Opinion polling for the 2018 Mexican general election

Last updated

Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2018 Mexican general election.

Contents

The 2018 Mexican election features nine registered political parties, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN), Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the newly formed National Regeneration Movement (Morena).

Coalition backgrounds

Todos por México

PRI, which held the presidency from 1929 to 2000 and is currently in power under President Peña Nieto, is primarily a center-right party. It will be contesting the elections in a coalition alongside the Ecological Green Party of Mexico and the New Alliance Party (Mexico) under the coalition " Todos por México " ("Everyone for Mexico").

Por México al Frente

PAN is a center-right, Christian democracy [1] party which held the presidency in 2 sexenios from 2000-2012.

PRD grew out of the PRI in 1986 as the leftists who created the Corriente Democrática (Democratic Current) within PRI split off. It came quite close to claiming the presidency in 2006. Surprisingly, the PRD decided to form a coalition with the right-wing PAN, and they will contest the elections alongside Citizens' Movement in a coalition called " Por México al Frente " ("For Mexico, to the Front"). [2] [3] [4] [5]

Juntos Haremos Historia

MORENA, created in 2014 by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, affectionately called AMLO, is a left-leaning party which split from the PRD. [6] It will contest the elections as a coalition with the Labor Party (PT) and the Social Encounter Party (PES), called " Juntos Haremos Historia " ("Together we'll make history").

By coalitions

PollsterDate PAN (Mexico).svg PRD logo without border (Mexico).svg MC Party (Mexico).svg Morena logo (Mexico).svg PT Party (Mexico).svg PES logo (Mexico).svg PRI Party (Mexico).svg PVE logo (Mexico).svg PNA Party (Mexico).svg
Independiente (Mexico).png
OtherNoneNot mentioned
Mitofsky[ citation needed ]July 201721.7%16.7%15.9%5.5%3.0%37.2%
MitofskyAugust 201721.2%16.4%14.8%4%3.9%39.7%
Parametría [7] September 201732%23%15%14%16%
Reforma [8] September 201724%31%28%8%
México Elige [9] October 201722.5%36.1%21.8%11.4%8.2%
El Financiero [10] November 201718%24%22%21%15%
El Economista [11] December 201723.1%22.6%21.4%7.4%0.6%24.9%
Parametría [12] January 201832%42%26%12%18%
Arias Consultores [13] January 201818.1%50.1%15.5%6.5%9.8%
SABA [14] Feb 4-12, 201812.3%38.5%10.3%11.3%29%
Revista 32 [15] Feb 15-16, 201818.1%46.2%18.0%5.8%11.8%
Revista 32 [16] Mar 19-23, 201815.9%44.6%17.8%6.6%15.1%
Parametría [17] Mar 23-28, 201825%36%20%7%5%5%2%
Revista 32 [18] April 23-25, 201818.1%46.9%13.6%4.1%17.3%

    By candidates (January–June 2018)

    Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018. Tendencia historica de la intencion de voto.png
    Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018.
    AgencyDate Obrador Anaya Meade Zavala Rodríguez Other/None
    Parametría [19] January31%19%20%10%2%19%
    SDP Noticias [20] Jan 7-938.1%17.7%26.1%7.9%2.9%7.3%
    Mitofsky [21] January23.6%20.4%18.2%10%
    Focus Asesores [22] [23] January47%11%11%5%2%28%
    Arias Consultores [24] Jan 23-2556.2%14.3%16.3%6.5%2.5%4.1%
    El Universal [25] Jan 19-2532%26%16%4%2%4.1%
    El Financiero [26] Jan 27-3138%27%22%7%3%3%
    Parametría [27] Jan 25-Feb 234%23%18%7%2%16%
    Mendoza Blanco [28] Feb 2-430%26%16%3%2%23%
    SDP Noticias [29] Feb 2-638.4%19.5%25.7%7.2%2.6%6.8%
    Mitofksy [30] Feb 9-1127.1%22.3%18.0%
    Reforma [31] Feb 8-1133%25%14%4%2%22%
    SABA [32] Feb 4-1238.3%12.5%10.3%8.0%1.9%29%
    Parámetro [33] Feb 9-1130.5%23.8%23.3%3.9%2.0%16.5%
    Fox News [34] Feb 9-1140%31%20%9%
    Revista 32 [35] Feb 15-1648.2%16.3%17.8%4.2%2.5%10.9%
    Massive Caller [36] February30.55%24.78%15.4%7.23%2%20.04%
    El Pais [37] March37.8%29.2%23.8%5.7%2.6%
    Parametría [38] Feb 24-Mar 135%21%16%10%5%13%
    Bloomberg [39] March 842.2%27.4%20.6%4%1.6%
    Indemerc [40] March 8-1044.1%15.1%10.9%8.2%2%19.7%
    El Financiero [41] March 9-1442%23%24%7%2%2%
    Arias Consultores [42] March 19-2347.8%14.6%18.1%6.2%13.2%
    Parametría [43] March 23-2838%20%16%13%
    Gii 360 [44] March 30-April 343%19%13%7%18%
    Berumen y Asociados [45] April 3–542%31.1%21.9%5%
    SDP Noticias [46] April 11–1441.9%19.7%22.7%9%2.5%
    Reforma [47] April 12–1548%26%18%5%3%
    Bloomberg [48] April 1547.8%26.6%17.9%5.1%
    SDP Noticias [49] April 25–2841.4%24.7%22.2%4.8%3.1%3.8%
    Revista 32 [50] April 23–2550.9%17.8%13.5%2.2%2.8%13.8%
    La Silla Rota [51] April 25-2845%29%18%5%3%
    Reforma [52] April 26-3048%30%17%3%2%
    Varela y Asociados [53] April 28-May 447.5%33.1%16.2%1.7%1.4%
    El Financiero [54] April 26-May 246%26%20%5%3%
    Ipsos [55] May 11-1543%24%16%2%15%
    SDP Noticias [56] May 18-1942.4%25.8%24.2%0.6%3.3%3.7%
    Eje Central [57] May 21-2249%26%21%4%
    Reforma [58] May 24-2752%26%19%4%
    Parametría [59] May 23-2954%24%17%3%2%
    Varela y Asociados [60] May 30-June 450.6%29.5%17.6%2.2%
    BGC [61] May 31-June 447%29%21%3%
    De Las Heras Demotecnia [62] June 10-1350%25%19%5%1%
    Arias Consultores [63] June 13-1562%19.8%13.7%3.3%
    Reforma [64] June 20-2451%27%19%3%
    BGC [65] June 22-2549%26%21%4%
    El Financiero [66] June 15-2354%21%22%3%
    Presidential electionJuly 153.19%22.28%16.41%0.06%5.23%

    By candidates (April–December 2017)

    PollstersDate Obrador Zavala Chong Mancera Rodríguez Anaya Ávila Valle Nuño Meade OtherNoneNot mentioned
    El FinancieroApril 201729%32%27%8%4%
    El Universal April 201733%27%13%6%4%
    32%16%6%20%
    32%26%6%13%
    GEA-ISAJune 201718%6%4%2%7%5%4%
    Reforma July 201731%26%15%7%1%15%5%
    30%26%14%6%5%1%14%4%
    30%27%14%9%1%14%5%
    32%17%8%17%1%20%5%
    33%17%16%8%1%19%6%
    El FinancieroJuly 201730%28%24%10%8%
    MitofskyAugust 201725.9%19.7%14.8%4.4%4.6%
    24.9%15.4%5.2%3.8%20.5%
    26.3%15.7%4.5%4.9%19.8%
    25.9%18.7%5.1%5%13.6%
    26.2%19.3%5%4.5%12.8%
    25.6%4.9%5.2%20.1%13.1%
    México Elige [9] October 201736.7%14.7%19.6%5.3%2.2%
    Reforma November 201731%8%2%19%17%1%10%12%
    GCE [67] [68] December 201727.8%9.7%6.3%4.2%9.2%21.5%0.3%7.5%13.5%
    Massive Caller [69] December 201727.2%9%9%18.1%20.4%4.3%18.2%

    By political parties

    PollsterDate
    PRI PRI Party (Mexico).svg
    PRI
    PAN PAN (Mexico).svg
    PAN
    PRD PRD logo without border (Mexico).svg
    PRD
    MORENA Morena logo (Mexico).svg
    MORENA
    PT PT Party (Mexico).svg
    PT
    PVEM PVE logo (Mexico).svg
    PVEM
    MC MC Party (Mexico).svg
    MC
    NA PNA Party (Mexico).svg
    NA
    PES Encuentro Social Party (Mexico).png
    PES
    Independiente (Mexico).png
    OtherNo-oneNot mentioned
    Parametría August 201529%23%9%21%8%5%2%3%
    GEA-ISA March 201633%16%7%7%4%17%18%
    Mitofsky March 201621.5%16.4%10.8%11.7%0.6%1.1%1.8%0.6%0.5%4.3%14%16.7%
    Mitofsky May 201622.3%18.6%8.7%12.1%0.8%1.2%1.9%0.7%0.9%4.6%28.2%
    GEA-ISA June 201628%19%5%11%6%11%21%
    El Financiero June 201629%28%8%19%1%3%2%3%1%6%
    Mitofsky July 201619.620%8.1%12.2%1.1%1.3%1.9%1%1.1%2.8%30.9%
    Reforma August 201622%27%6%18%5%3%11%8%
    GEA-ISA September 201622%23%8%9%7%15%15%
    Parametría September 201627%30%10%21%2%5%1%2%2%3%
    Mitofsky September 201619.5%20.2%7.8%12.1%1.1%1.3%1.6%0.9%1%3.3%31.2%
    El Financiero November 201628%29%11%18%5%
    Reforma December 201622%27%5%22%3%5%11%5%
    Massive Caller January 201712.8%20.48%5.5%21.68%1.6%8.5%5.2%23.9%
    Reforma [ permanent dead link ]January 201717%24%10%27%2%4%10%6%
    El Financiero February 201722%25%9%25%3%3%3%3%1%6%
    Mitofsky February 201713%18.8%5.1%15.9%0.8%1.4%1.7%1.1%0.7%3.0%38.5%
    México Elige February 201712.4%21.0%1.2%36.9%0.2%0.4%3%0.5%0.6%14.5%
    GEA-ISA March 201719%20%7%15%5%17%18%
    El Financiero April 201728%29%10%21%1%3%2%1%1%4%
    Excelsior April 201719%21%8%26%2%24%
    El Universal April 201713%27%6%33%4%
    El Universal April 201713%23%6%24%3%4%4%4%2%17%
    Parametría [12] January 201825%24%5%30%12%18%
    SDP Noticias [29] Feb 2-6, 201820.6%13.6%2.8%36.0%1.1%2.7%3.1%2.4%1.3%11.2%5.4%
    SABA [70] Feb 4-129.4%9.9%1.7%30.4%0.4%0.8%1.6%0.1%8.4%0.6%15.7%16.8%
    Parametría [17] Mar 23-2815%15%5%29%3%2%3%3%1%6%1%2%15%
    Gii 360 [71] March 30-April 3, 201812%14%2%34%1%1%2%1%1%6%26%

    References

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