The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity

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The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity
The Precipice (Ord, 2020) book cover.jpg
Hardcover edition
Author Toby Ord
CountryUnited Kingdom
LanguageEnglish
Subject Existential risk
GenrePhilosophy, popular science
Publisher Bloomsbury Publishing [1]
Hachette Book Group [2]
Publication date
5 March 2020 (UK)
24 March 2020 (US)
Media typePrint, e-book, audiobook
Pages480
ISBN 1526600218
Website www.theprecipice.com

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity is a 2020 non-fiction book by the Australian philosopher Toby Ord, a senior research fellow at the Future of Humanity Institute in Oxford. It argues that humanity faces unprecedented risks over the next few centuries and examines the moral significance of safeguarding humanity's future.

Contents

Summary

The Precipice

Ord argues that humanity is in a uniquely dangerous period in its development, which he calls the Precipice. Beginning with the first atomic bomb test in 1945, the Precipice is characterized by unprecedented destructive capability paired with inadequate wisdom and restraint. Ord predicts that the Precipice is likely to last no more than a few centuries, as humanity will either quickly develop the necessary self-control or succumb to the rapidly accumulating risk of catastrophe. Ord estimates that the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, which leaders at the time thought had a 10–50% chance of causing nuclear war, was the closest humanity has yet come to self-destruction in its 200,000-year history.

Existential catastrophe and existential risk

Ord uses the concepts of existential catastrophe and existential risk, citing their definitions by Nick Bostrom. Existential catastrophe refers to the realized destruction of humanity's long-term potential, whereas existential risk refers to the probability that a given hazard will lead to existential catastrophe. Human extinction is one mechanism of existential catastrophe, but others can be imagined such as permanent totalitarian dystopia. This concept of existential catastrophe is strictly defined as a permanent, irreversible loss of potential; for example, even a disaster that killed a majority of humans would not be an existential catastrophe under this definition, provided that the survivors eventually recover and resume scientific and technological progress. Ord examines the immense moral implications of existential catastrophe from a variety of perspectives: existential catastrophe would simultaneously betray all that past humans have built, bring great harm upon humans existing at the time, and cut off the possibility of a vast future flourishing among the stars.

Risk landscape

Ord estimates a 1 in 6 total risk of existential catastrophe occurring in the next century. This includes a relatively negligible existential risk from natural catastrophes such as asteroid impacts but is overwhelmingly dominated by anthropogenic (human-caused) existential risk. Ord estimates the existential risk associated with unaligned artificial general intelligence to be 1 in 10 over the next century, higher than all other sources of existential risk combined. Other anthropogenic existential risks include nuclear war, engineered pandemics, and climate change.

Response

Ord states that humanity spends less than 0.001% of gross world product on targeted existential risk reduction interventions. He argues that motivation to fund such interventions is limited by insufficient global coordination, which could be improved via specialized global institutions. Moreover, interventions such as governance of dangerous emerging technologies may inherently require increased global coordination. Ord outlines a number of policy and research recommendations intended to reduce existential risk. He also explores several ways individuals can contribute to existential risk reduction, such as selecting high-impact careers, effective giving, and contributing to a public conversation on the issue.

Reception

A review in the Evening Standard called The Precipice a "a startling and rigorous contribution". [3] In The Spectator , Tom Chivers called The Precipice "a powerful book, written with a philosopher's eye for counterarguments so that he can meet them in advance. And Ord's love for humanity and hope for its future is infectious, as is his horrified wonder at how close we have come to destroying it". [4]

Writing in The Sunday Times , journalist and author Bryan Appleyard expressed skepticism toward some of the moral philosophy in the book, stating "I doubt that it can redirect humanity away from its self-destructive ways", but ultimately praised the book, calling it "dense and often thrillingly written" and highlighting Ord's analysis of the science as "exemplary". [5] Reviewer Steven Carroll in The Sydney Morning Herald called it authoritative and accessible. [6]

A review in The New Yorker published in April 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic noted that the book seemed "made for the present moment" and said "readers may find the sections that argue for why humanity deserves saving, and why we're equipped to face the challenges, even more arresting than the array of potential cataclysms". [7]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nick Bostrom</span> Swedish philosopher and writer (born 1973)

Nick Bostrom is a Swedish philosopher at the University of Oxford known for his work on existential risk, the anthropic principle, human enhancement ethics, whole brain emulation, superintelligence risks, and the reversal test. He is the founding director of the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Space and survival</span> Idea that long-term human presence requires to be spacefaring

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human extinction</span> Hypothetical end of the human species

Human extinction is the hypothetical end of the human species due to either natural causes such as population decline from sub-replacement fertility, an asteroid impact, large-scale volcanism, or via anthropogenic destruction (self-extinction).

Evidence-based policy is a concept in public policy that advocates for policy decisions to be grounded on, or influenced by, rigorously established objective evidence. This concept presents a stark contrast to policymaking predicated on ideology, 'common sense,' anecdotes, or personal intuitions. The approach mirrors the effective altruism movement's philosophy within governmental circles. The methodology employed in evidence-based policy often includes comprehensive research methods such as randomized controlled trials (RCT). Good data, analytical skills, and political support to the use of scientific information are typically seen as the crucial elements of an evidence-based approach.

Differential technological development is a strategy of technology governance aiming to decrease risks from emerging technologies by influencing the sequence in which they are developed. On this strategy, societies would strive to delay the development of harmful technologies and their applications, while accelerating the development of beneficial technologies, especially those that offer protection against the harmful ones.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Future of Humanity Institute</span> Oxford interdisciplinary research centre

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Scope neglect</span> Cognitive bias

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Existential risk from artificial general intelligence</span> Hypothesized risk to human existence

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">End Times (book)</span> 2019 book by Bryan Walsh

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Longtermism</span> Philosophical view which prioritises the long-term future

Longtermism is the ethical view that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time. It is an important concept in effective altruism and serves as a primary motivation for efforts that claim to reduce existential risks to humanity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global catastrophe scenarios</span> Scenarios in which a global catastrophe creates harm

Scenarios in which a global catastrophic risk creates harm have been widely discussed. Some sources of catastrophic risk are anthropogenic, such as global warming, environmental degradation, and nuclear war. Others are non-anthropogenic or natural, such as meteor impacts or supervolcanoes. The impact of these scenarios can vary widely, depending on the cause and the severity of the event, ranging from temporary economic disruption to human extinction. Many societal collapses have already happened throughout human history.

<i>What We Owe the Future</i> 2022 book about longtermism by William MacAskill

What We Owe the Future is a 2022 book by the Scottish philosopher and ethicist William MacAskill, an associate professor in philosophy at the University of Oxford. It argues for effective altruism and the philosophy of longtermism, which MacAskill defines as "the idea that positively influencing the long-term future is a key moral priority of our time."

References

  1. "The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity". Bloomsbury.
  2. Ord, Toby (9 July 2019). The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity. Hachette Books. ISBN   9780316484893.
  3. Sexton, David (5 March 2020). "Book Review – The Precipice". Evening Standard . Retrieved 27 March 2020.
  4. Chivers, Tom (7 March 2020). "How close is humanity to destroying itself?". The Spectator . Retrieved 27 March 2020.
  5. Appleyard, Bryan (8 March 2020). "The Precipice by Toby Ord review — how civilisation could end". The Sunday Times . Retrieved 27 March 2020.
  6. Steven Carroll; Kerryn Goldsworthy (19 March 2020). "The future of humanity has reached a tipping point, argues new book". The Sydney Morning Herald . Retrieved 2 April 2020.
  7. "Briefly Noted Book Reviews". The New Yorker . 6 April 2020.