List of predicted asteroid impacts on Earth

Last updated

This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance, which are cataloged by the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS). [1]

As of December 2024, all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 10 m (33 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors.

Asteroid
designation		Date & time (UTC)
of discovery
Discoverer		Estimated size Abs.
mag. 		Date & time (UTC)
of impact
Warning time		Location of impactAirburst altitude
Energy 		Method of
impact detection		Reference
2008 TC3 2008-10-06 06:39
Mt. Lemmon Survey 		3.8–4.4 m (12–14 ft)30.722008-10-07 02:45
20:05		20.9 N, 31.8 E
Nubian Desert in Sudan 		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
1 kt		visual, weather satellite,
meteorite recovery		 JPL  · MPC  · [2]
2014 AA 2014-01-01 06:18
Mt. Lemmon Survey		2–4 m (6.6–13.1 ft)30.952014-01-02 03:04
20:46		13.1 N, 44.2 W
Central Atlantic Ocean 		40.0 km (24.9 mi)
?		 infrasound JPL  · MPC  · [3]
2018 LA 2018-06-02 08:14
Mt. Lemmon Survey		2–5 m (6.6–16.4 ft)30.552018-06-02 16:44
08:29		21.3 S, 23.3 E
Botswana/South Africa border		27.8 km (17.3 mi)
0.3–0.5 kt		visual, infrasound,
meteorite recovery		 JPL  · MPC  · [4] [5] [6]
2019 MO 2019-06-22 09:49
ATLAS-MLO 		4–9 m (13–30 ft)29.122019-06-22 21:25
11:36		14.9 N, 66.2 W
Caribbean Sea near Puerto Rico 		25.0 km (15.5 mi)
6 kt		visual, infrasound,
weather satellite & radar		 JPL  · MPC  · [7]
2022 EB5 2022-03-11 19:24
GINOP-KHK 		1.4–3.2 m (4.6–10.5 ft)31.332022-03-11 21:22
01:58		70.0 N, 9.1 W
Jan Mayen, northern Atlantic Ocean		33.3 km (20.7 mi)
4 kt		visual, infrasound JPL  · MPC  · [8] [9]
2022 WJ1 2022-11-19 04:53
Mt. Lemmon Survey		0.4–0.6 m (1.3–2.0 ft)33.582022-11-19 08:26
03:33		43.0 N, 81.7 W
Ontario, Canada 		95.5 km (59.3 mi)
?		visual, radar JPL  · MPC  · [10] [11]
2023 CX1 2023-02-12 20:18
GINOP-KHK		0.8–1.7 m (2.6–5.6 ft)32.722023-02-13 02:59
06:41		49.8 N, 0.4 E
Northwestern France 		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		visual, meteorite recovery JPL  · MPC  · [12] [13]
2024 BX1 2024-01-20 21:48
GINOP-KHK		<0.5 m (1.6 ft)32.712024-01-21 00:32
02:44		52.6 N, 12.6 E
Berlin, Germany 		21.3 km (13.2 mi)
?		visual, meteorite recovery JPL  · MPC  · [14] [15]
2024 RW1 2024-09-04 05:43
Mt. Lemmon Survey		1–2.5 m (3.3–8.2 ft)32.202024-09-04 16:39
10:55		18.0 N, 122.9 E
Pacific Ocean near Luzon, Philippines 		25.0 km (15.5 mi)
0.2 kt		visual JPL  · MPC  · [16] [17]
2024 UQ 2024-10-22 09:08
ATLAS-HKO 		0.8–1.6 m (2.6–5.2 ft)32.662024-10-22 10:54
01:46		30.0 N, 136.0 W
Eastern Pacific 		38.2 km (23.7 mi)
0.15 kt		weather satellite JPL  · MPC  · [18] [19]
2024 XA1 2024-12-03 05:55
Kitt Peak-Bok		0.7–1.5 m (2.3–4.9 ft)32.952024-12-03 16:14
10:19		60.9 N, 119.5 E
Eastern Siberia 		50.0 km (31.1 mi)
?		visual JPL  · MPC  · [20] [21]

References

  1. ↑ "Pre-Impact Detections". NASA/JPL CNEOS. Retrieved 2025-03-01.
  2. ↑ Shaddad, Muawia H.; et al. (October 2010). "The recovery of asteroid 2008 TC3" (PDF). Meteoritics & Planetary Science . 45 (10–11): 1557–1589. Bibcode:2010M&PS...45.1557S. doi: 10.1111/j.1945-5100.2010.01116.x . Archived (PDF) from the original on 2016-03-04. Retrieved 2024-01-27.
  3. ↑ Beatty, Kelly (January 2, 2014). "Small asteroid 2014 AA hits Earth". Sky & Telescope . Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  4. ↑ Malik, Tariq (June 4, 2018). "A Tiny Asteroid Just Hit Earth, Sparking a Fireball Over South Africa (Video)". Space.com . Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  5. ↑ Gulon, Tioga (July 3, 2018). "Asteroid 2018 LA hit the atmosphere over Botswana on June 2". News. International Meteor Organization. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  6. ↑ King, Bob (July 6, 2018). "First Fragment Of Shattered Asteroid Recovered In Botswana". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  7. ↑ Geggel, Laura (June 28, 2019). "Astronomers Spotted a Car-Size Asteroid Just Hours Before Impact". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  8. ↑ Baker, Harry (March 16, 2022). "Fridge-size asteroid detected just 2 hours before it slammed into Earth". Live Science . Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  9. ↑ Antier, Karl (March 13, 2022). "2022 EB5 : 5th predicted Earth impact!". News. International Meteor Organization. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  10. ↑ "NASA Program Predicted Impact of Small Asteroid Over Ontario, Canada". NASA/JPL. November 22, 2022. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  11. ↑ "Meteorite Falls: Grimsby, Ontario". NASA Johnson Space Center Astromaterials Research & Exploration Science. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  12. ↑ "CNEOS Predicts Another Small Asteroid Impact, This One over Northwestern France". NASA/JPL CNEOS. February 14, 2023. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  13. ↑ Green, Daniel W. E. (March 6, 2023). "CBET 5230 : 2023 CX_1". Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams. No. 5230. Retrieved 2024-02-18.
  14. ↑ Price, Kiley (January 23, 2024). "Scientists discover near-Earth asteroid hours before it exploded over Berlin". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-01-28.
  15. ↑ Rea, Robert (January 31, 2024). "Meteorites from Asteroid 2024 Bx1, which just hit Earth, may be super-rare space rocks". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-02-05.
  16. ↑ James Dinneen, Matthew Sparkes (September 4, 2024). "A small asteroid hit Earth and burned up over the Philippines". New Scientist. Retrieved 2024-09-04.
  17. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-09-04). "Tiny asteroid burns up over Philippines. 'Discovered this morning,' ESA says". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-09-04.
  18. ↑ Green, Daniel (October 22, 2024). "2024 UQ". IAU Central Bureau Electronic Telegrams. No. 5465. Retrieved 2024-10-25.
  19. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-11-08). "An asteroid hit Earth just hours after being detected. It was the 3rd 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-12-31.
  20. ↑ Brett Tingley (2024-12-03). "Tiny asteroid detected hours before hitting Earth to become 4th 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-12-31.
  21. ↑ Vishwam Sankaran (2024-12-04). "Asteroid on collision course with Russia burns up in spectacular fireball". Space.com. Retrieved 2024-12-31.
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