Opinion polling for the 2016 Australian federal election

Last updated

Several research and polling firms conducted polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the 2016 Australian federal election on 2 July in relation to voting intention for the Australian House of Representatives (lower house) and leader ratings. Most firms use the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate their second preference before applying the preference flows at the previous election.

Contents

Every federal election after 1961 has been won by the grouping that also won the majority of federal seats in New South Wales. Unusually, in the upcoming election nearly half of all marginal government seats are in NSW; of these, nearly half are in Western Sydney and half are in rural and regional areas. No more than a few government seats in each other state are marginal.

Assuming a theoretical uniform swing, for the Labor opposition to get to 76 seats and majority government would require at least 50.5 percent of the two-party vote (a 4.0-point two-party swing or greater), while for the incumbent Coalition to lose majority government would require 50.2 percent of the two-party vote (a 3.3-point two-party swing or greater). [1]

Graphical aggregate of national voting intention polling

Australian election polling - two party preferred.png
Two-party-preferred vote.
Australian election polling - primary vote.png
Primary vote.
Graphs are a compilation of aggregate data from voting intention in the below list of all opinion polling for the 2016 federal election. A moving average is shown in a solid line.

Federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state

The table below published by The Poll Bludger sets out the final release of federal two-party-preferred polling aggregates by state/territory (and swings since the previous election).

Two-party-preferred % polling aggregates by state
State (seats)L/NP 2PPALP 2PPL/NP swing
New South Wales (47)51.348.7–3.1
Victoria (37)47.652.4–2.2
Queensland (30)52.747.3–4.3
Western Australia (16)54.245.8–4.1
South Australia (11)53.846.2+1.4
Tasmania (5)47.352.7–1.4
ACT & NT (4)40.459.6–2.7
Australia (150)50.949.1–2.6

Source: BludgerTrack 1 Jul 2016: Poll Bludger – Methodology – State 2PP history

National polling

Voting intention

DateFirm Primary vote 2PP vote Sample sizeMargin of errorMethod
L/NP ALP GRN OTH L/NP ALP
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016Newspoll [2] 42%35%10%13%50.5%49.5%4,135?Landline
30 Jun 2016ReachTEL [3] 42.8%34.6%10.7%12%51%49%2,084?Telephone (random)
27–30 Jun 2016Essential [4] 42.5%34.5%11.5%12%50.5%49.5%1,212±3Online (members)
28–29 Jun 2016Galaxy [5] 43%36%10%11%51%49%1,768?Landline
26–29 Jun 2016Ipsos [6] 40%33%13%14%50%50%1,377 ?Telephone (random)
23–26 Jun 2016Essential [7] 39%37%10%14%49%51%1,773±3Online (members)
23–26 Jun 2016Newspoll [8] 43%36%9%12%51%49%1,713±3Landline
23 Jun 2016ReachTEL [9] 42.3%33.7%10.5%13.3%51%49%2,349?Telephone (random)
20–22 Jun 2016Galaxy [10] [11] 42%35%11%12%50%50%??Landline
16–19 Jun 2016Essential [12] 40%37%10%13%49%51%1,013±3Online (members)
16–19 Jun 2016Newspoll [13] 41%36%10%13%50%50%1,805±3Landline
16 Jun 2016ReachTEL [14] 43.5%33.6%9.1%13.7%51%49%2,576 ?Telephone (random)
14–16 Jun 2016Ipsos [15] 39%33%14%14%49%51%1,437 ?Telephone (random)
9–12 Jun 2016Essential [16] 41%37%10%12%49%51%1,784±3Online (members)
9 Jun 2016ReachTEL [17] 42.7%33.2%9.9%14.3%50%50%2,175 ?Telephone (random)
2–5 Jun 2016Essential [18] 41%36%10%13%50%50%1,772±3Online (members)
2–5 Jun 2016Newspoll [19] 40%35%10%15%50%50%1,867±3Landline
2 Jun 2016ReachTEL [20] 41.5%34.9%10.1%13.5%50%50%2,414 ?Telephone (random)
31 May – 2 Jun 2016Ipsos [21] 42%36%13%9%49%51%1,359±2.7Telephone (random)
26–29 May 2016Essential [22] 41%35%9%15%51%49%1,767±3Online (members)
21–22, 28–29 May 2016Morgan [23] 37.5%32.5%13%17%49%51%3,099±1In person and SMS
26 May 2016ReachTEL [24] 41.1%36.5%9.6%12.8%48%52%2,700 ?Telephone (random)
19–22 May 2016Essential [25] 41%37%9%13%49%51%1,794±3Online (members)
19–22 May 2016Newspoll [26] 41%36%11%12%49%51% ?±3Landline
19 May 2016ReachTEL [27] 42.6%36.6%9.9%10.9%50%50%2,407 ?Telephone (random)
17–19 May 2016Ipsos [28] 43%34%14%9%51%49%1,497±2.5Telephone (random)
14–15 May 2016Morgan [29] 36.5%33%15.5%15%47.5%52.5%2,318±1In person and SMS
12–15 May 2016Essential [30] 42%38%9%11%49%51%1,784±3Online (members)
6–8 May 2016Lonergan [31] 42%35%12%10%50%50%1,841 ?Landline and mobile
5–8 May 2016Essential [32] 42%38%10%10%49%51%1,754±3Online (members)
9 May 20162016 Federal Election campaign begins
5–8 May 2016Newspoll [33] 41%37%11%11%49%51% ?±3Landline
5–7 May 2016Ipsos [33] 44%33%14%9%51%49%1,410±2.6Telephone (random)
4–6 May 2016Galaxy [34] 42%36%11%11%50%50%1,739±2.5 ?
5 May 2016ReachTEL [35] 43.2%35.1%9.5%12.2%50%50%2,450 ?Telephone (random)
27 Apr – 1 May 2016Essential [36] 40%38%10%12%48%52%1,753±3Online (members)
23–24, 30 Apr – 1 May 2016Morgan [37] 40%32.5%13.5%14%49%51%2,951±1In person and SMS
20–24 Apr 2016Essential [38] 40%39%10%11%48%52%1,740±3Online (members)
14–17 Apr 2016Newspoll [39] 41%36%11%12%49%51% ?±3Landline
13–17 Apr 2016Essential [40] 42%36%11%11%50%50%1,753±3Online (members)
9–10, 16–17 Apr 2016Morgan [41] 40.5%32%14%13.5%50%50%3,083±1In person and SMS
14–16 Apr 2016Ipsos [42] 42%33%14%11%50%50%1,402±2.6Telephone (random)
14 Apr 2016ReachTEL [43] 43.5%35.8%9.8%10.9%50%50%2,415 ?Telephone (random)
6–10 Apr 2016Essential [44] 42%35%11%12%50%50%1,792±3Online (members)
31 Mar – 3 Apr 2016Newspoll [45] 41%36%11%12%49%51% ?±3Landline
26–27 Mar, 2–3 Apr 2016Morgan [46] 42%31%13%14%52.5%47.5%3,174±1In person and SMS
21 Mar 2016ReachTEL [47] 46.6%34.4%10.5%8.6%52%48%3,274 ?Telephone (random)
17–20 Mar 2016Newspoll [48] 43%34%12%11%51%49% ?±3%Landline
16–20 Mar 2016Essential [49] 43%38%10%9%50%50%1,790±3Online (members)
12–13, 19–20 Mar 2016Morgan [50] 40%33%14%13%49.5%50.5%2,948±1In person and SMS
10–12 Mar 2016Ipsos [51] 45%31%14%10%53%47%
3–6 Mar 2016Newspoll [52] 43%35%12%10%50%50%
2–6 Mar 2016Essential [53] 43%37%10%10%50%50%
27–28 Feb, 5–6 Mar 2016Morgan [54] 43%29.5%13%14.5%53%47%
24–28 Feb 2016Essential [55] 43%38%10%9%50%50%
18–21 Feb 2016Newspoll [56] 43%35%12%10%50%50%
17–21 Feb 2016Essential [57] 44%35%10%11%52%48%
13–14, 20–21 Feb 2016Morgan [58] 43.5%29.5%15%12%52.5%47.5%
11–13 Feb 2016Ipsos [59] 44%32%15%10%52%48%
11 Feb 2016ReachTEL [60] 48.1%32.8%10.1%9%54%46%
3–7 Feb 2016Essential [61] 44%35%10%10%52%48%
30–31 Jan, 6–7 Feb 2016Morgan [62] 43.5%29%16%11.5%52.5%47.5%
28–31 Jan 2016Newspoll [63] 46%34%11%9%53%47%
16–17, 23–24 Jan 2016Morgan [64] 43.5%28%15%13.5%55%45%
21 Jan 2016ReachTEL [65] 48.5%31.8%10.8%9.1%55%45%
15–18 Jan 2016Essential [66] 44%35%10%12%51%49%
2–3, 9–10 Jan 2016Morgan [67] 47%29%13%11%56%44%
15 Dec 2015Essential [68] 45%35%10%10%52%48%
5–6, 12–13 Dec 2015Morgan [69] 48%27%14.5%10.5%57.5%42.5%
8 Dec 2015Essential [70] 44%36%11%10%51%49%
4–6 Dec 2015Newspoll [71] 45%33%12%10%53%47%
1 Dec 2015Essential [72] 44%35%11%10%51%49%
21–22, 28–29 Nov 2015Morgan [73] 46.5%28.5%14%11%56%44%
26 Nov 2015ReachTEL [74] 48.8%31.1%11.2%8.9%55%45%
24 Nov 2015Essential [75] 45%35%10%10%52%48%
19–22 Nov 2015Newspoll [76] 46%33%11%10%53%47%
7–8, 14–15 Nov 2015Morgan [77] 46%28%14.5%11.5%56%44%
12–14 Nov 2015Ipsos [78] [note 1] 48%29%13%10%57%43%
10 Nov 2015Essential [79] 45%35%10%11%52%48%
6–8 Nov 2015Newspoll [80] 46%34%10%10%53%47%
3 Nov 2015Essential45%34%11%10%53%47%
24–25 Oct, 1 Nov 2015Morgan [81] 47%28.5%14.5%10%56.5%43.5%
27 Oct 2015Essential [82] 45%35%11%9%52%48%
23–25 Oct 2015Newspoll [83] 45%35%11%9%52%48%
22 Oct 2015ReachTEL [84] 46.7%33.0%11.3%9.1%53%47%
20 Oct 2015Essential [85] 44%36%11%9%51%49%
10–11, 17–18 Oct 2015Morgan [86] 46.5%27.5%15.5%10.5%56%44%
15–17 Oct 2015Ipsos [87] 45%30%14%10%54%46%
13 Oct 2015Essential [88] 44%36%10%10%51%49%
9–11 Oct 2015Newspoll [89] 43%35%12%10%50%50%
26–27 Sep, 1–5 Oct 2015Morgan [90] 47%27.5%14%11.5%56%44%
1–4 Oct 2015Essential [91] 44%35%10%10%52%48%
24–28 Sep 2015Essential44%35%11%11%52%48%
17–21 Sep 2015Essential [92] 43%37%11%9%50%50%
19–20 Sep 2015Morgan [93] 46%29.5%13%11.5%55%45%
17–20 Sep 2015Newspoll [94] 44%35%11%10%51%49%
15–16 Sep 2015Galaxy [95] 44%36%11%9%51%49%
15 Sep 2015ReachTEL [96] [note 2] 43.3%35.9%11.9%8.9%50%50%
14 Sep 2015Turnbull replaces Abbott as Liberal leader
12–13 Sep 2015Morgan [97] 35%36.5%16%12.5%43%57%
5–6 Sep 2015Morgan [98] 36.5%35.5%16.5%11.5%45%55%
4–6 Sep 2015Newspoll [99] 39%39%12%10%46%54%
26–30 Aug 2015Essential [100] 40%38%11%12%48%52%
27 Aug 2015ReachTEL [101] 40.3%37.5%13.4%8.9%47%53%
22–23 Aug 2015Morgan [102] 38.5%36%14%11.5%45.5%54.5%
20–23 Aug 2015Newspoll [103] 38%39%13%10%46%54%
13–15 Aug 2015Ipsos [104] 38%36%16%11%44%56%
11–14 Aug 2015Essential41%38%10%11%48%52%
8–9 Aug 2015Morgan [105] 36.5%37%15.5%11%43%57%
8–9 Aug 2015Newspoll [106] 39%39%13%9%46%54%
4–7 Aug 2015Essential40%39%11%9%47%53%
6 Aug 2015ReachTel [107] 40.2%38.3%12.8%8.7%47%53%
28–31 Jul 2015Essential [108] 39%38%12%10%47%53%
30 Jul 2015ReachTel [109] 40.6%38%12.9%8.6%47%53%
25–26 Jul 2015Morgan [110] 39%35.5%15%10.5%46%54%
16–19 Jul 2015Newspoll [111] 40%39%12%9%47%53%
14–17 Jul 2015Essential41%38%11%11%48%52%
11–12 Jul 2015Morgan [112] 41.5%34.5%13.5%10.5%49%51%
4–5 Jul 2015Newspoll [113] 40%37%13%10%48%52%
2–4 Jul 2015Ipsos [114] 39%35%16%10%47%53%
27–28 Jun 2015Morgan [115] 39%36%14%11%46.5%53.5%
16 Jun 2015Newspoll [116] 40%34%14%12%49%51%
16 Jun 2015Essential42%39%10%9%48%52%
13–14 Jun 2015Morgan [117] 37.5%37.5%13.5%11.5%45.5%54.5%
11–13 Jun 2015Ipsos [118] 40%37%14%10%47%53%
11–13 Jun 2015Essential41%40%9%10%48%52%
2 Jun 2015Newspoll [119] 41%37%13%9%48%52%
2 Jun 2015Essential [120] 41%37%13%9%48%52%
23–24, 30–31 May 2015Morgan [121] 41%37%13%9%47%53%
26 May 2015Essential [120] 41%39%10%9%48%52%
18 May 2015Morgan [122] 41.5%35.5%12.5%10.5%49%51%
17 May 2015Ipsos [123] 43%35%13%9%50%50%
17 May 2015Newspoll [124] 40%37%12%11%47%53%
13 May 2015ReachTel [125] 41.1%38.3%12.1%8.6%47%53%
7–10 May 2015Essential [126] 41%39%11%10%48%52%
6 May 2015Di Natale replaces Milne as Greens leader
4 May 2015Newspoll [127] 39%35%12%14%48%52%
4 May 2015Morgan [128] 40%37.5%11.5%11%46.5%53.5%
28 Apr 2015Essential40%39%10%11%47%53%
21 Apr 2015Essential41%39%11%10%48%52%
11–12, 18–19 Apr 2015Morgan [129] 38.5%38%12%11%47%53%
14 Apr 2015Essential41%39%10%11%48%52%
10–12 Apr 2015Newspoll [130] 41%36%11%12%49%51%
9–11 Apr 2015Ipsos [131] 39%38%13%9%46%54%
28–29 Mar, 3–6 Apr 2015Morgan [132] 40.5%36%12.5%11%47%53%
29 Mar 2015ReachTEL [133] 39.6%40.5%11.5%8.5%46%54%
20–22 Mar 2015Newspoll [134] 41%37%11%11%49%51%
14–15, 21–22 Mar 2015Morgan [135] 38%40%11%11%44%56%
17 Mar 2015Essential40%39%9%11%48%52%
10 Mar 2015Essential [136] 40%40%9%11%47%53%
7–8 Mar 2015Newspoll [137] 38%39%12%11%45%55%
28 Feb–1, 7–8 Mar 2015Morgan [138] 39%38%12.5%11.5%46.5%53.5%
26–28 Feb 2015Ipsos42%36%12%10%49%51%
20–22 Feb 2015Essential40%41%9%10%47%53%
20–22 Feb 2015Newspoll38%38%12%12%47%53%
6–8 Feb 2015Newspoll35%41%12%12%43%57%
31 Jan–1, 7–8 Feb 2015Morgan35%41%12%12%42.5%57.5%
5 Feb 2015ReachTEL38.4%41.4%11.2%8.9%45%55%
4–5 Feb 2015Galaxy36%43%11%10%43%57%
28–30 Jan 2015Galaxy36%43%11%10%43%57%
27 Jan 2015ReachTEL39.7%40.2%11.3%8.8%46%54%
27 Jan 2015Essential39%41%9%11%46%54%
20 Jan 2015Essential40%40%10%11%47%53%
13 Jan 2015Essential38%40%10%11%46%54%
12 Jan 2015Morgan38.5%38.5%9.5%13.5%45.5%54.5%
23–27 Dec 2014Morgan37.5%39.5%12%11%43.5%56.5%
16 Dec 2014Essential40%38%10%12%48%52%
12–15 Dec 2014Newspoll38%39%12%11%46%54%
6–7, 13–14 Dec 2014Morgan35%41%11.5%12.5%42.5%57.5%
4–6 Dec 2014Ipsos40%37%12%11%48%52%
2–4 Dec 2014Galaxy38%41%11%10%45%55%
2 Dec 2014Essential40%40%9%11%47%53%
29–30 Nov 2014Newspoll37%37%13%13%46%54%
22–23, 29–30 Nov 2014Morgan37%37.5%12%11.5%46.5%53.5%
25 Nov 2014Essential40%39%10%11%48%52%
21 Nov 2014ReachTEL40.2%38.7%11.1%9.9%47%53%
18 Nov 2014Newspoll36%39%11%14%45%55%
17 Nov 2014Essential40%38%10%12%48%52%
17 Nov 2014Morgan38%38.5%12%11.5%44.5%55.5%
11 Nov 2014Essential40%38%10%13%48%52%
4 Nov 2014Newspoll38%36%13%13%46%54%
4 Nov 2014Essential40%38%10%12%48%52%
25–26 Oct, 1–2 Nov 2014Morgan38.5%37.5%12.5%11.5%45.5%54.5%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014Ipsos42%37%12%10%49%51%
28 Oct 2014Essential39%39%9%12%47%53%
23 Oct 2014ReachTEL40.1%37.5%11.5%10.9%48%52%
21 Oct 2014Essential40%39%10%11%47%53%
21 Oct 2014Newspoll38%34%14%14%47%53%
20 Oct 2014Morgan39.5%35.5%12%13%48%52%
14 Oct 2014Essential41%39%10%10%48%52%
7 Oct 2014Essential40%39%10%11%48%52%
4–5 Oct 2014Morgan40%35%12%13%47%53%
4–5 Oct 2014Galaxy42%36%12%10%49%51%
23 Sep 2014Newspoll41%34%11%14%49%51%
13–14, 20–21 Sep 2014Morgan38.5%37.5%12%12%45.5%54.5%
18 Sep 2014ReachTEL41.6%37.4%10.5%10.5%49%51%
30–31 Aug, 6–7 Sep 2014Morgan38%37%10.5%14.5%46%54%
5–7 Sep 2014Newspoll39%35%14%12%48%52%
22–24 Aug 2014Newspoll40%34%11%15%49%51%
16–17, 23–24 Aug 2014Morgan37.5%38.5%10.5%13.5%44.5%55.5%
19 Aug 2014Essential40%38%9%13%48%52%
9–10 Aug 2014Morgan37.5%38%11%13.5%44%56%
8–10 Aug 2014Newspoll40%34%13%13%48%52%
25–27 Jul 2014Newspoll36%36%12%16%46%54%
11–13 Jul 2014Newspoll36%37%11%16%46%54%
1 Jul 2014Essential [139] 40%38%9%13%48%52%
30 Jun 2014Morgan [140] 35%36.5%12%16.5%42.5%57.5%
27–29 Jun 2014Newspoll35%37%13%15%45%55%
13–15 Jun 2014Newspoll37%36%10%17%47%53%
30 May–1 Jun 2014Newspoll36%37%12%15%46%54%
27 May 2014Essential [141] 40%39%9%12%48%52%
20 May 2014Essential [142] 40%40%8%12%48%52%
17–18 May 2014Morgan [143] 35%38.5%12%14.5%42.5%57.5%
16–18 May 2014Newspoll36%38%11%15%45%55%
15–17 May 2014Nielsen [144] 35%40%14%12%44%56%
4 May 2014Galaxy [145] 39%37%11%13%48%52%
2–4 May 2014Newspoll [146] 38%34%14%14%47%53%
30 Apr 2014Essential [141] 40%38%10%11%48%52%
22 Apr 2014Morgan [147] 38.5%34%13%14.5%48%52%
15 Apr 2014Essential [148] 42%37%10%11%50%50%
13 Apr 2014Nielsen [149] 40%34%17%9%48%52%
8 Apr 2014Essential [150] 42%38%9%11%49%51%
7 Apr 2014Morgan [151] 38.5%34.5%12%15%48.5%51.5%
4–6 Apr 2014Newspoll [152] 43%34%11%12%51%49%
25 Mar 2014Morgan [153] 38%38.5%11%12.5%45.5%54.5%
25 Mar 2014Essential [154] 44%37%9%11%51%49%
21–23 Mar 2014Newspoll [155] 40%36%13%11%48%52%
18 Mar 2014Essential [156] 43%36%9%12%51%49%
13–15 Mar 2014Nielsen [157] 44%35%12%10%51%49%
7–9 Mar 2014Newspoll41%35%11%13%49%51%
5 Mar 2014Essential [158] 44%38%8%10%51%49%
23 Feb 2014Morgan [159] 41%35.5%10.5%13%49.5%50.5%
21–23 Feb 2014Newspoll [160] 39%39%10%12%46%54%
15 Feb 2014Nielsen [161] 44%33%12%11%52%48%
7–9 Feb 2014Newspoll [162] 41%35%12%12%49%51%
28 Jan 2014Morgan [163] 39.5%37%11.5%12%47%53%
23 Jan 2014ReachTEL39.8%40.6%9.1%9.1%47%53%
17–20 Jan 2014Essential [164] 43%37%9%11%51%49%
13 Jan 2014Morgan [165] 38%39%10.5%12.5%47.5%52.5%
16 Dec 2013Morgan [166] 40.5%38.5%10%11%47.5%52.5%
15 Dec 2013ReachTEL41.4%40.4%8.7%9.5%48%52%
6–8 Dec 2013Newspoll40%38%11%11%48%52%
28 Nov–2 Dec 2013Essential [167] 44%36%8%11%52%48%
30 Nov–1 Dec 2013Morgan (multi) [168] 41.5%38.5%8.5%12.5%48.5%51.5%
22–24 Nov 2013Newspoll43%35%10%12%52%48%
21–23 Nov 2013Nielsen [169] 41%37%11%11%48%52%
8–10 Nov 2013Newspoll45%32%12%11%53%47%
25–27 Oct 2013Newspoll47%31%10%12%56%44%
19–20 Oct 2013Morgan [170] 43.5%34.5%10%12%51.5%48.5%
13 Oct 2013Shorten replaces Rudd as Labor leader
21–22 Sep 2013Morgan [171] 43.5%34%10.5%12%50.5%49.5%
19–22 Sep 2013Essential [172] 43%37%9%11%51%49%
12–15 Sep 2013Essential [172] 44%36%9%11%53%47%
7 Sep 2013 2013 election 45.6%33.4%8.7%12.3%53.5%46.5%
4–6 Sep 2013Morgan (multi)45%31.5%9.5%14%54.5%44.5%
5 Sep 2013ReachTEL [173] 43.5%33.7%10.2%12.6%53%47%
3–5 Sep 2013Newspoll46%33%9%12%54%46%

Preferred prime minister and satisfaction

DateFirmPreferred prime ministerSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
TurnbullShortenTurnbullShorten
28 Jun – 1 Jul 2016Newspoll [2] 48%31%40%47%36%51%
30 Jun 2016ReachTEL [3] 52.9%47.1%
26–29 Jun 2016Ipsos [6] 49%35%49%41%42%50%
23–26 Jun 2016Essential [7] 40%29%40%40%37%39%
23–26 Jun 2016Newspoll [8] 45%30%37%51%35%50%
23 Jun 2016ReachTEL [9] 58.4%41.6%
16–19 Jun 2016Newspoll [13] 46%31%36%51%35%51%
16 Jun 2016ReachTEL [14] 57.6%42.4%
14–16 Jun 2016Ipsos [15] 48%34%47%42%43%47%
9–12 Jun 2016Essential [16] 40%29%38%40%34%40%
9 Jun 2016ReachTEL [17] 55.4%44.6%
2–5 Jun 2016Newspoll [19] 45%30%37%51%33%52%
2 Jun 2016ReachTEL [20] 55.6%44.4%
31 May – 2 Jun 2016Ipsos [21] 49%31%45%42%41%47%
26–29 May 2016Essential [22] 40%27%41%39%34%44%
26 May 2016ReachTEL [24] 54.9%45.1%
19–22 May 2016Newspoll [26] 46%31%38%50%37%49%
19 May 2016ReachTEL [27] 55.6%44.4%
17–19 May 2016Ipsos [28] 47%30%48%38%40%46%
12–15 May 2016Essential [30] 43%28%40%42%34%43%
5–8 May 2016Newspoll [33] 49%27%38%49%33%52%
5–7 May 2016Ipsos [33] 51%29%48%40%38%49%
5 May 2016ReachTEL [35] 57.7%42.3%
4–5 May 2016Morgan57%24%43%41%34%49%
14–17 Apr 2016Newspoll [39] 47%28%36%49%31%52%
14–16 Apr 2016Ipsos [42] 54%27%51%38%33%55%
14 Apr 2016ReachTEL [43] 58.4%41.6%
Apr 2016Essential [44] 44%22%39%39%30%44%
31 Mar–3 Apr 2016Newspoll [45] 48%27%38%48%32%53%
Mar 2016Essential [44] 48%19%45%35%27%47%
21 Mar 2016ReachTEL [35] 60.0%40.0%
10–12 Mar 2016Ipsos [51] 61%24%55%32%33%52%
3–6 Mar 2016Newspoll [52] 55%21%44%41%30%55%
Feb 2016Essential [61] 52%15%51%27%27%48%
18–21 Feb 2016Newspoll [56] 55%21%48%38%28%57%
11–13 Feb 2016Ipsos [59] 64%19%62%24%30%55%
11 Feb 2016ReachTEL [60] 74.9%25.1%
Jan 2016Essential [61] 51%18%51%25%27%47%
28–31 Jan 2016Newspoll [63] 59%20%53%31%25%60%
Dec 2015Essential [61] 54%15%56%23%27%47%
4–6 Dec 2015Newspoll [71] 60%14%52%30%23%61%
Nov 2015Essential [79] 55%14%56%20%27%47%
26 Nov 2015ReachTEL [74] 71.4%28.6%
19–22 Nov 2015Newspoll [76] 64%15%60%22%26%57%
12–14 Nov 2015Ipsos [78] 69%18%69%16%29%57%
6–8 Nov 2015Newspoll [80] 55%14%56%20%27%47%
Oct 2015Essential48%19%47%17%30%42%
23–25 Oct 2015Newspoll [174] 63%17%58%23%26%58%
20–22 Oct 2015Morgan [175] 76%14%66%18%25%62%
15–17 Oct 2015Ipsos [87] 67%21%68%17%32%56%
9–11 Oct 2015Newspoll57%19%50%25%28%53%
Sep 2015Essential53%17%N/AN/A29%50%
17–20 Sep 2015Newspoll55%21%42%24%29%54%
15–16 Sep 2015Galaxy [95] 51%20%
15 Sep 2015ReachTEL [96] 61.9%38.1%
15 Sep 2015Morgan70%24%
AbbottShortenAbbottShorten
4–6 Sep 2015Newspoll37%41%30%63%30%58%
27 Aug 2015ReachTEL [101] 42.1%57.9%
20–23 Aug 2015Newspoll [103] 35%40%30%63%34%52%
13–15 Aug 2015Ipsos39%45%35%59%39%49%
11 Aug 2015Essential36%32%38%53%29%52%
9 Aug 2015Newspoll39%39%33%61%29%57%
6 Aug 2015ReachTEL41.5%58.5%
31 Jul 2015ReachTEL44.9%55.1%
16–19 Jul 2015Newspoll [111] 39%36%33%60%27%59%
7 Jul 2015Essential37%30%37%53%27%52%
6 Jul 2015Newspoll39%39%33%60%28%56%
11–13 Jun 2015Newspoll [116] 41%38%34%56%28%54%
11–13 Jun 2015Ipsos [118] 41%42%
2 Jun 2015Essential38%33%39%50%32%45%
2 Jun 2015Newspoll [119] 41%37%38%53%32%50%
17 May 2015Ipsos [123] 44%39%42%50%41%45%
17 May 2015Newspoll [124] 41%40%39%52%35%46%
12 Apr 2015Essential35%32%36%54%32%41%
5 Apr 2015Newspoll [127] 38%38%37%56%34%50%
27 Apr 2015Morgan44%39%37%53%34%48%
14 Apr 2015Essential33%35%33%58%33%42%
10–12 Apr 2015Newspoll [130] 40%41%33%59%33%51%
9–11 Apr 2015Ipsos [131] 38%46%34%60%42%44%
20–22 Mar 2015Newspoll [134] 36%41%29%61%36%47%
7–8 Mar 2015Newspoll [137] 33%44%28%63%39%42%
26–28 Feb 2015Ipsos39%44%32%62%43%43%
20–22 Feb 2015Newspoll35%43%25%68%35%49%
6–8 Feb 2015Newspoll30%48%24%68%42%40%
1 Feb 2015Galaxy27%44%
28–30 Jan 2015Galaxy27%44%
14 Jan 2015Morgan41%43%37%52%37%40%
13 Jan 2015Essential35%37%37%53%39%33%
28–30 Nov 2014Newspoll37%44%33%58%37%43%
4–6 Dec 2014Ipsos39%47%
28–30 Nov 2014Newspoll36%43%33%57%39%43%
18 Nov 2014Newspoll37%43%36%55%39%41%
11 Nov 2014Essential36%34%39%50%37%38%
4 Nov 2014Newspoll39%38%37%52%37%45%
30 Oct–1 Nov 2014Ipsos41%41%42%49%43%40%
21 Oct 2014Newspoll39%38%38%53%35%46%
14 Oct 2014Essential38%32%40%48%35%36%
23 Sep 2014Newspoll41%37%41%52%38%43%
5–7 Sep 2014Newspoll37%37%35%54%36%43%
22–24 Aug 2014Newspoll39%40%36%55%40%39%
8–10 Aug 2014Newspoll41%37%36%54%36%44%
25–27 Jul 2014Newspoll38%38%36%53%38%41%
11–13 Jul 2014Newspoll36%41%31%60%34%43%
27–29 Jun 2014Newspoll34%44%31%62%34%41%
13–15 Jun 2014Newspoll37%40%30%61%34%45%
30 May – 1 Jun 2014Newspoll35%45%33%59%38%43%
16–18 May 2014Newspoll34%44%30%60%42%39%
15–17 May 2014Nielsen40%51%34%62%47%39%
2–4 May 2014Newspoll40%38%35%56%35%41%
13 Apr 2014Nielsen45%44%43%50%43%41%
8 Apr 2014Essential42%32%41%47%34%38%
4–6 Apr 2014Newspoll41%33%40%47%31%42%
21–23 Mar 2014Newspoll43%36%40%50%36%43%
13–15 Mar 2014Nielsen48%43%45%49%42%42%
7–9 Mar 2014Newspoll42%36%38%50%33%43%
21–23 Feb 2014Newspoll [160] 38%37%36%52%35%39%
15 Feb 2014Nielsen [160] 49%39%45%47%40%40%
7–9 Feb 2014Newspoll41%33%40%45%35%35%
6–8 Dec 2013Newspoll41%34%40%45%44%27%
22–24 Nov 2013Newspoll44%33%42%42%39%27%
21–23 Nov 2013Nielsen [169] 49%41%47%46%51%30%
8–10 Nov 2013Newspoll46%30%45%38%37%24%
25–27 Oct 2013Newspoll47%28%47%34%32%24%
2013 election ––––––
3–5 Sep 2013Newspoll45%44%50%
^ Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

Individual seat polling

Notes

  1. ↑ Ipsos asked respondents to nominate their own second preferences. Based only on 2013 preference flows, TPP is LNP 56% to ALP 44%.
  2. ↑ Malcolm Turnbull succeeded Tony Abbott as Liberal Party leader on 14 September 2015. Poll was conducted to gauge the public's response.

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  122. ↑ "L-NP gets 'Budget boost' – now highest in over a year (February 2014)". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan. Retrieved 18 May 2015.
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  124. 1 2 "Newspoll: Budget win for voters, economy … and Tony Abbott". The Australian. Retrieved 17 May 2015.
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  127. 1 2 "Newspoll: Tony Abbott catches Shorten, Labor keeps lead". The Australian. Retrieved 5 May 2015.
  128. ↑ "L-NP vote virtually unchanged as Abbott Government prepares for second Federal Budget". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 4 May 2015.
  129. ↑ "ALP would still easily win Federal Election as Foreign Minister Julie Bishop arrives in Iran for talks on ISIS, asylum seekers and trade". Roy Morgan. 20 April 2015.
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  131. 1 2 "Abbott and Hockey lead Coalition poll dive". Ipsos. 12 April 2015. Retrieved 13 April 2015.
  132. ↑ "L-NP support jumps following Mike Baird's triumph in NSW Election". Roy Morgan Research. 7 April 2015. Retrieved 8 April 2015.
  133. ↑ "7 News – National Poll – 29 March 2015". ReachTEL. 30 March 2015. Retrieved 2 April 2015.
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  135. ↑ "Federal ALP increases lead as NSW prepares to vote in State Election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 March 2015. Retrieved 25 March 2015.
  136. ↑ Essential Media (10 March 2015). "Essential: Federal politics – voting intention" . Retrieved 12 March 2015.
  137. 1 2 Phillip Hudson (9 March 2015). "Newspoll: Tony Abbott rises but Labor has commanding lead". The Australian. Retrieved 9 March 2015.
  138. ↑ Roy Morgan Research (10 March 2015). "Roy Morgan Research: L-NP support increases after PM Abbott commits to sending Australian troops to Iraq" . Retrieved 12 March 2015.
  139. ↑ "Essential Report". Essential. 1 July 2014. Retrieved 6 July 2014.
  140. ↑ "ALP (57.5%) increases lead over L-NP (42.5%) as new Senate prepares to sit for first time". Morgan. 30 June 2014. Retrieved 6 July 2014.
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  142. ↑ "Federal politics – voting intention". Essential. 20 April 2014. Retrieved 28 May 2014.
  143. ↑ "ALP (57.5%) surges to biggest lead over L-NP (42.5%) since early August 2010 after Joe Hockey delivers his first Federal Budget". Roy Morgan. 18 May 2014. Retrieved 20 May 2014.
  144. ↑ Mark Kenny (19 May 2014). "Tony Abbott pays price for broken promises". SMH. Retrieved 19 May 2014.
  145. ↑ Samantha Maiden (3 May 2014). "Tony Abbott would lose an election if it was held now as voters see his deficit tax plan as a "broken promise"". The Daily Telegraph.
  146. ↑ "Federal Newspoll" (PDF). Newspoll.
  147. ↑ "ALP (52%) lead virtually unchanged over L-NP (48%) as Prince William and the Duchess of Cambridge tour Australia". Roy Morgan. 22 April 2014. Retrieved 4 May 2014.
  148. ↑ "The Essential Report". Essential. 15 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  149. ↑ "Tony Abbott slumps in polls despite best week yet". Nielsen. 13 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  150. ↑ "The Essential Report". Essential. 8 April 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014.
  151. ↑ "ALP (51.5%) lead is down over L-NP (48.5%) as special WA Senate Election shows both major parties losing support". Morgan. 7 April 2014. Retrieved 15 April 2014.
  152. ↑ "Federal Voting Intentions & Leaders Ratings" (PDF). Newspoll. 8 April 2014. Retrieved 10 April 2014.
  153. ↑ "ALP (54.5%) biggest lead over L-NP (45.5%) since losing the Election after ALP win narrowly in SA and L-NP win in Tasmania". Morgan. 24 March 2014. Retrieved 28 March 2014.
  154. ↑ "Federal politics- Voting intention". Essential. 25 March 2014. Retrieved 27 March 2014.
  155. ↑ "Newspoll". The Australian. 17 February 2014. Retrieved 25 March 2014.
  156. ↑ "Federal politics- Voting intention". Essential. 18 March 2014. Retrieved 27 March 2014.
  157. ↑ "PM backed despite job losses". Sydney Morning Herald. 17 February 2014. Retrieved 21 March 2014.
  158. ↑ "Federal politics- Voting intention". Essential. 5 March 2014. Retrieved 10 March 2014.
  159. ↑ "ALP (50.5%, down 1.5%) lead down again over L-NP (49.5%, up 1.5%) as Western Australia set to face a new half-Senate Election in April". Roy Morgan Research. 24 February 2014. Retrieved 24 February 2014.
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  161. ↑ "Tony Abbott bounces back as union woes hit Bill Shorten in latest poll". The Age. 17 February 2014. Retrieved 11 February 2014.
  162. ↑ "Latest Polls". The Australian. 11 February 2014. Retrieved 11 February 2014.
  163. ↑ "ALP (53%, up 0.5%) increases clear lead over L-NP (47%, down 0.5%). Government Confidence lowest since Abbott Government elected". Roy Morgan Research. 28 January 2014. Retrieved 28 January 2014.
  164. ↑ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Research. 21 January 2014. Retrieved 23 January 2014.
  165. ↑ "ALP (52.5%) start 2014 with a clear lead over the L-NP (47.5%) in first major public opinion poll of 2014". Roy Morgan Research. 13 January 2014. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
  166. ↑ "ALP (52.5%) increases lead over L-NP (47.5%) after Holden decision to cease manufacturing in 2017 and Roy Morgan Government Confidence lowest since Federal Election". Roy Morgan Research. 16 December 2013. Retrieved 13 January 2014.
  167. ↑ "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Research. 3 December 2013. Retrieved 4 December 2013.
  168. ↑ "ALP (51.5%) gain lead over L-NP (48.5%) after Gonski 'backflip'". Roy Morgan Research. 2 December 2013. Retrieved 2 December 2013.
  169. 1 2 "Labor storms ahead". The Age. 25 November 2013. Retrieved 25 November 2013.
  170. ↑ "L-NP (51.5%) regains lead over ALP (48.5%) after Bill Shorten elected as new ALP Leader". 21 October 2013. Retrieved 12 August 2015.
  171. ↑ "First Morgan Poll since Election: Major parties close on two-party preferred, Albanese (41%) cf. Shorten (23%) clearly preferred as next Labor Leader". Roy Morgan. 24 September 2013. Retrieved 12 August 2015.
  172. 1 2 "The Essential Report" (PDF). Essential Vision. 23 September 2013.
  173. ↑ "7 News National Poll". ReachTEL. 6 September 2013. Archived from the original on 7 September 2013. Retrieved 6 September 2013.
  174. ↑ "Newspoll: True measure of Labor's fall as Coalition surges on PM's gains". The Australian. Retrieved 26 October 2015.
  175. ↑ "Turnbull (76%) clearly preferred Australian PM cf. Shorten 'Mr. 14%'. December 1988: Hawke 69% cf. Howard 'Mr. 18%'". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 23 October 2015.
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