Unexplained volcanic eruption

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An unexplained volcanic eruption is a major volcanic event known primarily through indirect evidence such as sulfate spikes in polar ice cores, tree ring anomalies, and historical climate impacts. They are sometimes referred to as mystery volcanic eruptions because the exact source of the material is unknown. Because evidence for them is indirect, precise details are unknown but some of these events were later identified through further research.

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These eruptions can have significant climate impacts by creating a volcanic winter event where material from the eruption decreases the amount of solar energy reaching the earth for a period. These global cooling episodes can have significant societal impacts. Many of these unexplained eruptions are believed to have occurred in remote tropical regions where there are limited historical records from the period as well as limited modern scientific data on many volcanoes.

Detection and evidence

Sulfate concentrations in ice cores from Greenland showing a spike around 1810 from an unexplained eruption. Greenland sulfate.png
Sulfate concentrations in ice cores from Greenland showing a spike around 1810 from an unexplained eruption.

There are many global cooling events associated with volcanic eruptions. The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora was one of these, leading to the Year Without a Summer in 1816. [1] Other known global cooling events do not have a well-known source but evidence from ice cores in Antarctica and Greenland have led scientists to conclude that some were also caused by large volcanic eruptions. In some cases, global temperatures are estimated to have cooled by as much as 1ºC (1.8ºF). [2]

Unexplained volcanic eruptions have to be quite large to produce global evidence. Most are generally believed to be in the tropics because large eruptions at low latitude are more capable of distributing tephra and emissions globally throughout the atmosphere. [3]

For some of these eruptions, the global cooling event associated with such an eruption was known before evidence for it originating from a volcano was discovered. Cooling caused by the 1808 mystery eruption, for example, was believed to have been natural variation in the Little Ice Age before a sulfate spike was discovered in ice cores in the early-1990s. [4]

After these eruptions are detected in ice cores they are often able to be corroborated with tree ring data, especially in long-living species such as bristlecone pines in the Western United States and high-latitude trees in Siberia and Finland. [5] Additional insight can be gained from contemporary accounts of unusual atmospheric phenomena. These can sometimes narrow the geographic scope of the search for the relevant volcano. [6]

A few of these eruptions were later pinned down to a specific volcano after their discovery as more evidence was discovered. The 1257 Samalas eruption is one of these. Evidence for it was discovered in ice cores in the 1980s but the exact source was not determined until the early-2010s as tree ring evidence from Japan and contemporary writings on palm leaves in Indonesia were explored. [7] [8] Another such event in 1831 was identified as originating from Zavaritski Caldera in what is now the Russian Far East. [9] [10]

Notable eruptions

19th Century

A cooling period in 1809 has been linked to a sulfate spike in ice cores early in that year. It has been proposed that a series of eruptions occurred in 1808 to cause this, with possible sources in Antarctica, Indonesia, and Alaska. [11] The amplitude of the cooling was similar to that observed in the 1816 Year Without a Summer caused by the VEI-7 eruption of Mount Tambora the year before. [6] [12]

Accounts from Francisco José de Caldas in Colombia and Hipólito Unanue in Peru described a dry fog in December 1808 that could have been sulfuric acid aerosols leading researchers to conclude the tropical eruption related to this cooling occurred within seven days of December 4, 1808 and narrowing down the geographic range to between Indonesia and South America. [6] There are oral histories of volcanic eruptions from Polynesians and other nearby indigenous people around this time but none with the level of specificity needed to determine the origin of this eruption. [13]

15th Century

There are two mystery eruptions from the 15th Century that led to the second pulse of the Little Ice Age which started in the 13th Century as a result of the 1257 Samalas eruption and another unexplained eruption. [14] [15] The event in 1452 or 1453 produced a stronger sulfate spike in Greenlandic ice cores compared to those in Antarctica, leading researchers to hypothesize that the eruption was in the low latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. [16] Crop failures were noted throughout the Northern Hemisphere and frost damage was evident on bristlecone pines in the Western United States during this time period. [17]

The second eruption happened 1458. This was originally also estimated to have occurred around 1452 but improved resolution in the ice core data led to the revision to 1458. This has the highest sulfate concentration in the last 700 years but the spike is stronger in Antarctica indicating the eruption was likely in the Southern Hemisphere. [18] [16] Theories for the origin include Kuwae, which is a former landmass near Tongoa that was destroyed by a volcanic eruption in the 15th Century and features in Tongoan folklore. [19]

6th Century

A volcanic winter began in 536 that was reinforced by subsequent possible eruptions in 540 and 547. [20] It is among the most significant cooling episodes in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years and triggered the Late Antique Little Ice Age. [21] In addition to ice cores, sediment cores were useful in narrowing down the time period to 536. [22] Contemporary sources such as the Roman statesman Cassiodorus, Michael the Syrian, Irish annals, Chinese records, and others describe diminished sunlight and crop failures. [23] [24] [25] [26]

Climate and societal impacts

One of the strongest signals for an unattributed volcanic eruption can be found in the climate record using ice cores, sediment cores, and tree ring data. The volcanic winter of 536 is the strongest of these with cooling of 2.5ºC (4.5ºF) described. [20] The larger triggered longer-term cooling episodes lasting decades to centuries, often augmented by subsequent eruptions that may come from a mix of unknown and known sources. [21]

Cooling of this magnitude has caused famines that are recorded in the historical record due to widespread crop failures. Contemporary records frequently mention issues such as a "failure of bread," decreased warmth from the sun, and persistent dry fog. [27] [6]

Historians have attributed these famines to broader societal upheavals with varying degrees of acceptance within the broader academic community. A book written by David Keys attempts to link the 536 event to the Plague of Justinian, the fall of the Gupta Empire, and the fall of Teotihuacan. [28] These grander attributions have failed to gain mainstream recognition with archaeologist Ken Dark criticizing the quality of the evidence for all of these events while acknowledging the notability of changes in the world at the time. [29]

The 1452/1453 event brought significant climatic changes just before the fall of Constantinople to the Ottoman Empire and may have played a role through decreased food supply and severe weather conditions. [30] Halley's Comet appeared in 1456 to be red with a golden tail. [31] This event, plus the ones in 1458 and 1808 likely amplified the Little Ice Age, along with other known events like the 1815 eruption of Tambora. [4]

References

  1. ↑ "1816 - The Year Without Summer (U.S. National Park Service)". www.nps.gov. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  2. ↑ Esper, Jan; Büntgen, Ulf; Hartl-Meier, Claudia; Oppenheimer, Clive; Schneider, Lea (2017-05-06). "Northern Hemisphere temperature anomalies during the 1450s period of ambiguous volcanic forcing". Bulletin of Volcanology. 79 (6): 41. Bibcode:2017BVol...79...41E. doi:10.1007/s00445-017-1125-9. ISSN   1432-0819.
  3. ↑ Sigl, Michael; Toohey, Matthew; McConnell, Joseph R.; Cole-Dai, Jihong; Severi, Mirko (2022-07-12). "Volcanic stratospheric sulfur injections and aerosol optical depth during the Holocene (past 11 500 years) from a bipolar ice-core array". Earth System Science Data. 14 (7): 3167–3196. Bibcode:2022ESSD...14.3167S. doi: 10.5194/essd-14-3167-2022 . ISSN   1866-3508.
  4. 1 2 Dai, Jihong; Mosley-Thompson, Ellen; Thompson, Lonnie G. (1991). "Ice core evidence for an explosive tropical volcanic eruption 6 years preceding Tambora". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 96 (D9): 17361–17366. Bibcode:1991JGR....9617361D. doi:10.1029/91JD01634. ISSN   2156-2202.
  5. ↑ Salzer, Matthew W.; Hughes, Malcolm K. (January 2007). "Bristlecone pine tree rings and volcanic eruptions over the last 5000 yr". Quaternary Research. 67 (1): 57–68. Bibcode:2007QuRes..67...57S. doi:10.1016/j.yqres.2006.07.004. ISSN   0033-5894.
  6. 1 2 3 4 Guevara-Murua, A.; Williams, C. A.; Hendy, E. J.; Rust, A. C.; Cashman, K. V. (2014-09-16). "Observations of a stratospheric aerosol veil from a tropical volcanic eruption in December 1808: is this the Unknown ∼1809 eruption?". Climate of the Past. 10 (5): 1707–1722. Bibcode:2014CliPa..10.1707G. doi: 10.5194/cp-10-1707-2014 . ISSN   1814-9324.
  7. ↑ Hamilton, Garry (2013-10-19). "Mystery blast: The lost volcano that changed the world". New Scientist. 220 (2939): 38–41. Bibcode:2013NewSc.220...38H. doi:10.1016/S0262-4079(13)62487-2. ISSN   0262-4079.
  8. ↑ Klemetti, Erik. "Samalas in Indonesia Identified as Source of the 1257 A.D. 'Missing' Eruption". Discover Magazine. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  9. ↑ Hutchison, William; Sugden, Patrick; Burke, Andrea; Abbott, Peter; Ponomareva, Vera V.; Dirksen, Oleg; Portnyagin, Maxim V.; MacInnes, Breanyn; Bourgeois, Joanne; Fitzhugh, Ben; Verkerk, Magali; Aubry, Thomas J.; Engwell, Samantha L.; Svensson, Anders; Chellman, Nathan J. (2025-01-07). "The 1831 CE mystery eruption identified as Zavaritskii caldera, Simushir Island (Kurils)". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 122 (1) e2416699122. doi:10.1073/pnas.2416699122. PMC   11725861 . PMID   39793052.
  10. ↑ Klemetti, Erik. "Another Mystery Volcanic Eruption Source Has Been Found". Discover Magazine. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  11. ↑ Plunkett, Gill; Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Pilcher, Jonathan R.; Chellman, Nathan J. (2023-02-01). "The significance of volcanic ash in Greenland ice cores during the Common Era". Quaternary Science Reviews. 301 107936. Bibcode:2023QSRv..30107936P. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107936. ISSN   0277-3791.
  12. ↑ "Tambora". Global Volcanism Program . Smithsonian Institution.
  13. ↑ "Savo Volcano, Solomon Islands | John Seach". volcanolive.com. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  14. ↑ Miller, Gifford H.; Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Zhong, Yafang; Larsen, Darren J.; Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.; Holland, Marika M.; Bailey, David A.; Refsnider, Kurt A.; Lehman, Scott J.; Southon, John R.; Anderson, Chance; Björnsson, Helgi; Thordarson, Thorvaldur (2012). "Abrupt onset of the Little Ice Age triggered by volcanism and sustained by sea-ice/ocean feedbacks". Geophysical Research Letters. 39 (2) 2011GL050168. Bibcode:2012GeoRL..39.2708M. doi:10.1029/2011GL050168. ISSN   1944-8007.
  15. ↑ Lavigne, Franck; Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Guillet, Sébastien; Robert, Vincent; Lahitte, Pierre; Oppenheimer, Clive; Stoffel, Markus; Vidal, Céline M.; Surono; Pratomo, Indyo; Wassmer, Patrick; Hajdas, Irka; Hadmoko, Danang Sri; de Belizal, Edouard (2013-10-15). "Source of the great A.D. 1257 mystery eruption unveiled, Samalas volcano, Rinjani Volcanic Complex, Indonesia". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 110 (42): 16742–16747. Bibcode:2013PNAS..11016742L. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1307520110 . PMC   3801080 . PMID   24082132.
  16. 1 2 Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Layman, Lawrence; Maselli, Olivia; McGwire, Ken; Pasteris, Daniel; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Vinther, Bo; Edwards, Ross; Mulvaney, Robert; Kipfstuhl, Sepp (2013). "A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (3): 1151–1169. Bibcode:2013JGRD..118.1151S. doi:10.1029/2012JD018603. ISSN   2169-8996.
  17. ↑ "release 1993 1543". www2.jpl.nasa.gov. Archived from the original on 2003-02-22. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  18. ↑ Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Self, Stephen; Witter, Jeffrey B.; Steffenson, J. P.; Clausen, Henrik Brink; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Johnsen, Sigfus; Mayewski, Paul A.; Ammann, Caspar (2006). "The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae eruption signal derived from multiple ice core records: Greatest volcanic sulfate event of the past 700 years". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 111 (D12) 2005JD006710. Bibcode:2006JGRD..11112107G. doi:10.1029/2005JD006710. ISSN   2156-2202.
  19. ↑ Monzier, Michel; Robin, Claude; Eissen, Jean-Philippe (1994-01-01). "Kuwae (≈ 1425 A.D.): the forgotten caldera". Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 59 (3): 207–218. Bibcode:1994JVGR...59..207M. doi:10.1016/0377-0273(94)90091-4. ISSN   0377-0273.
  20. 1 2 Harper, Kyle (2017). The Fate of Rome. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. p. 253. ISBN   978-0-691-16683-4.
  21. 1 2 Peregrine, Peter N (2020-11-01). "Climate and social change at the start of the Late Antique Little Ice Age". The Holocene. 30 (11): 1643–1648. Bibcode:2020Holoc..30.1643P. doi:10.1177/0959683620941079. ISSN   0959-6836.
  22. ↑ Abbott, D. H.; Biscaye, P.; Cole-Dai, J.; Breger, D. (December 2008). "Magnetite and Silicate Spherules from the GISP2 Core at the 536 A.D. Horizon". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. 2008: 1454. Bibcode:2008AGUFMPP41B1454A.
  23. ↑ Cassiodorus (1886). The Letters of Cassiodorus. Translated by Hodgkin, Thomas. London, England: Henry Frowde. pp. 518–520. See: "25. Senator, Praetorian Praefect, to his deputy Ambrosius, an Illustris."
  24. ↑ Ochoa, George; Hoffman, Jennifer; Tin, Tina (2005). Climate: the force that shapes our world and the future of life on earth. Emmaus, Pennsylvania: Rodale. p. 71. ISBN   978-1-59486-288-5.
  25. ↑ "Annals of the Four Masters". celt.ucc.ie. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  26. ↑ Ochoa, George; Hoffman, Jennifer; Tin, Tina (2005). Climate: the force that shapes our world and the future of life on earth. Emmaus, Pennsylvania: Rodale. p. 71. ISBN   978-1-59486-288-5.
  27. ↑ Cassiodorus (1886). The Letters of Cassiodorus. Translated by Hodgkin, Thomas. London, England: Henry Frowde. pp. 518–520. See: "25. Senator, Praetorian Praefect, to his deputy Ambrosius, an Illustris."
  28. ↑ Keys, David Patrick (2000). Catastrophe: an investigation into the origins of the modern world. New York: Ballantine Pub. ISBN   978-0-345-40876-1.
  29. ↑ Dark, Ken (November 1999). "Jumbling old events with modern myths". British Archaeology (49). ISSN   1357-4442. Archived from the original on 25 February 2006. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
  30. ↑ "JPL Confirms 15th Century Volcanic Eruption". NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). Archived from the original on 2025-09-28. Retrieved 2025-12-22.
  31. ↑ Cole-Dai, Jihong; Ferris, David G.; Lanciki, Alyson L.; Savarino, Joël; Thiemens, Mark H.; McConnell, Joseph R. (2013). "Two likely stratospheric volcanic eruptions in the 1450s C.E. found in a bipolar, subannually dated 800 year ice core record". Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 118 (14): 7459–7466. Bibcode:2013JGRD..118.7459C. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50587. ISSN   2169-8996.
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