(29075) 1950 DA

Last updated

(29075) 1950 DA
1950 DA.png
Radar image of 1950 DA taken at Arecibo in March 2001, from a distance of 22  LD or 0.052  AU
Discovery [1]
Discovered by Carl A. Wirtanen
Discovery site Lick Obs.
Discovery date23 February 1950
Designations
(29075) 1950 DA
1950 DA ·2000 YK66
NEO  · Apollo  · PHA [1] [2]  · risk listed
Orbital characteristics [2]
Epoch 13 September 2023 (JD  2460200.5)
Uncertainty parameter 0
Observation arc 73.61  yr (26,885 d)
Aphelion 2.5612  AU
Perihelion 0.8351 AU
1.6982 AU
Eccentricity 0.5082
2.213 yr (809 d)
45.28°
0° 26m 43.44s / day
Inclination 12.17°
356.65°
224.67°
Earth  MOID 0.04138 AU (16.109  LD)
Proper orbital elements [3]
Precession of perihelion
13.655  arcsec  / yr
Precession of the ascending node
−35.824  arcsec  / yr
Physical characteristics
Dimensions1.39  km × 1.46  km × 1.07  km [4]
Mean diameter
Mass >4×1012  kg [lower-alpha 1]
Mean density
>3.5  g/cm3 [4]
2.12160±0.00004  h [4]

    (29075) 1950 DA (provisional designation 1950 DA) is a risk-listed asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 1.3 kilometers (0.81 miles) in diameter. [4] It once had the highest known probability of impacting Earth. [11] In 2002, it had the highest Palermo rating with a value of 0.17 for a possible collision in 2880. [12] Since that time, the estimated risk has been updated several times. In December 2015, the odds of an Earth impact were revised to 1 in 8,300 (0.012%) with a Palermo rating of −1.42. [11] As of February 2024, It is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with the second highest cumulative Palermo rating of −2.05 (impact risk of 1-in-34,000). [13] [14] 1950 DA is not assigned a Torino scale rating, because the 2880 date is over 100 years in the future.

    Contents

    Discovery and nomenclature

    1950 DA was first discovered on 23 February 1950 by Carl A. Wirtanen at Lick Observatory. [2] It was observed for seventeen days [5] and then lost because this short observation arc resulted in large uncertainties in Wirtanen's orbital solution. On 31 December 2000, it was recovered at Lowell Observatory and was announced as 2000 YK66 on 4 January 2001. [15] Just two hours later it was recognized as 1950 DA. [5] [16]

    Observations

    1950 DA (color).png
    Asteroid 1950 DA, Arecibo Observatory radar image (coloured version)
    1950 DA radar movie.gif
    Arecibo radar movie of 1950 DA obtained during 48 minutes (37% of a rotation) on 4 March 2001

    On 5 March 2001, 1950 DA made a close approach to Earth at a distance of 0.05207  AU (7.790 million  km ; 4.840 million  mi ; 20.26  LD ). [17] It was studied by radar at the Goldstone and Arecibo observatories from March 3 to 7, 2001. [5]

    The studies showed that the asteroid has a mean diameter of 1.1 km, assuming that 1950 DA is a retrograde rotator. [18] Optical lightcurve analysis by Lenka Šarounová and Petr Pravec shows that its rotation period is 2.1216±0.0001 hours. Due to its short rotation period and high radar albedo, 1950 DA is thought to be fairly dense (more than 3.5 g/cm3, assuming that it has no internal strength) and likely composed of nickeliron. [4] In August 2014, scientists from the University of Tennessee determined that 1950 DA is a rubble pile rotating faster than the breakup limit for its density, implying the asteroid is held together by van der Waals forces rather than gravity. [19] [20]

    1950 DA made distant approaches to Earth on 20 May 2012, 5 February 2021 and 5 February 2023. [17] However, at these times it was a quarter to half an AU away from Earth, preventing more useful astrometrics and timing that occurs when an object is closer to Earth. The next close approach that presents a good opportunity to observe the asteroid will be on 2 March 2032, when it will be 0.076 AU (11.4 million km) from Earth. The following table lists next five approaches closer than 0.10 AU. [17] By 2136 the close approach solutions are becoming notably more divergent.

    Position uncertainty and increasing divergence [17]
    Date JPL SBDB
    nominal geocentric
    distance (AU)
    uncertainty
    region
    (3-sigma)
    2 March 20320.07575 AU (11,332,365 km)±33 km
    19 March 20740.09546 AU (14,280,525 km)±115 km
    10 March 21050.03632 AU (5,432,776 km)±21 km
    1 March 21360.04260 AU (6,372,235 km)±869 km
    8 March 21870.03522 AU (5,269,533 km)±2383 km

    Possible Earth impact

    1950 DA has one of the best-determined asteroid orbital solutions. This is due to a combination of: [5]

    Main-belt asteroid 78 Diana (~125 km in diameter) will pass about 0.003  AU (450,000  km ; 280,000  mi ) from 1950 DA on 5 August 2150. [5] At that distance and size, Diana will perturb 1950 DA enough so that the change in trajectory is notable by 2880 (730 years later). In addition, over the intervening time, 1950 DA's rotation will cause its orbit to slightly change as a result of the Yarkovsky effect. If 1950 DA continues on its present orbit, it may approach Earth on 16 March 2880, though the mean trajectory passes many millions of kilometres from Earth, so 1950 DA does not have a significant chance of impacting Earth. As of February 2024, according to the latest solution dated 6 February 2022, the probability of an impact in 2880 is 1 in 34,000 (0.0029%). [11]

    The energy released by a collision with an object the size of 1950 DA would cause major effects on the climate and biosphere, which would be devastating to human civilization. The discovery of the potential impact heightened interest in asteroid deflection strategies.

    See also

    Notes

    1. A reported volume of 1.14 km3 × density of 3.5 g/cm3 yields a mass (m = d × v) of 3.99×1012 kg

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    References

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