A Hebert Box (pronounced AY-bear, also known as Hebert's Box) is one of two regions of the tropical Atlantic Ocean that are useful as predictors of hurricanes that will strike South Florida, US. They are named for former National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecaster Paul Hebert, who observed in the late 1970s that most strong hurricanes (characterized as those with winds exceeding 110 miles per hour (177 km/h)) which had struck South Florida since 1900 had also passed through one of these two small 335-mile-by-335-mile (517-km-by-517-km) square geographic regions. [1]
Examples include unnamed hurricanes in 1926, 1928, 1933, as well as the major hurricanes Donna, Betsy, Charley, Wilma, Irma, and Ian all of which came through an Hebert Box. Collectively these storms killed more than 5,000 people in Florida. Conversely, storms such as the major hurricanes Floyd, Gert in 1999, and Dorian in 2019, which were headed for Florida at one point, missed the Hebert Boxes and turned away from Florida at the last minute. [1]
The first Hebert Box is located east of Puerto Rico over the US Virgin Islands, between 15° and 20° north latitude and 60° to 65° west longitude. This was the first area that Hebert discovered, and provides an indication for the behavior of Cape Verde type storms, which form off of the western coast of Africa near the islands of the same name. This first box is useful for storms that typically form in the early part of the Atlantic hurricane season (June through early September).
The second Hebert Box is located over the Cayman Islands between 15° and 20° north latitude and 80° to 85° west longitude. This was the second box discovered, and provides an indication for the behavior of storms that will move north to hit Florida. These are usually late-season storms that form in this region in late September and October, and this box is mostly concerned with them. [2]
The geography of the Hebert Boxes is the key to their use as predictors. The boxes are located such that hurricanes have plenty of space to intensify after passing through them, and the prevailing winds tend to push them towards Florida. Many of the hurricanes that have passed through the Herbert Box #1 form in the far eastern Atlantic like Irma did. To qualify as a possible threat to Florida they must have 110 mph winds and track through the box rather than forming outside the box like Katrina in 2005 or crossing the box as a weak hurricane or tropical storm. [3] Conversely, if they pass outside the box they are either too close to land to intensify much, or are far enough away from land that they are more subject to the influences of steering winds and other atmospheric conditions. These tend to either push the hurricane more westward across the Caribbean Sea towards the Dominican Republic, Haiti, Cuba, or into the Gulf of Mexico where they threaten Mexico and the Gulf Coast states, or eastwards causing them to curve outwards over the Atlantic and miss landfall altogether. [1]
While these boxes provide an indication that a hurricane may threaten South Florida, a hurricane does not have to pass through one to strike there, as were the cases with the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 and Hurricane Andrew, though the latter did skirt the edges of the eastern box. Additionally, a hurricane which does pass through a Hebert Box can very easily miss Florida, or indeed any landfall entirely. [4] Hurricane Maria passed through one of the boxes but following a landfall in Puerto Rico, recurved well away from Florida. Gilbert also passed through one in the western Caribbean but did not turn north to Florida. Hebert himself acknowledged that the boxes are not a guarantee of hurricane landfall either way, but cautions that if a hurricane passes through one, "really, really pay attention. We worry plenty in August and September when one goes through that box, and we have a certain comfort level when one misses the box." [1]
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was a very deadly, destructive, and active Atlantic hurricane season, with over 3,200 deaths and more than $61 billion in damage. More than half of the 16 tropical cyclones brushed or struck the United States. Due to the development of a Modoki El Niño – a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific – activity was above average. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, though the season's last storm, Otto, dissipated on December 3, extending the season beyond its traditional boundaries. The first storm, Alex, developed offshore of the Southeastern United States on July 31, one of the latest dates on record to see the formation of the first system in an Atlantic hurricane season. It brushed the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, causing one death and $7.5 million (2004 USD) in damage. Several storms caused only minor damage, including tropical storms Bonnie, Earl, Hermine, and Matthew. In addition, hurricanes Danielle, Karl, and Lisa, Tropical Depression Ten, Subtropical Storm Nicole and Tropical Storm Otto had no effect on land while tropical cyclones. The season was the first to exceed 200 units in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) since 1995, mostly from Hurricane Ivan, the storm produced the highest ACE. Ivan generated the second-highest ACE in the Atlantic, only behind 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane.
The 2001 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active Atlantic hurricane season that produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. The season officially lasted from June 1, 2001, to November 30, 2001, dates which by convention limit the period of each year when tropical cyclones tend to form in the Atlantic Ocean basin. The season began with Tropical Storm Allison on June 4, and ended with Hurricane Olga, which dissipated on December 6.
The 2000 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active hurricane season, but featured the latest first named storm in a hurricane season since 1992. The hurricane season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. It was slightly above average due to a La Niña weather pattern although most of the storms were weak. It was also the only season to have two of the storms affect Ireland. The first cyclone, Tropical Depression One, developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico on June 7 and dissipated after an uneventful duration. However, it would be almost two months before the first named storm, Alberto, formed near Cape Verde; Alberto also dissipated with no effects on land. Several other tropical cyclones—Tropical Depression Two, Tropical Depression Four, Chris, Ernesto, Nadine, and an unnamed subtropical storm—did not impact land. Five additional storms—Tropical Depression Nine, Florence, Isaac, Joyce, and Leslie—minimally affected land areas.
The 1973 Atlantic hurricane season was a below average tropical cyclone season overall. Of the 24 tropical or subtropical cyclones which developed, only 8 became named storms, and of those, only 4 became hurricanes, with 1 reaching major hurricane status on the newly implemented Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale.
The 1978 Atlantic hurricane season was a slightly above average hurricane season in terms of number of named storms. Eleven tropical cyclones were named in all, and five of these became hurricanes; two of the five became a major hurricane. This was also the last Atlantic hurricane season to use an all-female naming list. The season officially began on June 1, 1978, and ended on November 30, 1978. These dates, adopted by convention, denote the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic basin. However, the formation of subtropical or tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as shown by the formation of an unnamed subtropical storm on January 18.
The 1984 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active since 1971, though the season was below average in hurricanes and major hurricanes. It officially began on June 1, 1984, and lasted until November 30, 1984. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The 1984 season was an active one in terms of named storms, but most of them were weak and stayed at sea. Most of the cyclones tracked through the northwest subtropical Atlantic west of the 50th meridian to near the Eastern coast of the United States between mid-August and early October. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Klaus, which caused $152 million (1984 dollars) in damage in Puerto Rico. Hurricane Diana was the first hurricane to strike a nuclear power plant without incident; it was also the first major hurricane to strike the U.S. East Coast in nearly 20 years. Also of note was Hurricane Lili, which lasted well after the official end of the season. It was downgraded from a named storm on December 24. Damage overall from the tropical cyclones in 1984 totaled $228.7 million. Unusually, no hurricanes developed from tropical waves in 1984, which usually are the source of the strongest storms in an Atlantic hurricane season.
The 1990 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active Atlantic hurricane season since 1969, with a total of 14 named storms. The season also featured eight hurricanes, one of which intensified into a major hurricane. It officially began on June 1, 1990, and lasted until November 30, 1990. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, tropical cyclogenesis can occur prior to the start of the season, as demonstrated with Tropical Depression One, which formed in the Caribbean Sea on May 24.
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 2003 to feature tropical activity both before and after the official bounds of the season. There were an above-average number of named storms during the season – 15, however many storms were weak and short-lived. Despite the predominance of weak systems, this was the first season on record to feature more than one Category 5 landfalling hurricane. This would not happen again until 2017. It produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. It officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period during which most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean, although as shown by Subtropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Olga in early May and early December, respectively, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. The first system, Subtropical Storm Andrea, developed on May 9, while the last storm, Tropical Storm Olga, dissipated on December 13. The most intense hurricane, Dean, was, at the time, the third most intense landfalling Atlantic storm on record. It was the second on record in which an Atlantic hurricane, Felix, and an eastern Pacific hurricane, Henriette, made landfall on the same day. September had a then record-tying eight storms, until it was surpassed in 2020. However, the strengths and durations of most of the storms were low.
The 1983 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the north Atlantic Ocean. It was the least active Atlantic hurricane season in 53 years, during which four storms formed. The season officially began on June 1, 1983 and ended November 30, 1983. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most systems form. The first named storm, Hurricane Alicia, formed on August 15. The last storm of the season, Tropical Storm Dean, dissipated on September 30.
The 1924 Cuba hurricane is the first officially recorded Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS), as well as the first Atlantic hurricane with sustained wind speeds of at least 135, 140, and 145 knots. It is also one of two hurricanes to make landfall on Cuba at Category 5 intensity, the other being Hurricane Irma in 2017 – both are also tied for the strongest Cuban landfall in terms of maximum sustained winds. The hurricane formed on October 14 in the western Caribbean, slowly organizing as it tracked northwestward. By October 16, the storm attained hurricane status to the east of the Yucatán Peninsula, and subsequently executed a small counterclockwise loop. On Friday, October 18, the hurricane intensified rapidly and, on the next day, reached an estimated peak intensity of 165 mph (266 km/h). Shortly thereafter, it struck extreme western Cuba at peak intensity, becoming the strongest hurricane on record to hit the country. Later the hurricane weakened greatly, striking southwestern Florida with winds of 90 mph (140 km/h) in a sparsely populated region. While crossing the state it weakened to tropical storm status, and after accelerating east-northeastward, it was absorbed by a cold front on October 23, to the south of Bermuda.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season was the second in a group of three very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, each with 19 named storms, tied with 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2012. The above-average activity was mostly due to a La Niña that persisted during the previous year. Of the season's 19 tropical storms, only seven strengthened into hurricanes, and four of those became major hurricanes: Irene, Katia, Ophelia, and Rina. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period during each year in which most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. However, the first tropical storm of the season, Arlene, did not develop until nearly a month later. The final system, Tropical Storm Sean, dissipated over the open Atlantic on November 11.
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average Atlantic hurricane season that produced eleven tropical cyclones, nine named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. It officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates that conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic basin. The season's first tropical cyclone, Tropical Depression One, developed on May 28, while the final storm, Hurricane Ida, dissipated on November 10. The most intense hurricane, Bill, was a powerful Cape Verde-type hurricane that affected areas from the Leeward Islands to Newfoundland. The season featured the lowest number of tropical cyclones since the 1997 season, and only one system, Claudette, made landfall in the United States. Forming from the interaction of a tropical wave and an upper-level low, Claudette made landfall on the Florida Panhandle with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) before quickly dissipating over Alabama. The storm killed two people and caused $228,000 in damage.
The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average hurricane season in terms of named storms and major hurricanes, though average in terms of number of hurricanes overall. It produced nine tropical cyclones, eight of which became named storms; six storms became hurricanes and two intensified further into major hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first storm of the season, Arthur, developed on July 1, while the final storm, Hanna, dissipated on October 28, about a month prior to the end of the season.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was a devastating and extremely active Atlantic hurricane season, and the costliest on record, with a damage total of at least $294.92 billion (USD). The season featured 17 named storms, 10 hurricanes, and 6 major hurricanes. Most of the season's damage was due to hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Another notable hurricane, Nate, was the worst natural disaster in Costa Rican history. These four storm names were retired following the season due to the number of deaths and amount of damage they caused.
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season was the third in a consecutive series of above-average and damaging Atlantic hurricane seasons, featuring 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, which caused a total of over $50 billion in damages and at least 172 deaths. More than 98% of the total damage was caused by two hurricanes. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and ended on November 30, 2018. These dates historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the formation of Tropical Storm Alberto on May 25, making this the fourth consecutive year in which a storm developed before the official start of the season. The season concluded with Oscar transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on October 31, almost a month before the official end.
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, in terms of number of systems. It featured a total of 31 tropical or subtropical cyclones, with all but one cyclone becoming a named storm. Of the 30 named storms, 14 developed into hurricanes, and a record-tying seven further intensified into major hurricanes. It was the second and final season to use the Greek letter storm naming system, the first being 2005, the previous record. Of the 30 named storms, 11 of them made landfall in the contiguous United States, breaking the record of nine set in 1916. During the season, 27 tropical storms established a new record for earliest formation date by storm number. This season also featured a record ten tropical cyclones that underwent rapid intensification, tying it with 1995, as well as tying the record for most Category 4 hurricanes in a singular season in the Atlantic Basin. This unprecedented activity was fueled by a La Niña that developed in the summer months of 2020, continuing a stretch of above-average seasonal activity that began in 2016. Despite the record-high activity, this was the first season since 2015 in which no Category 5 hurricanes formed.
The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season was an event in the annual tropical cyclone season in the north Atlantic Ocean. This Atlantic hurricane season saw above-normal activity; it was the seventh most active season on record and the most active since 2005. The season officially began on June 1, 2017 and ended on November 30, 2017. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most tropical systems form. However, storm formation is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated in 2017 by the formation of the season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Arlene, on April 19. The final storm of the season, Tropical Storm Rina degenerated to a remnant area of low pressure on November 9.
Hurricane Irma was an extremely powerful Cape Verde hurricane that caused extensive damage in the Caribbean and Florida. Lasting from late August to mid-September 2017, the storm was the strongest open-Atlantic tropical cyclone on record and the first Category 5 hurricane to strike the Leeward Islands. Classified as the ninth named storm, fourth hurricane, and second major hurricane of the hyperactive 2017 Atlantic hurricane season, Irma developed from a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands on August 30. Favorable conditions allowed the cyclone to become a hurricane on the following day and then rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by September 1 as it moved generally westward across the Atlantic. However, dry air and eyewall replacement cycles disrupted further strengthening, with fluctuations in intensity during the next few days. Irma resumed deepening upon encountering warmer sea surface temperatures, while approaching the Lesser Antilles on September 4. The system reached Category 5 intensity on the following day and peaked with winds of 180 mph (290 km/h) shortly thereafter.
During 2017 tropical cyclones formed within seven different tropical cyclone basins, located within various parts of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. During the year, a total of 146 tropical cyclones had formed. 88 tropical cyclones had been named by either a Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) or a Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (TCWC). The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone was Hurricane Maria with a minimum barometric pressure of 908 mbar and killing 3,000 people in Puerto Rico and Dominica. The costliest tropical cyclone of the year was Hurricane Harvey in the Atlantic, which struck Houston metropolitan area in August causing US$125 billion in damage, tying with Hurricane Katrina as the costliest tropical cyclone worldwide.