What We Owe the Future

Last updated
What We Owe the Future
What We Owe the Future.png
Author William MacAskill
Audio read byWilliam MacAskill
CountryU.S.
LanguageEnglish
Subject
Genre Philosophy
Publisher Basic Books, Oneworld Publications
Publication date
August 16, 2022
Pages352
ISBN 978-1-5416-1862-6
OCLC 1288137842
Website whatweowethefuture.com

What We Owe the Future is a 2022 book by the Scottish philosopher and ethicist William MacAskill, an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. It advocates for effective altruism and the philosophy of longtermism, which MacAskill defines as "the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time." [1] :4

Contents

Summary

Part one: The long view

MacAskill makes the case for longtermism—an ethical stance which gives priority to improving the long-term future—and proposes that we can make the future better in two ways: "by averting permanent catastrophes, thereby ensuring civilisation's survival; or by changing civilisation's trajectory to make it better while it lasts ... Broadly, ensuring survival increases the quantity of future life; trajectory changes increase its quality". [1] :35–36 According to MacAskill, the present era is a critical juncture: "Few people who ever live will have as much power to positively influence the future as we do. Such rapid technological, social, and environmental change means that we have more opportunity to affect when and how the most important of these changes occur". [1] :39

His argument for longtermism has three premises: first, future people count morally as much as the people alive today; second, the future is immensely big since humanity may survive for a very long time, and there may be many more people alive at any given time; and third, the future could be very good or very bad, and our actions may affect what it will be.

Part two: Trajectory changes

To improve the future, MacAskill investigates how moral change and value lock-in may constitute long-run trajectory changes for civilisation. He suggests that moral and cultural values are malleable, contingent, and potentially long-lived—if history were to be rerun, the dominant global values may be very different from those in our world; for example, the abolition of slavery may not have been morally or economically inevitable. [1] :70 MacAskill warns of a potential value lock-in—"an event that causes a single value system ... to persist for an extremely long time" [1] :78—which he believes may result from technological advances, particularly the development of artificial general intelligence. [1] :80–86

Part three: Safeguarding civilisation

Next, MacAskill explores how to protect humanity from risks of extinction , unrecoverable civilisational collapse , and long-run technological stagnation . He argues that the most severe threats of human extinction are posed by engineered pathogens and misaligned artificial general intelligence. He also discusses several potential causes of civilisational collapse—including extreme climate change, fossil fuel depletion, and nuclear winter caused by nuclear war—concluding that civilisation appears very resilient, with recovery after a collapse being likely. [1] :127–142 MacAskill next turns to risks of long-lasting technological and economic stagnation. While he considers indefinite stagnation unlikely, "it seems entirely plausible that we could stagnate for hundreds or thousands of years". [1] :144 From a longtermist perspective, this matters primarily because long-term stagnation makes extinction or collapse more likely, and because the society emerging after the period of stagnation may be guided by worse values than society today. [1] :142,144

Part four: Assessing the end of the world

The book also discusses how bad the end of humanity would be, which depends on whether the future will be good or bad in expectation and on whether it is morally good for happy people to be born—a key question in population ethics. He concludes optimistically that the future will likely be positive on balance, in part because future people are asymmetrically motivated to bring about good things rather than bad things. [1] :218 He also claims that preventing future people from coming into existence is a moral loss if their lives would be sufficiently good, leading him to conclude that "the early extinction of the human race would be a truly enormous tragedy". [1] :189,193

Part five: Taking action

The book's final part details how to choose which problems to focus on, along with what people can do to take action. In areas such as climate change, fossil fuel depletion, biosecurity, pandemic preparedness, and disaster preparedness, people can take "robustly good actions" like research and advocacy to help. [1] :291 Meanwhile, for issues with more unknowns, such as reducing AGI risk and preventing great-power wars, building up options and learning should be prioritized. [1] :292–294

For the individual, MacAskill emphasises the significance of professional work, writing that "by far the most important decision you will make, in terms of your lifetime impact, is your choice of career". [1] :234 He highlights 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit he helped co-found, which conducts research and provides advice on which careers have the largest positive impact, especially from a longtermist perspective. [2] [3] He also argues that donations to effective longtermist causes and organisations are much more impactful than changing our personal consumption. [1] :232

Critical reception

What We Owe the Future has received coverage in The New Yorker , [4] NPR , [5] The Ezra Klein Show , [6] The Bookseller , [7] and New York Magazine . [8] Adaptations of the book's central thesis have been published by MacAskill in Foreign Affairs, [9] The New York Times , [10] and the BBC. [11]

Publishers Weekly 's review described the book positively: "MacAskill delivers a sweeping analysis of contemporary dangers that masterfully probes the intersections of technology, science, and politics, while offering fascinating glimpses into humanity's possible futures. This urgent call to action will inspire and unnerve in equal measure." [12] Kirkus Reviews 's review was also favorable: "With something to ponder on every page, a bracing exhortation to do right by the people of centuries to come." [13] Kieran Setiya writes in the Boston Review that it "is an instructive, intelligent book ... But a moral arithmetic is only as good as its axioms. I hope readers approach longtermism with the open-mindedness and moral judgment MacAskill wants us to preserve." [14] Writing for The Guardian , Oliver Burkeman reviewed the book very favorably, calling it "the most inspiring book on 'ethical living' I've ever read." [15]

What We Owe The Future, and the effective altruism movement more broadly, were reported on in a cover story for TIME Magazine by Naina Bajekal, who writes "all the lives still to come ... could be so much better and richer in meaning—or so much worse. If that depends on what we all do in the next few decades, I don't know exactly how to help ensure our actions are for the better. But if the future could be as vast and good as MacAskill thinks, it seems worth trying." [16]

In a critique of the so-called "quasi-religious worldview of longtermism", Salon gave a negative review of the book: "One must wonder, when MacAskill implicitly asks 'What do we owe the future?' whose future he's talking about. The future of indigenous peoples? The future of the world's nearly 2 billion Muslims? The future of the Global South?" [17] Barton Swaim's review for The Wall Street Journal was also negative: "Rarely have I read a book by a reputedly important intellectual more replete with highfalutin truisms, cockamamie analogies and complex discussions leading nowhere. Never mind what we owe the future; what does an author owe his readers? In this case, an apology." [18]

Publication

What We Owe the Future was first published in the United States by Basic Books in August 2022, [19] along with an audiobook version, narrated by William MacAskill and published by Recorded Books. [20] An edition, with the subtitle "A Million-Year View", was published in the United Kingdom by Oneworld Publications in September of the same year. [21]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Altruism</span> Principle or practice of concern for the welfare of others

Altruism is the principle and practice of concern for the well-being and/or happiness of other humans or animals above oneself. While objects of altruistic concern vary, it is an important moral value in many cultures and religions. It may be considered a synonym of selflessness, the opposite of selfishness.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Famine, Affluence, and Morality</span> 1971 essay by Peter Singer

"Famine, Affluence, and Morality" is an essay written by Peter Singer in 1971 and published in Philosophy & Public Affairs in 1972. It argues that affluent persons are morally obligated to donate far more resources to humanitarian causes than is considered normal in Western cultures. The essay was inspired by the starvation of Bangladesh Liberation War refugees, and uses their situation as an example, although Singer's argument is general in scope and not limited to the example of Bangladesh. The essay is anthologized widely as an example of Western ethical thinking.

Population ethics is the philosophical study of the ethical problems arising when our actions affect who is born and how many people are born in the future. An important area within population ethics is population axiology, which is "the study of the conditions under which one state of affairs is better than another, when the states of affairs in question may differ over the numbers and the identities of the persons who ever live."

Giving What We Can (GWWC) is an effective altruism-associated organisation whose members pledge to give at least 10% of their income to effective charities. It was founded at Oxford University in 2009 by the philosopher Toby Ord, physician-in-training Bernadette Young, and fellow philosopher William MacAskill.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Holden Karnofsky</span> American nonprofit executive

Holden Karnofsky is an American nonprofit executive. He is a co-founder and Director of AI Strategy of the research and grantmaking organization Open Philanthropy. Karnofsky co-founded the charity evaluator GiveWell with Elie Hassenfeld in 2007 and is vice chair of its board of directors.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Toby Ord</span> Australian philosopher (born 1979)

Toby David Godfrey Ord is an Australian philosopher. In 2009 he founded Giving What We Can, an international society whose members pledge to donate at least 10% of their income to effective charities, and is a key figure in the effective altruism movement, which promotes using reason and evidence to help the lives of others as much as possible.

Effective altruism (EA) is a 21st-century philosophical and social movement that advocates "using evidence and reason to figure out how to benefit others as much as possible, and taking action on that basis". People who pursue the goals of effective altruism, sometimes called effective altruists, may choose careers based on the amount of good that they expect the career to achieve or donate to charities based on the goal of maximising positive impact. They may work on the prioritization of scientific projects, entrepreneurial ventures, and policy initiatives estimated to save the most lives or reduce the most suffering.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">80,000 Hours</span> Non-profit organisation that conducts research on which jobs have most positive social impact

80,000 Hours is a London-based nonprofit organisation that conducts research on which careers have the largest positive social impact and provides career advice based on that research. It provides this advice on their website and podcast, and through one-on-one advice sessions. The organisation is part of the Centre for Effective Altruism, affiliated with the Oxford Uehiro Centre for Practical Ethics. The organisation's name refers to the typical amount of time someone spends working over a lifetime.

Earning to give involves deliberately pursuing a high-earning career for the purpose of donating a significant portion of earned income, typically because of a desire to do effective altruism. Advocates of earning to give contend that maximizing the amount one can donate to charity is an important consideration for individuals when deciding what career to pursue.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">William MacAskill</span> Scottish philosopher and ethicist (born 1987)

William David MacAskill is a Scottish philosopher and author, as well as one of the originators of the effective altruism movement. He is an associate professor in Philosophy and Research Fellow at the Global Priorities Institute at the University of Oxford and Director of the Forethought Foundation for Global Priorities Research. He co-founded Giving What We Can, the Centre for Effective Altruism and 80,000 Hours, and is the author of Doing Good Better (2015) and What We Owe the Future (2022), and the co-author of Moral Uncertainty (2020).

<i>Doing Good Better</i> 2015 book about effective altruism by William MacAskill

Doing Good Better: Effective Altruism and How You Can Make a Difference is a 2015 book by William MacAskill that serves as a primer on the effective altruism movement that seeks to do the most good. It is published by Random House and was released on July 28, 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Centre for Effective Altruism</span> Non-profit effective altruist organization

The Centre for Effective Altruism (CEA) is an Oxford-based organisation that builds and supports the effective altruism community. It was founded in 2012 by William MacAskill and Toby Ord, both philosophers at the University of Oxford. CEA is part of Effective Ventures, a federation of projects working to have a large positive impact in the world.

Open Philanthropy is a research and grantmaking foundation that makes grants based on the doctrine of effective altruism. It was founded as a partnership between GiveWell and Good Ventures. Its current chief executive officer is Alexander Berger, and its main funders are Cari Tuna and Dustin Moskovitz. Dustin says that their wealth, worth $11 billion, is "pooled up around us right now, but it belongs to the world. We intend not to have much when we die."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Effective Altruism Global</span> Recurring effective altruism conference

Effective Altruism Global, abbreviated EA Global or EAG, is a series of philanthropy conferences that focuses on the effective altruism movement. The conferences are run by the Centre for Effective Altruism. Huffington Post editor Nico Pitney described the events as a gathering of "nerd altruists", which was "heavy on people from technology, science, and analytical disciplines".

<i>Slate Star Codex</i> Blog focused on psychology, philosophy, artificial intelligence, and futurism

Slate Star Codex (SSC) is a blog focused on science, medicine, philosophy, politics, and futurism. The blog was written by Scott Alexander Siskind, a San Francisco Bay Area psychiatrist, under the pen name Scott Alexander.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hilary Greaves</span> British philosopher (born 1978)

Hilary Greaves is a British philosopher, currently serving as professor of philosophy at the University of Oxford. From 2017 to 2022, she was the founding director of the Global Priorities Institute, a research centre for effective altruism at the university supported by the Open Philanthropy Project.

<i>The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity</i> 2020 book about existential risks by Toby Ord

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a 2020 non-fiction book by the Australian philosopher Toby Ord, a senior research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford. It argues that humanity faces unprecedented risks over the next few centuries and examines the moral significance of safeguarding humanity's future.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Longtermism</span> Philosophical view which prioritises the long-term future

Longtermism is the ethical view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. It is an important concept in effective altruism and serves as a primary motivation for efforts that claim to reduce existential risks to humanity.

Moral circle expansion is an increase over time in the number and type of entities given moral consideration. The general idea of moral inclusion was discussed by ancient philosophers and since the 19th century has inspired social movements related to human rights and animal rights. Especially in relation to animal rights, the philosopher Peter Singer has written about the subject since the 1970s, and since 2017 so has the think tank Sentience Institute, part of the 21st-century effective altruism movement. There is significant debate on whether humanity actually has an expanding moral circle, considering topics such as the lack of a uniform border of growing moral consideration and the disconnect between people's moral attitudes and their behavior. Research into the phenomenon is ongoing.

Émile P. Torres is an American philosopher, intellectual historian, author, and postdoctoral researcher at Case Western Reserve University. Their research focuses on eschatology, existential risk, and human extinction. They are also a critic of what they and computer scientist Timnit Gebru have dubbed the "TESCREAL" philosophies: transhumanism, extropianism, singularitarianism, cosmism, rationalism, effective altruism, and longtermism.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 MacAskill, William (2022). What We Owe the Future. New York: Basic Books. ISBN   978-1-5416-1862-6. OCLC   1288137842.
  2. "About us: what do we do, and how can we help?". 80,000 Hours . Retrieved 2022-08-14.
  3. 1 2 Todd, Benjamin (October 2017). "Longtermism: the moral significance of future generations". 80,000 Hours . Retrieved 2022-08-14.
  4. Lewis-Kraus, Gideon (2022-08-08). "The Reluctant Prophet of Effective Altruism". The New Yorker. Retrieved 2022-08-10.
  5. Gharib, Malaka (2022-08-16). "How can we help humans thrive trillions of years from now? This philosopher has a plan". NPR. Retrieved 2022-09-14.
  6. Show’, ‘The Ezra Klein (2022-08-09). "Three Sentences That Could Change the World — and Your Life". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2022-09-14.
  7. Sanderson, Caroline (2022-07-15). "William MacAskill on influencing the lives of future generations". The Bookseller. Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  8. Levitz, Eric (2022-08-30). "Why Effective Altruists Fear the AI Apocalypse". Intelligencer. New York Magazine. Retrieved 2022-09-01.
  9. MacAskill, William (2022-08-11). "The Beginning of History". Foreign Affairs. Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  10. MacAskill, William (2022-08-05). "The Case for Longtermism". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  11. MacAskill, William. "What is longtermism and why does it matter?". BBC. Retrieved 2022-08-11.
  12. "What We Owe the Future by William Macaskill". Publishers Weekly. 2022-05-25. Retrieved 2022-08-12.
  13. "What We Owe the Future". Kirkus Reviews. 2022-05-17. Retrieved 2022-08-12.
  14. Setiya, Kieran. "The New Moral Mathematics". Boston Review. Retrieved 2022-08-16.
  15. Burkeman, Oliver (2022-08-25). "What We Owe the Future by William MacAskill review – a thrilling prescription for humanity". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 2022-08-26.
  16. Bajekal, Naina (2022-08-10). "Want to Do More Good? This Movement Might Have the Answer". Time. Retrieved 2022-08-10.
  17. Torres, Émile P. (2022-08-20). "Understanding "longtermism": Why this suddenly influential philosophy is so toxic". Salon . Retrieved 2022-08-24.
  18. Swaim, Barton (2022-08-26). "'What We Owe the Future' Review: A Technocrat's Tomorrow". The Wall Street Journal. ISSN   0099-9660 . Retrieved 2022-08-28.
  19. "What We Owe the Future by William MacAskill". Basic Books. Retrieved 2022-09-14.
  20. "What We Owe the Future Audiobook". BlackstoneLibrary.com. Retrieved 2022-09-01.
  21. "What We Owe The Future". Oneworld Publications. Retrieved 2022-09-01.