2024 Mexican general election

Last updated

2024 Mexican general election
Flag of Mexico.svg
2 June 2024
Presidential election
←  2018
2030 →
Opinion polls
Turnout61.05% (Decrease2.svg 2.38pp)
 
Claudia Sheinbaum en su conferencia matutina (cropped).jpg
Xochitl Galvez mayo 2024 (cropped).jpg
Jorge Alvarez Maynez (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee Claudia Sheinbaum Xóchitl Gálvez Jorge Máynez
Party MORENA PAN [a] MC
Alliance Sigamos Haciendo Historia Fuerza y Corazón por México
Popular vote35,924,51916,502,6976,204,710
Percentage61.18%28.11%10.57%
Elecciones presidenciales de Mexico de 2024 por entidad federativa.svg
Elecciones presidenciales de Mexico de 2024 por distrito federal.svg
President before election

Andrés Manuel López Obrador
MORENA

Elected President

Claudia Sheinbaum
MORENA

Senate
←  2018
2030 →
All 128 seats in the Senate of the Republic
65 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderVote %Seats+/–
Sigamos Haciendo Historia (83 seats)
MORENA Mario Delgado 42.4860+5
PVEM Karen Castrejón Trujillo 9.3014+8
PT Alberto Anaya 5.589+3
Fuerza y Corazón por México (40 seats)
PAN Marko Cortés Mendoza 17.5422−1
PRI Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas 11.3316+2
PRD Jesús Zambrano Grijalva 2.362−6
Other (5 seats)
MC Dante Delgado 11.335−2
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Chamber of Deputies
←  2021
2027 →
All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderVote %Seats+/–
Sigamos Haciendo Historia (364 seats)
MORENA Mario Delgado 42.40236+38
PVEM Karen Castrejón Trujillo 8.7277+34
PT Alberto Anaya 5.6851+14
Fuerza y Corazón por México (108 seats)
PAN Marko Cortés Mendoza 17.5572−42
PRI Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas 11.5735−35
PRD Jesús Zambrano Grijalva 2.531−14
Other (28 seats)
MC Dante Delgado 11.3427+4
Independents –0.131+1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Elecciones legislativas de Mexico de 2024 por distrito federal.svg
Results by constituency

General elections were held in Mexico on 2 June 2024. [3] [4] Voters elected a new president to serve a six-year term, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, and all 128 members of the Senate of the Republic. These elections took place concurrently with the 2024 state elections.

Contents

Claudia Sheinbaum, a member of the left-wing political party Morena, [5] was widely regarded by her party as the top contender to succeed President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and ultimately secured the nomination of the ruling coalition, Sigamos Haciendo Historia. Xóchitl Gálvez emerged as the frontrunner of Fuerza y Corazón por México following a surge in popularity due to criticisms from López Obrador. [6] [7] Citizens' Movement, the only national party without a coalition, nominated Jorge Máynez. This was the first general election in Mexico's history in which most contenders for the country's presidency were women.

Sheinbaum won the presidential election by a landslide margin of over 33 points, becoming the first woman and the first person of full Jewish descent to be elected president of Mexico, as well as the first Jewish woman elected head of state in Latin America. [8] [9] The election saw Sheinbaum receiving the highest number of votes ever recorded for a candidate in Mexican history, surpassing López Obrador's record of 30.1 million votes from 2018. [10] Sheinbaum was officially sworn into office on 1 October 2024. [11]

In the legislative elections, the Sigamos Haciendo Historia coalition won a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies. The coalition fell three seats short of a supermajority in the Senate, but defections by the two senators elected for the PRD on 28 August closed the shortfall to one.

Background

Political background

The 2018 elections saw a landslide victory for Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the three-time presidential candidate from the National Regeneration Movement (Morena). Running as the candidate of the Juntos Haremos Historia alliance, López Obrador won in a landslide with 54.71% of the vote, defeating his closest rival, Ricardo Anaya of the Por México al Frente coalition, by nearly 31 points. The Juntos Haremos Historia alliance, comprising Morena, the Labor Party (PT), and the Social Encounter Party (PES), also secured majorities in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate.

As president, López Obrador expanded the Mexican welfare state with programs aimed at the elderly and low-income students, invested heavily in infrastructure projects, and significantly raised the minimum wage. While his administration achieved a reduction in poverty, it faced accusations of democratic backsliding and undermining institutional independence. His term was also marked as one of the bloodiest in Mexico's history—though the homicide rate decreased, the total number of deaths exceeded that of any previous administration. [12]

During the 2021 elections, party alliances shifted significantly. The National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) formed a big-tent coalition to challenge Morena's growing dominance. [13] [14] While Sigamos Haciendo Historia, a coalition of Morena, the PT, and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), lost its supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies, it achieved significant success in local elections, flipping numerous governorships. [15] [16] [17]

López Obrador remained highly popular throughout his presidency, consistently maintaining a 60% approval rating, making him one of the most popular leaders globally. [12] [18]

Political violence

Political violence in Mexico typically escalates during election season, with candidates often facing threats, abductions, assaults, or assassinations. While this violence is most common at the municipal level, it can also occur at the federal level. [19]

During the 2021 elections, 102 politicians were killed, including 36 who were nominees or candidates for public office. [20]

By January 2024, before the campaigning period started, multiple aspiring candidates for political office had been killed. [21] The government provided security guards to around 560 candidates and election officials. [22] Around 27,000 personnel of the Armed Forces and National Guard were deployed to secure the electoral process. [23] By May 2024, the candidate death toll had risen to 37. [22]

Electoral system

The National Electoral Institute (INE) oversees federal elections in Mexico. Its responsibilities include organizing election day logistics, producing and distributing electoral materials, counting votes, and certifying the election results. [24]

Voters must present their voter ID at polling stations to cast their ballots. Voters with physical limitations or disabilities and voters in preventive detention are able to vote in advance, with electoral materials sent to the voter. [25] [26] Mexican citizens residing abroad who maintain their political rights can vote by registering in the Electoral Roll for Citizens Residing Abroad and casting their votes at an embassy, electronically, or by mail. [27]

On 30 April 2024, the INE announced that there were 98,329,591 registered voters in Mexico, 187,388 registered voters abroad, 30,391 registered voters in preventive detention, and 4,002 registered for early voting. [28]

Presidential election

The president is elected by plurality voting in a single round; there is no provision for a second run-off round. [29] Article 83 of the Mexican Constitution limits the president to a single six-year term, called a sexenio ; no one who has served as president, even on a caretaker basis, is allowed to run for or serve in the office again. [30] The new president will be sworn in on 1 October. [31]

Legislative elections

The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected in two ways: 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by plurality vote, and the remaining 200 are elected by proportional representation in five multi-member districts, with seats divided according to Hamilton's method. No party is permitted to hold more than 300 seats. [32] [33] Deputies are elected for three-year terms and will serve in the 66th Congress. [34]

The 128 members of the Senate are also elected in two ways: 96 are elected in 32 three-seat constituencies based on the country's states and the remaining 32 in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation. [35] In the three-seat constituencies, two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes (mayoría relativa) [36] and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes (primera minoría). [37] [38] [39] Senators are elected for six-year terms and will serve in the 66th and 67th Congresses.

Redistricting

In December 2022, the INE redistributed the country's 300 electoral districts, making this the first election to occur with the new boundaries. [40] Minor adjustments were also made to the five multi-member constituencies, affecting the states of Hidalgo and Querétaro. [41]

Newly created seats

Seven new districts were created. [40]

  1. Baja California-9th
  2. Coahuila-8th
  3. Nuevo León-13th
  4. Nuevo León-14th
  5. Puebla-16th
  6. Querétaro-6th
  7. Yucatán-6th

Seats eliminated

Seven districts were eliminated. [40]

  1. Mexico City-23rd
  2. Mexico City-24th
  3. Guerrero-9th
  4. State of Mexico-41st
  5. Michoacán-12th
  6. Tamaulipas-9th
  7. Veracruz-20th

Political parties and coalitions

Seven national political parties were registered with the INE and were eligible to participate in the federal elections: the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), the Labor Party (PT), the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM), Citizens' Movement (MC) and the National Regeneration Movement (Morena). [42]

The General Law of Political Parties stipulates that national political parties can form coalitions for elections by submitting a coalition agreement to the electoral authority. Parties cannot join coalitions in their first election. [43] All parties were eligible to join a coalition in this election.

Parties that do not reach 3% of the popular vote in either the presidential or legislative elections will lose their registration as a national political party. [43]

Summary

Party or allianceLeaderPositionStatus
Sigamos Haciendo Historia National Regeneration Movement Mario Delgado Left-wing Government
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico Karen Castrejón Trujillo Centre-left
Labor Party Alberto Anaya Left-wing
Fuerza y Corazón por México National Action Party Marko Cortés Mendoza Centre-right to right-wing Opposition
Institutional Revolutionary Party Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas Centre or big tent
Party of the Democratic Revolution Jesús Zambrano Grijalva Centre-left to left-wing
Citizens' Movement Dante Delgado Rannauro Centre to centre-left

Sigamos Haciendo Historia

Sigamos Haciendo Historia ("Let's Keep Making History") was established on 19 November 2023 as the direct successor to Juntos Hacemos Historia, encompassing the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), the Labor Party (PT), and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM). [44] [45] [46]

Fuerza y Corazón por México

On 26 June 2023, the leaders of the constituent parties of Va por México, a big tent opposition coalition, announced the formation of Frente Amplio por México ("Broad Front for Mexico"). Comprising the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), the grouping was created to select a presidential nominee. [47]

On 29 August 2023, Dante Delgado, the party leader of Citizens' Movement, ruled out joining Frente Amplio por México. [48] [49]

On 20 November 2023, the grouping registered as a coalition under the name Fuerza y Corazón por México ("Strength and Heart for Mexico"), composed of the same parties. [50]

Presidential candidates

Sigamos Haciendo Historia

On 11 June 2023, Juntos Hacemos Historia, the predecessor coalition to Sigamos Haciendo Historia, announced an internal selection process to select a de facto presidential nominee. [51] The coalition required that prospective candidates resign from their positions in the government to stand for the nomination. [52] Marcelo Ebrard, secretary of foreign affairs, was the first to register as a candidate, followed by Claudia Sheinbaum, Head of Government of Mexico City. Other candidates included Adán Augusto López, [53] Gerardo Fernández Noroña, Ricardo Monreal, and Manuel Velasco.

The coalition's internal process consisted of five opinion polls, with four polls selected from a list comprising each candidate's two suggested polling companies. [54] The polls were conducted from 28 August to 4 September. On 6 September 2023, Sheinbaum was declared the winner and was later confirmed as the prospective nominee. [55] [56]

On 19 November 2023, the day Sigamos Haciendo Historia was officially registered as a coalition, it designated Sheinbaum as the coalition's presidential nominee. [44] Sheinbaum formally registered her candidacy at the INE on 18 February 2024. [57]

Candidate% [58]
Claudia Sheinbaum 39.38
Marcelo Ebrard 25.80
Gerardo Fernández Noroña 12.2
Adán Augusto López 10.0
Manuel Velasco Coello 7.16
Ricardo Monreal 5.86

Nominee

Fuerza y Corazón por México

Frente Amplio por México required prospective candidates to secure 150,000 signatures, including a minimum of 1,000 signatures from 17 out of the nation's 32 states. Four candidates successfully advanced through this stage: Xóchitl Gálvez, Beatriz Paredes, Santiago Creel, and Enrique de la Madrid. [59] [60]

Polls were used in the internal selection process's subsequent phases. The first poll, held from 11 to 14 August, intended to identify the top three candidates. Following that, a second poll was scheduled for 27–30 August, accounting for 50% of the points required for nomination. The remaining 50% would be selected by an online poll on 3 September. [61]

In the first poll, Enrique de la Madrid was eliminated. Santiago Creel resigned on 21 August, just before the second poll, and endorsed Xóchitl Gálvez. During the second poll, Gálvez defeated Beatriz Paredes by 15 points. On 31 August, the PRI endorsed Gálvez, effectively removing their candidate, Paredes, from the campaign. [62] Later that day, the third poll was cancelled, and Gálvez was confirmed as the likely presidential nominee. [63]

On 20 November 2023, the day Frente Amplio por México registered as a coalition under the name Fuerza y Corazón por México, it designated Gálvez as the coalition's presidential nominee. [64] She formally registered her candidacy at the INE on 20 February 2024. [65]

CandidateFirst poll [66] Second poll [67]
%%
Xóchitl Gálvez 38.357.58
Beatriz Paredes 26.042.42
Santiago Creel 20.1Withdrawn
Enrique de la Madrid 15.6Eliminated

Nominee

Citizens' Movement

Citizens' Movement's presidential candidate registration period was open from 3 to 12 November. The first person to register was Senator Indira Kempis Martínez, who had previously declared her intention to run for president. Seven others, including Samuel García, governor of Nuevo León, registered in the race. [68] [69] [70] On 12 November, Marcelo Ebrard, who had failed to be selected as the candidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia, announced he was not seeking the party's nomination, despite being courted by the party. [71]

On 17 November, the party disqualified seven out of eight candidates, leaving only Samuel García. [72] However, on 2 December, García suspended his campaign due to a political crisis in his state over the appointment of an interim governor to replace him. [73] On 9 January 2024, federal deputy Jorge Máynez was nominated as a substitute for Samuel García, with García announcing on social media that Máynez would be the party's next presidential candidate. [74] The next day, Máynez was officially designated as the party's sole candidate. [75] Máynez formally registered his candidacy at the INE on 22 February 2024. [76]

Nominee

Independents

The registration deadline for individuals wishing to run for president as independent candidates (i.e. without the backing of a registered party) expired on 7 September 2023. [77]

To formalize their candidacies, independent presidential hopefuls have to collect the signatures of voters endorsing them in an amount equal to 1% of the country's entire electoral roll – a total of over 966,000 [78] – distributed equally across at least 17 of the nation's states, within a period of 120 days. [79]

A total of 27 individuals informed the INE of their wish to run for the presidency as independent candidates before the deadline. By 7 September, six of them had been given permission to begin collecting signatures; the remaining 21 were given 48 hours to correct shortcomings in the documentation they had presented. [80] The six green-lighted prospective independent candidates were Rocío Gabriela González Castañeda, Ulises Ernesto Ruiz Ortiz, César Enrique Asiain del Castillo, Hugo Eric Flores Cervantes, María Ofelia Edgar Mares and José Eduardo Verástegui Córdoba. [80] A further three – Fernando Mauricio Jiménez Chávez, Manuel Antonio Romo Aguirre, and Ignacio Benavente Torres – were announced on 27 September. [81] [82]

At the conclusion of the 120-day deadline, the INE announced that none of the prospective independent candidates had been successful in collecting the required number of signatures. [83] [84]

Campaigns

The INE established that the campaigning period for president, senators, and federal deputies would officially begin on 1 March and conclude on 29 May, three days before the elections. [85] Election silence was observed from 30 May until the polls closed on 2 June. [86]

Issues

Security

Polling indicated that crime and violence ranked high on voters' concerns in the election. [87] During outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador's term, Mexico experienced one of its bloodiest periods. From 2018 to 2022, the number of intentional homicides surpassed 30,000, with the peak in 2020 at 36,773 homicides. [88] [89] However, since 2020, homicide rates have decreased. In 2023, homicides fell below 30,000 for the first time since 2018, totaling 29,675. [90] Despite this decrease, the numbers remain higher than any recorded between 1990 and 2017. [89]

López Obrador tackled this issue by endorsing the "hugs, not bullets" slogan and establishing the civilian-led National Guard. Some have raised the suspicions that López Obrador's administration is underreporting intentional homicides, with some cases possibly being reclassified as having undetermined intentions in order to bring the figure down. [91]

Xóchitl Gálvez highlighted that security would be a top priority in her government. She expressed her opposition to López Obrador's "hugs, not bullets" approach and proposed a number of measures to strengthen state police forces across the country, including raising their salaries to MXN $20,000 per month, building a university for aspiring police officers, and providing state governments with increased economic resources and advanced technology to combat crime. [92] Gálvez also suggested doubling the numbers of prosecutors and judges and the size of the National Guard; [93] redirecting the Secretariat of National Defense's (SEDENA) focus from public works back to national security; vowing to work closely with the United States in order to confront the drug cartels; [94] and to construct a new maximum security prison. [95]

Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed her commitment to replicating her success as Head of Government of Mexico City, where, in 2023, her policies brought down intentional homicides to their lowest level since 1989. [96] She explained that she would follow a similar structure, emphasizing zero impunity by strengthening coordination among the National Guard, state police forces, and prosecutors, as well as improving intelligence and investigative services. She also announced plans to strengthen the National Guard's capabilities, allowing them to increase their duties in highway monitoring and as first responders. She also stressed the role of the judicial branch in bringing criminals to justice, advocating that judges be chosen by popular vote and establishing a disciplinary court to punish corrupt judges. [95] [97]

Social programs

President López Obrador implemented various social programs, with the largest being the Pension for the Well-being of Older People (Pensión para el Bienestar de las Personas Adultas Mayores), targeting individuals aged 65 and above. [98] [99] These programs are very popular among voters. [100]

Both Xóchitl Gálvez and Claudia Sheinbaum expressed their support for the social programs established by the outgoing administration and pledged not to abolish them. Gálvez proposed reducing the age eligibility for the Pension for the Well-being of Older People from 65 to 60. [101] Sheinbaum pledged to ensure that any increases to the pensions from all social programs will always be above the inflation rate. [97]

Sheinbaum has proposed two new social programs: one aimed at students from preschool to secondary education, [102] and the other targeting women aged 60 to 64, where they would receive half the amount provided by the Pension for the Well-being of Older People. [97]

Energy

López Obrador has pursued an energy sovereignty policy, seeking to prevent Pemex from exporting crude oil and instead refining it in Mexico. To this end, he inaugurated a new refinery in Paraíso, Tabasco, cancelled oil auctions, financed Pemex's debts, and used regulatory agencies to keep private firms off the market. [103]

Claudia Sheinbaum is committed to following López Obrador's approach, believing that the country's energy policy should have a low rate of energy imports. [104] She has claimed to have a commitment to diversifying Mexico's energy matrix, particularly with renewable energies.

Xóchitl Gálvez advocated for a more free-market model approach to Mexico's energy sector, proposing significant reforms to Pemex by opening it up to private investment and reinstating oil auctions and joint ventures, using Petrobras as an example. [105] She stated that she would use the oil drilled by private companies for the petrochemical industry and would produce electricity with renewable energies. [106] Additionally, Gálvez emphasized the role of natural gas as a transitional fuel and intended to increase investments in hydrogen and solar power. [107]

Electoral reform

During his term, president López Obrador unsuccessfully attempted to pass electoral reforms multiple times. His latest proposal, unveiled on 5 February 2024 as one of twenty proposed constitutional reforms, aims to restructure the INE by reducing the number of counselers and requiring that electoral judges be elected by popular vote. Additionally, it would eliminate all seats allocated by proportional representation, reducing the Chamber of Deputies from 500 to 300 seats and the Senate from 128 to 64 seats. [108]

Members of Fuerza y Corazón por México have been critical of López Obrador's efforts to reform the electoral system and have successfully blocked previous attempts in the legislature, deeming them undemocratic. On 18 February 2024, the coalition organized nationwide protests, dubbed the "march for democracy", in multiple cities, with the largest one occurring at the Zócalo in Mexico City. Government figures estimate turnout at 90,000; however, organizers claim that about 700,000 attendees were at the protests. [109] Gálvez lauded the protests, asserting that Mexico's institutions would remain free from interference by authoritative figures. [110]

Sheinbaum suggested passing López Obrador's electoral reform if the outgoing administration failed to do so, supporting reducing the INE's costs, the elimination of seats allocated by proportional representation, [111] and advocating for counselers and electoral judges to be elected via popular vote. [112] Additionally, she proposed a constitutional amendment to prevent reelection for any popularly elected position. Furthermore, she announced her willingness to subject herself to a recall election, mirroring López Obrador in 2022. [113]

Debates

Prior to the campaigning period, the INE set the date and venue for the three presidential debates. [114] According to electoral law, presidential candidates are required to take part in a minimum of two debates. [115] Moderators were selected 30 days before the debate date. All debates took place in Mexico City and were broadcast on the INE's official YouTube channel, INETV. [116]

Debates for the 2024 Mexican presidential election
DateTimeVenueModerator(s)ParticipantsViewership
(millions)
7 April 20248:00 p.m. CST Instituto Nacional Electoral Denise Maerker
Manuel López San Martín		 Claudia Sheinbaum
Xóchitl Gálvez
Jorge Máynez 		13.7 [117]
28 April 20248:00 p.m. CST Estudios Churubusco Adriana Pérez Cañedo
Alejandro Cacho		16.18 [118]
19 May 20248:00 p.m. CST Centro Cultural Universitario Tlatelolco  [ es ] (UNAM)Luisa Cantú Ríos
Elena Solís
Javier Solórzano Zinser  [ es ]		13.9 [119]

First debate

The first debate was held on 7 April 2024 at the INE's headquarters. The theme of the debate was "the society we want", with questions focused on health and education, corruption and governmental transparency, discrimination against vulnerable groups, and violence against women. [116] On 6 March, the INE selected journalists Denise Maerker and Manuel López San Martín as moderators of the debate. [120] The debate was the first in 18 years without López Obrador, who participated in the presidential debates during the 2006, 2012, and 2018 elections. [121]

The debate was characterized as light on proposals, with frequent personal attacks being prevalent. [122] Gálvez was described as attempting to attack Sheinbaum whenever she had the opportunity to do so in order to provoke her opponent, [123] interlacing attacks with incidents where Sheinbaum was involved, such as the collapse of the Colegio Rébsamen during the 2017 Mexico City earthquake, the Mexico City Metro overpass collapse, and the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City. Gálvez called Sheinbaum the cold and heartless "ice lady" and at one point stated, "You're no AMLO. You don't even have his charisma". [124] Máynez accused Sheinbaum and Gálvez of belonging to the "old politics", and highlighted that Gálvez was endorsed by the "worst PRI in history". [124] Sheinbaum also briefly mentioned the 2024 raid on the Mexican embassy in Ecuador and praised diplomatic staff there for their courage during the incident. [125]

Many stated that there was no clear winner and that the debate would not influence polling. [126] [127] However, some highlighted Sheinbaum's calm and disciplined demeanor throughout the debate, even amid provocations from Gálvez. [127] Máynez was described as struggling to find footing, since he was overshadowed by the two better-known candidates. [128] López Obrador stated that "the whole narrative of the debate was to not recognize anything" done under his administration, while sources from his government said that the president was dissatisfied with Sheinbaum for not adequately defending his policies. [129]

Second debate

The second debate was held on 28 April 2024 at Estudios Churubusco. The theme was "the route to the development of Mexico", addressing topics including economic growth, employment, inflation, infrastructure, poverty, climate change, and sustainable development. To ensure state inclusivity, the INE gathered questions from citizens of all 32 federal entities. [116] On 28 March, the INE selected journalists Adriana Pérez Cañedo and Alejandro Cacho as moderators of the debate. [130] The debate was the most watched in Mexican history, with 16.18 million viewers. [131]

Similar to the first debate, Gálvez was again described as the aggressor, even holding placards several times while Sheinbaum spoke, prompting moderator Pérez Cañedo to reprimand her. [132] Gálvez questioned Sheinbaum about investigating potential corruption within López Obrador's administration, including allegations involving one of the president's sons and the illicit enrichment of Rocío Nahle García, to which Sheinbaum challenged her to file a complaint. [133] Throughout the debate, Sheinbaum avoided addressing Gálvez by name, referring to her instead as the "candidate of the PRIAN" and the "corrupt one"; in retaliation, Gálvez called her the "candidate of lies" and the "narco-candidate". [134] Máynez was mostly ignored by the other candidates, which allowed him to flesh out proposals, with periodic attacks on Gálvez. [135] Some praise was also drawn to López Obrador's social programs, with Sheinbaum and Gálvez agreeing to maintain them. [136]

Many stated that the debate would not influence polling as there was no clear consensus on a winner. It was described that on social media, opinions on the winner were very closely linked to the opinions on the candidates prior to the debate. [137] In Google Trends, Máynez led in average interest during the debate, although there were moments when Sheinbaum had higher peaks than Máynez. [138]

Third debate

The third and final debate was held on 19 May 2024, held at UNAM's Centro Cultural Universitario Tlatelolco. The theme was "democracy and government: constructive dialogues", with questions focused on social policy; insecurity and organized crime; migration and foreign policy; and democracy, pluralism, and division of powers. On 18 April 2024, the INE selected journalists Luisa Cantú Ríos, Elena Arcila, and Javier Solórzano Zinser as moderators of the debate, each respectively representing the northern, southern, and central regions of Mexico. [139] The debate's format would have initially allowed candidates to directly engage with each other, [116] but on 9 May, the campaigns agreed to a new format where candidates would submit questions to the moderators, who would then choose and ask them. [140]

The debate saw Claudia Sheinbaum defend López Obrador's security policy and pledging to continue tackling the Mexican drug war from a social angle, while Xóchitl Gálvez said that "Hugs for criminals are over" in reference to López Obrador's slogan "Hugs, not bullets" and pledged to strengthen the National Guard created by López Obrador as well as state and local police forces. Jorge Álvarez Máynez focused on youth empowerment during the debate and pledged to implement a five-day workweek and create more spaces in public universities. [141]

Many commentators criticized the debate's format and the removal of the face-to-face portion, arguing that it hindered meaningful dialogue. [142] Opinions on the winner varied, with some finding it unclear and others declaring Sheinbaum the victor, claiming that Sheinbaum won because Gálvez had lost, as she spent too much time attacking Sheinbaum instead of presenting her own proposals. [142] [143] Most polls indicated that Sheinbaum was perceived as the winner. [144] [145]

Incidents

Gaffes

In April 2024, Xóchitl Gálvez stated that people who did not own a house by the age of 60 were poor money managers, before later clarifying that the words were meant solely at Claudia Sheinbaum, who lives in a rented apartment and had attacked Gálvez for the circumstances in which she acquired her home. [146] Jorge Máynez also sparked outrage and apologized after posting a video in which he appeared to be drinking while criticizing electoral officials. [147]

On 10 May 2024, Claudia Sheinbaum said during a campaign speech in Baja California Sur that "we are not going to reach the presidency like Andrés Manuel López Obrador did, out of personal ambition". Sheinbaum subsequently said that the phrase "could be misinterpreted" after being advised by the colleague, saying that she meant to say that López Obrador "transformed our country without personal ambitions". Xóchitl Gálvez said that the incident showed a Freudian slip on Sheinbaum's part. [147]

Disasters

On 22 May, a stage being used by Jorge Álvarez Máynez for a campaign rally was toppled by strong winds in San Pedro Garza García, Nuevo León, killing nine people including a child, and injuring 121 others. Máynez, who managed to escape, suspended his upcoming campaign events and met with hospitalized victims. Condolences were issued by his rivals and President López Obrador over the incident, while Claudia Sheinbaum cancelled an event in neighboring Monterrey scheduled the next day in solidarity with the victims of the disaster. [148]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

Local regression of polling conducted up to the 2024 Mexican presidential election (excludes others and undecided) 2024 Mexican presidential polling.svg
Local regression of polling conducted up to the 2024 Mexican presidential election (excludes others and undecided)

Polling aggregations

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		 Claudia Sheinbaum (conferencia de prensa) (cropped).jpg Xochitl Galvez mayo 2024 (cropped).jpg Jorge Alvarez Maynez (cropped).jpg Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Máynez
MC
Oraculus through May 202429 May 202453%36%11%17%
CEDE through 28 May 202429 May 202456%33.3%10.7%22.7%
Polls.mx through 29 May 202429 May 202455%31%13%24%
Bloomberg through 28 May 202429 May 202455.3%34%10.7%21.3%
Expansión Política through 28 May 202429 May 202453.16%33.76%10.36%19.4%
Average54.5%33.6%11.2%20.9%
Results61.18%28.11%10.57%33.08%

Conduct

Voter in a wheelchair uses an adapted voting booth. Elecciones federales de Mexico de 2024 16.jpg
Voter in a wheelchair uses an adapted voting booth.

Early voting for voters with disabilities or limited physical mobility, as well as for those in preventive detention, took place from 6 to 20 May. [25] [26] On 2 June, polling stations opened at 8:00 CST and closed at 18:00 CST. [149]

Ballot boxes in Mexico City. Elecciones federales de Mexico de 2024 10.jpg
Ballot boxes in Mexico City.

Polling stations

There were 170,182 polling stations approved to be installed nationwide. [150] On 2 June at 20:00 CST, it was announced that 23 were not installed. [151]

Election day violence

On 1 June, authorities ordered the suspension of voting in the municipalities of Pantelhó and Chicomuselo in Chiapas, citing the burning of election papers in the former by unknown individuals on 31 May and threats against poll workers by gang members. [152] On election day, two people were killed in shootings at polling stations at Coyomeapan and Tlanalapan in Puebla. [153]

Result reporting

A person receives electoral ink on her thumb after casting her vote. Elecciones federales de Mexico de 2024 15.jpg
A person receives electoral ink on her thumb after casting her vote.

On election day, the INE uses two processes to report results, both strictly for informational purposes and not official. The Preliminary Electoral Results Program (PREP) progressively counts votes from tally sheets at polling stations, digitizing and recording them in an online system after being delivered to INE district offices. The quick count is a statistical process that randomly selects a sample of votes to estimate voter turnout and candidate results, providing a preliminary indication of the election outcome. [154] [155]

The district count is the official process for recording election results. Tally sheets are manually recorded, and each electoral package is certified at the 300 district offices across the country, with citizen councils and party representatives overseeing the process. These packages may be reopened for a vote recount if necessary. This procedure determines the final election result, after which a majority certificate is issued, declaring the candidate with the most votes as the winner. [154]

After the district count, the validation of results and the proclamation of the "president-elect" become the exclusive responsibilities of the Federal Electoral Tribunal.

Results

About 60 million votes were cast in each election, with most of them being cast on election day. The election saw a lower turnout than the 2012 and 2018 presidential elections, at 61.05%. [156] Claudia Sheinbaum received 35.9 million votes, surpassing López Obrador's 2018 record of 30.1 million votes and making her the candidate who has received the most votes in Mexican history. [10] She also achieved the highest vote percentage of any candidate since 1982.

Sheinbaum carried 31 out of 32 states, with Aguascalientes being the only state where a plurality voted for Xóchitl Gálvez. [157] Sheinbaum managed to flip Guanajuato – the home state of former president Vicente Fox – and a state considered a bastion for the National Action Party since 2000; it was the only state that did not vote for López Obrador in 2018. [158]

Other than Aguascalientes, Gálvez placed second in all states except Campeche, where Jorge Máynez defeated her by five and a half points. [159] She also obtained 5.4 million fewer votes than the combined total of both Ricardo Anaya and José Antonio Meade, the PAN and PRI nominees for president in 2018 respectively; Gálvez obtained 16.5 million in total, while Anaya and Meade obtained 21.9 million votes combined. [160]

Máynez's performance in the election marked the best result for Citizens' Movement in its history. The party received 5.2 million more votes compared to 2018, when it received about 1 million votes – about a 500% increase. Citizens' Movement secured the third-highest number of votes among all parties in the election, behind Morena and the PAN. [161] [162]

President

CandidateParty or allianceVotes%
Claudia Sheinbaum Sigamos Haciendo Historia National Regeneration Movement 27,364,64946.61
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico 4,677,0577.97
Labor Party 3,882,8136.61
Total35,924,51961.18
Xóchitl Gálvez Fuerza y Corazón por México National Action Party 9,644,91816.43
Institutional Revolutionary Party 5,736,7599.77
Party of the Democratic Revolution 1,121,0201.91
Total16,502,69728.11
Jorge Máynez Citizens' Movement 6,204,71010.57
Non-registered candidates83,1140.14
Total58,715,040100.00
Valid votes58,715,04097.67
Invalid/blank votes1,400,1442.33
Total votes60,115,184100.00
Registered voters/turnout98,468,99461.05
Source: INE

By state

State Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Máynez
MC 		Write-ins Invalid/blank votesTotal Votes
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Aguascalientes 284,70642.73306,26245.9759,4988.931,5710.2414,2052.13666,242
Baja California 1,039,97366.65330,65721.19155,2629.952,9290.1931,5122.021,560,333
Baja California Sur 201,12659.14101,13629.7429,8258.774630.147,5392.22340,089
Campeche 275,31561.3069,54615.4894,28020.994320.109,5702.13449,143
Coahuila 853,43753.72617,20838.8585,8575.401,2030.0831,0041.951,588,709
Colima 188,09354.41103,58029.9646,09213.336980.207,2472.10345,710
Chiapas 1,769,44471.55412,84616.69183,1017.402,2690.09105,2984.262,472,958
Chihuahua 885,86953.86559,69034.03157,0779.552,2800.1439,7372.421,644,653
Mexico City 3,095,41355.201,937,15234.55467,9608.359,7230.1797,3031.745,607,551
Durango 455,23758.45250,28332.1356,1297.216980.0916,5632.13778,910
Guanajuato 1,302,70647.221,103,32639.99291,37910.564,6130.1757,0682.072,759,092
Guerrero 1,110,84471.66291,13018.7898,8276.381,4300.0947,8693.091,550,100
Hidalgo 1,043,87367.44307,05619.84159,89910.331,5860.1035,5472.301,547,961
Jalisco 1,720,92144.441,384,82535.76670,46217.318,6480.2287,4792.263,872,339
México 5,125,04060.602,241,26726.50905,52910.7110,8820.13174,4592.068,457,177
Michoacán 1,140,63055.07607,30129.32250,39112.093,8080.1869,0443.332,071,174
Morelos 631,52663.80211,16921.34126,29412.761,0750.1119,7131.99989,777
Nayarit 342,76263.27109,48720.2174,62113.777110.1314,1342.61541,715
Nuevo León 1,159,15945.21888,06434.64463,00218.063,3980.1350,2531.962,563,876
Oaxaca 1,441,21176.37271,98114.41124,6216.601,6330.0947,6312.521,887,077
Puebla 2,146,74165.19716,14821.74332,07110.084,1020.1293,8902.853,292,952
Querétaro 622,33551.08449,50136.89116,1179.532,9570.2427,5482.261,218,458
Quintana Roo 605,36173.17138,99216.8063,8907.721,3390.1617,7032.14827,285
San Luis Potosí 826,74660.51347,94825.47146,80210.752,0200.1542,6823.121,366,198
Sinaloa 872,24965.59326,36824.54103,1937.761,1280.0826,8682.021,329,806
Sonora 750,21963.92290,91724.79107,7599.181,4230.1223,4011.991,173,719
Tabasco 897,14380.53124,03711.1366,0185.931,1070.1025,6962.311,114,001
Tamaulipas 1,013,71562.33427,22826.27152,5289.381,8650.1130,9651.901,626,301
Tlaxcala 512,77469.20109,11214.73103,23613.938000.1115,0382.03740,960
Veracruz 2,441,41066.45846,84223.05294,6138.023,7690.1087,3632.383,673,997
Yucatán 779,85160.69390,64530.4088,0016.851,1770.0925,3011.971,284,975
Zacatecas 388,69050.35230,99329.92130,37616.891,3730.1820,5142.66771,946
Total35,924,51959.7616,502,69727.456,204,71010.3283,1140.141,400,1442.3360,115,184

Legislature

Senate

Mexcian Senate by Electoral Alliance 2024.svg 2024 Mexico Senate Election Results.svg
Party or allianceConstituencyParty-listTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Sigamos Haciendo Historia National Regeneration Movement 7,526,45313.192124,484,94342.481460+5
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico 2,298,7264.0345,357,9599.30314+8
Labor Party 1,215,1722.1303,214,7085.5829+3
Common candidates [b] 21,731,73738.0839––
Total32,772,08857.436433,057,61057.361983+14
Fuerza y Corazón por México National Action Party 1,148,9202.01110,107,53717.54622–1
Institutional Revolutionary Party 316,6360.5506,530,30511.33416+2
Party of the Democratic Revolution 76,0820.1301,363,0122.3602–6
Common candidates [c] 16,244,37328.4729––
Total17,786,01131.173018,000,85431.231040+2
Citizens' Movement 6,460,22011.3226,528,23811.3335–2
Non-registered candidates46,2300.08047,0920.08000
Total57,064,549100.009657,633,794100.00321280
Valid votes57,064,54996.0857,633,79496.05
Invalid/blank votes2,326,7423.922,369,9323.95
Total votes59,391,291100.0060,003,726100.00
Source: INE (PR)

Chamber of Deputies

Mexican GE 2024 Alliances.svg 2024 Mexico Deputies Election Results.svg
Party or allianceConstituencyParty-listTotal
seats		+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Sigamos Haciendo Historia National Regeneration Movement 3,686,9796.483724,286,31742.4075236+38
Ecologist Green Party of Mexico 676,0921.1904,993,9888.722077+34
Labor Party 507,6040.8903,254,7185.681351+14
Common candidates [d] 27,446,01448.26219––
Total32,316,68956.8225632,535,02356.80108364+86
Fuerza y Corazón por México National Action Party 372,6700.66310,049,37517.554072–42
Institutional Revolutionary Party 101,5740.1806,623,79611.562635–35
Party of the Democratic Revolution 20,3740.0401,449,6602.5301–14
Common candidates [e] 17,493,42530.7639––
Total17,988,04331.634218,122,83131.6466108–91
Citizens' Movement 6,446,53711.3416,497,40411.342627+4
Independents72,0120.13172,0120.1301+1
Non-registered candidates48,8710.09049,3290.09000
Total56,872,152100.0030057,276,599100.002005000
Valid votes56,872,15296.3457,276,59996.32
Invalid/blank votes2,162,1713.662,189,8693.68
Total votes59,034,323100.0059,466,468100.00
Source: INE (PR)

Aftermath

Election night

Claudia Sheinbaum during her victory speech at the Zocalo. Claudia Sheinbaum discurso de la victoria.jpg
Claudia Sheinbaum during her victory speech at the Zócalo.

At 11:50 PM CST on 2 June, the INE's president, Guadalupe Taddei, declared that according to the INE's Quick Count, the winner of the presidential contest was Claudia Sheinbaum. [163] The Quick Count also projected that Sigamos Haciendo Historia would keep its control of the Congress of the Union, with a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies and a probable supermajority in the Senate. [163]

Shortly after the INE's announcement, Xóchitl Gálvez and Jorge Máynez called Sheinbaum to congratulate her on her victory. [164] During their respective press conferences, both Gálvez and Máynez publicly conceded, with Máynez highlighting that the results represented the best performance for Citizens' Movement. [165] [166] However, Gálvez later described the electoral campaign as an "unequal competition against the entire state apparatus dedicated to favouring its candidate", adding that she would challenge the result. [167]

Reacting to the result on X, Sheinbaum said that she would not let the electorate down. [168] She later addressed her supporters at the Zócalo in Mexico City, who had gathered at the plaza to celebrate her victory. [169] President Andrés Manuel López Obrador described Sheinbaum's victory as historic and reiterated his pledge not to interfere in her incoming administration. [170]

Final vote counts and certification

Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador showing Sheinbaum's margin of victory in one of his mananeras, 25 July 2024. Resultados electorales presidencia de Mexico 2024.jpg
Andrés Manuel López Obrador showing Sheinbaum's margin of victory in one of his mañaneras, 25 July 2024.

The district count started on 5 June at 8:00 CST. The INE announced it would recount ballots from 60% of the polling stations, a decrease from the 75% that were recounted during the 2018 elections. [171] Xóchitl Gálvez requested for 80% of the ballots to be recounted, asserting there were irregularities at some polling stations. [172]

On 6 June, the district count concluded for the presidential election, increasing Sheinbaum's margin of victory by 0.85%. [173] On 9 June, constituency seats and final vote count results for each district were released by the INE. [174] Projections using the final vote counts to calculate party-list deputies and senators confirmed a supermajority in the Chamber of Deputies but not in the Senate, falling three seats short of the two-thirds majority needed to change the Constitution. [174] [175]

On 15 August, after all challenges to the presidential election were resolved, Sheinbaum's victory was officially certified, and she received the certificate designating her as president-elect. [176] [177]

On 21 August, the INE's Commission on Prerogatives and Political Parties unanimously approved a draft assigning party-list deputies and senators. [178]

Party registrations

On 10 June, for the first time in the party's three-decade-long history, the INE notified the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) that it had failed to meet the required 3% of the popular vote to keep its registration as a national political party. [179] On 19 June, an auditor was chosen to oversee the liquidation of the party, [180] and on 19 September, the INE declared that the PRD had lost its registration. [181]

Lawsuits

After the election, the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and Citizens' Movement (MC) collectively filed 240 challenges against the presidential election results. The majority of these challenges were spearheaded by the PRD, which sought to annul millions of ballots to meet the 3% threshold required to maintain its registration as a national political party. [182] However, by 8 August, the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary had rejected all of the challenges. [183]

For the legislative elections, all political parties challenged the results for deputies and senators, citing allegations of exceeding campaign spending limits, vote buying, voter intimidation, and various irregularities in vote counting. [184] Most of these challenges, when presented to the Electoral Tribunal of the Federal Judiciary, were rejected, and any rulings from lower courts did not alter the overall election results. [184] The only exception was in the 23rd district of the State of Mexico, where Luis Alberto Carballo Gutiérrez's victory certificate was annulled due to his ineligibility, as he was a food debtor, [185] resulting in his alternate assuming the position instead. [186]

Reactions

Financial markets

Amid concerns that a supermajority in both chambers of Congress would lead to anti-market reforms, the peso dropped nearly 4% against the U.S. dollar following initial reporting; [187] by the end of the week, it was down 10% from its pre-election level. [188] From less than 17 to the U.S. dollar on 2 June, the peso fell over the nine days following the election to trade at 18.50 on 11 June, [189] still considerably stronger than the all-time low of over 25 seen at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. [190] On 3 June, the two largest ETFs focused on Mexico (iShares MSCI Mexico ETF EWW and Franklin FTSE Mexico ETF FLMX) dropped more than 10%, the biggest daily decline in four years. [191] The Mexican Stock Exchange ended the 3 June trading day down 6.1%, while the MSCI Mexico Index dropped 8.8%. [192]

International

Notes

  1. ↑ Gálvez, while not officially affiliated with the PAN, secured the nomination with the party's support as an external candidate. [1] Additionally, according to the coalition agreement, the constituent parties of Fuerza y Corazón por México recognize the presidential nominee as part of the PAN. [2]
  2. ↑ Of the elected candidates, 25 belong to the National Regeneration Movement, 7 to the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico, and 7 to the Labor Party.
  3. ↑ Of the elected candidates, 15 belong to the National Action Party, 12 to the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and 2 to the Party of the Democratic Revolution.
  4. ↑ Of the elected candidates, 124 belong to the National Regeneration Movement, 57 to the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico, and 38 to the Labor Party.
  5. ↑ Of the elected candidates, 29 belong to the National Action Party, 9 to the Institutional Revolutionary Party, and 1 to the Party of the Democratic Revolution.

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References

  1. ↑ "Xóchitl Gálvez se aleja de la CDMX: Marko Cortés la "destapa" para la candidatura presidencial". El Heraldo de México (in Spanish). 14 June 2023. Archived from the original on 29 February 2024. Retrieved 29 February 2024.
  2. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on 26 February 2024. Retrieved 29 February 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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  9. ↑ "Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum as first female, Jewish president". Israel Hayom . 3 June 2024. Archived from the original on 4 June 2024. Retrieved 3 June 2024.
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  11. ↑ "Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum sworn in as North America's first female head of state". Reuters. 1 October 2024. Retrieved 1 October 2024.
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