the provisions, are obliged to adopt the euro as their sole currency once they meet the criteria, which include: complying with the debt and deficit criteria outlined by the Stability and Growth Pact, keeping inflation and long-term governmental interest rates below certain reference values, stabilising their currency's exchange rate versus the euro by participating in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and ensuring that their national laws comply with the ECB statute, ESCB statute and articles 130+131 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The obligation for EU member states to adopt the euro was first outlined by article 109.1j of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which became binding on all new member states by the terms of their treaties of accession.
The economic and monetary union (EMU) of the European Union is a group of policies aimed at converging the economies of member states of the European Union at three stages.
The Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union; also referred to as TSCG, or more plainly the Fiscal Stability Treaty is an intergovernmental treaty introduced as a new stricter version of the Stability and Growth Pact, signed on 2 March 2012 by all member states of the European Union (EU), except the Czech Republic and the United Kingdom. The treaty entered into force on 1 January 2013 for the 16 states which completed ratification prior to this date. As of 3 April 2019, it had been ratified and entered into force for all 25 signatories plus Croatia, which acceded to the EU in July 2013, and the Czech Republic.
Croatia adopted the euro as its currency on 1 January 2023, becoming the 20th member state of the eurozone. A fixed conversion rate was set at 1 € = 7.5345 kn.