List of asteroid close approaches to Earth in 2019

Last updated

Time of discovery of asteroids which came closer to Earth than the Moon in 2019
Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 47 (57.3%)< 24 hours before: 11 (13.4%)up to 7 days before: 20 (24.4%)> one week before: 4 (4.9%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)
  •   After closest approach: 47 (57.3%)
  •   < 24 hours before: 11 (13.4%)
  •   up to 7 days before: 20 (24.4%)
  •   > one week before: 4 (4.9%)
  •   > 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)
  •   > one year before: 0 (0.0%)
Simulated animation of 66391 Moshup (previously KW4), a binary system asteroid, which came within 15 lunar distances in May 2019 1999 KW4 animated.gif
Simulated animation of 66391 Moshup (previously KW4), a binary system asteroid, which came within 15 lunar distances in May 2019

Below is the list of asteroid close approaches to Earth in 2019.

Contents

Timeline of known close approaches less than one lunar distance from Earth

A list of known near-Earth asteroid close approaches less than 1 lunar distance (0.0025696 AU (384,410 km; 238,860 mi)) from Earth in 2019. [note 1] 2019 has been a notable year in that an asteroid was detected prior to impact (2019 MO). This has only happened three times previously (see List of successfully predicted asteroid impacts). In addition, for the first year ever, four close approaches of previously undiscovered asteroids were successfully predicted over a week in advance.

For reference, the radius of Earth is approximately 0.0000426 AU (6,370 km; 3,960 mi) or 0.0166 lunar distances.
Geosynchronous satellites have an orbit with semi-major axis length of 0.000282 AU (42,200 km; 26,200 mi) or 0.110 lunar distances. A number of known asteroids came closer than this in 2019, notably including 2019 MO which was detected a few hours before it impacted, only the fourth asteroid impact in history to have been successfully predicted in advance.
While most asteroids on this list are confirmed, well-observed unconfirmed objects with a 50% or greater chance of passing within 1 LD of the Earth are included as well.

The largest asteroid to pass within 1 LD of Earth in 2019 was 2019 OK with an estimated diameter of around 95 meters and an absolute magnitude of 23.3. The fastest asteroid to pass within 1 LD of Earth in 2019 was 2019 FC1 that passed Earth with a velocity with respect to Earth of 25.9 km/s (58,000 mph). [1] [note 2]

  Rows highlighted red indicate objects which were not discovered until after closest approach

  Rows highlighted yellow indicate objects discovered less than 24 hours before closest approach

  Rows highlighted green indicate objects discovered more than one week before closest approach

  Rows highlighted turquoise indicate objects discovered more than 7 weeks before closest approach

  Rows highlighted blue indicate objects discovered more than one year before closest approach (i.e.
objects successfully cataloged on a previous orbit, rather than being detected during final approach)

Date of
closest
approach		Date
discovered		 Object Nominal geocentric
distance (AU) [note 3] 		Nominal geocentric
distance (LD)		Size (m)
(approximate)		(H)
(abs. mag)		Closer
approach
to Moon 		Refs [2] [3]
2019-01-082019-01-08 2019 AS5 0.000101 AU (15,100 km; 9,400 mi)0.0390.7–2.532.3— data  · 2019 AS5
2019-01-122019-01-112019 AE90.000666 AU (99,600 km; 61,900 mi)0.268–2527.2— data  · 2019 AE9
2019-01-122019-01-16P10LI6O0.0023 AU (340,000 km; 210,000 mi)0.90 [note 4] 3–1828.6 ? Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-01-162019-01-17 2019 BO 0.000460 AU (68,800 km; 42,800 mi)0.185–1828.0— data  · 2019 BO
2019-01-172019-01-16P10LGkb0.000225 AU (33,700 km; 20,900 mi)0.088 [note 5] 1–331.6— Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-01-242019-01-252019 BV10.000904 AU (135,200 km; 84,000 mi)0.353–1428.7— data  · 2019 BV1
2019-01-272019-01-28C04U1L20.0015 AU (220,000 km; 140,000 mi)0.60 [note 6] 2–1229.4 ? Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-01-272019-01-28 2019 BZ3 0.000322 AU (48,200 km; 29,900 mi)0.134–1228.7— data  · 2019 BZ3
2019-02-092019-02-09C03CZA10.00175 AU (262,000 km; 163,000 mi)0.68 [note 7] 9–3026.9— Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-02-112019-02-122019 CN50.000793 AU (118,600 km; 73,700 mi)0.316–1927.8— data  · 2019 CN5
2019-02-262019-02-282019 DG20.00158 AU (236,000 km; 147,000 mi)0.614–1428.5— data  · 2019 DG2
2019-02-262019-02-262019 DF0.00120 AU (180,000 km; 112,000 mi)0.472–829.7— data  · 2019 DF
2019-03-012019-03-012019 EH10.000157 AU (23,500 km; 14,600 mi)0.0612–630.1— data  · 2019 EH1
2019-03-042019-03-05C09Q4H20.000178 AU (26,600 km; 16,500 mi)0.069 [note 8] 1–331.9— Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (T)
2019-03-042019-03-04C04H9310.0014 AU (210,000 km; 130,000 mi)0.54 [note 9] 5–1928.0 ? Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-03-062019-03-07C0A1UN20.0000526 AU (7,870 km; 4,890 mi)0.020 [note 10] 0.4–1.333.5—
2019-03-132019-03-142019 EN20.00221 AU (331,000 km; 205,000 mi)0.866–2127.6— data  · 2019 EN2
2019-03-222019-03-092019 EA20.00205 AU (307,000 km; 191,000 mi)0.8014–4425.9— data  · 2019 EA2
2019-03-232019-03-252019 FQ0.00220 AU (329,000 km; 205,000 mi)0.8610–2327.1— data  · 2019 FQ2
2019-03-282019-03-292019 FC10.00069 AU (103,000 km; 64,000 mi)0.2720–4525.6 ? data  · 2019 FC1
2019-03-312019-03-292019 FV10.00223 AU (334,000 km; 207,000 mi)0.874.6–1028.8 ? data  · 2019 FV1
2019-03-312019-04-032019 GP210.00238 AU (356,000 km; 221,000 mi)0.933.0–6.629.8 ? data  · 2019 GP21
2019-04-042020-02-15 2020 CD3 0.0000877 AU (13,120 km; 8,150 mi)0.0341.9–3.531.7— data  · 2020 CD3
2019-04-062019-04-05A10cQ6k0.000989 AU (148,000 km; 91,900 mi)0.39 [note 11] 6.7–2227.5—
2019-04-122019-04-092019 GN200.00253 AU (378,000 km; 235,000 mi)0.9814–3126.4 ? data  · 2019 GN20
2019-04-182019-04-09 2019 GC6 0.00146 AU (218,000 km; 136,000 mi)0.5713–3026.5 ? data  · 2019 GC6
2019-04-202019-04-212019 HE0.00150 AU (224,000 km; 139,000 mi)0.5812–2826.7 ? data  · 2019 HE
2019-04-302019-05-012019 JK0.00178 AU (266,000 km; 165,000 mi)0.696.7–1528 ? data  · 2019 JK
2019-05-012019-05-01C093PF10.000588 AU (88,000 km; 54,700 mi)0.23 [note 12] 1.9–6.230.2—
2019-05-022019-05-032019 JX10.00120 AU (180,000 km; 112,000 mi)0.474.0–8.929.1 ? data  · 2019 JX1
2019-05-032019-05-04C0M3DQ20.000879 AU (131,500 km; 81,700 mi)0.34 [note 13] 5.1–1628.1—
2019-05-052019-05-062019 JY20.00098 AU (147,000 km; 91,000 mi)0.383.2–7.229.6 ? data  · 2019 JY2
2019-05-162019-05-142019 JH70.00048 AU (72,000 km; 45,000 mi)0.193.1–7.029.6 ? data  · 2019 JH7
2019-05-282019-05-262019 KT0.00217 AU (325,000 km; 202,000 mi)0.8513–2926.6 ? data  · 2019 KT
2019-06-062019-06-062019 LY40.00056 AU (84,000 km; 52,000 mi)0.227.3–1627.8 ? data  · 2019 LY4
2019-06-082019-06-022019 LW40.00166 AU (248,000 km; 154,000 mi)0.659.3–2127.3 ? data  · 2019 LW4
2019-06-222019-06-22 2019 MO ImpactImpact3–1029.3 ? data  · 2019 MO  · [4]  · [5]
2019-07-022019-07-042019 NK10.00177 AU (265,000 km; 165,000 mi)0.692.6–5.730.1 ? data  · 2019 NK1
2019-07-092019-06-292019 MB40.00211 AU (316,000 km; 196,000 mi)0.8216–3526.2 ? data  · 2019 MB4
2019-07-092019-07-092019 NF70.00253 AU (378,000 km; 235,000 mi)0.986.4–1428.1 ? data  · 2019 NF7
2019-07-102019-07-072019 NN30.00214 AU (320,000 km; 199,000 mi)0.8329–6624.8 ? data  · 2019 NN3
2019-07-242019-07-212019 OD0.00239 AU (358,000 km; 222,000 mi)0.9354–12023.5 ? data  · 2019 OD
2019-07-252019-07-24 [note 14] 2019 OK 0.00048 AU (72,000 km; 45,000 mi)0.1959–13023.3 ? data  · 2019 OK
2019-07-282019-07-272019 OD30.00126 AU (188,000 km; 117,000 mi)0.4911–2526.9 ? data  · 2019 OD3
2019-07-292019-07-302019 ON30.00143 AU (214,000 km; 133,000 mi)0.567.4–1627.8 ? data  · 2019 ON3
2019-08-202019-08-222019 QB10.00083 AU (124,000 km; 77,000 mi)0.328.7–2027.4 ? data  · 2019 QB1
2019-08-202019-08-212019 QH20.00033 AU (49,000 km; 31,000 mi)0.132.2–5.030.4 ? data  · 2019 QH2
2019-08-222019-08-212019 QD0.00200 AU (299,000 km; 186,000 mi)0.784.7–1128.8 ? data  · 2019 QD
2019-08-262019-08-282019 QR80.00207 AU (310,000 km; 192,000 mi)0.806.6–1528 ? data  · 2019 QR8
2019-08-262019-08-272019 QQ30.00064 AU (96,000 km; 59,000 mi)0.253.7–8.229.3 ? data  · 2019 QQ3
2019-09-022019-09-032019 RQ0.00074 AU (111,000 km; 69,000 mi)0.292.1–4.630.6 ? data  · 2019 RQ
2019-09-052019-09-062019 RP10.00025 AU (37,000 km; 23,000 mi)0.107.3–1627.8 ? data  · 2019 RP1
2019-09-072019-09-052019 RC10.00123 AU (184,000 km; 114,000 mi)0.484.6–1028.8 ? data  · 2019 RC1
2019-09-162019-09-192019 SJ0.00163 AU (244,000 km; 152,000 mi)0.648.3–1927.5 ? data  · 2019 SJ
2019-09-212019-09-222019 SU20.00048 AU (72,000 km; 45,000 mi)0.192.6–5.830.1 ? data  · 2019 SU2
2019-09-212019-09-202019 SD10.00187 AU (280,000 km; 174,000 mi)0.735.5–1228.4 ? data  · 2019 SD1
2019-09-212019-09-222019 SS20.00077 AU (115,000 km; 72,000 mi)0.302.0–4.430.7 ? data  · 2019 SS2
2019-09-222019-09-252019 SS30.00188 AU (281,000 km; 175,000 mi)0.7315–3426.2 ? data  · 2019 SS3
2019-09-282019-09-302019 SX80.00255 AU (381,000 km; 237,000 mi)0.994.3–9.728.9 ? data  · 2019 SX8
2019-09-282019-10-012019 TE0.00238 AU (356,000 km; 221,000 mi)0.936.8–1528 ? data  · 2019 TE
2019-09-292019-10-012019 TD0.00087 AU (130,000 km; 81,000 mi)0.343.9–8.729.2 ? data  · 2019 TD
2019-10-012019-09-302019 SM80.00106 AU (159,000 km; 99,000 mi)0.413.8–8.629.2 ? data  · 2019 SM8
2019-10-032019-09-222019 SP30.00249 AU (372,000 km; 231,000 mi)0.9714–3126.4 ? data  · 2019 SP3
2019-10-052019-10-062019 TN50.00083 AU (124,000 km; 77,000 mi)0.325.5–1228.4 ? data  · 2019 TN5
2019-10-182019-10-192019 UU10.00151 AU (226,000 km; 140,000 mi)0.592.2–5.030.4 ? data  · 2019 UU1
2019-10-182019-10-192019 UG0.00215 AU (322,000 km; 200,000 mi)0.846.3–1428.1 ? data  · 2019 UG
2019-10-192019-10-222019 UL30.00199 AU (298,000 km; 185,000 mi)0.775.9–1328.3 ? data  · 2019 UL3
2019-10-232019-10-252019 UN80.00240 AU (359,000 km; 223,000 mi)0.933.1–6.929.7 ? data  · 2019 UN8
2019-10-252019-10-262019 UO80.00105 AU (157,000 km; 98,000 mi)0.413.7–8.329.3 ? data  · 2019 UO8
2019-10-262019-10-292019 UX120.00255 AU (381,000 km; 237,000 mi)0.994.8–1128.7 ? data  · 2019 UX12
2019-10-272019-10-282019 UD100.00112 AU (168,000 km; 104,000 mi)0.446.3–1428.1 ? data  · 2019 UD10
2019-10-292019-10-262019 UB8
(AKA 2019 US8)		0.00127 AU (190,000 km; 118,000 mi)0.504.3–9.728.9 ? data  · 2019 UB8
2019-10-312019-10-31 2019 UN13 0.0000843 AU (12,610 km; 7,840 mi)0.031.0–2.232.1 ? data  · 2019 UN13
2019-11-012019-10-292019 UG110.00140 AU (209,000 km; 130,000 mi)0.5512–2826.7 ? data  · 2019 UG11
2019-11-022019-11-012019 VA0.00071 AU (106,000 km; 66,000 mi)0.285.8–1328.3 ? data  · 2019 VA
2019-11-042019-11-012019 VD0.00117 AU (175,000 km; 109,000 mi)0.458.7–2027.4 ? data  · 2019 VD
2019-11-042019-11-032019 VR0.00091 AU (136,000 km; 85,000 mi)0.356.4–1428.1 ? data  · 2019 VR
2019-11-062019-11-062019 VS40.00093 AU (139,000 km; 86,000 mi)0.369.2–2127.3 ? data  · 2019 VS4
2019-11-092019-11-082019 VB50.00097 AU (145,000 km; 90,000 mi)0.381.2–2.731.7 ? data  · 2019 VB5
2019-11-092019-11-052019 VF50.00127 AU (190,000 km; 118,000 mi)0.498.1–1827.6 ? data  · 2019 VF5
2019-11-192019-11-182019 WH0.00057 AU (85,000 km; 53,000 mi)0.2215–3526.2 ? data  · 2019 WH
2019-11-192019-11-242019 WV10.00185 AU (277,000 km; 172,000 mi)0.726.2–1428.2 ? data  · 2019 WV1
2019-11-232019-11-242019 WG20.00121 AU (181,000 km; 112,000 mi)0.4727–6025 ? data  · 2019 WG2
2019-11-302019-11-292019 WJ40.00219 AU (328,000 km; 204,000 mi)0.855.5–1228.4 ? data  · 2019 WJ4
2019-12-182019-12-172019 YB0.00113 AU (169,000 km; 105,000 mi)0.443.1–7.029.7 ? data  · 2019 YB
2019-12-182019-12-192019 YS0.00044 AU (66,000 km; 41,000 mi)0.171.3–3.031.5 ? data  · 2019 YS
2019-12-232019-12-242019 YU20.00066 AU (99,000 km; 61,000 mi)0.268.9–2027.4 ? data  · 2019 YU2
2019-12-252019-12-302019 YV40.00251 AU (375,000 km; 233,000 mi)0.989.3–2127.3 ? data  · 2019 YV4

Warning Times by Size

This sub-section visualises the warning times of the close approaches listed in the above table, depending on the size of the asteroid. The sizes of the charts show the relative sizes of the asteroids to scale. For comparison, the approximate size of a person is also shown. This is based the absolute magnitude of each asteroid, an approximate measure of size based on brightness.

Abs Magnitude 30 and greater

Silhouette of man standing and facing forward Silhouette of man standing and facing forward.svg
Silhouette of man standing and facing forward

(size of a person for comparison)

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 8 (61.5%)< 24 hours before: 3 (23.1%)up to 7 days before: 2 (15.4%)> one week before: 0 (0.0%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Abs Magnitude 29-30

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 8 (61.5%)< 24 hours before: 3 (23.1%)up to 7 days before: 2 (15.4%)> one week before: 0 (0.0%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Absolute Magnitude 28-29

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 15 (60.0%)< 24 hours before: 4 (16.0%)up to 7 days before: 6 (24.0%)> one week before: 0 (0.0%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Absolute Magnitude 27-28

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 11 (73.3%)< 24 hours before: 0 (0.0%)up to 7 days before: 4 (26.7%)> one week before: 0 (0.0%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Absolute Magnitude 26-27

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 3 (27.3%)< 24 hours before: 2 (18.2%)up to 7 days before: 3 (27.3%)> one week before: 3 (27.3%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Absolute Magnitude 25-26

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 2 (66.7%)< 24 hours before: 0 (0.0%)up to 7 days before: 0 (0.0%)> one week before: 1 (33.3%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Absolute Magnitude less than 25 (largest)

Circle frame.svgAfter closest approach: 0 (0.0%)< 24 hours before: 0 (0.0%)up to 7 days before: 3 (100.0%)> one week before: 0 (0.0%)> 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)> one year before: 0 (0.0%)
  •   After closest approach: 0 (0.0%)
  •   < 24 hours before: 0 (0.0%)
  •   up to 7 days before: 3 (100.0%)
  •   > one week before: 0 (0.0%)
  •   > 7 weeks before: 0 (0.0%)
  •   > one year before: 0 (0.0%)

Notes

  1. ↑ For a list of current Earth close approaches see NEO Earth Close Approaches
  2. ↑ 2019 FC1 passed Earth with a velocity with respect to Earth of 25.9 km/s and was moving away from the Sun at 37.1 km/s.
  3. ↑ Distance from the center of Earth to the center of the object. See the NASA/JPL Solar System Dynamics Glossary: Geocentric. Earth has a radius of approximately 6,400 km.
  4. ↑ Distance error: 0.0012 AU, approach range: 0.40 to 1.36 LD. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  5. ↑ Distance error: 0.000420 AU, approach range: 0.016 to 0.25 LD. There was a roughly 2% chance of impact. The asteroid is most likely between 1 and 14 meters across, so would probably be detectable. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  6. ↑ distance error: 0.0008 AU, approach range: 0.27 to 0.90 LD. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  7. ↑ distance error: 0.0010 AU, approach range: 0.30 to 1.07 LD. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  8. ↑ the asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  9. ↑ distance error: 0.0004 AU, approach range: 0.39 to 0.70 LD. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  10. ↑ distance error: 0.00013 AU. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation. The asteroid may have impacted Earth.
  11. ↑ distance error: 0.00020 AU. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  12. ↑ distance error: 0.00000085 AU. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  13. ↑ distance error: 0.00032 AU. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  14. ↑ 2019-07-04 is the official first observation date for this asteroid, credited to the SONEAR Observatory, Oliveira by the Minor Planet Center. However the object had been observed several times by other telescopes in the run up, but had not been recognised as an asteroid by their automated systems. See 2019 OK for more details

Timeline of close approaches less than one lunar distance from the Moon

The number of asteroids listed here are significantly less than those of asteroids that approach Earth for several reasons. Asteroids that approach Earth not only move faster, but are brighter and are easier to detect with modern surveys because:

These factors severely limit the amount of Moon-approaching asteroids, to a level many times lower than the asteroids detected passing as close to Earth.

Date of
closest
approach		Object Nominal lunocentric
distance (AU) [note2 1] 		Nominal lunocentric
distance (LD)		Size (m)
(approximate)		(H)
approach
distance
to Earth
(LD)		Refs
2019-01-042019 AB0.00246 AU (368,000 km; 229,000 mi)0.9610–4326.31.43 data  · 2019 AB
2019-01-07 2019 AS5 0.00107 AU (160,000 km; 99,000 mi)0.410.7–2.532.20.039 data  · 2019 AS5
2019-01-15 2019 BO 0.00221 AU (331,000 km; 205,000 mi)0.865–1828.00.18 data  · 2019 BO
2019-01-252019 BV10.00134 AU (200,000 km; 125,000 mi)0.523–1428.70.35 data  · 2019 BV1
2019-01-27 2019 BZ3 0.00234 AU (350,000 km; 218,000 mi)0.914–1228.70.13 data  · 2019 BZ3
2019-02-10C03CZA10.00239 AU (358,000 km; 222,000 mi)0.93 [note2 2] 9–3026.90.68 Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-02-112019 CN50.00181 AU (271,000 km; 168,000 mi)0.706–1927.80.31 data  · 2019 CN5
2019-02-112019 CY50.00252 AU (377,000 km; 234,000 mi)0.9812–4526.11.42 data  · 2019 CY5
2019-02-262019 DS10.00242 AU (362,000 km; 225,000 mi)0.9415–5125.61.89 data  · 2019 DS1
2019-02-262019 DM10.00223 AU (334,000 km; 207,000 mi)0.875–1828.01.32 data  · 2019 DM1
2019-02-272019 DF0.00170 AU (254,000 km; 158,000 mi)0.662–829.70.47 data  · 2019 DF
2019-03-012019 EH10.00184 AU (275,000 km; 171,000 mi)0.722–630.10.061 data  · 2019 EH1
2019-03-04C09Q4H20.00256 AU (383,000 km; 238,000 mi)0.998 [note2 3] 1–331.90.069 Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (T)

Notes

  1. ↑ Distance from the center of the Moon to the center of the object. The Moon has a radius of approximately 1,740 km.
  2. ↑ Distance error: 0.0010 AU, approach range: 0.54 to 1.32 LD. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  3. ↑ the asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.

Additional examples

Radar image of 2016 AZ8 and its satellite during close approach in January 2019 2016AZ8 Radar.gif
Radar image of 2016 AZ8 and its satellite during close approach in January 2019
Moshup and its satellite Squannit imaged by the VLT during closest approach in May 2019 1999kw4 vlt-eso1910.jpg
Moshup and its satellite Squannit imaged by the VLT during closest approach in May 2019

An example list of near-Earth asteroids that passed more than 1 lunar distance (384,400 km or 0.00256 AU) from Earth in 2019.

ObjectSize
meters		 lunar
distances 		DateRef
2016 AZ8 21511.592019-01-07 JPL  · CAD
2019 BE5 403.052019-01-30 JPL  · CAD
2015 EG251.16+1.16
−0.02		2019-03-04 JPL  · CAD
2016 GE1163.88+9.96
−2.77		2019-04-04 ± 5 JPL  · CAD
2018 VX81116.15±0.092019-05-12 JPL  · CAD
(12538) 1998 OH 166372.712019-05-16 JPL  · CAD
2012 KT12196.4 [note2.5 1] 2019-05-17 JPL  · CAD
66391 Moshup 131713.482019-05-25 JPL  · CAD
(441987) 2010 NY652287.272019-06-24 JPL  · CAD
2016 NO56253.41+36.86
−2.41 [note2.5 1] 		2019-07-07 ± 6 JPL  · CAD
2019 PG1 27061.532019-07-24 JPL  · CAD
2010 PK91388.202019-07-26 JPL  · CAD
2011 PN11161.97+90.70
−61.00 [note2.5 1] 		2019-08-07 ± 5 JPL  · CAD
(66146) 1998 TU3286428.892019-08-25 JPL  · CAD
2019 OU1 1152.672019-08-28 JPL  · CAD
1620 Geographos 256053.422019-08-31 JPL  · CAD
2009 EH1958.91+76.41
−58.43 [note2.5 1] 		2019-09-09 ± 9 JPL  · CAD
2100 Ra-Shalom 230069.942019-09-21 JPL  · CAD
2016 XA216466.91+66.18
−65.98 [note2.5 1] 		2019-12-06 ± 7 JPL  · CAD

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 2012 KT12 could have potentially passed less than 1 lunar distance to Earth, but the chances were fairly low and as such it was not listed in the main table unless followup observations confirmed that it would pass less than 1 LD from Earth. It was recovered on 2 May 2019.

Virtual impactors

Listed are asteroids that are included on the Sentry Risk Table because they have short observation arcs with poorly constrained orbits and have a chance of striking Earth in 2019. Given a short observation arc, many different orbits fit the observed data. These objects could be millions if not billions of kilometers from Earth on the date of a low probability virtual impactor. For example, 2008 SH148 is expected to be 5.3  AU (800 million  km ) from Earth in October 2019 around the time of the virtual impact.

Cumulatively among the asteroids listed below, there is a roughly 1 in 16,500 chance that any of the asteroids will impact Earth in 2019. Most of this comes from asteroid 2006 QV89 which formerly had a 1 in 20,000 chance of impact on 9 September 2019, but the impact was ruled out in August.

Also included are asteroids discovered before impact and exceptionally massive fireballs with either an equivalent yield of more than 1 kiloton of TNT or an estimated size of more than 3 meters.

DateObjectEstimated
diameter
(meters)		 Obs
arc
(days)		Impact
probability
(1 in)		Sigma from
best-fit orbit
[note3 1] 		Palermo
scale 		JPL Horizons
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)		 NEODyS
nominal geocentric
distance (AU)
2019-01-06 [6] 2005 NX5580–2601.1710,000,000-2.461-5.512.8 AU (420,000,000 km; 260,000,000 mi)3.0 AU (450,000,000 km; 280,000,000 mi)
2019-01-06 [7] 2010 JA43459–4972.7210,000,000-2.004-4.322.4 AU (360,000,000 km; 220,000,000 mi)2.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)
2019-01-07 [8] 2014 HN198 [note3 2] 15–475.9 (0.99)N/A (1,400,000,000)N/A (-0.160)N/A (-8.09)1.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)
2019-01-08 [9] 2010 DG77 [note3 3] [note3 4] 309–3210.60220,000,000-4.057-6.943.0 AU (450,000,000 km; 280,000,000 mi)0.52 AU (78,000,000 km; 48,000,000 mi)
2019-01-10 [10] 2008 EL68 [note3 5] 6–200.07136,000,000-1.475-7.801.4 AU (210,000,000 km; 130,000,000 mi)1.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)
2019-01-10 [11] 2016 AZ193 [note3 6] 10–350.164,200,000,000-3.197-8.221.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-01-11 [9] 2010 DG77309–3210.604,200,000,000-2.874-6.913.0 AU (450,000,000 km; 280,000,000 mi)0.51 AU (76,000,000 km; 47,000,000 mi)
2019-01-11 [9] 2010 DG77309–3210.602,900,000,000-2.297-6.523.0 AU (450,000,000 km; 280,000,000 mi)0.51 AU (76,000,000 km; 47,000,000 mi)
2019-01-11 [12] 2010 XC [note3 7] 3–120.05817,000,000-1.593-7.912.4 AU (360,000,000 km; 220,000,000 mi)2.4 AU (360,000,000 km; 220,000,000 mi)
2019-01-20 [11] 2016 AZ19310–350.161,400,000,000-3.137-9.151.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-02-01 [13] N/A (not discovered
before impact)		4N/A10.0000N/A
(impact)		N/A
(impact)
2019-02-07 [14] 2015 HV182 [note3 8] 92–3001.01,100,000,000-0.900-5.812.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-02-15 [15] 2009 VZ39 [note3 9] 5–160.043290,000,0000.751-8.300.082 AU (12,300,000 km; 7,600,000 mi)2.3 AU (340,000,000 km; 210,000,000 mi)
2019-02-15 [16] 2011 CF66 [note3 10] 7–230.1862,000,000-2.603-7.841.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)0.29 AU (43,000,000 km; 27,000,000 mi)
2019-02-18 [16] 2011 CF667–230.18280,000,000-2.921-8.341.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)0.30 AU (45,000,000 km; 28,000,000 mi)
2019-02-18 [13] N/A (not discovered
before impact		5N/A10.0000N/A
(impact)		N/A
(impact)
2019-02-20 [17] 2008 JD3314–590.12260,000,000-2.901-8.734.4 AU (660,000,000 km; 410,000,000 mi)4.1 AU (610,000,000 km; 380,000,000 mi)
2019-02-22 [10] 2008 EL686–200.0711,500,000-0.914-6.471.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-02-28 [10] 2008 EL686–200.0714,300,000-1.271-6.901.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-01 [18] 2008 EK68 [note3 11] 3–80.0401,400,000,0001.826-9.381.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-02 [10] 2008 EL686–200.0718,300,000-1.469-7.141.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-02 [18] 2008 EK683–80.040830,000,0002.221-9.341.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-03 [10] 2008 EL686–200.07145,000,000-2.055-7.801.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-03 [10] 2008 EL686–200.07116,000,000-1.712-7.411.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-03 [18] 2008 EK683–80.040200,000,0001.940-8.931.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-03 [18] 2008 EK683–80.04071,000,0001.771-8.701.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-04 [15] 2009 VZ395–160.043130,000,0001.257-7.960.15 AU (22,000,000 km; 14,000,000 mi)2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-03-09 [10] 2008 EL686–200.0715,000,000,0003.289-8.751.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-10 [10] 2008 EL686–200.071830,000,0002.871-8.091.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-10 [10] 2008 EL686–200.07191,000,0002.767-7.531.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-11 [19] 2008 EM68 [note3 12] 7–220.116,700,0001.207-6.510.37 AU (55,000,000 km; 34,000,000 mi)2.3 AU (340,000,000 km; 210,000,000 mi)
2019-03-11 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11480,0000.652-5.470.37 AU (55,000,000 km; 34,000,000 mi)2.3 AU (340,000,000 km; 210,000,000 mi)
2019-03-12 [10] 2008 EL686–200.0713,600,0001.085-6.471.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-03-12 [19] 2008 EM687–220.1111,000,0001.823-6.940.37 AU (55,000,000 km; 34,000,000 mi)2.3 AU (340,000,000 km; 210,000,000 mi)
2019-03-14 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11830,000,0002.905-8.910.37 AU (55,000,000 km; 34,000,000 mi)2.4 AU (360,000,000 km; 220,000,000 mi)
2019-04-03 [20] 2014 HG196 [note3 13] 10–331.0590,000,0002.345-8.132.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)2.7 AU (400,000,000 km; 250,000,000 mi)
2019-04-03 [21] 2014 MV67 220–7100.942,100,000,0000.441-4.953.5 AU (520,000,000 km; 330,000,000 mi)1.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)
2019-04-09 [20] 2014 HG19610–331.06,200,000,0003.011-8.982.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)2.8 AU (420,000,000 km; 260,000,000 mi)
2019-04-18 [22] 2008 US [note3 14] 1–40.08143,000,000-1.780-9.202.6 AU (390,000,000 km; 240,000,000 mi)2.7 AU (400,000,000 km; 250,000,000 mi)
2019-04-18 [22] 2008 US1–40.081710,000-1.526-7.392.6 AU (390,000,000 km; 240,000,000 mi)2.7 AU (400,000,000 km; 250,000,000 mi)
2019-04-29 [23] 2017 UK527–280.1891,000,0001.988-6.922.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-05-01 [11] 2016 AZ19310–350.16310,000,000-2.900-8.791.4 AU (210,000,000 km; 130,000,000 mi)1.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)
2019-05-04 [24] 2014 MA6816–400.9591,000,000-3.804-7.232.8 AU (420,000,000 km; 260,000,000 mi)2.8 AU (420,000,000 km; 260,000,000 mi)
2019-05-07 [15] 2009 VZ395–160.043260,000,0001.252-7.820.67 AU (100,000,000 km; 62,000,000 mi)1.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)
2019-05-21 [13] N/A (not discovered
before impact		5N/A10.0000N/A
(impact)		N/A
(impact)
2019-06-03 [25] 2014 LY21 [note3 15] 3–100.045400,000-0.302-5.660.45 AU (67,000,000 km; 42,000,000 mi)0.72 AU (108,000,000 km; 67,000,000 mi)
2019-06-03 [25] 2014 LY21 3–100.04525,000,0002.025-7.890.45 AU (67,000,000 km; 42,000,000 mi)0.72 AU (108,000,000 km; 67,000,000 mi)
2019-06-04 [25] 2014 LY21 3–100.045480,000,0003.015-9.330.46 AU (69,000,000 km; 43,000,000 mi)0.72 AU (108,000,000 km; 67,000,000 mi)
2019-06-04 [25] 2014 LY21 3–100.045670,0000.351-6.630.46 AU (69,000,000 km; 43,000,000 mi)0.72 AU (108,000,000 km; 67,000,000 mi)
2019-06-04 [25] 2014 LY21 3–100.0451,500,0000.855-7.120.46 AU (69,000,000 km; 43,000,000 mi)0.73 AU (109,000,000 km; 68,000,000 mi)
2019-06-12 [14] 2015 HV18292–3001.01,200,000,0000.518-6.131.1 AU (160,000,000 km; 100,000,000 mi)1.1 AU (160,000,000 km; 100,000,000 mi)
2019-06-22 2019 MO 60.09510.000>00.00004 AU (6,000 km; 3,700 mi)
(impact)		0.00004 AU (6,000 km; 3,700 mi)
(impact)
2019-07-07 [26] 2014 CH1328–900.9659,000,000-3.714-6.250.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)0.82 AU (123,000,000 km; 76,000,000 mi)
2019-07-07 [27] 2011 AE35–170.043590,000,0000.765-7.850.72 AU (108,000,000 km; 67,000,000 mi)0.75 AU (112,000,000 km; 70,000,000 mi)
2019-07-13 [28] 2004 ME653–2500.871,700,000,000-2.219-6.561.1 AU (160,000,000 km; 100,000,000 mi)0.15 AU (22,000,000 km; 14,000,000 mi)
2019-07-21 [29] 2012 BL145–160.12260,000,0003.036-8.263.1 AU (460,000,000 km; 290,000,000 mi)3.1 AU (460,000,000 km; 290,000,000 mi)
2019-08-19 [30] 2015 ME131 270–8601.8710,000,0000.809-4.471.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)1.3 AU (190,000,000 km; 120,000,000 mi)
2019-08-30 [31] 2015 HW18218–571.0450,000,000-1.745-7.542.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-07 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11220,000,0002.279-8.320.99 AU (148,000,000 km; 92,000,000 mi)2.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-09 [32] 2006 QV89 18–599.920,0002.894-3.320.061 AU (9,100,000 km; 5,700,000 mi)0.054 AU (8,100,000 km; 5,000,000 mi)
2019-09-11 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11830,000,000-1.445-8.400.97 AU (145,000,000 km; 90,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-12 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11710,000,000-0.811-8.510.97 AU (145,000,000 km; 90,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-12 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11110,000,000-0.815-7.720.97 AU (145,000,000 km; 90,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-13 [19] 2008 EM687–220.11310,000,000-1.036-8.060.97 AU (145,000,000 km; 90,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-13 [19] 2008 EM687–220.112,400,000,000-1.783-8.730.97 AU (145,000,000 km; 90,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-09-20 [14] 2015 HV18292–3001.07,700,000,0000.093-6.632.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)2.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)
2019-09-22 [33] 2009 FZ418–570.6030,000,0001.308-6.311.5 AU (220,000,000 km; 140,000,000 mi)1.4 AU (210,000,000 km; 130,000,000 mi)
2019-09-23 [14] 2015 HV18292–3001.07,700,000,000-2.410-6.992.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)2.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)
2019-10-03 [34] 2007 FT3 210–6801.211,000,000-1.652-3.170.93 AU (139,000,000 km; 86,000,000 mi)1.1 AU (160,000,000 km; 100,000,000 mi)
2019-10-07 [35] 2008 SH14813–410.101,600,000,0003.550-8.395.3 AU (790,000,000 km; 490,000,000 mi)5.4 AU (810,000,000 km; 500,000,000 mi)
2019-10-09 [14] 2015 HV18292–3001.0340,000,000-0.355-5.782.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-10-11 [36] 2006 SF281 [note3 16] 8–260.02742,000,0002.475-7.082.6 AU (390,000,000 km; 240,000,000 mi)1.4 AU (210,000,000 km; 130,000,000 mi)
2019-10-27 [37] 2014 HR197 [note3 17] 8–260.969,100,000,000-3.524-9.072.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)2.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)
2019-10-28 [37] 2014 HR1978–260.96910,000,000-3.002-8.302.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)2.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)
2019-10-28 [38] 2008 VL6–220.121,500,000,000-3.610-9.352.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)2.0 AU (300,000,000 km; 190,000,000 mi)
2019-10-29 [37] 2014 HR1978–260.96770,000,000-3.196-8.452.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)2.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)
2019-11-01 [39] 2010 VR13911–310.06438,000,000-0.745-7.292.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)2.1 AU (310,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)
2019-11-10 [40] 2010 VP139 [note3 18] 13–410.04612,000,000-2.326-7.861.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)
2019-11-12 [40] 2010 VP13913–410.04615,000,000-2.088-8.001.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)
2019-11-12 [15] 2009 VZ395–160.043430,000,000-1.453-8.422.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)1.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)
2019-11-13 [40] 2010 VP13913–410.04656,000,000-2.556-8.411.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)
2019-11-13 [40] 2010 VP13913–410.0464,000,000,0003.632-10.11.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)
2019-11-14 [15] 2009 VZ395–160.04329,000,0000.995-7.782.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)1.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)
2019-11-16 [41] 2008 VS4 [note3 19] 29–870.0835,600,000,0003.255-7.621.8 AU (270,000,000 km; 170,000,000 mi)4.2 AU (630,000,000 km; 390,000,000 mi)
2019-11-16 [15] 2009 VZ395–160.043100,000,0001.284-7.902.9 AU (430,000,000 km; 270,000,000 mi)1.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)
2019-11-17 [41] 2008 VS429–870.0831,100,000,0002.834-7.021.8 AU (270,000,000 km; 170,000,000 mi)4.2 AU (630,000,000 km; 390,000,000 mi)
2019-11-19 [42] 2008 XK [note3 20] 8–250.087910,000,0004.019-8.843.4 AU (510,000,000 km; 320,000,000 mi)2.4 AU (360,000,000 km; 220,000,000 mi)
2019-11-21 [43] 2017 WF30 [note3 21] 10–310.171,800,000,000-2.868-8.060.33 AU (49,000,000 km; 31,000,000 mi)0.26 AU (39,000,000 km; 24,000,000 mi)
2019-11-23 [44] 2017 RZ17180–5900.96290,000,0001.115-4.273.4 AU (510,000,000 km; 320,000,000 mi)3.3 AU (490,000,000 km; 310,000,000 mi)
2019-11-23 [45] 2007 YM12–390.13280,000,000-0.878-7.812.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)2.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)
2019-12-06 [42] 2008 XK8–250.087200,000,000-2.287-7.983.6 AU (540,000,000 km; 330,000,000 mi)2.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)
2019-12-06 [43] 2017 WF3010–310.17220,000,0002.469-7.720.39 AU (58,000,000 km; 36,000,000 mi)0.32 AU (48,000,000 km; 30,000,000 mi)
2019-12-08 [12] 2010 XC3–120.0585,900,000,0003.630-10.22.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)2.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)
2019-12-09 [12] 2010 XC3–120.058710,000,0003.253-9.512.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)2.5 AU (370,000,000 km; 230,000,000 mi)
2019-12-14 [41] 2008 VS429–870.08353,000,0001.138-6.321.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)4.1 AU (610,000,000 km; 380,000,000 mi)
2019-12-15 [46] 2014 JT79 [note3 22] 11–346.8 (2.8)0 (1,300,000,000)N/A (0.741)N/A (-8.10)0.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)0.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)
2019-12-15 [46] 2014 JT7911–346.8 (2.8)0 (400,000,000)N/A (0.733)N/A (-7.86)0.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)0.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)
2019-12-16 [47] 2010 WW89–300.066120,000,0001.760-7.510.46 AU (69,000,000 km; 43,000,000 mi)0.97 AU (145,000,000 km; 90,000,000 mi)
2019-12-17 [46] 2014 JT7911–346.8 (2.8)0 (150,000,000)N/A (-0.905)N/A (-7.75)0.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)0.94 AU (141,000,000 km; 87,000,000 mi)
2019-12-18 [48] 2005 TM173 [note3 23] 28–1301.95,300,000,0003.220-8.033.4 AU (510,000,000 km; 320,000,000 mi)5.4 AU (810,000,000 km; 500,000,000 mi)
2019-12-18 [48] 2005 TM17328–1301.9500,000,000-2.460-6.843.4 AU (510,000,000 km; 320,000,000 mi)5.4 AU (810,000,000 km; 500,000,000 mi)
2019-12-18 [48] 2005 TM17328–1301.91,300,000,000-2.461-7.253.4 AU (510,000,000 km; 320,000,000 mi)5.4 AU (810,000,000 km; 500,000,000 mi)
2019-12-19 [46] 2014 JT7911–346.8 (2.8)0 (91,000,000)N/A (-1.732)N/A (-7.87)0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi)0.95 AU (142,000,000 km; 88,000,000 mi)
2019-12-24 [46] 2014 JT7911–346.8 (2.8)0 (710,000,000)N/A (-3.598)N/A (-9.23)0.96 AU (144,000,000 km; 89,000,000 mi)0.96 AU (144,000,000 km; 89,000,000 mi)
2019-12-25 [42] 2008 XK8–250.087260,000,0003.252-8.393.7 AU (550,000,000 km; 340,000,000 mi)2.6 AU (390,000,000 km; 240,000,000 mi)
2019-12-26 [49] 2016 RP4168–2100.76590,000,0002.440-6.391.2 AU (180,000,000 km; 110,000,000 mi)1.1 AU (160,000,000 km; 100,000,000 mi)
2019-12-28 [50] 2010 GD371000–31003.31,400,000,000-0.862-3.382.2 AU (330,000,000 km; 200,000,000 mi)Not listed
2019-12-28 [14] 2015 HV18292–3001.0450,000,000-0.451-5.912.3 AU (340,000,000 km; 210,000,000 mi)2.3 AU (340,000,000 km; 210,000,000 mi)
2019-12-29 [11] 2016 AZ19310–350.163,300,000,0002.902-8.391.6 AU (240,000,000 km; 150,000,000 mi)1.7 AU (250,000,000 km; 160,000,000 mi)

Notes

  1. ↑ This is a measurement of how far off of the "best fit" orbit the asteroid would have to have for it to hit at this time. Further values from 0 mean that the measured positions of the asteroid used to calculate its orbit would need to be highly inaccurate for it to hit Earth. For reference, 1.0/-1.0=31.7% odds the observations would be this inaccurate, 2.0/-2.0=4.6% odds, 3.0/-3.0=0.27% odds.
  2. ↑ 2014 HN198 was ruled out as a potential impactor after further observations from Cerro Tololo, improving the orbit enough to determine that it won't hit Earth.
  3. ↑ 2010 DG77 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 195,000,000 (Palermo scale -6.89) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  4. ↑ This listing is compiled from 3 separate virtual impacts at the exact same time, and simply spread out by several sigma. The probabilities are updated to reflect the duplicated listings.
  5. ↑ 2008 EL68 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 703,000 (Palermo scale -6.14) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  6. ↑ 2016 AZ193 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 223,000,000 (Palermo scale -8.00) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  7. ↑ 2010 XC has a cumulative probability of 1 in 16,600,000 (Palermo scale -7.90) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  8. ↑ 2015 HV182 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 140,000,000 (Palermo scale -5.39) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  9. ↑ 2009 VZ39 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 16,200,000 (Palermo scale -7.53) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  10. ↑ 2011 CF66 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 50,800,000 (Palermo scale -7.75) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  11. ↑ 2008 EK68 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 47,600,000 (Palermo scale -8.08) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  12. ↑ 2008 EM68 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 427,000 (Palermo scale -5.42) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  13. ↑ 2014 HG196 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 539,000,000 (Palermo scale -8.09) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  14. ↑ 2008 US has a cumulative probability of 1 in 698,000 (Palermo scale -7.38) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  15. ↑ 2014 LY21 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 213,000 (Palermo scale -5.39) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  16. ↑ This listing is compiled from 16 separate virtual impacts at the exact same time, and simply spread out by several sigma. The probabilities are updated to reflect the duplicated listings.
  17. ↑ 2014 HR197 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 399,000,000 (Palermo scale -8.16) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  18. ↑ 2010 VP139 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 5,950,000 (Palermo scale -7.56) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  19. ↑ 2008 VS4 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 50,100,000 (Palermo scale -6.30) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  20. ↑ 2008 XK has a cumulative probability of 1 in 101,000,000 (Palermo scale -7.68) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  21. ↑ 2017 WF30 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 196,000,000 (Palermo scale -7.67) of impacting Earth in 2019.
  22. ↑ 2014 JT79 had a cumulative probability of 1 in 44,800,000 (Palermo scale -7.56) of impacting Earth in 2019. It was ruled out as a potential impactor after further observations from Cerro Tololo, improving the orbit enough to determine that it won't hit Earth.
  23. ↑ 2005 TM173 has a cumulative probability of 1 in 338,000,000 (Palermo scale -6.67) of impacting Earth in 2019.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Near-Earth object</span> Small Solar System body whose orbit brings it close to the Earth

A near-Earth object (NEO) is any small Solar System body whose orbit brings it into proximity with Earth. By convention, a Solar System body is a NEO if its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) is less than 1.3 astronomical units (AU). If a NEO's orbit crosses the Earth's orbit, and the object is larger than 140 meters (460 ft) across, it is considered a potentially hazardous object (PHO). Most known PHOs and NEOs are asteroids, but a small fraction are comets.

The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value. The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale is a similar, but more complex scale. Near-Earth objects with a Torino scale of 1 pop up every couple of months or so and may last a few weeks until they have a longer observation arc.

The Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale is a logarithmic scale used by astronomers to rate the potential hazard of impact of a near-Earth object (NEO). It combines two types of data—probability of impact and estimated kinetic yield—into a single "hazard" value. A rating of 0 means the hazard is equivalent to the background hazard. A rating of +2 would indicate the hazard is 100 times as great as a random background event. Scale values less than −2 reflect events for which there are no likely consequences, while Palermo Scale values between −2 and 0 indicate situations that merit careful monitoring. A similar but less complex scale is the Torino Scale, which is used for simpler descriptions in the non-scientific media.

(89959) 2002 NT7 (prov. designation:2002 NT7) is a near-Earth object with a diameter of 1.4 kilometers and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. It has a well determined orbit with an observation arc of 64 years including precovery images by Palomar Observatory dating back to 1954.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">(29075) 1950 DA</span> Most hazardous risk–listed near-Earth asteroid

(29075) 1950 DA, provisional designation 1950 DA, is a risk–listed asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 1.1 kilometers in diameter. It once had the highest known probability of impacting Earth. In 2002, it had the highest Palermo rating with a value of 0.17 for a possible collision in 2880. Since that time, the estimated risk has been updated several times. In December 2015, the odds of an Earth impact were revised to 1 in 8,300 (0.012%) with a Palermo rating of −1.42. As of 2022, It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with the second highest cumulative Palermo rating of −2.05. 1950 DA is not assigned a Torino scale rating, because the 2880 date is over 100 years in the future.

99942 Apophis is a near-Earth asteroid and potentially hazardous asteroid with a diameter of 370 metres that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability up to 2.7% that it would hit Earth on April 13, 2029. Additional observations provided improved predictions that eliminated the possibility of an impact on Earth in 2029. Until 2006, a small probability nevertheless remained that, during its 2029 close encounter with Earth, Apophis would pass through a gravitational keyhole of no more than about 800 metres in diameter, which would have set up a future impact exactly seven years later on April 13, 2036. This possibility kept it at Level 1 on the Torino impact hazard scale until August 2006, when the probability that Apophis would pass through the keyhole was determined to be very small and Apophis' rating on the Torino scale was lowered to zero. By 2008, the keyhole had been determined to be less than 1 km wide. During the short time when it had been of greatest concern, Apophis set the record for highest rating ever on the Torino scale, reaching level 4 on December 27, 2004.

(144898) 2004 VD17, provisional designation 2004 VD17, is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group once thought to have a low probability of impacting Earth on 4 May 2102. It reached a Torino Scale rating of 2 and a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of -0.25. With an observation arc of 17 years it is known that closest Earth approach will occur two days earlier on 2 May 2102 at a distance of about 5.5 million km.

(529366) 2009 WM1, provisional designation 2009 WM1, is a sub-kilometer asteroid and near-Earth object of the Apollo group, approximately 280 meters (920 feet) in diameter. After its discovery by the Catalina Sky Survey at the Catalina Station in Arizona, United States, this potentially hazardous asteroid was briefly listed at a Torino Scale of 1 and a cumulative Palermo Scale of −0.87. It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 26 June 2013.

<span class="nowrap">(367789) 2011 AG<sub>5</sub></span> Near-Earth asteroid in 2040

(367789) 2011 AG5, provisional designation 2011 AG5, is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. It has a diameter of about 140 meters (460 ft). It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 21 December 2012 and as such it now has a rating of 0 on the Torino Scale. It was recovered in December 2022 extending the observation arc from 4.8 years to 14 years. As of 2023, the distance between the orbits of Earth and 2011 AG5 is 0.0004 AU (60,000 km; 0.16 LD)

<span class="mw-page-title-main">(410777) 2009 FD</span>

(410777) 2009 FD is a carbonaceous sub-kilometer asteroid and binary system, classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, discovered on 24 February 2009 by astronomers of the Spacewatch program at Kitt Peak National Observatory near Tucson, Arizona, in the United States.

2012 KP24 (also written 2012 KP24) is a Chelyabinsk-sized near-Earth asteroid with an observation arc of only 5 days and has a modestly determined orbit for an object of its size. Around 31 May 2023 ±3 days it will pass between 0.19–24 lunar distances (73,000–9,200,000 km) from Earth. Nominally the asteroid is expected to pass 0.026 AU (3,900,000 km; 10 LD) from Earth and brighten to around apparent magnitude 21.6.

2014 XL7 is a near-Earth object and Apollo asteroid, approximately 230 meters (750 feet) in diameter. It was the most dangerous potentially hazardous asteroid on Sentry Risk Table upon its discovery by the Mount Lemmon Survey in December 2014. At the time, the asteroid had a cumulative 1 in 83000 chance of impacting Earth on 4–5 June between the years 2048 and 2084. After the object's observation arc had been extended to 35 days, it was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 15 January 2015. Since then the asteroid's orbit has been secured. Although it has an Earth minimum orbit intersection distance of less than one lunar distance, there are no projected close encounters with Earth in the foreseeable future, with its closest passage to occur in May 2046, still millions of kilometers away.

2016 EU85 is an asteroid, classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 400 meters in diameter. It was first observed on 10 March 2016, by the Pan-STARRS survey at Haleakala Observatory, Hawaii, United States.

2010 GZ60 was originally estimated by JPL to be a near-Earth asteroid approximately 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) in diameter. But is now known to be an asteroid from the inner region of the asteroid belt that does not get closer than 1.5 AU (220 million km) to Earth.

2007 FT3 (also written 2007 FT3) is a lost asteroid with a short observation arc of 1.2 days that can not be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been seen since 2007. It was first observed on 20 March 2007 when the asteroid was estimated to be 0.19 ± 0.01 AU (28.4 ± 1.5 million km) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 107 degrees. 2007 FT3 is the fourth largest asteroid with better than a 1-in-2 million cumulative chance of impacting Earth after (29075) 1950 DA, 1979 XB, and 101955 Bennu. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of -2.93, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 2007 FT3 fifth on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.

1979 XB is a lost asteroid with a short observation arc of 3.9 days that cannot be recovered with targeted observations and awaits serendipitous survey observations. It is classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group and is estimated to be 660 meters in diameter. The unnumbered minor planet has a poorly constrained orbit and has not been observed in 40 years. It has been listed on the Sentry Risk Table since the list started in 2002. With a cumulative Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale of −2.72, the poorly known orbit and assumed size place 1979 XB third on an unconstrained listing of the Sentry Risk Table.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 VV</span> Small risk–listed near-Earth asteroid

2020 VV is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 12 meters in diameter. On 20 November 2020, the asteroid had a 4.4% chance of impacting Earth on 12 October 2033 11:43 UT. As of mid-December 2020, the asteroid has a modest 61 day observation arc. The nominal Earth approach is on 17 October 2033 at a distance of 0.009 AU, but the line of variations (LOV) is only known with an accuracy of ±22 hours. The line of variations allows the asteroid to come as close as 0.006 AU or pass as far away as 0.01 AU. With a diameter range of 10–22 meters the asteroid could be as large as the Chelyabinsk meteor.

References

  1. ↑ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2019 FC1)". Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
  2. ↑ "JPL Small-Body Database Browser". JPL Solar System Dynamics. NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
  3. ↑ "MPC Database". IAU Minor Planet Center. International Astronomical Union. Retrieved 1 January 2021.
  4. ↑ Guido, Ernesto. "Small Asteroid 2019 MO (NEOCP A10eoM1) impacted Earth on June 22". Comets & Asteroids news (remanzacco). Retrieved 28 December 2019.
  5. ↑ Gal, Roy. "Breakthrough: UH team successfully locates incoming asteroid". University of Hawaii. Retrieved 26 June 2019.
  6. ↑ "Sentry: 2005 NX55 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-09). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  7. ↑ "Sentry: 2010 JA43 (archived)" (computed on 2018-10-03). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  8. ↑ "Sentry: 2014 HN198 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  9. 1 2 3 "Sentry: 2010 DG77 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Sentry: 2008 EL68 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-09). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  11. 1 2 3 4 "Sentry: 2016 AZ193 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.
  12. 1 2 3 "Sentry: 2010 XC (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  13. 1 2 3 "CNEOS Fireball and Bolide Data".
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Sentry: 2015 HV182 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2017-04-14.
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Sentry: 2009 VZ39 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  16. 1 2 "Sentry: 2011 CF66 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.
  17. ↑ "Sentry: 2008 JD33 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  18. 1 2 3 4 "Sentry: 2008 EK68 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  19. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Sentry: 2008 EM68" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.
  20. 1 2 "Sentry: 2014 HG196 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.
  21. ↑ "Sentry: 2014 MV67 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.
  22. 1 2 "Sentry: 2008 US (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07).{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)[ dead link ]
  23. ↑ "Sentry: 2017 UK52 (archived)" (computed on 2017-12-15). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  24. ↑ "Sentry: 2014 MA68 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 "Sentry: 2014 LY21 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  26. ↑ "Sentry: 2014 CH13 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-20). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  27. ↑ "Sentry: 2011 AE3 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-09). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  28. ↑ "Sentry: 2004 ME6 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-12). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  29. ↑ "Sentry: 2012 BL14 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-70). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  30. ↑ "Sentry: 2015 ME131 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2017-07-31.
  31. ↑ "Sentry: 2015 HW182 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-14). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  32. ↑ "Sentry: 2006 QV89 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-29.
  33. ↑ "Sentry: 2009 FZ4 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-11). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.
  34. ↑ "Sentry: 2007 FT3 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-11). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  35. ↑ "Sentry: 2008 SH148 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  36. ↑ "Sentry: 2006 SF281 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  37. 1 2 3 "Sentry: 2014 HR197 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-09). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.
  38. ↑ "Sentry: 2008 VL (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.
  39. ↑ "Sentry: 2010 VR139 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-12-29.
  40. 1 2 3 4 "Sentry: 2010 VP139 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.{{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  41. 1 2 3 "Sentry: 2008 VS4 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2017-10-20.
  42. 1 2 3 "Sentry: 2008 XK (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-07). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  43. 1 2 "Sentry: 2017 WF30 (archived)" (computed on 2018-01-07). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  44. ↑ "Sentry: 2017 RZ17 (archived)" (computed on 2018-02-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  45. ↑ "Sentry: 2007 YM (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2017-10-20.
  46. 1 2 3 4 5 "Sentry: 2014 JT79 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-06). Archived from the original on 2018-01-29.
  47. ↑ "Sentry: 2010 WW8 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-09). Archived from the original on 2018-01-28.
  48. 1 2 3 "Sentry: 2005 TM173 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  49. ↑ "Sentry: 2016 RP41 (archived)" (computed on 2017-04-08). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
  50. ↑ "Sentry: 2010 GD37 (archived)" (computed on 2018-10-03). Archived from the original on 2018-12-30.
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