Opinion polling for Canadian federal elections |
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Opinion polls |
2011 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
2015 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
2019 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
2021 |
Opinion polls • By constituency |
Next election |
Opinion polls |
Various polling organizations have conducted opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 45th Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 [4] | [1] | 14 | 37 | 8 | 3 | 24 | 2 | 12 | ±5.2 pp | 555 | IVR |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 [4] | [2] | 46 | 28 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | ±4.7 pp | 430 | IVR |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2022 [4] | [3] | 38.0 | 41.7 | 9.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 5.8 | ±4.2 pp | 555 | IVR |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | December 8, 2022 [4] | [4] | 47.5 | 38.8 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 2 | 1.5 | ±5.9 pp | 279 | IVR |
Mainstreet Research | October 27, 2022 [4] | [5] | 43.5 | 40.8 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 1.2 | 1.9 | N/A | ±4.3 pp | 521 | IVR |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | June 14, 2023 [4] | [6] | 36 | 36 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 5 | ±4.5 pp | 473 | IVR |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | June 2024 [4] | [7] | 35 | 36 | 9.9 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 11 | N/A | 257 | IVR |
Polling Firm | Last Date of Polling | Link | Liberal | Cons. | BQ | NDP | Green | PPC | Others | Undecided | Margin of Error [1] | Sample Size [2] | Polling Method [3] |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research | July 9, 2024 [4] | [8] | 29 | 14 | 26 | 25 | 3 | 1 | — | — | ±5.4 pp | 329 | IVR |
Notes
An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.
A straw poll, straw vote, or straw ballot is an ad hoc or unofficial vote. It is used to show the popular opinion on a certain matter, and can be used to help politicians know the majority opinion and help them decide what to say in order to gain votes.
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. A similar poll conducted before actual voters have voted is called an entrance poll. Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take many hours to count.
The 2007 Ontario general election was held on October 10, 2007, to elect members (MPPs) of the 39th Legislative Assembly of the Province of Ontario, Canada. The Liberals under Premier Dalton McGuinty won the election with a majority government, winning 71 out of a possible 107 seats with 42.2% of the popular vote. The election saw the third-lowest voter turnout in Ontario provincial elections, setting a then record for the lowest voter turnout with 52.8% of people who were eligible voted. This broke the previous record of 54.7% in the 1923 election, but would end up being surpassed in the 2011 and 2022 elections.
An open-access poll is a type of opinion poll in which a nonprobability sample of participants self-select into participation. The term includes call-in, mail-in, and some online polls.
Gallup, Inc. is an American multinational analytics and advisory company based in Washington, D.C. Founded by George Gallup in 1935, the company became known for its public opinion polls conducted worldwide. Gallup provides analytics and management consulting to organizations globally. In addition the company offers educational consulting, the CliftonStrengths assessment and associated products, and business and management books published by its Gallup Press unit.
In the run up to the general election on 7 May 2015, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
Survation is a polling and market research agency based in London, England. Survation have been conducting research surveys since 2010. Surveys are conducted via telephone, online panel and face to face as well as omnibus research for a broad range of clients including television, newspapers, charities, lobby groups, trade unions, law firms and political parties. Damian Lyons Lowe is the company founder and Chief Executive.
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2011 Canadian federal election leading up to the 2015 Canadian federal election, which was held on October 19, 2015. For riding-specific polls see 2015 constituency polls.
Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2015 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
The referendum on EU membership took place on 23 June 2016. Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum was ongoing in the months between the announcement of a referendum and the referendum polling day. Polls on the general principle of the UK's membership of the European Union were carried out for a number of years prior to the referendum. Opinion polls of voters in general tended to show roughly equal proportions in favour of remaining and leaving. Polls of business leaders, scientists, and lawyers showed majorities in favour of remaining. Among non-British citizens in other EU member states, polling suggested that a majority were in favour of the UK remaining in the EU in principle, but that a similarly sized majority believed that if the UK were only able to remain in the EU on renegotiated terms then it should leave.
Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2011 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
Opinion polling on Scottish independence is continually being carried out by various organisations. This article concerns the nearly 300 polls carried out since the 2014 Scottish independence referendum. Polling conducted before the referendum can be found here. Polls listed here, except as noted, are by members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center (SUPRC) is an opinion polling center at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.
Mainstreet Research is a Canadian market research and polling firm with headquarters in Toronto, and offices in Montreal and Ottawa. The company was founded in 2010 by Quito Maggi, who currently serves as its president.
Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2019 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted from the 2019 Canadian federal election leading up to the 2021 Canadian federal election, which took place on September 20, 2021. For riding-specific polls see the list of 2021 constituency polls.
Various polling organizations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2021 Canadian federal election. The results of publicized opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.
This table provides a list of scientific, nationwide public opinion polls conducted from the 2021 Canadian federal election leading up to the 45th Canadian federal election.
In the run up to the 2024 Pakistani general election, various organisations have been carrying out opinion polling to gauge voting intention throughout Pakistan and the approval rating of the civilian Pakistani government, first led by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf until 10 April 2022 and then by Shehbaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (N), with the latter government being supported by the Pakistan Democratic Movement and the Pakistan People's Party. The results of such polls are displayed in this article. The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 25 July 2018, to the present day.
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