List of objects with non-zero Torino ratings

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This is a list of possibly hazardous near-Earth objects with Torino scale rankings that are non-zero or that were, at one time, non-zero.

Contents

Torino scale

Graphical representation of the Torino scale. The sizes are approximate. Energy is in TNT equivalent. Torino scale.svg
Graphical representation of the Torino scale. The sizes are approximate. Energy is in TNT equivalent.

The Torino scale is a method for categorizing the impact hazard associated with near-Earth objects (NEOs) such as asteroids and comets. It is intended as a communication tool for astronomers and the public to assess the seriousness of collision predictions, by combining probability statistics and known kinetic damage potentials into a single threat value. The Palermo scale is a similar, but more complex scale.

Near-Earth objects with a Torino scale of 1 are discovered several times a year, and may last a few weeks until they have a longer observation arc that eliminates any possibility of a collision. The only objects on the Torino scale that have ever ranked higher are asteroids 99942 Apophis, which had a rating of 4 for four days in late 2004, the highest recorded rating; (144898) 2004 VD17 , with a historical rating of 2 from February to May 2006; and 2024 YR4 , with a rating of 3 from January 27, 2025 to February 20, 2025. [1]

Potential impacts with high ratings

In March 2002, (163132) 2002 CU11 became the first asteroid with a temporarily positive rating on the Torino Scale, with about a 1 in 9,300 chance of an impact in 2049. [2] Additional observations reduced the estimated risk to zero, and the asteroid was removed from the Sentry Risk Table in April 2002. [3]

Most potential impacts listed on NASA's Sentry List Table or ESA's Risk List have a Torino scale rating of 0, a few each year reach a rating of 1. As of February 2025, only three objects ever received a rating above 1.

On December 24, 2004, 370 m (1,210 ft) asteroid 99942 Apophis was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating given to date, for an impact in April 2029. [4] As observations were collected over the next three days, the calculated chance of impact first increased to as high as 2.7%, [5] then fell back to zero. [6] The risk of impact during later close approaches was completely eliminated [7] and Apophis was removed from the Sentry Risk Table in February 2021. [3]

In February 2006, (144898) 2004 VD17 , having a diameter around 300 metres, was assigned a Torino Scale rating of 2 due to a close encounter predicted for May 4, 2102. [8] After additional observations allowed increasingly precise predictions, the Torino rating was lowered first to 1 in May 2006, then to 0 in October 2006, and the asteroid was removed from the Sentry Risk Table entirely in February 2008. [3]

In late January 2025, 55 m (180 ft) asteroid 2024 YR4 was assigned a Torino scale rating of 3, and had a chance of impact as high as 3.1% on December 22, 2032. [9] Astronomers responded by scheduling more observations (including the James Webb Space Telescope [10] ) as the object receded and got dimmer, to determine its orbit with more precision and thus improve the impact risk prediction. [11] Had 2024 YR4 been confirmed to be on collision course with Earth, its Torino scale value would have been upgraded to 8. The DART mission has proven the capability of redirecting small asteroids, and currently active launch vehicles are sufficient to redirect 2024 YR4 if it had been determined necessary during 2028. [12] However, it was downgraded to a Torino Scale rating of 0 on February 23, 2025.

List of potential impacts with non-zero peak ratings

Below is a comprehensive list of asteroids with potential impacts on Earth over the next 100 years that had been assigned peak cumulative Torino scale ratings above 0 on NASA's Sentry Risk Table.

Currently non-zero

Downgraded to zero

This is a partial list of near-Earth asteroids that have been listed with a Torino scale rating of 1+ and been lowered to 0 or been removed from the Sentry Risk Table altogether. Most objects that reach a Torino scale of 1 have a short observation arc of less than 2 weeks and are quickly removed as the observation arc gets longer and more accurate.

References

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