Volcanic winter of 536

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Tombstone in the chapel of Filippo e Giacomo, Nosedo, dated to CE 536 (the second year after the consulship of Decius Paulinus). SS Filippo e Giacomo, Nosedo. Lapide del 536 d.c. Photo by Giovanni Dall'Orto, 3 July 2022 2.jpg
Tombstone in the chapel of Filippo e Giacomo, Nosedo, dated to CE 536 (the second year after the consulship of Decius Paulinus).

The volcanic winter of 536 was the most severe and protracted episode of climatic cooling in the Northern Hemisphere in the last 2,000 years. [1] The volcanic winter was caused by at least three simultaneous eruptions of uncertain origin, with several possible locations proposed in various continents. Most contemporary accounts of the volcanic winter are from authors in Constantinople [ citation needed ], the capital of the Eastern Roman Empire, although the impact of the cooler temperatures extended beyond Europe. Modern scholarship has determined that in early CE 536 (or possibly late 535), an eruption ejected massive amounts of sulfate aerosols into the atmosphere, which reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth's surface and cooled the atmosphere for several years. In March 536, Constantinople began experiencing darkened skies and lower temperatures.

Contents

Summer temperatures in 536 fell by as much as 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) below normal in Europe. The lingering impact of the volcanic winter of 536 was augmented in 539–540, when another volcanic eruption caused summer temperatures to decline as much as 2.7 °C (4.9 °F) below normal in Europe. [2] There is evidence of still another volcanic eruption in 547 which would have extended the cool period. The volcanic eruptions caused crop failures, and were accompanied by the Plague of Justinian, famine, and millions of deaths and initiated the Late Antique Little Ice Age, which lasted from 536 to 560. [3]

The medieval scholar Michael McCormick wrote that 536 "was the beginning of one of the worst periods to be alive, if not the worst year." [4]

Documentary evidence

The Roman historian Procopius recorded in CE 536 in his report on the wars with the Vandals, "during this year a most dread portent took place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness... and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear". [5] [6]

In 538, the Roman statesman Cassiodorus described the following to one of his subordinates in letter 25: [7]

In the entry corresponding to the year 535–536, the early 7th century Mandaean Book of Kings relates, "were you to request a tenth of a peck of grain in the land Gawkāy for five staters, we would look but it would not be found," [8] an exchange of 873 grams of grain for 43 grams of gold, reflecting the scarcity of grain during this time.

Michael the Syrian (1126–1199), a patriarch of the Syriac Orthodox Church, reported that during 536–537 the sun shone feebly for a year and a half. [9]

The Irish annals [10] [11] [12] recorded the following:

The mid-10th-century Annales Cambriae record for the year 537:

In Chinese sources include:

Further phenomena were reported by independent contemporary sources:

There are other sources of evidence regarding this period. [17] [18] [19] [20]

Scientific evidence

Tree ring analysis by the dendrochronologist Mike Baillie, of Queen's University Belfast, shows abnormally little growth in Irish oak in 536 and another sharp drop in 542, after a partial recovery. [21] Ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica show evidence of substantial sulfate deposits in around 534 ± 2, which is evidence of an extensive acidic dust veil. [22]

Possible explanations

It was originally theorized that the climatic changes of CE 536 were caused by either volcanic eruptions (a phenomenon known as "volcanic winter") or impact events (meteorite or comet). [23] [24] [25]

In 2015, revision of polar ice core chronologies dated sulfate deposits and a cryptotephra layer to the exact year CE 536 (previously dated to CE 529 before revision). [26] This is strong evidence that a large explosive volcanic eruption caused the observed dimming and cooling, removing the need for an extraterrestrial explanation, [22] [26] but an impact event around this time period cannot be ruled out. [27]

The source of volcanic eruption remains to be found but several proposed volcanoes have been rejected:

Geochemical analysis of CE 536 cryptotephras distinguishes at least three synchronous eruptive events in North America. [26] Further analysis correlates one of the eruptions to a widespread Mono Craters tephra identified in northeast California. [26] [37] The other two eruptions most likely originated from the eastern Aleutians and Northern Cordilleran volcanic province. [26] [38]

Historic consequences

The 536 event and ensuing famine have been suggested as an explanation for the deposition of hoards of gold by Scandinavian elites at the end of the Migration Period. The gold was possibly a sacrifice to appease the gods and get the sunlight back. [39] [40] Mythological events such as the Fimbulwinter and Ragnarök are theorised to be based on the cultural memory of the event. [41]

A book written by David Keys speculates that the climate changes contributed to various developments, such as the emergence of the Plague of Justinian (541–549), the decline of the Avars, the migration of Mongol tribes towards the west, the end of the Sasanian Empire, the collapse of the Gupta Empire, the rise of Islam, the expansion of Turkic tribes, and the fall of Teotihuacan. [16] In 2000, a 3BM Television production (for WNET and Channel Four) capitalised upon Keys' book. The documentary, under the name Catastrophe! How the World Changed, was broadcast in the US as part of PBS's Secrets of the Dead series. [42]

However, Keys and Wohletz's ideas lack mainstream acceptance. Reviewing Keys' book, British archaeologist Ken Dark commented that "much of the apparent evidence presented in the book is highly debatable, based on poor sources or simply incorrect. [...] Nonetheless, both the global scope and the emphasis on the 6th century CE as a time of wide-ranging change are notable, and the book contains some obscure information that will be new to many. However, it fails to demonstrate its central thesis and does not offer a convincing explanation for the many changes discussed". [43]

The philologist Andrew Breeze in a recent book (2020) argues that some Arthurian events, including the Battle of Camlann, are historical, happening in 537 as a consequence of the famine associated with the climate change of the previous year. [44]

Historian Robert Bruton argues that this catastrophe played a role in the decline of the Roman Empire. [45]

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ The battle is dated 539 in some editions.

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References

  1. ↑ Abbott, D. H.; Biscaye, P.; Cole-Dai, J.; Breger, D. (December 2008). "Magnetite and Silicate Spherules from the GISP2 Core at the 536 A.D. Horizon". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2008. Vol. 41. pp. 41B–1454. Bibcode:2008AGUFMPP41B1454A. Abstract #PP41B-1454.
  2. ↑ Harper, Kyle (2017). The Fate of Rome. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press. p. 253. ISBN   9780691166834.
  3. ↑ Peregrine, Peter (2020). "Climate and social change at the start of the Late Antique Little Ice Age". The Holocene. 30 (11): 1643–1648. Bibcode:2020Holoc..30.1643P. doi: 10.1177/0959683620941079 . ISSN   0959-6836. S2CID   222179333 . Retrieved 18 November 2021.
  4. 1 2 Gibbons, Ann (15 November 2018). "Why 536 was 'the worst year to be alive'". Science. doi:10.1126/science.aaw0632. ISSN   0036-8075. S2CID   189287084.
  5. ↑ Procopius (1916). Procopius. Vol. 2: History of the [Vandalic] Wars, Books III and IV. Translated by Dewing, Henry Bronson. London, England: William Heinemann. p. 329. ISBN   978-0-674-99054-8.
  6. ↑ Ochoa, George; Hoffman, Jennifer; Tin, Tina (2005). Climate: the force that shapes our world and the future of life on earth. Emmaus, Pennsylvania: Rodale. ISBN   978-1-59486-288-5, gives this quote as "The Sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the Sun in eclipse".
  7. ↑ Cassiodorus (1886). The Letters of Cassiodorus. Translated by Hodgkin, Thomas. London, England: Henry Frowde. pp. 518–520. See: "25. Senator, Praetorian Praefect, to his deputy Ambrosius, an Illustris."
  8. ↑ Häberl, Charles G. (2022). The Book of Kings and the Explanations of This World. Liverpool: Liverpool. p. 77. doi:10.3828/9781800856271 (inactive 1 November 2024). ISBN   9781837642595 . Retrieved 19 July 2024.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: DOI inactive as of November 2024 (link)
  9. ↑ Michel le Syrien (1901). Chronique de Michel le Syrien, Patriarche Jacobite d'Antoche [Chronicle of Michael the Syrian, Jacobite Patriarch of Syria] (in French). Vol. 2. Translated by Chabot, J. -B. Paris, France: Leroux. pp. 220–221."Or, un peu auparavant, en l'an 848, il y eut un signe dans le soleil..., et le vin avait le goût de celui qui provient de raisins acides." (However, a little earlier, in the year 848 [according to the Greek calendar; AD 536/537 according to the Christian calendar], there was a sign in the sun. One had never seen it [before] and nowhere is it written that such [an event] had happened [previously] in the world. If it were not [true] that we found it recorded in most proven and credible writings, and confirmed by men worthy of belief, we would not have written it [here]; for it's difficult to conceive. So it is said that the sun was darkened and that its eclipse lasted a year and a half, that is, eighteen months. Every day it shone for about four hours and yet this light was only a feeble shadow. Everyone declared that it would not return to the state of its original light. Fruits did not ripen, and wine had the taste of what comes from sour grapes.)
  10. ↑ Gaelic Irish Annals translations
  11. ↑ "List of Published Texts at CELT". celt.ucc.ie.
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  13. ↑ "Camlan | Robbins Library Digital Projects" . Retrieved 31 July 2018.
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  15. ↑ Rosen, William (2007). Justinian's flea: Plague, Empire and the Birth of Europe. London, England: Jonathan Cape. ISBN   978-0-224-07369-1.
  16. 1 2 3 Keys, David Patrick (2000). Catastrophe: an investigation into the origins of the modern world. New York: Ballantine Pub. ISBN   978-0-345-40876-1.
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  20. ↑ Arjava, Antti (2005). "The mystery cloud of 536 CE in the Mediterranean sources". Dumbarton Oaks Papers. 59: 73–94. doi:10.2307/4128751. ISSN   0070-7546. JSTOR   4128751.
  21. ↑ Baillie, M. G. L. (1994). "Dendrochronology Raises Questions About the Nature of the AD 536 Dust-Veil Event." The Holocene, fig. 3, p. 215.
  22. 1 2 Larsen, L. B.; Vinther, B. M.; Briffa, K. R.; Melvin, T. M.; Clausen, H. B.; Jones, P. D.; Siggaard-Andersen, M.-L.; Hammer, C. U.; et al. (2008). "New ice core evidence for a volcanic cause of the A.D. 536 dust veil". Geophys. Res. Lett. 35 (4): L04708. Bibcode:2008GeoRL..35.4708L. doi:10.1029/2007GL032450. ISSN   0094-8276. S2CID   54703352. Archived from the original on 6 June 2011. Retrieved 7 April 2008.
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  25. ↑ MacIntyre, Ferren (2002). "Simultaneous Settlement of Indo-Pacific Extrema?". Rapa Nui Journal. 16 (2): 96–104.
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 Sigl, M.; Winstrup, M.; McConnell, J. R.; Welten, K. C.; Plunkett, G.; Ludlow, F.; Büntgen, U.; Caffee, M.; Chellman, N. (2015). "Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years". Nature. 523 (7562): 543–549. Bibcode:2015Natur.523..543S. doi:10.1038/nature14565. ISSN   0028-0836. PMID   26153860. S2CID   4462058.
  27. ↑ Abbott, Dallas H.; Breger, Dee; Biscaye, Pierre E.; Barron, John A.; Juhl, Robert A.; McCafferty, Patrick (1 September 2014). "What caused terrestrial dust loading and climate downturns between A.D. 533 and 540?". Volcanism, Impacts, and Mass Extinctions: Causes and Effects. doi:10.1130/2014.2505(23). ISBN   9780813725055. S2CID   129953699.
  28. ↑ Stothers, R. B. (26 January 1984). "Mystery cloud of CE 536". Nature. 307 (5949): 344–345. Bibcode:1984Natur.307..344S. doi:10.1038/307344a0. ISSN   0028-0836. S2CID   4233649.
  29. ↑ McKee, Chris O.; Baillie, Michael G.; Reimer, Paula J. (4 July 2015). "A revised age of ad 667–699 for the latest major eruption at Rabaul". Bulletin of Volcanology. 77 (7): 65. Bibcode:2015BVol...77...65M. doi:10.1007/s00445-015-0954-7. ISSN   1432-0819. S2CID   132032440.
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  31. ↑ Dull, R.; Southon, J. R.; Kutterolf, S.; Freundt, A.; Wahl, D.; Sheets, P. (13–17 December 2010). "Did the TBJ Ilopango eruption cause the AD 536 event?". AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts. 13: V13C–2370. Bibcode:2010AGUFM.V13C2370D.
  32. ↑ Dull, Robert A.; Southon, John R.; Kutterolf, Steffen; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Freundt, Armin; Wahl, David B.; Sheets, Payson; Amaroli, Paul; Hernandez, Walter; Wiemann, Michael C.; Oppenheimer, Clive (October 2019). "Radiocarbon and geologic evidence reveal Ilopango volcano as a source of the colossal 'mystery' eruption of 539/40 CE" (PDF). Quaternary Science Reviews. 222: 105855. Bibcode:2019QSRv..22205855D. doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2019.07.037. ISSN   0277-3791. S2CID   202190161.
  33. ↑ Smith, Victoria C.; Costa, Antonio; Aguirre-Díaz, Gerardo; Pedrazzi, Dario; Scifo, Andrea; Plunkett, Gill; Poret, Mattieu; Tournigand, Pierre-Yves; Miles, Dan; Dee, Michael W.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Sunyé-Puchol, Ivan; Harris, Pablo Dávila; Sigl, Michael; Pilcher, Jonathan R.; Chellman, Nathan; Gutiérrez, Eduardo (20 October 2020). "The magnitude and impact of the 431 CE Tierra Blanca Joven eruption of Ilopango, El Salvador". Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 117 (42): 26061–26068. Bibcode:2020PNAS..11726061S. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2003008117 . ISSN   0027-8424. PMC   7584997 . PMID   32989145.
  34. 1 2 Loveluck, Christopher P.; McCormick, Michael; Spaulding, Nicole E.; Clifford, Heather; Handley, Michael J.; Hartman, Laura; Hoffmann, Helene; Korotkikh, Elena V.; Kurbatov, Andrei V.; More, Alexander F.; Sneed, Sharon B.; Mayewski, Paul A. (14 November 2018). "Alpine ice-core evidence for the transformation of the European monetary system, CE 640–670". Antiquity. 92 (366): 1571–1585. doi: 10.15184/aqy.2018.110 . ISSN   0003-598X. S2CID   165543389.
  35. ↑ https://www.science.org/content/article/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive [ bare URL ]
  36. ↑ Plunkett, Gill; Sigl, Michael; Pilcher, Jonathan R.; McConnell, Joseph R.; Chellman, Nathan; Steffensen, J.P.; Büntgen, Ulf (8 June 2020). "Smoking guns and volcanic ash: the importance of sparse tephras in Greenland ice cores". Polar Research. 39. doi: 10.33265/polar.v39.3511 . ISSN   0800-0395. S2CID   219672090.
  37. ↑ Plunkett, Gill; Sigl, Michael; McConnell, Joseph R.; Pilcher, Jonathan R.; Chellman, Nathan J. (1 February 2023). "The significance of volcanic ash in Greenland ice cores during the Common Era". Quaternary Science Reviews. 301: 107936. Bibcode:2023QSRv..30107936P. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2022.107936 . ISSN   0277-3791. S2CID   181849906.
  38. ↑ Plunkett, Gill; Sigl, Michael; Schwaiger, Hans F.; Tomlinson, Emma L.; Toohey, Matthew; McConnell, Joseph R.; Pilcher, Jonathan R.; Hasegawa, Takeshi; Siebe, Claus (18 January 2022). "No evidence for tephra in Greenland from the historic eruption of Vesuvius in 79 CE: implications for geochronology and paleoclimatology". Climate of the Past. 18 (1): 45–65. Bibcode:2022CliPa..18...45P. doi: 10.5194/cp-18-45-2022 . hdl: 2262/101944 . ISSN   1814-9324.
  39. ↑ Axboe, Morten (2001). "Året 536". Skalk (4): 28–32.
  40. ↑ Axboe, Morten (1999). "The year 536 and the Scandinavian gold hoards" (PDF). Medieval Archaeology . 43: 186–188. Archived from the original (PDF) on 10 August 2011. Retrieved 12 January 2009.
  41. ↑ Ström, Folke: Nordisk Hedendom, Studentlitteratur, Lund 2005, ISBN   91-44-00551-2 (first published 1961) among others, refer to the climate change theory.
  42. ↑ Gunn, Joel D. (2000). The Years Without Summer: Tracing A.D. 536 and its Aftermath. British Archaeological Reports (BAR) International. Oxford, England: Archaeopress. ISBN   978-1-84171-074-7.
  43. ↑ Dark, Ken (November 1999). "Jumbling old events with modern myths". British Archaeology (49). ISSN   1357-4442. Archived from the original on 25 February 2006. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
  44. ↑ Breeze, Andrew (2020). British Battles 493–937: Mount Badon to Brunanburh. London, England: Anthem Press. pp. 13–24. doi:10.2307/j.ctvv4187r. ISBN   9781785272233. JSTOR   j.ctvv4187r. S2CID   243164764.
  45. ↑ Burton, Robert (7 April 2019). The Role of Climate Change in the Decline of the Roman Empire. Capstone Paper. Retrieved 29 December 2023.
  46. ↑ Gao, Chaochao; Robock, Alan; Self, Stephen; Witter, Jeffrey B.; Steffenson, J. P.; Clausen, Henrik Brink; Siggaard-Andersen, Marie-Louise; Johnsen, Sigfus; Mayewski, Paul A.; Ammann, Caspar (2006). "The 1452 or 1453 A.D. Kuwae Eruption Signal Derived from Multiple Ice Core Records: Greatest Volcanic Sulfate Event of the Past 700 Years" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research. 111 (D12107): 11. Bibcode:2006JGRD..11112107G. doi:10.1029/2005JD006710. ISSN   0148-0227.

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