Opinion polling for the 2011 Croatian parliamentary election

Last updated

Opinion polling for the 2011 Croatian parliamentary election started early after the previous election with polls on individual parties. As electoral coalitions were formed, coalition ratings started to be polled as well. The poll results below are listed by category and ordered in reverse chronological order. Major political events are indicated chronologically between individual polls. Concurrent polling was at the time also done for the 2012 Croatian European Union membership referendum.

Contents

Exit polls

Seat projections

The three main national television stations contracted Ipsos Puls to conduct exit polling at 403 stations. [1] [2] [3]

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample size HDZ  · HGS  · DC Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour Jurčić et al. Grubišić et al. HSP-AS  · HČSP Ladonja
4 Dec 2011 19:50 Ipsos Puls for HRT/Nova TV/RTL Televizija 30,0004082260060211
4 Dec 2011 19:00 Ipsos Puls for HRT/Nova TV/RTL Televizija 25,0004083260060210

Campaign poll results

Overall party rating

Generic national polls are conducted to indicate overall party rating and provide a trend indicator, while the actual election is conducted not with a single electoral unit but with the Croatian Parliament electoral districts.

Cro Demoskop polling since January 2008 for the Croatian parliamentary election 2011. Croatian parliamentary election 2011 polling.png
Cro Demoskop polling since January 2008 for the Croatian parliamentary election 2011.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour Jurčić et al. Other Undecided
4 Dec Election Day. [4]
3 Dec Election silence begins. [4]
29-30 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,30019%37.5%4.2%2.5%4.4%3.2%5.6%3.2%6.4%14%
25 Nov Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00019%37.5%2.7%2.7%2.5%2.8%6.6%4.3%5.4%14.7%
17 NovOfficial candidate lists finalized. [4]
8 NovCroatian Democratic Union signs a pre-election coalition with the Croatian Citizen Party in two electoral districts. [5]
2-3 Nov CRO Demoskop Archived 2011-11-06 at the Wayback Machine 1,30018.3%37.2%3.6%2.5%3.9%3.1%5.7%3%4.7%18%
31 Oct General election officially called: President of the Republic agrees to a dissolution of Parliament, allowing the general election to take place on 4 December. [6]
28 Oct MPs vote to dissolve Parliament. [7]
28 OctFormer PM and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader appears in court for the first of many pending trials for corruption. [8]
27 OctAs a result of the ongoing investigation of the party's 'black funds', USKOK and the Attorney General issue an indictment against HDZ as a legal entity. [9]
25 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00020.3%38.8%2.5%1.6%4.7%1.6%6.3%4.4%6.8%13%
13 OctAfter Vladimir Šeks and HDZ caused a number of incidents in a parliamentary immunity proceedings, most of the opposition parties (Kukuriku coalition and Labour) decided to boycott the work of the Sabor. Their concerns were also echoed by SDSS which is part of the ruling coalition, causing a quorum issue. [10]
6 Oct Ljubo Jurčić signs a formal pre-election coalition agreement with the Party of Pensioners and the Alliance of Primorje-Gorski Kotar. [11]
3-4 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,30019%36.7%4.4%2.5%3.7%3.5%~5%7.2%18%
27 SepHDZ reveals its manifesto for the upcoming election. [12]
26 Sep Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00020.1%37.2%4.2%3.5%4.5%2.5%6.1%5.1%7.2%9.6%
23 Sep USKOK issues a second indictment against Ivo Sanader for taking a 10 million euro bribe from MOL [13]
18 Sep Hendal for HRT 87310%33.4%0.9%0.9%1.9%1.6%2.4%8.7%40.2%
17 SepHDZ holds its 14th party convention. [14]
15 Sep Kukuriku coalition reveals its political manifesto called 'Plan 21'. [15]
11 SepFormer HDZ treasurer Branka Pavošević testifies to USKOK about the party's 'black funds' and illegal finances used for previous elections. [16]
1-2 Sep CRO Demoskop 1,30020.4%37%4.4%2%2.8%3.2%4.9%7%19.7%
25 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00020.8%35.3%5.7%3.5%3.5%3.2%5.3%4.3%9.5%12.1%
23 Aug Prizma for HDZ 3,00024.9%37.8% [17] [18]
1-3 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,30020.1% [19] 37.4% [18] 4.5%<2%3.1% [20] 2.8%4.3%<2%N/A20.4%
25 Jul Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00023.8% [21] 37.8% [22] 4.3%3.1%3.6%3.3%4.7%N/A9%11%
15 Jul Kukuriku coalition leaders sign a formal pre-election coalition agreement. [23]

Seat projections

Because the seats in the Parliament are split according to Croatian Parliament electoral districts, seat projections significantly vary from a generic overall poll.

The seat projections do not include:

The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

Because of the nature of the D'Hondt method and the division into constituencies, seat projections are less reliable, so some polls list tentative options, indicated in parentheses.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ Kukuriku HSS HDSSB HSP HSLS Labour Jurčić et al. Grubišić et al. HSP-AS Other
15-28 Nov 2011 Promocija Plus for HRT 8,0004279143171110
15-29 Nov 2011 Ipsos Puls for Večernji list, Media servis & Nova TV 4,1714379351341100
15-25 Nov 2011 GFK for RTL 4,0003985144131200
11-24 Nov 2011 Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 4,0004183133161100
4 Nov 2011 Ipsos Puls for Večernji list, Media servis & Nova TV 4,04741782
(3)
4117
(3)
41
(0)
10
14-28 Oct 2011 GFK for RTL 4,0003590035151000
25 Oct 2011Promocija Plus for HNS [24] 8,00044772
(2)
4
(1)
20
(4)
62
(3)
003

Early polling

Overall party rating

Generic national polls are conducted to indicate overall party rating and provide a trend indicator, while the actual election is conducted not with a single electoral unit but with the Croatian Parliament electoral districts.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

2011

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLSOtherUndecidedHDZ coalitionSDP coalition
1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,30018.4%27.9%5.5%4.4%3.2%3.5%2.2%N/AN/A21.5% [25] 38% [22]
26 Jun Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00019.3%26.6%4.7%4.7%3.9%4.6%4.4%17.3%14.5%20.6% [25] 35.9% [22]
2-3 Jun CRO Demoskop [ dead link ]1,30017.8%29.8%6.2%3.9%3.1%3.5%2.1%N/AN/A19.9%39.8%
25 May Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00020.3%30.3%4.4%4.5%4.7%6.1%2.9%7.9%14.7%22% [25] 38.2% [22]
16 May GFK for RTL 6008%26.4%3.3%0.9%2.6%1.5%1.5%N/A40.9%
2–3 May CRO Demoskop 1,30018%29%5.9%4.5%3.1%3.6%2.6%N/AN/A19.9% [25] 39.8% [22]
22 Apr Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00020.9%26.9%4.8%2.8%3.4%4%2.6%16.8%17.8%22.5% [25] 33.2% [22]
15 AprFormer Croatian general Ante Gotovina is sentenced to 24 years in prison by ICTY after being found guilty of war crimes during Operation Storm. [26]
1-3 Apr CRO Demoskop 1,30018.3%29.2%5.9%5.1%3%3.1%3.2%N/AN/A21.2% [25] 40.4% [22]
24 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00017%27.8%5.5%3.1%5.1%5.3%2%15.8%18.4%18.9% [25] 40.9% [22]
20 Mar Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 15.1%26.7%5%1.3%3.1%1.5%2.2%N/A15.9%
14 Mar GFK for RTL 6006.6%30%3.3%0.6%0.4%1.5%0.4%N/A41.7%
4 Mar CRO Demoskop 1,30019.2%29.9%5.9%5.1%2.9%4%3.1%N/AN/A24.4% [25] 41.2% [22]
2 MarAnti-government protests are held across the country. The protesters burn the flags of major political parties as well as the flag of Europe and calling for an early general election. [27]
24 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00022%29%6.3%4.5%5.1%3.2%3.2%14.1%12.6%24.2% [25] 44.3% [22]
1-2 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,30021.9%31%5.6%5%3.2%3.8%3.8%N/AN/A27.8% [25] 42% [22]
25 Jan Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00022.5%33.3%5.2%4.8%4.1%4.4%N/A12.5%11.1%24.2% [28] 44.3% [18]
3-4 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,30022.6%31.2%6%5.1%3.6%3.9%4.2%N/AN/A27.9% [25] 41.2% [22]

2010

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLSOtherUndecidedHDZ coalitionSDP coalition
27 Dec Prime Minister Jadranka Kosor reshuffles the Cabinet with four ministerial changes as well as adding a new vice-presidential post. [29]
25 Dec Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00024.7%32%6.9%5.4%3.9%3.6%4.2%N/AN/A27.4% [30] 47% [18]
10 Dec Ivo Sanader is arrested in Salzburg, Austria. [31]
9 DecFormer Prime Minister and leader of HDZ Ivo Sanader flees the country after he is indicted under charges of corruption. [32] He is put on the Interpol wanted list. [33]
7 Dec Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 4,00021.2%34.3%6.8%3.8%3.7%4.4%3.7%14.2%7.9%20.5% [28] 44% [18]
30 Nov-1 Dec CRO Demoskop Archived 2010-12-06 at the Wayback Machine 1,30022.1%32.8%6.2%5.2%3.4%3.8%3.6%N/AN/A27.5% [25] 41.6% [22]
25 Nov Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00024.3%31.4%6.4%4.2%3.9%3.6%3.5%12.9%9.8%25.5% [28] 42.1% [18]
23 NovLeaders of the four main opposition parties: SDP, HNS-LD, IDS and HSU; sign a declaration in Kastav officially forming a coalition for the next parliamentary election called Alliance for Change [34]
2-3 Nov CRO Demoskop Archived 2011-04-16 at the Wayback Machine 1,30022.3%32.8%6.2%5.3%3.5%3.1%3.1%N/AN/A27.6% [17] 43.7% [17]
29 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00022%31%6.4%5.5%3.6%N/AN/A15.4%13.7%25.2% [28] 40.5% [18]
15 OctFormer Vice President of the Government Damir Polančec is sentenced to 15 months in prison for abuse of power while Minister of the Economy. A letter surfaces where Polančec accuses Prime Minister Kosor and the Vice President of Parliament Vladimir Šeks of knowing the judge's verdict over a month before it was actually sentenced. [35]
13 OctFormer Prime Minister Ivo Sanader reactivates his mandate in Parliament. [36]
4-5 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,30023%32.5%5.9%5.1%3.8%2.9%2.9%N/AN/A28.2% [17] 43% [17]
30 Sep Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00026%31.4%7.5%5.2%5.3%5.3%N/A9%10.3%25.1% [28] 41.6% [18]
1-2 Sep CRO Demoskop Archived 2011-12-24 at the Wayback Machine 1,30023.4%32.3%6%5.1%3%2.2%3.2%N/AN/A28.5% [17] 42.6% [17]
31 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 96425.7%34.1%5.6%5.9%5.5%N/A3.8%8.4%N/A25.8% [28] 42.9% [18]
1-2 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,30022.7%30.9%6.2%5.1%3.2%2.2%1.9%N/AN/A27.9%41.7%
28 Jul Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00025.8%30.8%6.5%6.1%7%4.2%3%8%N/A29.9% [28] 40.5% [18]
13-16 Jul Mediana Fides for Jutarnji list 70025.4%32.4%4.4%3.7%1.4%2.4%1.6%6.2%19.5%25% [25] 44% [22]
12 JulThe Government signs an agreement with three independents: the Croatian Social Liberal Party's two former representatives and Zlatko Horvat. This brings the governing coalition from 82 to 83 of 153 seats in parliament. [37]
11 JulThe leaders of the four main opposition parties: SDP, HNS-LD, IDS and HSU; hold a meeting in Baranja and announce their intention to form a coalition for the next general election.
10 Jul Darinko Kosor, the leader of the Croatian Social Liberal Party, announce his party's decision to leave the governing coalition.
1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,30022.5%31.5%5.9%5.1%3.1%2.5%1.7%N/AN/A
30 Jun Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00024.5%34.7%6.6%6.5%3.9%4%N/AN/AN/A30.7%44.7%
24 JunLabour Unions announce they have collected the necessary number of signatures to trigger a binding referendum against the new labour bill proposed by the Government.
1-2 Jun CRO Demoskop 1,30023.9%30.5%6.1%5%3%2.6%1.7%N/AN/A
31 May Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00028%30%8.4%6.1%3.9%4.1%N/A18.7%N/A33% [25] 42% [22]
3–4 May CRO Demoskop 1,30023.4%30.8%6%4.9%2.8%2.5%1.6%N/AN/A
30 Apr Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 96229.7%30.4%8.4%4.8%5.1%N/AN/A11%10%36.4%39.8%
31 Mar-1 April CRO Demoskop 1,30024.3%31%5.9%5.1%3%2.8%N/AN/AN/A
30 MarFormer Vice President of the Government of Croatia Damir Polančec, the Minister of the Economy in the Sanader II and, until his resignation, the current Kosor cabinet is arrested under charges of corruption during his tenure as a member of government.
25 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ?27.7%33%6.9%5.4%4.4%4.1%N/A7.5%11%
4 Mar CRO Demoskop Archived 2011-12-29 at the Wayback Machine 1,30024%32.2%5.9%5.3%2.7%1.9%2.2%N/AN/A
27 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ?30.2%33.4%7.7%5.1%4.2%3.4%2.8%4.9%N/A37.9% [25] 42% [22]
3 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,30024%32.6%6.5%5.1%2.5%1.7%2%N/AN/A
29 Jan Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00027.6%34%8.3%5.9%5.7%2.7%2%N/AN/A32.9% [38] 45.2% [39]
10 JanSDP presidential candidate Ivo Josipović is elected the third President of the Republic.
4-5 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,30023.5%33%6.2%4.7%2.8%N/AN/AN/AN/A
3 JanFormer Prime Minister Ivo Sanader issues a press conference attacking Jadranka Kosor, Andrija Hebrang and most of the HDZ party leaders for their 'failed leadership', announcing his return. He is expelled from the party the day after.

2009

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLSOtherUndecided
31 Dec Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ?27%33%7.8%5.5%4.9%N/AN/A12.2%9.6%
30 Nov-1 Dec CRO Demoskop 1,30024.2%31%6.8%5.2%3.3%2.2%2%9%18.5%
30 Nov Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ?26.3%32%7.3%5.2%5.5%3.8%N/A7.5%12.4%
4 Nov CRO Demoskop 1,30024.6%30.8%6.5%4.5%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
31 Oct Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ?27.1%31.7%7.5%7.3%5.3%N/AN/AN/AN/A
30 OctDamir Polančec, member of the HDZ Presidency, resigns as Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of the Economy following allegations of corruption.
31 Sep-1 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,30024.1%30.2%7.1%5.2%3.8%2.2%1.3%7.1%21.2%
3 Sep CRO Demoskop 1,30021.9%30.5%6.9%5.1%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
1 Aug Ipsos Puls for Nova TV ?23.3%34.8%7.6%5.5%6.9%3.1%N/A8.3%10%
1-2 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,30023.7%28.4%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
1 JulPrime Minister Ivo Sanader resigns giving no specific reason. Jadranka Kosor becomes the new Prime Minister.
6 May CRO Demoskop 1,30025.3%28.9%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
31 Mar Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00030%29.5%7.4%7.6%4.1%3.6%N/A8.3%9.5%
5 Mar CRO Demoskop 1,30023%29.5%5.3%5%3.1%3.4%N/AN/AN/A
28 Feb Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,00029.3%29%8.1%8%4.8%N/AN/A8.8%12%
5 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,30025%28.3%5.6%5.1%3.3%3.1%1.3%N/AN/A

2008

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLSOtherUndecided
3-4 Oct CRO Demoskop 1,30027.7%29.2%5.3%5%2.2%4.2%1.3%6.7%N/A
31 Jul-1 Aug CRO Demoskop 1,30031.8%31.3%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
4 Jul CRO Demoskop 1,30032.9%31.9%5.4%5.2%N/AN/AN/AN/AN/A
2 May CRO Demoskop 1,30033.7%31.5%5.4%5.2%N/A1.8%N/AN/AN/A
4 Feb CRO Demoskop 1,30035.6%33.8%5.4%4.1%3%N/AN/AN/AN/A
11 JanThe sixth assembly of Parliament is constituted.
7 Jan CRO Demoskop 1,30034.7%33.1%5.3%4.1%3.8%3.5%1.6%N/AN/A

2007

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HSU HSP HSLSOtherUndecided
25 Nov 2007 parliamentary election 2,429,078 36.6%31.2%6.8%6.5%*4.1%*3.5%6.5%*10.7%N/A

*HSS and HSLS contested the election together, with HSS being the senior partner. HSU contested the election with another smaller party.

Seat projections

The seat projections do not include:

The new composition of Parliament will have 151 seats meaning that 76 seats will be needed for a majority.

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

Coalition rating

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample sizeHDZ-HSS-DC SDP-HNS-IDS-HSU Other
7 December 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 2,619418514
25 November 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000498011

Party rating

The listed poll dates are either the dates when the poll was conducted, or alternatively the date when the poll result was published.

DatePolling Organisation/ClientSample size HDZ SDP HNS-LD HSS HDSSB IDS HSU HSP HSLSOther
7 Dec 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 4,000426994422422
25 Nov 2010 Ipsos Puls for Nova TV 1,000506882341112

References

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  2. "HRT: Naslovnica".
  3. "Kukuriku koalicija premoćno osvaja izbore! — RTL Televizija". Archived from the original on 2011-12-06. Retrieved 2011-12-04.
  4. 1 2 3 "Na izborima se natječu 4382 kandidata, opet pretežu muškarci". Vjesnik (in Croatian). 2011-11-17. Archived from the original on 19 November 2011. Retrieved 2011-12-02.
  5. "Kosor i Kerum u koaliciji: Zašto smo potpisali sporazum? Želimo okupiti sve koji misle HRVATSKI!" (in Croatian). 2011-11-08. Retrieved 2011-12-18.
  6. "Josipović raspisao izbore" [Josipović calls election] (in Croatian). Nacional (weekly). 31 October 2011. Archived from the original on 2012-09-09. Retrieved 1 July 2012.
  7. Pogledajte sve snimke sa suđenja Sanaderu, Nova TV
  8. Ovo su bili najzanimljiviji trenuci u Saboru!, Nova TV
  9. J. Kosor: Neću dati ostavku i nećemo dopustiti da se HDZ uruši, Večernji list
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  11. Ljubo Jurčić, SU i PGS zajedno na izbore Archived 2012-05-27 at the Wayback Machine , Nova TV, 2011-10-06, accessed 2011-11-26
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  13. Sanader mora vratiti 10 milijuna eura
  14. KOSOR 'ZAPALILA' HDZ-OVCE U ARENI: 'Ovih dana nas blate kao Tuđmana 90-ih', tportal.hr
  15. Pogledajte što je Milanović obećao Hrvatskoj, tportal.hr
  16. Iskopana tajna: HDZ s prljavih 13 milijuna kuna financirao Jadranku Kosor, ali i Houdeka, Škoru, Kindl..., Jutarnji list
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Sum of "known electoral blocs"
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 SDP-HNS-IDS-HSU
  19. Possible HDZ-DC coalition given 20.5% support
  20. Potential coalition of HSP/HČSP/A-HSP given 3.6%
  21. Possible HDZ coalition given 25.3% support
  22. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Lijevi blok (left-wing bloc) or Lijeva koalicija (left-wing coalition) or Savez za promjene (Alliance for Change)
  23. Ugovor Kukuriku koalicije - S HDZ-om nitko neće ni u slučaju izbornog poraza!, tportal.hr, 2011-07-23, accessed 2011-11-26
  24. Sandra Bartolović (25 October 2011). "Tanka pobjeda Milanovića, potop HDZ-a" [Narrow victory for Milanović, disaster for HDZ] (in Croatian). Nacional (weekly). Archived from the original on 27 December 2011. Retrieved 1 July 2012.
  25. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Desni blok (right-wing bloc) or Vladajuća koalicija (governing coalition)
  26. HAŠKA PRESUDA: Gotovina je izgledao mirno, a u njemu je ključalo. Čeljust mu se tresla, Jutarnji list
  27. Rastrgali zastavu HDZ-a, zapalili SDP-ovu i EU-a Archived 2011-08-17 at the Wayback Machine , Novi list
  28. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 HDZ-HSS-DC
  29. Premijerka Kosor pokazala tko su ljudi na koje računa u HDZ-u i vlasti, Jutarnji list
  30. HDZ-HSS
  31. Croatian ex-PM Ivo Sanader arrested in Austria, BBC News
  32. Sanader u bijegu: Preko granice ga odvezla kći, on čitao novine, Večernji list
  33. Wanted: SANADER, Ivo, Interpol
  34. Počelo je rušenje HDZ-a: Vlada lijevog centra predstavila Deklaraciju "Savez za promjene", Index.hr
  35. Polancec releases statement on meetings with HDZ leaders Archived 2011-10-02 at the Wayback Machine , tportal.hr
  36. Sanader se vraća u Sabor i dobiva zastupnički imunitet Archived 2011-12-29 at the Wayback Machine , Net.hr
  37. Prije izlaska HSLS-a imali 82, a sada imaju 83 ruke u Saboru!, Jutarnji List
  38. HDZ-HSS-HSLS
  39. SDP-HNS-IDS