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A near-Earth object (NEO) is any small Solar System body orbiting the Sun whose closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) is less than 1.3 times the Earth–Sun distance. This definition applies to the object's orbit around the Sun, rather than its current position, thus an object with such an orbit is considered an NEO even at times when it is far from making a close approach of Earth. If an NEO's orbit crosses the Earth's orbit, and the object is larger than 140 meters (460 ft) across, it is considered a potentially hazardous object (PHO). Most known PHOs and NEOs are asteroids, but about 0.35% are comets.
(29075) 1950 DA is a risk-listed asteroid, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group, approximately 1.3 kilometers in diameter. It once had the highest known probability of impacting Earth. In 2002, it had the highest Palermo rating with a value of 0.17 and a probability of 1 in 306 (0.33%) for a possible collision in 2880. Since that time, the estimated risk has been updated several times. In December 2015, the odds of an Earth impact were revised to 1 in 8,300 (0.012%) with a Palermo rating of −1.42. As of December 2024, it is listed on the Sentry Risk Table with the highest cumulative Palermo rating of -0.91. 1950 DA is not assigned a Torino scale rating, because the 2880 date is over 100 years in the future. As of 5 December 2024, the odds of an Earth impact reached 1 in 2,500 (0.04%).
1991 BA is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group that was first observed by Spacewatch on 18 January 1991, and passed within 160,000 km (100,000 mi) of Earth. This is a little less than half the distance to the Moon. With a 5-hour observation arc the asteroid has a poorly constrained orbit and is considered lost. It could be a member of the Beta Taurids.
2007 WD5 is an Apollo asteroid some 50 m (160 ft) in diameter and a Mars-crosser asteroid first observed on 20 November 2007, by Andrea Boattini of the Catalina Sky Survey. Early observations of 2007 WD5 caused excitement amongst the scientific community when it was estimated as having as high as a 1 in 25 chance of colliding with Mars on 30 January 2008. However, by 9 January 2008, additional observations allowed NASA's Near Earth Object Program (NEOP) to reduce the uncertainty region resulting in only a 1-in-10,000 chance of impact. 2007 WD5 most likely passed Mars at a distance of 6.5 Mars radii. Due to this relatively small distance and the uncertainty level of the prior observations, the gravitational effects of Mars on its trajectory are unknown and, according to Steven Chesley of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory Near-Earth Object program, 2007 WD5 is currently considered 'lost' (see lost asteroids).
2008 TC3 (Catalina Sky Survey temporary designation 8TA9D69) was an 80-tonne (80-long-ton; 90-short-ton), 4.1-meter (13 ft) diameter asteroid that entered Earth's atmosphere on October 7, 2008. It exploded at an estimated 37 kilometers (23 mi) above the Nubian Desert in Sudan. Some 600 meteorites, weighing a total of 10.5 kilograms (23.1 lb), were recovered; many of these belonged to a rare type known as ureilites, which contain, among other minerals, nanodiamonds.
2010 RF12 is a very small asteroid, classified as near-Earth object of the Apollo group, that passed between Earth and the Moon on 8 September 2010, at 21:12 UTC, approaching Earth within 79,000 kilometres (49,000 mi) above Antarctica. The asteroid was discovered by the Mount Lemmon Survey near Tucson, Arizona on 5 September 2010 along with 2010 RX30. Based on a short 7-day observation arc from that apparation, it was listed for 12 years on the Sentry Risk Table as the asteroid with the greatest known probability (5%) of impacting Earth. 2010 RF12 was rediscovered in August 2022, and now has a 12-year observation arc and a much better known orbit. As of the December 2022 solution which accounts for nongravitational forces, there is a 1-in-10 chance of an Earth impact on 5 September 2095.
(367789) 2011 AG5, provisional designation 2011 AG5, is a sub-kilometer asteroid, classified as near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. It has a diameter of about 140 meters (460 ft). It was removed from the Sentry Risk Table on 21 December 2012 and as such it now has a rating of 0 on the Torino Scale. It was recovered in December 2022 extending the observation arc from 4.8 years to 14 years. As of 2023, the distance between the orbits of Earth and 2011 AG5 is 0.0004 AU (60,000 km; 0.16 LD)
(471240) 2011 BT15, provisional designation 2011 BT15, is a stony, sub-kilometer sized asteroid and fast rotator, classified as a near-Earth object and potentially hazardous asteroid of the Apollo group. It had been one of the objects with the highest impact threat on the Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale.
2014 AA was a small Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 2–4 meters in diameter that struck Earth on 2 January 2014. It was discovered on 1 January 2014 by Richard Kowalski at the Mount Lemmon Survey at an apparent magnitude of 19 using a 1.52-meter (60 in) reflecting telescope at Mount Lemmon Observatory. 2014 AA was only observed over a short observation arc of about 70 minutes, and entered Earth's atmosphere about 21 hours after discovery. Nonetheless, it remains one of only a few asteroids observed before impact.
2018 LA, also known as ZLAF9B2, was a small Apollo near-Earth asteroid 2.6–3.8 m (9–12 ft) in mean diameter that impacted the atmosphere with small fragments reaching the Earth at roughly 16:44 UTC on 2 June 2018 near the border of Botswana and South Africa. It had been discovered only 8 hours earlier by the Mount Lemmon Survey, Arizona and based on 1+1⁄2 hours of observations, was calculated to have a roughly 85% chance of impact likely somewhere between Australia and Madagascar.
Asteroid impact prediction is the prediction of the dates and times of asteroids impacting Earth, along with the locations and severities of the impacts.
2011 ES4 (also written 2011 ES4) is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 22–49 meters (72–160 feet) in diameter. It was first observed on 2 March 2011 when the asteroid was about 0.054 AU (8,100,000 km; 5,000,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 159 degrees. It passed closest approach to Earth on 13 March 2011. Before the 2020 approach, the asteroid had a short observation arc of 4 days and had not been observed since March 2011. The asteroid was expected to pass within 1 lunar distance of Earth in early September 2020, but did not. There was no risk of a 2020 impact because the line of variation (LOV) did not pass through where Earth would be, and the closest possible 2020 Earth approach was about 0.00047 AU (70,000 km; 44,000 mi). One line of variation showed the asteroid passing closest to Earth on 5 September 2020 at 0.06 AU (9,000,000 km; 5,600,000 mi) with a magnitude of 23, which would place it near the limiting magnitude of even the best automated astronomical surveys.
2019 MO, temporarily designated A10eoM1, was a small, harmless 3-meter near-Earth asteroid discovered by ATLAS–MLO that impacted Earth's atmosphere on 22 June 2019 at 21:25 UT. The impact of the bolide generated a 5-kiloton-equivalent explosion off the south coast of Puerto Rico which was detected by infrasound detectors. The strewn field would be spread over the Caribbean Sea.
2018 VP1 is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid roughly 2 meters (7 feet) in diameter. The asteroid had a 0.41% chance (1 in 240) of impacting Earth on 2 November 2020 01:12 UT. It was discovered on 3 November 2018 when it was about 0.003 AU (450,000 km; 280,000 mi) from Earth and had a solar elongation of 165 degrees. The asteroid has a short 12.9 day observation arc. It was last observed on 16 November 2018 by the European Southern Observatory Very Large Telescope at apparent magnitude 26 pushing the telescope close to the limiting magnitude.
2022 EB5 was a small, two-metre Apollo near-Earth asteroid that disintegrated in Earth's atmosphere at 21:22 UTC on 11 March 2022, over the Arctic Ocean southwest of the Norwegian island Jan Mayen. With an atmospheric entry speed of 18 km/s (11 mi/s), the asteroid's impact generated a 4-kiloton-equivalent fireball that was detected by infrasound from Greenland and Norway. A bright flash possibly associated with the event was reported by observers from Northern Iceland.
2022 WJ1, formerly designated C8FF042, was a small, harmless ≈1-metre near-Earth asteroid or meteoroid that impacted Earth's atmosphere on 19 November 2022 at 08:27 UT in Southern Ontario, Canada, above the Golden Horseshoe region, southwest of Toronto. Meteorites were detected by weather radar during dark flight.
2023 CX1, initially known under temporary designation Sar2667, was a metre-sized asteroid or meteoroid that entered Earth's atmosphere on 13 February 2023 02:59 UTC and disintegrated as a meteor over the coast of Normandy, France along the English Channel. It was discovered less than seven hours before impact, by Hungarian astronomer Krisztián Sárneczky at Konkoly Observatory's Piszkéstető Station in the Mátra Mountains, Hungary. 2023 CX1 is the seventh asteroid discovered before impacting Earth and successfully predicted, and the third of those for which meteorites have been recovered. Before it impacted, 2023 CX1 was a near-Earth asteroid on an Earth-crossing Apollo-type orbit.
2024 RW1, previously known under its provisional designation CAQTDL2, was a 1-meter-sized asteroid or meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on September 5, 2024, at around 12:40 a.m. PHT (September 4, 16:40 UTC) above the western Pacific Ocean near Cagayan, Philippines. 2024 RW1 is the ninth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by Jacqueline Fazekas at NASA-funded Catalina Sky Survey.
2024 UQ, designated formerly as A11dc6D, was a one-meter meteoroid that struck the Earth's atmosphere and burned up harmlessly on 22 October 2024 above the Pacific Ocean off the coast of California. 2024 UQ is the tenth impact event that was successfully predicted, which was discovered by the ATLAS survey. The Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reported a fireball on 10:54 (UTC).
References
- ↑ "MPEC 2024-X68: 2024 XA1". Minor Planet Electronic Circular. Minor Planet Center. 3 December 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
- 1 2 "(2024 XA1) – JPL Small-Body Database Lookup". ssd.jpl.nasa.gov. NASA / JPL . Retrieved 4 December 2024.
- ↑ P. Dawan (6 December 2024). "'Spectacular' asteroid blazes over Siberia just hours after it was detected". Space.com. Retrieved 7 December 2024.
- ↑ K. K. Whitt (3 December 2024). "Small asteroid hit Earth's atmosphere over Siberia today". EarthSky.org. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
- ↑ B. Tingley (3 December 2024). "Tiny asteroid detected hours before hitting Earth to become 4th 'imminent impactor' of 2024". Space.com. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
- 1 2 J. Thomson (4 December 2024). "Asteroid nearly hits Earth in Siberian fireball". NewsWeek. Retrieved 5 December 2024.
- ↑ A. Carpineti; F. Benson (4 December 2024). "2024's Record Fourth Predicted Asteroid Impact Had The Second Longest Warning Time Ever". IFLScience.com. Retrieved 5 December 2024.
