Hungary and the euro

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Eurozone participation
European Union member states
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20 in the eurozone
1 in ERM II, without an opt-out (Bulgaria)
1 in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark)
5 not in ERM II, but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting the convergence criteria (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden)
Non-EU member states
4 using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City)
2 using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo and Montenegro)
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Eurozone participation
European Union member states
  20 in the eurozone
  1 in ERM II, without an opt-out (Bulgaria)
  1 in ERM II, with an opt-out (Denmark)
  5 not in ERM II, but obliged to join the eurozone on meeting the convergence criteria (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, and Sweden)
Non–EU member states
  4 using the euro with a monetary agreement (Andorra, Monaco, San Marino, and Vatican City)
  2 using the euro unilaterally (Kosovo and Montenegro)

While the Hungarian government has been planning since 2003 to replace the Hungarian forint with the euro, as of 2023, there is no target date and the forint is not part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM II). An economic study in 2008 found that the adoption of the euro would increase foreign investment in Hungary by 30%, [1] although current governor of the Hungarian National Bank and former Minister of the National Economy György Matolcsy said they did not want to give up the country's independence regarding corporate tax matters. [2]

Contents

Adopting the euro

Under the MSZP governments between 2002 and 2010

Hungary originally planned to adopt the euro as its official currency in 2007 or 2008. [3] Later 1 January 2010 became the target date, [4] [5] but that date was abandoned because of an excessively high budget deficit, inflation, and public debt. For years, Hungary could not meet any of the Maastricht criteria. [6] After the 2006 election, Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány introduced austerity measures, causing protests in late 2006 and an economic slowdown in 2007 and 2008. However, in 2007, the deficit had been reduced to less than 5% (from 9.2%) and approached the 3% threshold in 2008. In 2008 analysts claimed that Hungary could join ERM II in 2010 or 2011 and so might adopt the euro in 2013, but more feasibly in 2014, [7] or later, depending on eurozone crisis developments. On 8 July 2008, the then Finance Minister János Veres announced the first draft of a euro-adoption plan.

After the 2008 global financial crisis, the likelihood of a fast adoption seemed greater. [8] Hungary received aid from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the European Union and the World Bank. [9] In October 2008 the head of Hungary's largest bank called for a special application to join the eurozone. [10]

Ferenc Gyurcsány ran out of political capital in March 2009 to accept necessary measures.[ clarification needed ] The exchange rate reached 317 forints to one euro on 6 March. Gyurcsány initiated a constructive motion of no confidence against himself on 21 March and nominated Minister for Development and economist Gordon Bajnai as his replacement. The socialist and liberal parties accepted him as the new prime minister, with an interim government for one year from 14 April. Bajnai's premiership brought new austerity measures in Hungary. Thus, they may[ clarification needed ] keep the deficit under 4% in 2009 and the 2010 Budget calculations assumed 3.8%. The inflation outturn was near 3% as a result of the crisis, but because of the increase in VAT, it averaged 5% in the second half of the year. Because of the IMF loan, the public debt rose to nearly 80%. The central bank interest rate fell to 6.25% from 10.5% in 2009. The Bajnai government could not lead Hungary into the ERM II, and it stated that it had no plans to do so.

Under the Fidesz government from 2010

The soft Eurosceptic Fidesz won enough seats in the 2010 Hungarian parliamentary election to form a government on its own. Fidesz was not specific then about its economic priorities. Shortly after the formation of the new government, they announced their intention to keep the 2010 deficit at 3.8%. [11] After more pressure, in September they also accepted a reduction to 3% in 2011. [12] In 2010, Finance Minister György Matolcsy said they would discuss euro adoption in 2012. [13] Mihály Varga, another member of the party, talked about possible euro adoption in 2014 or 2015. [14]

However, in February 2011, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made clear that he does not expect the euro to be adopted in Hungary before 2020. [15] Later, Matolcsy also confirmed this statement. Orbán said the country was not yet ready to adopt the currency and they would not discuss the possibility until the public debt reached a 50% threshold. [16] The public debt-to-GDP ratio was 81.0% when Orbán's 50% target was set in 2011, and it is currently forecast to decline to 73.5% in 2016. [17]

In 2011, experts said that the earliest date that Hungary could adopt the euro was 2015. [18]

When the countries of the eurozone adopted the Euro-Plus Pact on 25 March 2011, Hungary decided to go along with the United Kingdom, Sweden and the Czech Republic and chose not to join the pact. Matolcsy said that they could agree with the most of its contents, but did not want to give up the country's independence regarding corporate tax matters. [2] As the Euro-Plus Pact does not feature any legal obligations - but only commitments to use various sets of voluntary tools to improve employment, competitiveness, fiscal responsibility and financial stability - joining this pact would not lead to a requirement for Hungary to abandon their current corporate tax method.

In April 2013, Viktor Orbán proclaimed euro adoption would not happen until the Hungarian purchasing power parity weighted GDP per capita had reached 90% of the eurozone average. [19] According to Eurostat, this relative percentage rose from 57.0% in 2004 to 63.4% in 2014. [20] If the same pace of "catching up" progress was to be expected in the future as in the past ten years (6.4% per decade), Hungary would only reach Orbán's 90% target and adopt the euro in 2056. Although, Hungary could potentially also reach Orbán's 90% target and adopt the euro in 2033, if being able for the upcoming period to sustain the same 1.4% of annual improvements in the figure as achieved from 2013 to 2014. Shortly after Orbán had been re-elected as Prime Minister for another four-year term in April 2014, [21] the Hungarian Central Bank announced that they planned to introduce a new series of forint banknotes in 2018. [22] In June 2015, Orbán declared that his government would no longer entertain the idea of replacing the forint with the euro in 2020, as was previously suggested, and instead expected the forint to remain "stable and strong for the next several decades", [23] although, in July 2016, National Economy Minister Mihály Varga suggested that country could adopt the euro by the "end of the decade", but only if economic trends continue to improve and the common currency becomes more stable. [24] [25] No official target date has been set for euro adoption.

Public opinion

Public support for the euro in Hungary

The following are polls on the question of whether Hungary should abolish the forint and adopt the euro.

Date (survey taken)Date (survey published)YesNoUndecided / Don't knowConducted by
April 2023June 202372%25%3%Eurobarometer [26]
April 2022June 202270%29%1%Eurobarometer [27]
May 2021July 202169%26%5%Eurobarometer [28]
June 2020July 202066%31%3%Eurobarometer [29]
April 2019June 201966%28%6%Eurobarometer [30]
April 2018May 201859%32%9%Eurobarometer [31]
April 2017May 201757%39%4%Eurobarometer [32]
April 2016May 201657%37%6%Eurobarometer [33]
April 2015May 201560%35%5%Eurobarometer [34]
April 2014June 201464%30%6%Eurobarometer [35]
April 2013June 201354%39%7%Eurobarometer [36]
April 2012July 201258%34%8%Eurobarometer [37]
November 2011July 201254%36%10%Eurobarometer [38]
May 2011August 201147%42%11%Eurobarometer [39]
September 2010December 201047%41%12%Eurobarometer [40]
May 2010July 201054%36%10%Eurobarometer [41]
September 2009November 200954%38%8%Eurobarometer [42]
May 2009December 200958%34%8%Eurobarometer [43]
May 2008July 200847%43%10%Eurobarometer [44]
September 2007November 200748%38%14%Eurobarometer [45]
March 2007May 200749%37%14%Eurobarometer [46]
September 2006November 200646%45%9%Eurobarometer [47]
April 2006June 200656%35%9%Eurobarometer [48]
September 2005November 200549%37%14%Eurobarometer [49]
September 2004October 200456%33%11%Eurobarometer [50]

The Maastricht criteria

Inflation

Inflation slowed down to 2.2% in 2006. However, after the austerity measures it was much higher than the criteria until the crisis. The crisis slowed it down to 2.9%, but in the end it was above the Maastricht criteria in 2009. The annual inflation was 0.9% in October 2013.

Budget deficit

The budget deficit was 9.2% in the election year of 2006. After the austerity measures, it neared the 3% threshold in 2008. The deficit was planned to be 3.9% in 2009, but was ultimately above 4%. The 2010 budget planned 3.8%, but it also went over 4%. Hungary's general government deficit, excluding the effect of one-off measures, was 2.43% of GDP in 2011, lower than the 2.94% target and under the 3% threshold for the first time since 2004. Hungary recorded a budget deficit of 1.9% in 2012, well below previous expectations. The budget deficit is expected to be under the 3% threshold in 2013 as well. [51]

Public debt

Public debt accounted for 80.1% of GDP in 2010, [52] above the 60% target. However, the EU might accept a Hungarian public debt which declines for at least 2 years.

Interest rate

The central bank's interest rate was raised by 3% to 11.5% in October 2008, because of the crisis. However, then it was lowered consecutively 14 times until 27 April 2010 down to 5.25%. Then it was raised 5 times until 21 December 2011 up to 7%. Since then the rate has declined 35 times, as of February 2019 the interest rate is 0.90% [53]

ERM-II membership

As the conservative government in 2013 did not plan to adopt the euro before 2020, there is no discussion about a possible ERM II membership.

Convergence status

Convergence criteria
Assessment monthCountry HICP inflation rate [54] [nb 1] Excessive deficit procedure [55] Exchange rateLong-term interest rate [56] [nb 2] Compatibility of legislation
Budget deficit to GDP [57] Debt-to-GDP ratio [58] ERM II member [59] Change in rate [60] [61] [nb 3]
2012 ECB Report [nb 4] Reference valuesMax. 3.1% [nb 5]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
None open(as of 31 March 2012)Min. 2 years
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2011)
Max. 5.80% [nb 7]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Yes [62] [63]
(as of 31 Mar 2012)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2011) [64]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2011) [64]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 4.3%OpenNo-1.4%8.01%No
-4.3% (surplus)80.6%
2013 ECB Report [nb 8] Reference valuesMax. 2.7% [nb 9]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
None open(as of 30 Apr 2013)Min. 2 years
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2012)
Max. 5.5% [nb 9]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Yes [65] [66]
(as of 30 Apr 2013)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2012) [67]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2012) [67]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 4.6%Open(Closed in June 2013)No-3.5%6.97%Un­known
1.9%79.2%
2014 ECB Report [nb 10] Reference valuesMax. 1.7% [nb 11]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
None open(as of 30 Apr 2014)Min. 2 years
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2013)
Max. 6.2% [nb 12]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Yes [68] [69]
(as of 30 Apr 2014)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2013) [70]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2013) [70]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 1.0%NoneNo-2.6%5.80%No
2.2%79.2%
2016 ECB Report [nb 13] Reference valuesMax. 0.7% [nb 14]
(as of 30 Apr 2016)
None open(as of 18 May 2016)Min. 2 years
(as of 18 May 2016)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2015)
Max. 4.0% [nb 15]
(as of 30 Apr 2016)
Yes [71] [72]
(as of 18 May 2016)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2015) [73]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2015) [73]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 0.4%NoneNo-0.4%3.4%No
2.0%75.3%
2018 ECB Report [nb 16] Reference valuesMax. 1.9% [nb 17]
(as of 31 Mar 2018)
None open(as of 3 May 2018)Min. 2 years
(as of 3 May 2018)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2017)
Max. 3.2% [nb 18]
(as of 31 Mar 2018)
Yes [74] [75]
(as of 20 March 2018)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2017) [76]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2017) [76]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 2.2%NoneNo0.7%2.7%No
2.0%73.6%
2020 ECB Report [nb 19] Reference valuesMax. 1.8% [nb 20]
(as of 31 Mar 2020)
None open(as of 7 May 2020)Min. 2 years
(as of 7 May 2020)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2019)
Max. 2.9% [nb 21]
(as of 31 Mar 2020)
Yes [77] [78]
(as of 24 March 2020)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2019) [79]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2019) [79]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 3.7%NoneNo-2.0%2.3%No
2.0%66.3%
2022 ECB Report [nb 22] Reference valuesMax. 4.9% [nb 23]
(as of April 2022)
None open(as of 25 May 2022)Min. 2 years
(as of 25 May 2022)
Max. ±15% [nb 6]
(for 2021)
Max. 2.6% [nb 23]
(as of April 2022)
Yes [80] [81]
(as of 25 March 2022)
Max. 3.0%
(Fiscal year 2021) [80]
Max. 60%
(Fiscal year 2021) [80]
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 6.8%NoneNo-2.1%4.1%No
6.8% (exempt)76.8% (exempt)
  Criterion fulfilled
  Criterion potentially fulfilled: If the budget deficit exceeds the 3% limit, but is "close" to this value (the European Commission has deemed 3.5% to be close by in the past), [82] then the criteria can still potentially be fulfilled if either the deficits in the previous two years are significantly declining towards the 3% limit, or if the excessive deficit is the result of exceptional circumstances which are temporary in nature (i.e. one-off expenditures triggered by a significant economic downturn, or by the implementation of economic reforms that are expected to deliver a significant positive impact on the government's future fiscal budgets). However, even if such "special circumstances" are found to exist, additional criteria must also be met to comply with the fiscal budget criterion. [83] [84] Additionally, if the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 60% but is "sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace" it can be deemed to be in compliance. [84]
  Criterion not fulfilled
Notes
  1. The rate of increase of the 12-month average HICP over the prior 12-month average must be no more than 1.5% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the similar HICP inflation rates in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these 3 states have a HICP rate significantly below the similarly averaged HICP rate for the eurozone (which according to ECB practice means more than 2% below), and if this low HICP rate has been primarily caused by exceptional circumstances (i.e. severe wage cuts or a strong recession), then such a state is not included in the calculation of the reference value and is replaced by the EU state with the fourth lowest HICP rate.
  2. The arithmetic average of the annual yield of 10-year government bonds as of the end of the past 12 months must be no more than 2.0% larger than the unweighted arithmetic average of the bond yields in the 3 EU member states with the lowest HICP inflation. If any of these states have bond yields which are significantly larger than the similarly averaged yield for the eurozone (which according to previous ECB reports means more than 2% above) and at the same time does not have complete funding access to financial markets (which is the case for as long as a government receives bailout funds), then such a state is not be included in the calculation of the reference value.
  3. The change in the annual average exchange rate against the euro.
  4. Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2012. [62]
  5. Sweden, Ireland and Slovenia were the reference states. [62]
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 The maximum allowed change in rate is ± 2.25% for Denmark.
  7. Sweden and Slovenia were the reference states, with Ireland excluded as an outlier. [62]
  8. Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2013. [65]
  9. 1 2 Sweden, Latvia and Ireland were the reference states. [65]
  10. Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2014. [68]
  11. Latvia, Portugal and Ireland were the reference states, with Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus excluded as outliers. [68]
  12. Latvia, Ireland and Portugal were the reference states. [68]
  13. Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2016. [71]
  14. Bulgaria, Slovenia and Spain were the reference states, with Cyprus and Romania excluded as outliers. [71]
  15. Slovenia, Spain and Bulgaria were the reference states. [71]
  16. Reference values from the ECB convergence report of May 2018. [74]
  17. Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states. [74]
  18. Cyprus, Ireland and Finland were the reference states. [74]
  19. Reference values from the ECB convergence report of June 2020. [77]
  20. Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states. [77]
  21. Portugal, Cyprus, and Italy were the reference states. [77]
  22. Reference values from the Convergence Report of June 2022. [80]
  23. 1 2 France, Finland, and Greece were the reference states. [80]

See also

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Bulgaria plans to adopt the euro and become the 21st member state of the eurozone. The Bulgarian lev has been on the currency board since 1997 through a fixed exchange rate of the lev against the Deutsche Mark and the euro. Bulgaria's target date for introduction of the euro is 1 January 2025, which would make the euro only the second national currency of the country since the lev was introduced over 140 years ago. The official exchange rate is 1.95583 lev for 1 euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Romania and the euro</span> Overview of the relationship between Romania and the Euro

Romania's national currency is the leu. After Romania joined the European Union (EU) in 2007, the country became required to replace the leu with the euro once it meets all four euro convergence criteria, as stated in article 140 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. As of 2023, the only currency on the market is the leu and the euro is not yet used in shops. The Romanian leu is not part of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, although Romanian authorities are working to prepare the changeover to the euro. To achieve the currency changeover, Romania must undergo at least two years of stability within the limits of the convergence criteria. The current Romanian government established a self-imposed criterion to reach a certain level of real convergence as a steering anchor to decide the appropriate target year for ERM II membership and Euro adoption. In March 2018, the National Plan for the Adoption of the Euro scheduled the date for euro adoption in Romania as 2024. Nevertheless, in early 2021, this date was postponed to 2027 or 2028, and once again to 2029 in late 2021 and then moved up to 2026.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sweden and the euro</span> Overview of the relationship between Sweden and the euro

Sweden does not currently use the euro as its currency and has no plans to replace the existing Swedish krona in the near future. Sweden's Treaty of Accession of 1994 made it subject to the Treaty of Maastricht, which obliges states to join the eurozone once they meet the necessary conditions. Sweden maintains that joining the European Exchange Rate Mechanism II, participation in which for at least two years is a requirement for euro adoption, is voluntary, and has chosen to remain outside pending public approval by a referendum, thereby intentionally avoiding the fulfilment of the adoption requirements.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United Kingdom and the euro</span>

The United Kingdom did not seek to adopt the euro as its official currency for the duration of its membership of the European Union (EU), and secured an opt-out at the euro's creation via the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, wherein the Bank of England would only be a member of the European System of Central Banks.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Denmark and the euro</span> Overview of the relationship between Denmark and the euro

Denmark uses the krone as its currency and does not use the euro, having negotiated the right to opt out from participation under the Maastricht Treaty of 1992. In 2000, the government held a referendum on introducing the euro, which was defeated with 53.2% voting no and 46.8% voting yes. The Danish krone is part of the ERM II mechanism, so its exchange rate is tied to within 2.25% of the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Enlargement of the eurozone</span>

The enlargement of the eurozone is an ongoing process within the European Union (EU). All member states of the European Union, except Denmark which negotiated an opt-out from the provisions, are obliged to adopt the euro as their sole currency once they meet the criteria, which include: complying with the debt and deficit criteria outlined by the Stability and Growth Pact, keeping inflation and long-term governmental interest rates below certain reference values, stabilising their currency's exchange rate versus the euro by participating in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and ensuring that their national laws comply with the ECB statute, ESCB statute and articles 130+131 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The obligation for EU member states to adopt the euro was first outlined by article 109.1j of the Maastricht Treaty of 1992, which became binding on all new member states by the terms of their treaties of accession.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sixpack (EU law)</span> EU economic governance

Within the framework of EU economic governance, Sixpack describes a set of European legislative measures to reform the Stability and Growth Pact and introduces greater macroeconomic surveillance, in response to the European debt crisis of 2009. These measures were bundled into a "six pack" of regulations, introduced in September 2010 in two versions respectively by the European Commission and a European Council task force. In March 2011, the ECOFIN council reached a preliminary agreement for the content of the Sixpack with the commission, and negotiations for endorsement by the European Parliament then started. Ultimately it entered into force 13 December 2011, after one year of preceding negotiations. The six regulations aim at strengthening the procedures to reduce public deficits and address macroeconomic imbalances.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Croatia and the euro</span>

Croatia adopted the euro as its currency on 1 January 2023, becoming the 20th member state of the eurozone. A fixed conversion rate was set at 1 € = 7.5345 kn.

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