Solar minimum

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Three recent solar cycles Solar-cycle-data.png
Three recent solar cycles

Solar minimum is the regular period of least solar activity in the Sun's 11-year solar cycle. During solar minimum, sunspot and solar flare activity diminishes, and often does not occur for days at a time. On average, the solar cycle takes about 11 years to go from one solar minimum to the next, with duration observed varying from 9 to 14 years. The date of the minimum is described by a smoothed average over 12 months of sunspot activity, so identifying the date of the solar minimum usually can only happen 6 months after the minimum takes place.

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Solar minimum is contrasted with the solar maximum, when hundreds of sunspots may occur.

Solar minimum and solar maximum

Solar minima and maxima are the two extremes of the Sun's 11-year and 400-year activity cycle. [1] At a maximum, the Sun is peppered with sunspots, solar flares erupt, and the Sun hurls billion-ton clouds of electrified gas into space. Sky watchers may see more auroras, and space agencies must monitor radiation storms for astronaut protection. Power outages, satellite malfunctions, communication disruptions, and GPS receiver malfunctions are just a few of the things that can happen during a solar maximum. [2]

At a solar minimum, there are fewer sunspots and solar flares subside. Sometimes, days or weeks go by without a spot.

Predicting solar minimum cycles

Their non-linear character makes predictions of solar activity very difficult. [3] The solar minimum is characterized by a period of decreased solar activity with few, if any, sunspots. Scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) also developed a computer model of solar dynamics (Solar dynamo) for more accurate predictions and have confidence in the forecast based upon a series of test runs with the newly developed model simulating the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98% accuracy. [4] In hindsight the prediction proved to be wildly inaccurate and not representative of the observed sunspot numbers. [5]

During 2008–09 NASA scientists noted that the Sun is undergoing a "deep solar minimum," stating: "There were no sunspots observed on 266 of [2008's] 366 days (73%). Prompted by these numbers, some observers suggested that the solar cycle had hit bottom in 2008. Sunspot counts for 2009 dropped even lower. As of September 14, 2009 there were no sunspots on 206 of the year's 257 days (80%). Solar physicist Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center came to the following conclusion: "We're experiencing a very deep solar minimum." His statement was confirmed by other specialists in the field. "This is the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century," agreed sunspot expert David Hathaway of the National Space Science and Technology Center NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center. [6] However, the activity is still at a higher level than at a grand solar minimum.

Grand solar minima and maxima

Grand solar minima occur when several solar cycles exhibit lesser than average activity for decades or centuries. Solar cycles still occur during these grand solar minimum periods but are at a lower intensity than usual. The grand minima form a special mode of the solar dynamo operation. [7]

400 year history of sunspot numbers. Sunspot Numbers.png
400 year history of sunspot numbers.
Solar minimum and maximum events with approximate dates
EventStartEnd
Homeric Minimum [8] 950 BC800 BC
Roman Warm Period 250 BCAD 400
Medieval maximum 1 (see Medieval Warm Period)9501040
Oort minimum (see Medieval Warm Period)10401080
Medieval maximum 2 (see Medieval Warm Period)11001250
Wolf minimum 12801350
Spörer Minimum 14501550
Maunder Minimum 16451715
Dalton Minimum 17901820
Modern Maximum 19142008

A list of historical Grand minima of solar activity [9] includes also Grand minima ca. 690 AD, 360 BC, 770 BC, 1390 BC, 2860 BC, 3340 BC, 3500 BC, 3630 BC, 3940 BC, 4230 BC, 4330 BC, 5260 BC, 5460 BC, 5620 BC, 5710 BC, 5990 BC, 6220 BC, 6400 BC, 7040 BC, 7310 BC, 7520 BC, 8220 BC, 9170 BC.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sunspot</span> Temporary phenomena on the Suns photosphere

Sunspots are phenomena on the Sun's photosphere that appear as temporary spots that are darker than the surrounding areas. They are regions of reduced surface temperature caused by concentrations of magnetic flux that inhibit convection. Sunspots appear within active regions, usually in pairs of opposite magnetic polarity. Their number varies according to the approximately 11-year solar cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Maunder Minimum</span> Period of low solar activity from 1645 to 1715

The Maunder Minimum, also known as the "prolonged sunspot minimum", was a period around 1645 to 1715 during which sunspots became exceedingly rare. During a 28-year period (1672–1699) within the minimum, observations revealed fewer than 50 sunspots. This contrasts with the typical 40,000–50,000 sunspots seen in modern times over a similar timespan.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar flare</span> Eruption of electromagnetic radiation

A solar flare is a relatively intense, localized emission of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere. Flares occur in active regions and are often, but not always, accompanied by coronal mass ejections, solar particle events, and other eruptive solar phenomena. The occurrence of solar flares varies with the 11-year solar cycle.

Starspots are stellar phenomena, so-named by analogy with sunspots. Spots as small as sunspots have not been detected on other stars, as they would cause undetectably small fluctuations in brightness. The commonly observed starspots are in general much larger than those on the Sun: up to about 30% of the stellar surface may be covered, corresponding to starspots 100 times larger than those on the Sun.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar maximum</span> Regular period of greatest solar activity

Solar maximum is the regular period of greatest solar activity during the Sun's 11-year solar cycle. During solar maximum, large numbers of sunspots appear, and the solar irradiance output grows by about 0.07%. On average, the solar cycle takes about 11 years to go from one solar maximum to the next, with duration observed varying from 9 to 14 years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle</span> Periodic change in the Suns activity

The solar cycle, also known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, sunspot cycle, or Schwabe cycle, is a nearly periodic 11-year change in the Sun's activity measured in terms of variations in the number of observed sunspots on the Sun's surface. Over the period of a solar cycle, levels of solar radiation and ejection of solar material, the number and size of sunspots, solar flares, and coronal loops all exhibit a synchronized fluctuation from a period of minimum activity to a period of a maximum activity back to a period of minimum activity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wolf number</span> Measure of sunspot activity

The Wolf number is a quantity that measures the number of sunspots and groups of sunspots present on the surface of the Sun.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gnevyshev–Ohl rule</span>

The Gnevyshev–Ohl rule is an empirical rule according to which the sums of Wolf's sunspot numbers over odd cycles are highly correlated with the sums over preceding even cycles and the correlation is lower if even cycles and preceding odd ones are taken. Sometimes a simplified formulation of the rule is used, according to which the sums over odd cycles exceeds those of the preceding even cycles . The rule breaks down under certain conditions. In particular, it inverts sign across the Dalton minimum, but can be restored with the "lost cycle" in the end of the 18th century. The nature of the GO rule is still unclear.

A Forbush decrease is a rapid decrease in the observed galactic cosmic ray intensity following a coronal mass ejection (CME). It occurs due to the magnetic field of the plasma solar wind sweeping some of the galactic cosmic rays away from Earth. The term Forbush decrease was named after the American physicist Scott E. Forbush, who studied cosmic rays in the 1930s and 1940s.

The solar dynamo is a physical process that generates the Sun's magnetic field. It is explained with a variant of the dynamo theory. A naturally occurring electric generator in the Sun's interior produces electric currents and a magnetic field, following the laws of Ampère, Faraday and Ohm, as well as the laws of fluid dynamics, which together form the laws of magnetohydrodynamics. The detailed mechanism of the solar dynamo is not known and is the subject of current research.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 24</span> Solar activity from December 2008 to December 2019

Solar cycle 24 is the most recently completed solar cycle, the 24th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2008 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 2.2, and ended in December 2019. Activity was minimal until early 2010. It reached its maximum in April 2014 with a 23 months smoothed sunspot number of 81.8. This maximum value was substantially lower than other recent solar cycles, down to a level which had not been seen since cycles 12 to 15 (1878-1923).

Superflares are very strong explosions observed on stars with energies up to ten thousand times that of typical solar flares. The stars in this class satisfy conditions which should make them solar analogues, and would be expected to be stable over very long time scales. The original nine candidates were detected by a variety of methods. No systematic study was possible until the launch of the Kepler space telescope, which monitored a very large number of solar-type stars with very high accuracy for an extended period. This showed that a small proportion of stars had violent outbursts. In many cases there were multiple events on the same star. Younger stars were more likely to flare than old ones, but strong events were seen on stars as old as the Sun.

Solar cycle 4 was the fourth solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. The solar cycle lasted 13.6 years, beginning in September 1784 and ending in April 1798. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 235.3, and the starting minimum was 15.9.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 23</span> Solar activity from August 1996 to December 2008

Solar cycle 23 was the 23rd solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. The solar cycle lasted 12.3 years, beginning in August 1996 and ending in December 2008. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 180.3, and the starting minimum was 11.2. During the minimum transit from solar cycle 23 to 24, there were a total of 817 days with no sunspots. Compared to the last several solar cycles, it was fairly average in terms of activity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 25</span> Predicted Sun activity 2019 to about 2030

Solar cycle 25 is the current solar cycle, the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8. It is expected to continue until about 2030.

Solar observation is the scientific endeavor of studying the Sun and its behavior and relation to the Earth and the remainder of the Solar System. Deliberate solar observation began thousands of years ago. That initial era of direct observation gave way to telescopes in the 1600s followed by satellites in the twentieth century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar phenomena</span> Natural phenomena within the Suns atmosphere

Solar phenomena are natural phenomena which occur within the atmosphere of the Sun. They take many forms, including solar wind, radio wave flux, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, coronal heating and sunspots.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar activity and climate</span> Field of scientific study

Patterns of solar irradiance and solar variation have been a main driver of climate change over the millions to billions of years of the geologic time scale.

References

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