List of asteroid close approaches to Earth

Last updated

Trajectory of 2004 FH in the Earth-Moon system 2004fs56992main 2004.jpg
Trajectory of 2004 FH in the Earth–Moon system
Goldstone radar images of asteroid 2007 PA8's Earth flyby in 2012 Pa8radar.jpg
Goldstone radar images of asteroid 2007 PA8 's Earth flyby in 2012

This is a list of examples where an asteroid or meteoroid travels close to the Earth. Some are regarded as potentially hazardous objects if they are estimated to be large enough to cause regional devastation.

Contents

Near-Earth object detection technology began to improve around 1998, so objects being detected as of 2004 could have been missed only a decade earlier due to a lack of dedicated near-Earth astronomical surveys. As sky surveys improve, smaller and smaller asteroids are regularly being discovered. The small near-Earth asteroids 2008 TC3 , 2014 AA, 2018 LA, 2019 MO, 2022 EB5, 2022 WJ1, 2023 CX1, 2024 BX1, and 2024 RW1 are the only nine asteroids discovered before impacting into Earth (see asteroid impact prediction). Scientists estimate that several dozen asteroids in the 6–12 m (20–39 ft) size range fly by Earth at a distance closer than the moon every year, but only a fraction of these are actually detected. [1] [2] See also lists dedicated to specific years such as List of asteroid close approaches to Earth in 2023.

Timeline of approaches within one lunar distance

The average distance to the Moon (or lunar distance (LD)) is about 384,400 km (238,900 mi), which is around 30 times the diameter of the Earth. [3] Below are lists of close approaches less than one LD for a given year. (See also near-Earth asteroids and NEO Earth Close Approaches.)

Year(s)ApproachesTotal
2000-2007
2
22
6
23




53
2008
8
2
11




21
2009
11
1
7




19
2010
12
11




23
2011
2
9
1
19





31
2012
1
2
12
1
6




22
2013
1
9
2
12




24
2014
1
8
5
18




32
2015
1
6
3
17




27
2016
17
5
38




60
2017
1
1
23
6
26




57
2018
2
26
11
54





93
2019
4
20
11
47




82
2020
2
26
14
64




106
2021
1
50
33
70





154
2022
1
36
18
71




126
2023
2
23
7
34




66
  Discovered > 1 year in advance
  Discovered > 7 weeks in advance
  Discovered > 1 week in advance
  Discovered up to 1 week in advance
  < 24 hours' warning
  < no warning

Closest per year

Satellites in geostationary orbit Geostationaryjava3Dsideview.gif
Satellites in geostationary orbit

From the list in the first section, these are the closest known asteroids per year that approach Earth within one lunar distance. More than one asteroid per year may be listed if its geocentric distance [note 1] is within a tenth of the lunar distance, or 0.10 LD. For comparison, since a satellite in a geostationary orbit has an altitude of about 36,000 km (22,000 mi), then its geocentric distance is 0.11 LD (approximately three times the width of the Earth).

The table shows that the years 2016 and 2017 had a total of 13 such close encounters that are known. Of these, eight were undetected until after they'd happened and only one was detected with more than 24 hours' notice. 2018 has fared better so far, with six out of the eight known close encounters being detected beforehand, albeit with less than 24 hours' notice in most cases.

This list does not include any of the hundreds of objects that collided with Earth which were not discovered in advance but were recorded by sensors designed to detect detonation of nuclear devices. Of the objects so detected, 78 had an impact energy greater than that of a 1-kiloton device (equivalent to 1,000 tons of TNT), including 11 which had an impact energy greater than that of a 10-kiloton device, i.e. comparable to the atomic bombs detonated on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in the Second World War. [4]

  Rows highlighted red indicate objects which were not discovered until after closest approach

  Rows highlighted yellow indicate objects discovered less than 24 hours before closest approach

  Rows left white indicate objects discovered 1–7 days before closest approach

  Rows highlighted green indicate objects discovered more than one week before closest approach

  Rows highlighted blue indicate objects discovered more than one year before closest approach, i.e. objects successfully cataloged on a previous orbit, rather than being detected during final approach.

YearDate of
closest approach
Date
discovered
ObjectNominal
geocentric
distance
(in 000's km)
Nominal
geocentric
distance
(in LD)
Size of object
(in meters)
(H)Ref
2095 2095-09-062010-09-05 2010 RF12 39.10.10728.4 JPL  · CAD
2034 2034-05-062014-04-292014 HB17788.90.236–1428.1 JPL  · CAD
2032 2032-08-142008-02-182008 DB125.00.3219–4325.7 JPL  · CAD
2029 2029-04-132004-06-19 99942 Apophis 38.00.10310–34019.7 JPL  · CAD
2028 2028-06-262001-11-20 (153814) 2001 WN5 248.70.65610–140018.2 JPL  · CAD
2023 2023-07-132023-07-15 2023 NT1 1000.2626–5923.8 JPL  · CAD
2022 2022-03-112022-03-11 2022 EB5 5.0
(Impact)
0.0130
(Impact)
1.3-3.031.4 JPL  · CAD
2022-03-252022-03-25 2022 FD1 14.80.0222-431 JPL  · CAD
2021 2021-02-092021-02-092021 CZ322.70.061.7–3.930.9 JPL  · CAD
2020
2020-11-132020-11-14 2020 VT4 9.30.024.8–1128.7 JPL  · CAD
2020-09-242020-09-18 2020 SW 280.074.3–9.728.9 JPL  · CAD
2020-08-162020-08-16 2020 QG 9.30.022.9–6.429.8 JPL  · CAD
2020-05-042020-05-04 2020 JJ 13.50.032.7–630 JPL  · CAD
2020-02-012020-02-01 2020 CW 15.70.040.83–1.932.6 JPL  · CAD
2019 2019-10-312019-10-31 2019 UN13 12.60.0331.0–2.232.1 JPL  · CAD
2019-04-042020-02-15 2020 CD3 13.10.0341.9–3.531.7 JPL  · CAD
2019-01-082018-01-08 2019 AS5 15.10.0390.7–2.532.3 JPL  · CAD
2019-03-012019-03-012019 EH123.50.0612–630.1 JPL  · CAD
2019-03-042019-03-05C09Q4H226.60.069 [note 2] 1–331.9 Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (T)
2019-01-172019-01-16P10LGkb33.70.088 [note 3] 1–331.6 Pseudo-MPEC
CNEOS Distance (H) (T)
2019-09-052019-09-062019 RP1370.107.3–1627.8 JPL  · CAD
2018 2018-06-022018-06-02 2018 LA 5.0
(Impact)
0.0130
(Impact)
2–430.5 JPL  · CAD
2018-10-192018-10-19 2018 UA 13.70.0362–630.2 JPL  · CAD
2018-01-222018-01-22
(Unconfirmed)
A106fgF 20?0.03?2–530.6
2018-06-172018-06-17
(Unconfirmed)
A107j4p30.80.0804–1128.9
2018-11-162018-11-172018 WG30.90.0803–1029.3 JPL  · CAD
2018-12-022018-11-29 2018 WV1 33.00.086430.2 JPL  · CAD
2018-08-102018-08-11 2018 PD20 33.50.0877–2227.4 JPL  · CAD
2018-01-182018-01-18 2018 BD 39.20.102–630.2 JPL  · CAD
2017 2017-04-042017-04-032017 GM16.30.0422–729.9 JPL  · CAD
2017-10-202017-10-212017 UJ218.00.0471–530.8 JPL  · CAD
2017-10-222017-10-30
(Unconfirmed)
YU95BEF19.40.0515–1528.2
2017-03-022017-03-022017 EA20.90.0541–530.7 JPL  · CAD
2017-11-262017-11-262017 WE3030.10.0781–331.8 JPL  · CAD
2017-11-142017-11-20
(Unconfirmed)
P10ELNY31.70.0834–1228.8
2017-11-082017-11-16
(Unconfirmed)
A104Vqx33.20.0864–1428.4
2016 2016-02-252016-02-262016 DY3014.30.042–530.5 JPL  · CAD
2016-09-112016-09-112016 RN4123.70.061–531.0 JPL  · CAD
2016-01-122016-01-132016 AH16426.70.073–729.6 JPL  · CAD
2016-03-112016-03-152016 EF195 [5] 31.70.0816–3125.6 JPL  · CAD
2016-11-052016-11-14
(Unconfirmed)
XV88D4F36.70.092–730.0 [6]
2016-01-142016-01-142016 AN16437.00.102–530.5 JPL  · CAD
2015 2015-09-222015-09-242015 SK726.60.073–1428.9 JPL  · CAD
2015-11-152015-11-142015 VY10534.60.094–929.0 JPL  · CAD
2015-02-172015-02-182015 DD139.30.101–330.4 JPL  · CAD
2014 2014-01-022014-01-01 2014 AA 0.45 [7] [8]
(Impact)
0.001
(Impact)
2–430.9 JPL  · CAD
2014-06-032014-06-02 2014 LY21 16.70.044–829.1 JPL  · CAD
2014-09-072014-09-01 2014 RC 39.90.1012–2526.8 JPL  · CAD
2013 2013-12-232013-12-232013 YB27.30.07331.4 JPL  · CAD
2013-02-152012-02-23 367943 Duende 34.10.093024.0 JPL  · CAD
2012 2012-05-292012-05-28 2012 KT42 20.80.05929.0 JPL  · CAD
2011 2011-02-042011-02-04 2011 CQ1 [9] 11.90.03132.1 JPL  · CAD
2011-06-272011-06-22 2011 MD 18.70.051428.0 JPL  · CAD
2011-02-062011-02-072011 CF2240.20.102.430.9 JPL  · CAD
2010 2010-11-172010-11-162010 WA38.90.102–630.0 JPL  · CAD
2009 2009-11-062009-11-06 2009 VA 20.40.054–1328.6 JPL  · CAD
2008 2008-10-072008-10-06 2008 TC3 5.9
(Impact)
0.0152
(Impact)
4.130.4 JPL  · CAD
2008-10-092008-10-092008 TS2612.60.030.5-1.633.2 JPL  · CAD
2008-10-202008-10-212008 US32.90.091–431.4 JPL  · CAD
20072007-10-172007-10-212007 UN1269.70.184–1128.7 JPL  · CAD
20062006-02-232006-02-222006 DD1117.50.3112–3026.5 JPL  · CAD
20052005-11-262005-11-252005 WN383.80.223–629.9 JPL  · CAD
20042004-03-312004-03-31 2004 FU162 12.90.034–1228.7 JPL  · CAD
20032003-09-272003-09-282003 SQ22284.20.222–630.1 JPL  · CAD
20022002-12-112002-12-132002 XV90117.70.3119–4725.5 JPL  · CAD
20012001-01-152001-01-192001 BA1679.00.2115–3826.0 JPL  · CAD
19991999-03-1220132013 EC20315.40.823–1229.0 JPL  · CAD
19941994-12-091994-12-091994 XM1105.50.275–1628.2 JPL  · CAD
19931993-05-201993-05-211993 KA2149.20.393–1129.0 JPL  · CAD
19911991-01-181991-01-18 1991 BA 168.20.444–1328.6 JPL  · CAD
19901990-09-1920032003 SW130213.90.563–1029.1 JPL  · CAD
19841984-01-1020162016 TB57294.80.7713–4326.0 JPL  · CAD
19821982-11-0420122012 TY52314.40.82111–35821.2 JPL  · CAD
19791979-09-0220142014 WX202334.30.873–829.6 JPL  · CAD
19761976-10-1720132013 UG1328.10.8570–22622.4 JPL  · CAD
19711971-04-112002 (612358) 2002 JE9 237.00.62122–39321.2 JPL  · CAD
19651965-10-2720052005 VL1289.20.7510–3326.6 JPL  · CAD
19591959-01-272012 2012 BX34 203.40.536–2127.6 JPL  · CAD
19571957-12-1020102010 XW5860.80.1622–7124.9 JPL  · CAD
19551955-06-1920152015 LR21225.60.5911–3426.5 JPL  · CAD
19541954-03-1320132013 RZ53102.70.271–431.1 JPL  · CAD
19491949-01-0120032003 YS70259.60.683–1029.1 JPL  · CAD
19381938-11-0220182018 RW105.00.272-530.3 JPL  · CAD
19361936-01-0620102010 VB1212.60.5561–14023.2 JPL  · CAD
19351935-03-0820152015 DD54182.80.4818–5725.4 JPL  · CAD
19251925-03-2920122012 FT3539.30.104-929.2 JPL  · CAD
19221922-06-0720172017 LD18.20.0471127.5 JPL  · CAD
19181918-09-172011 (458732) 2011 MD5 350.10.91556–179517.9 JPL  · CAD
19141914-12-311998 (152680) 1998 KJ9 232.90.61279–90019.4 JPL  · CAD
19101910-05-0920072007 JB21288.70.7518–5725.4 JPL  · CAD

A notable case is the relatively large asteroid Duende, which was predicted nearly a year in advance, coincidentally approaching just a few hours after the unrelated Chelyabinsk meteor, which was unpredicted, but injured thousands of people when it impacted.

Largest per year

From the lists in the first section, these are the largest known asteroids per year that approach Earth within one LD. (More than one asteroid per year may be listed if its size is 100 m [330 ft] or more.) For comparison, the 1908 Tunguska event was caused by an object about 60–190 m (200–620 ft) in size, while the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor, which injured thousands of people and damaged buildings when it generated a large airburst over Russia, was estimated to be just 20 m (66 ft) across.

The table shows about 14 events in the decades 1900–2020 involving a body with an upper size estimate of 100 m (330 ft) or more making a close approach to Earth within one LD, with one (the Tunguska object) making impact.

Trajectory of the relatively large 2005 YU55 compared with the orbits of Earth and the Moon on 8-9 Nov 2011 2005 YU55 approach 8-9 November 2011.gif
Trajectory of the relatively large 2005 YU55 compared with the orbits of Earth and the Moon on 8–9 Nov 2011
YearDate of
closest approach
ObjectNominal
geocentric
distance
(in 000s km)
Nominal
geocentric
distance
(in LD)
Est. size
(in m)
(H)Ref
20292029-04-13 99942 Apophis 38.00.10310–34019.7 JPL  · CAD
20282028-06-26 (153814) 2001 WN5 248.70.65921–94218.3 JPL  · CAD
20192019-07-25 2019 OK 780.257–13023.3 JPL  · CAD
20182018-01-03 2018 AH 2980.7765–22622.5 JPL  · CAD
2018-05-15 2010 WC9 2030.5342-13623.5 JPL  · CAD
2018-04-15 2018 GE3 1930.5048–11023.6 JPL  · CAD
20172017-07-21 2017 QP1 630.1631–9124.3 JPL  · CAD
20162016-03-212016 FN563841.0035–8624.2 JPL  · CAD
20152015-01-18 2015 BP513 2400.6212–2726.7 JPL  · CAD
20142014-03-05 2014 DX110 3490.9120–4025.7 JPL  · CAD
20132013-08-04 2013 PJ10 3710.976024.6 JPL  · CAD
20122012-04-01 2012 EG5 2300.606024.3 JPL  · CAD
20112011-11-08 (308635) 2005 YU55 3240.8436021.9 JPL  · CAD
2011-12-03 2011 XC2 3470.9010023.1 JPL  · CAD
20102010-11-022010 UJ72860.7420–4925.4 JPL  · CAD
20092009-03-02 2009 DD45 720.1915–4725.8 JPL  · CAD
20082008-02-15 2008 CK70 3710.9722–7124.9 JPL  · CAD
20072007-01-182007 BD3240.8418–5725.4 JPL  · CAD
20062006-02-232006 DD11170.3111–3426.5 JPL  · CAD
20052005-12-052005 XA82170.5715–4925.7 JPL  · CAD
20042004-03-18 2004 FH 490.1315–4925.7 JPL  · CAD
20032003-12-062003 XJ71480.3911–3626.4 JPL  · CAD
20022002-06-14 2002 MN 1200.3140–13023.6 JPL  · CAD
20012001-01-152001 BA163060.8013–4326.0 JPL  · CAD
19991999-08-122016 CD1371790.4713–4326.0 JPL  · CAD
19941994-12-091994 XM11050.275–1628.2 JPL  · CAD
19931993-05-201993 KA21490.393–1129.0 JPL  · CAD
19911991-04-08 2012 UE34 3220.8446–14923.3 JPL  · CAD
19901990-09-192003 SW1301860.483–1029.1 JPL  · CAD
19881988-10-162010 UK3220.849–3026.8 JPL  · CAD
19821982-11-042012 TY523140.82111-35821.4 JPL  · CAD
19801980-05-182009 WW7740.194-1128.9 JPL  · CAD
19761976-10-172013 UG1328.10.8570–22622.4 JPL  · CAD
19711971-04-11 (612358) 2002 JE9 237.00.62122–39321.2 JPL  · CAD
19361936-01-062010 VB1212.60.5548–15623.2 JPL  · CAD
19251925-08-30 (163132) 2002 CU11 347.00.90443–46718.5 JPL  · CAD
19181918-09-17 (458732) 2011 MD5 350.10.91556–179517.9 JPL  · CAD
19141914-12-31 (152680) 1998 KJ9 232.90.61279–90019.4 JPL  · CAD

The year 2011 was notable as two asteroids with size 100 m (330 ft) or more approached within one lunar distance.

Fastest per year

The average near-Earth asteroid, such as 2019 VF5, passes Earth at 18 km/s. The average short-period comet passes Earth at 30 km/s, and the average long-period comet passes Earth at 53 km/s. [10] A retrograde parabolic Oort cloud comet (e=1, i=180°) could pass Earth at 72 km/s when 1 AU from the Sun.

Fastest asteroid within 1 LD for each year
(these asteroids have eccentric orbits)
Date of
closest
approach
Object Earth
distance
(LD)
Sun
distance
(AU)
Velocity
wrt Earth
(km/s)
Velocity
wrt Sun
(km/s)
Approx.
size (m)
(H)
(abs. mag)
References
2022-12-232022 YW60.550.98329.838.14.8–1128.7 JPL Horizons
2021-10-272021 UA70.330.99427.737.04.7–1128.8 JPL Horizons
2020-03-142020 FD20.850.99533.438.619–4325.7 JPL Horizons
2019-03-282019 FC10.270.99825.937.120–4525.6 JPL Horizons
2018-04-15 2018 GE3 0.501.00329.635.946–10023.8 JPL Horizons
2017-08-14 2017 QP1 0.161.01324.033.437–8324.3 JPL Horizons
2016-03-082016 EV280.400.99325.636.65.3–1228.5 JPL Horizons
2015-03-122015 EO60.290.99423.837.52.4–5.430.2 JPL Horizons

Slowest asteroids passing within 1 LD of Earth
(these asteroids have Earth-like orbits)
Date of
closest
approach
Object Earth
distance
(LD)
Sun
distance
(AU)
Velocity
wrt Earth
(km/s)
Velocity
wrt Sun
(km/s)
Approx.
size (m)
(H)
(abs. mag)
References
2007-03-25 2006 RH120 0.920.9971.3731.13.3–7.529.5 JPL Horizons
2018-10-26 2020 CD3 0.840.9941.4531.31.2–2.731.7 JPL Horizons
2014-12-072014 WX2020.980.9851.6730.63.2–7.129.6 JPL Horizons

Passed by outside atmosphere

Objects with distances greater than 100 km (62 mi) are listed here, although there is no discrete beginning of space.

Objects < 50 meters

Asteroids smaller than about 50 m (160 ft). [11]

2020 QG—Closest asteroid flyby not to hit Earth, at 2,900 km (1,800 mi); closest approach on 16 August 2020. [12] [13]

Nominal
geocentric
distance (AU)
Nominal
geocentric
distance (km)
Size (m)
(approximate)
Date of
closest approach
ObjectRef
0.00007911,9001February 4, 2011 2011 CQ1 JPL  · CAD
0.00008412,5001October 9, 20082008 TS26 JPL  · CAD
0.00008612,9006March 31, 2004 2004 FU162 JPL  · CAD
0.00008813,1001.9–3.5April 4, 2019 2020 CD3 JPL  · CAD
0.00012518,70010June 27, 2011 2011 MD [14] JPL  · CAD
0.00013720,4007November 6, 2009 2009 VA JPL  · CAD
0.00013920,8004–10May 29, 2012 2012 KT42 JPL  · CAD
0.00017726,5003–14September 22, 20152015 SK7 JPL  · CAD
0.0001827,0003December 23, 20132013 YB JPL  · CAD
0.00022133,0004December 2, 2018 2018 WV1 JPL  · CAD
0.00022733,9005December 19, 20042004 YD5 JPL  · CAD
0.00022834,10040×20 [15] February 15, 2013 367943 Duende [16] JPL  · CAD
0.00026038,9003November 17, 20102010 WA JPL  · CAD
0.00026239,3001–3February 17, 20152015 DD1 JPL  · CAD
0.00026739,90012–25September 7, 2014 2014 RC JPL  · CAD
0.00026940,2002.4February 6, 20112011 CF22 JPL  · CAD
0.00032849,10030March 18, 2004 2004 FH JPL  · CAD
0.00034651,8005–10October 12, 2010 2010 TD54 JPL  · CAD
0.00038357,30025May 28, 2012 2012 KP24 [17] JPL  · CAD
0.00043765,4008January 27, 2012 2012 BX34 JPL  · CAD
0.00048272,1009September 8, 20102010 RK53 JPL  · CAD
0.00048372,20019March 2, 2009 2009 DD45 JPL  · CAD
0.00048472,4002–7December 11, 20132013 XS21 JPL  · CAD
0.00053179,4007September 8, 2010 2010 RF12 JPL  · CAD
0.00056484,3005September 27, 20032003 SQ222 JPL  · CAD
0.00056885,00015March 18, 20092009 FH JPL  · CAD
0.00063595,00017October 12, 2012 2012 TC4 JPL  · CAD
0.000704105,40010December 9, 19941994 XM1 [18] JPL  · CAD
0.000856128,0002October 13, 2015 2015 TC25 JPL  · CAD
0.000862129,00015–30January 13, 2010 2010 AL30 JPL  · CAD
0.000998149,2007May 20, 19931993 KA2 [18] JPL  · CAD
0.001124168,2006–10January 18, 1991 1991 BA JPL  · CAD
0.001539230,20047April 1, 2012 2012 EG5 JPL  · CAD
0.001655247,60012September 8, 2010 2010 RX30 JPL  · CAD
0.002454367,10010–17March 4, 2013 2013 EC JPL  · CAD
0.00257384,400 average distance to the Moon [3]
0.002899433,60022April 9, 2010 2010 GA6 JPL  · CAD

Objects > 50 meters

Goldstone radar image of asteroid 2005 YU55 taken November 7, 2011 2005YU55-20111107.jpg
Goldstone radar image of asteroid 2005 YU55 taken November 7, 2011

Asteroids larger than about 50 m (160 ft). [11] [19]

Nominal
geocentric
distance (AU)
Nominal
geocentric
distance (km)
Size (m)
(approximate)
Date of
closest approach
ObjectRef
0.00052178,00057–130July 25, 2019 2019 OK JPL  · CAD
0.000802120,00073June 14, 2002 2002 MN JPL  · CAD
0.00155*233,000500December 31, 1914 (152680) 1998 KJ9 JPL  · CAD
0.00159*239,000200April 11, 1971 (612358) 2002 JE9 JPL  · CAD
0.00210*314,000200November 4, 19822012 TY52 JPL  · CAD
0.002172324,900360November 8, 2011 (308635) 2005 YU55 JPL  · CAD
0.00219*328,000150October 17, 19762013 UG1 JPL  · CAD
0.0022**329,000100April 8, 1991 2012 UE34 JPL  · CAD
0.0023*340,000730August 30, 1925 (163132) 2002 CU11 JPL  · CAD
0.0023340,000100December 3, 2011 2011 XC2 JPL  · CAD
0.00257384,400 average distance to the Moon [3]
<0.00266*<398,000100January 6, 19362010 VB1 JPL  · CAD
0.002891432,400500July 3, 2006 (612901) 2004 XP14 JPL  · CAD
0.003704554,200250January 29, 2008 2007 TU24 JPL  · CAD
0.004241*634,500300April 26, 1942 69230 Hermes JPL  · CAD
0.004572684,000300March 22, 1989 4581 Asclepius JPL  · CAD
0.004950740,500300October 30, 1937 69230 Hermes JPL  · CAD
0.0062*930,000200December 27, 1976 2010 XC15 JPL  · CAD
0.008361,251,000325June 8, 2014 2014 HQ124 JPL  · CAD
0.0093*1,390,0005000August 27, 1969 (192642) 1999 RD32 JPL  · CAD
0.01248551,867,800400December 16, 2001 (33342) 1998 WT24 JPL  · CAD
0.0364155,447,6001000June 14, 2012 2012 LZ1 JPL  · CAD
0.0432946,476,6001600November 5, 2012 (214869) 2007 PA8 [20] JPL  · CAD
0.0463326,900,0005400December 12, 2012 4179 Toutatis [21] JPL  · CAD

Asteroids with large uncertainty regions are not included.

* Asteroid approach did not occur during an observed apparition. Passage is calculated by integrating the equations of motion.

** Only the nominal (best-fit) orbit shows a passage this close. The uncertainty region is still somewhat large due to a short observation arc.

Predicted encounters

Incomplete list of asteroids larger than about 50 m (160 ft) predicted to pass close to Earth (see also asteroid impact prediction and Sentry (monitoring system)): [19] [22]

Nominal
geocentric
distance (AU)
Nominal
geocentric
distance (km)
Size (m)
(estimated)
Date of
closest approach
ObjectJPL-Ref
0.00025638,300325April 13, 2029 99942 Apophis JPL  · CAD
0.000670100,20075–170October 19, 2129 2007 UW1 JPL  · CAD
0.000721107,80050–120April 8, 2041 2012 UE34 JPL  · CAD
0.001572235,200170–370January 2, 2101 (456938) 2007 YV56 JPL  · CAD
0.001585237,000360±40November 8, 2075 (308635) 2005 YU55 JPL  · CAD
0.001629243,700370–840December 1, 2140 (153201) 2000 WO107 JPL  · CAD
0.001635**244,600190–420October 25, 2077 (549948) 2011 WL2 JPL  · CAD
0.001663248,800700–1500June 26, 2028 (153814) 2001 WN5 JPL  · CAD
0.001980296,200170–370January 22, 2148 (85640) 1998 OX4 JPL  · CAD
0.002222332,500190–250May 28, 2065 2005 WY55 JPL  · CAD
0.002241335,20075–170March 23, 21462009 DO111 JPL  · CAD
0.00257384,400for comparison, this is the average distance to the Moon [3]

A list of predicted NEO approaches at larger distances is maintained as a database by the NASA Near Earth Object Program. [23]

** Only the nominal (best-fit) orbit shows a passage this close. The uncertainty region is still somewhat large due to a short observation arc.

Earth-grazers

All-sky photo with the Earth-grazing meteoroid of 13 October 1990 (the light track across the picture going from the south to the north) taken at Cervena hora (Czechoslovakia), one of the stations of the European Fireball Network. The bright track on the left is the Moon. Earth-grazing meteoroid, 13 October 1990 (2).jpg
All-sky photo with the Earth-grazing meteoroid of 13 October 1990 (the light track across the picture going from the south to the north) taken at Červená hora (Czechoslovakia), one of the stations of the European Fireball Network. The bright track on the left is the Moon.

Objects which enter and then leave Earth's atmosphere, the so-called Earth-grazers, are a distinct phenomenon, inasmuch as entering the lower atmosphere can constitute an impact event rather than a close pass. Earth-grazer can also be short for a body that "grazes" the orbit of the Earth, in a different context.

Altitude
(km)
Size (m)
(approximate)
Mass (kg)
(approximate)
Date of
closest approach
ObjectNoteRef.
0mean sea level
8.8 Mount Everest (height)
585105–106August 10, 1972 1972 Great Daylight Fireball above the United States and CanadaFirst scientifically observed [24]
71.4100March 29, 20062006 Earth-grazing Fireball above Japan

[25]

98.744October 13, 1990 1990 Earth-grazing Fireball above Czechoslovakia and PolandFirst captured from 2 distant locations, which enabled computing its orbit by geometrical methods [26]
August 7, 20072007 Earth-grazing FireballIts pre-encounter orbit belonged to the rare Aten type [27]
100 Kármán line

Animations

Known near-Earth objects - as of January 2018
Video (0:55; July 23, 2018) Asteroids-KnownNearEarthObjects-Animation-UpTo20180101.gif
Known near-Earth objects – as of January 2018
Video (0:55; July 23, 2018)
Animation of the 2015 TB145 (NEO) flyby, as seen from the center of the Earth, with hourly trace circles along the path of motion Asteroid flyby 2015 TB145.gif
Animation of the 2015 TB145 (NEO) flyby, as seen from the center of the Earth, with hourly trace circles along the path of motion

Overview

Objects between earth and moon.jpg
Diagram showing spacecraft and notable asteroids (past and future) between the Earth and the Moon.
Plot of orbits of known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (size over 140 m [460 ft] and passing within 7.6 million km [4.7 million mi] of Earth's orbit) as of early 2013 (alternate image) Potentially Hazardous Asteroids 2013.png
Plot of orbits of known Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (size over 140 m [460 ft] and passing within 7.6 million km [4.7 million mi] of Earth's orbit) as of early 2013 (alternate image)

Notes

  1. Distance from the center of Earth to the center of the object. See the NASA/JPL Solar System Dynamics Glossary: Geocentric Archived 2013-02-14 at the Wayback Machine . Earth has a radius of approximately 6,400 km.
  2. the asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.
  3. Distance error: 0.000420 AU, approach range: 0.016 to 0.25 LD. There was a roughly 2% chance of impact. The asteroid is most likely between 1 and 14 meters across, so would probably be detectable. The asteroid is unconfirmed and will likely never receive a provisional designation.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Near-Earth object</span> Small Solar System body with an orbit that can bring it close to Earth

A near-Earth object (NEO) is any small Solar System body orbiting the Sun whose closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) is less than 1.3 times the Earth–Sun distance. This definition applies to the object's orbit around the Sun, rather than its current position, thus an object with such an orbit is considered an NEO even at times when it is far from making a close approach of Earth. If an NEO's orbit crosses the Earth's orbit, and the object is larger than 140 meters (460 ft) across, it is considered a potentially hazardous object (PHO). Most known PHOs and NEOs are asteroids, but about 0.35% are comets.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Potentially hazardous object</span> Hazardous near-Earth asteroid or comet

A potentially hazardous object (PHO) is a near-Earth object – either an asteroid or a comet – with an orbit that can make close approaches to the Earth and which is large enough to cause significant regional damage in the event of impact. They are conventionally defined as having a minimum orbit intersection distance with Earth of less than 0.05 astronomical units and an absolute magnitude of 22 or brighter, the latter of which roughly corresponds to a size larger than 140 meters. More than 99% of the known potentially hazardous objects are no impact threat over the next 100 years. As of September 2022, just 17 of the known potentially hazardous objects listed on the Sentry Risk Table could not be excluded as potential threats over the next hundred years. Over hundreds if not thousands of years though, the orbits of some "potentially hazardous" asteroids can evolve to live up to their namesake.

<span class="nowrap">2012 TC<sub>4</sub></span>

2012 TC4 is a tumbling micro-asteroid classified as a bright near-Earth object of the Apollo group, approximately 10 meters (30 feet) in diameter. It was first observed by Pan-STARRS at Haleakala Observatory on the Hawaiian island of Maui, in the United States. As of 1 October 2017, it had a small Earth minimum orbital intersection distance of 0.000149 AU (22,300 km). On 12 October 2017, it passed Earth at 0.00033524 AU (50,151 km). The asteroid was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 16 October 2017 and with a 5-year observation arc has a well-known orbit. For example, on the previously risk-listed date of 12 October 2022, it is now known that the asteroid will be more than 3 AU (450 million km) from Earth.

2013 TX68 is an Apollo asteroid and near-Earth object discovered on 6 October 2013 by the Catalina Sky Survey, during which it was near a close approach of 5.4 Lunar distances (LD) from the Earth. The asteroid only has a 10-day observation arc which makes long-term predictions of its position less certain. It was observed for three days as it approached Earth in the night sky starting with the sixth of October, 2013. Then it became unobservable by being between the Earth and the Sun, then not recovered due to its small size and dimness. Precovery images by Pan-STARRS from 29 September 2013 were announced on 11 February 2016 that extended the observation arc to 10 days. It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 11 February 2016, so there is no risk of impact from this object for the next hundred years or more. The asteroid was last observed on 9 October 2013.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">469219 Kamoʻoalewa</span> Near-Earth asteroid

469219 Kamoʻoalewa, provisionally designated 2016 HO3, is a very small asteroid, fast rotator and near-Earth object of the Apollo group, approximately 40–100 meters (130–330 feet) in diameter. At present it is a quasi-satellite of Earth, and currently the second-smallest, closest, and most stable known such quasi-satellite (after 2023 FW13). The asteroid was discovered by Pan-STARRS at Haleakala Observatory on 27 April 2016. It was named Kamoʻoalewa, a Hawaiian word that refers to an oscillating celestial object. The object's Earth-like orbit and its composition of lunar-like silicates may be a result of it being lunar ejecta.

<span class="nowrap">2010 WC<sub>9</sub></span>

2010 WC9, unofficially designated ZJ99C60, is a sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 100 meters (330 feet) in diameter. First observed for eleven days by the Catalina Sky Survey in 2010, the asteroid was recovered in May 2018 during its sub-lunar close encounter with Earth.

2011 ES4 (also written 2011 ES4) is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 22–49 meters (72–160 feet) in diameter. It was first observed on 2 March 2011 when the asteroid was about 0.054 AU (8,100,000 km; 5,000,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 159 degrees. It passed closest approach to Earth on 13 March 2011. Before the 2020 approach, the asteroid had a short observation arc of 4 days and had not been observed since March 2011. The asteroid was expected to pass within 1 lunar distance of Earth in early September 2020, but did not. There was no risk of a 2020 impact because the line of variation (LOV) did not pass through where Earth would be, and the closest possible 2020 Earth approach was about 0.00047 AU (70,000 km; 44,000 mi). One line of variation showed the asteroid passing closest to Earth on 5 September 2020 at 0.06 AU (9,000,000 km; 5,600,000 mi) with a magnitude of 23, which would place it near the limiting magnitude of even the best automated astronomical surveys.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 QG</span> Earth-crossing asteroid

2020 QG, also known by its internal designation ZTF0DxQ, is an Earth-crossing asteroid, a few meters in diameter. It belongs to the Apollo group, and passed above the surface of Earth approximately 2,950 kilometres (1,830 mi) away on 16 August 2020 at 04:09 UT. It was first imaged by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) at the Palomar Observatory about 6 hours after this closest approach, and was later identified by Kunal Deshmukh, a student at the Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, along with colleagues Kritti Sharma, Chen-Yen Hsu and Bryce T. Bolin analyzing images from the ZTF.

2019 BE5 is a sub-kilometer near-Earth asteroid classified under the Aten group. It was discovered on 31 January 2019, by the Zwicky Transient Facility at the Palomar Observatory. The asteroid was discovered one day after it had made a close approach to Earth from a distance of 0.00784 AU (1.173 million km; 3.05 LD).

<span class="nowrap">(231937) 2001 FO<sub>32</sub></span> Asteroid

(231937) 2001 FO32 is a near-Earth asteroid classified as a potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. With an estimated diameter around 550 m (1,800 ft), it was discovered by the Lincoln Near-Earth Asteroid Research at Socorro, New Mexico on 23 March 2001. The asteroid safely passed by Earth on 21 March 2021 16:03 UTC from a closest approach distance of 0.0135 AU (2.02 million km; 1.25 million mi), or 5.25 lunar distances (LD). During the day before closest approach, 2001 FO32 reached a peak apparent magnitude of 11.7 and was visible to ground-based observers with telescope apertures of at least 20 cm (8 in). It is the largest and one of the fastest asteroids to approach Earth within 10 LD (3.8 million km; 2.4 million mi) in 2021.

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