2020 Queensland state election

Last updated

2020 Queensland state election
Flag of Queensland.svg
←  2017 31 October 2020 2024  →
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered3,377,476 Increase2.svg4.6%
Turnout2,969,347 (87.92%)
(Increase2.svg0.4 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Annastacia Palaszczuk 2016 (crop).jpg Deb Frecklington headshot crop narrow.jpg Robbie Katter with hat at lookout (cropped).jpg
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Deb Frecklington Robbie Katter
Party Labor Liberal National Katter's Australian
Leader since28 March 2012 (2012-03-28)12 December 2017 (2017-12-12)2 February 2015 (2015-02-02)
Leader's seat Inala Nanango Traeger
Last election48 seats, 35.4%39 seats, 33.7%3 seats, 2.32%
Seats before4838 [lower-alpha 1] 3
Seats won52343
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 4Decrease2.svg 4Steady2.svg
Popular vote1,134,9691,029,44272,168
Percentage39.6%35.9%2.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg 4.1Increase2.svg 2.2Increase2.svg 0.2
TPP 53.2%46.8%
TPP swingIncrease2.svg 1.9Decrease2.svg 1.9
 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Greens placeholder-01.png
PHON
NQF
LeaderNo leaderNo leader Jason Costigan
Party Greens One Nation NQ First
Leader sinceN/AN/A18 November 2019
Leader's seatN/AN/A Whitsunday
(lost seat)
Last election1 seat, 10.0%1 seat, 13.7%New party
Seats before111 [lower-alpha 1]
Seats won210
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Steady2.svgDecrease2.svg 1
Popular vote271,514204,3165,616
Percentage9.5%7.1%0.2%
SwingDecrease2.svg 0.5Decrease2.svg 6.6Increase2.svg 0.2
2020 Queensland state election.svg
Winning margin by electorate.
Premier before election

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

Elected Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The 2020 Queensland state election was held on 31 October to elect all 93 members to the 57th Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The Labor Party was returned to government for a third-term, led by incumbent premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. [2] With 47 seats needed to form a majority government, Labor won 52 seats, including all but five in Brisbane, while the Liberal National Party won 34 seats and formed opposition. On the crossbench, Katter's Australian Party retained its 3 seats, the Queensland Greens picked up South Brisbane for a total of 2, Pauline Hanson's One Nation retained Mirani and independent Sandy Bolton retained her seat of Noosa.

Contents

Both major parties managed a small swing to them on primary votes, as a result of One Nation's vote sharply declining. On the two-party-preferred vote, Labor had a small swing to it statewide, though the party did notably lose some ground to the LNP in some key seats, including the ultra-marginal seats of Burdekin and Whitsunday, and the LNP also won both Toowoomba-based seats with increased majorities. Labor picked up five seats from the LNP, but notably sitting Deputy Premier Jackie Trad lost her seat of South Brisbane to the Greens.

At 11pm on 31 October, Liberal National Party leader Deb Frecklington conceded defeat, congratulating Palaszczuk on her victory. [2] Frecklington initially indicated that she would stay on as party leader, but on 2 November announced that she would convene a party meeting and resign as leader. [3] David Crisafulli won the ensuing leadership spill and was elected LNP leader on 12 November 2020. [4]

Palaszczuk became the first female party leader to win three state elections in Australia, [5] as well as the first Queensland Premier to increase their party's seat total across three successive elections. [6]

Results

Map of results by electorate. 2020 Queensland state election - Vote Strength (3).svg
Map of results by electorate.
↓ 
52211334
ALPGRNINDONPKAPLNP
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – Turnout 87.9% (CV) [7] [8]
2020 Queensland Legislative Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%SwingSeats+/–
  Labor 1,134,96939.57+4.1452Increase2.svg 4
  Liberal National 1,029,44235.89+2.2034Decrease2.svg 5
  Greens 271,5149.47−0.532Increase2.svg 1
  One Nation 204,3167.12−6.601Steady2.svg
  Katter's Australian 72,1682.52+0.203Steady2.svg
  Legalise Cannabis 26,1460.91+0.910Steady2.svg
  United Australia 17,9040.62+0.620Steady2.svg
  Informed Medical Options 17,5460.61+0.610Steady2.svg
  Animal Justice 9,7030.34+0.340Steady2.svg
  North Queensland First 5,6160.20+0.200Steady2.svg
  Civil Liberties and Motorists 5,2070.18−0.08 [lower-alpha 2] 0Steady2.svg
  Shooters, Fishers, Farmers 2,8010.10+0.100Steady2.svg
  Independents 70,9922.48−2.101Steady2.svg
 Formal votes2,868,32496.60+0.94
 Informal votes101,0233.40−0.94
 Total 2,969,34710093
 Registered voters / turnout3,377,47687.92+0.39
Two-party-preferred vote [9]
Labor 1,524,76653.2Increase2.svg 1.9
Liberal National 1,343,55846.8Decrease2.svg 1.9

Vote summary

Popular vote
Labor
 
39.57%
LNP
 
35.89%
Greens
 
9.47%
One Nation
 
7.12%
Katter's
 
2.52%
Independents
 
2.48%
Other
 
2.95%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
 
53.2%
LNP
 
46.8%
Seats summary
Labor
 
55.91%
LNP
 
36.56%
Katter's
 
3.23%
Greens
 
2.15%
One Nation
 
1.08%
Independents
 
1.08%

Seats changing parties

Six seats changed parties in this election. [10] Five seats changed from Liberal National to Labor, [11] while South Brisbane changed from Labor to the Greens. [12]

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bundaberg Liberal National David Batt 4.20-4.210.01 Tom Smith Labor
Caloundra Liberal National Mark McArdle 3.41-5.922.51 Jason Hunt Labor
Hervey Bay Liberal National Ted Sorensen 9.10-11.122.02 Adrian Tantari Labor
Nicklin Liberal National Marty Hunt 5.28-5.420.14 Robert Skelton Labor
Pumicestone Liberal National Simone Wilson 0.84-6.115.27 Ali King Labor
South Brisbane Labor Jackie Trad 3.55-8.905.35 Amy MacMahon Greens
Whitsunday NQ First Jason Costigan*0.682.583.26 Amanda Camm Liberal National
Members in italics did not contest in this election.
* Jason Costigan was expelled from the LNP and formed the North Queensland First party in 2019. The margin shown here is the two-party margin Costigan achieved as an LNP candidate at the 2017 state election.

The swing between the major parties in each seat varied across the state. However, Labor managed a small statewide swing to it.

Queenslanders have been known to, at some points in time, vote for Labor on the state level and the LNP on the federal level; in 2019, when the federal Coalition government led by Scott Morrison was unexpectedly re-elected for a third consecutive term, the LNP won 23 of the 30 House of Representatives seats in Queensland and 58.44% of the two-party-preferred vote in the state, with Morrison's victory being credited to a stronger-than-expected performance in Queensland and Tasmania, despite Queensland having a state Labor government.

Ultimately, Labor managed to gain five seats from the LNP, including two Sunshine Coast seats (Caloundra and Nicklin), two seats in smaller regional cities (Bundaberg and Hervey Bay) and one seat in Brisbane (Pumicestone). However, Labor lost the seat of South Brisbane to the Greens, therefore giving Labor a net seat change of +4.

The seat of Bundaberg was won by Labor with a margin of just nine votes, currently the smallest margin of any federal or state electorate in Australia.

Labor's defeat in South Brisbane was significant in two ways. The Greens won their second state seat in Queensland, after winning Maiwar from the LNP in 2017. However, it also led to the defeat of sitting Deputy Premier Jackie Trad. [13] Trad became the first sitting Deputy Premier of Queensland to be unseated since 1947 (when Labor's Ted Walsh was unseated).

One Nation contested 90 seats at this election, but the party's vote dropped dramatically, having almost halved. One Nation finished second in many seats in 2017, but in 2020 the party only finished second in one seat: the Labor-held seat of Bundamba. Nevertheless, One Nation managed to get an increased majority in the only lower house seat in Australia that it currently holds: Mirani (represented by Stephen Andrew since 2017).

While Labor received a small swing to it in most seats, the party did lose some ground to the LNP in a few key seats, including Buderim, Cook, Mackay, Toowoomba North and Whitsunday.

The LNP managed to regain the seat of Whitsunday, where the sitting member (Jason Costigan) was expelled from the LNP and formed his own party, North Queensland First. The LNP candidate, Amanda Camm, managed to win the seat with an increased majority over the Labor Party.

Post-election pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Bundaberg Tom Smith ALP0.01%
Nicklin Robert Skelton ALP0.14%
Hervey Bay Adrian Tantari ALP2.02%
Caloundra Jason Hunt ALP2.51%
Barron River Craig Crawford ALP3.06%
Townsville Scott Stewart ALP3.12%
Thuringowa Aaron Harper ALP3.25%
Redlands Kim Richards ALP3.90%
Mundingburra Les Walker ALP3.93%
Aspley Bart Mellish ALP5.16%
Pumicestone Ali King ALP5.27%
Cairns Michael Healy ALP5.59%
Keppel Brittany Lauga ALP5.63%
Fairly safe
Redcliffe Yvette D'Ath ALP6.11%
Cook Cynthia Lui ALP6.26%
Pine Rivers Nikki Boyd ALP6.70%
Mackay Julieanne Gilbert ALP6.72%
Mansfield Corrine McMillan ALP6.80%
Gaven Meaghan Scanlon ALP7.75%
Springwood Mick de Brenni ALP8.39%
Rockhampton Barry O'Rourke ALP8.62%
Macalister Melissa McMahon ALP9.54%
Capalaba Don Brown ALP9.81%
Safe
Cooper Jonty Bush ALP10.49%
Ferny Grove Mark Furner ALP10.97%
McConnel Grace Grace ALP11.06%
Murrumba Steven Miles ALP11.33%
Bulimba Di Farmer ALP11.39%
Stafford Jimmy Sullivan ALP11.88%
Maryborough Bruce Saunders ALP11.89%
Mulgrave Curtis Pitt ALP12.24%
Mount Ommaney Jess Pugh ALP12.61%
Bancroft Chris Whiting ALP12.80%
Kurwongbah Shane King ALP13.15%
Greenslopes Joe Kelly ALP13.20%
Lytton Joan Pease ALP13.35%
Logan Linus Power ALP13.39%
Miller Mark Bailey ALP13.82%
Ipswich West Jim Madden ALP14.35%
Toohey Peter Russo ALP14.52%
Stretton Duncan Pegg ALP14.82%
Nudgee Leanne Linard ALP15.09%
Waterford Shannon Fentiman ALP16.02%
Ipswich Jennifer Howard ALP16.52%
Morayfield Mark Ryan ALP16.73%
Jordan Charis Mullen ALP17.10%
Sandgate Stirling Hinchliffe ALP17.30%
Algester Leeanne Enoch ALP17.77%
Very safe
Bundamba Lance McCallum ALP20.68% v ONP
Gladstone Glenn Butcher ALP23.49%
Woodridge Cameron Dick ALP26.25%
Inala Annastacia Palaszczuk ALP28.17%
Non-government seats
Marginal
Currumbin Laura Gerber LNP0.52%
Coomera Michael Crandon LNP1.08%
Burleigh Michael Hart LNP1.21%
Chatsworth Steve Minnikin LNP1.29%
Clayfield Tim Nicholls LNP1.55%
Glass House Andrew Powell LNP1.59%
Everton Tim Mander LNP2.24%
Whitsunday Amanda Camm LNP3.26%
Theodore Mark Boothman LNP3.33%
Moggill Christian Rowan LNP3.59%
Ninderry Dan Purdie LNP4.11%
Mermaid Beach Ray Stevens LNP4.39%
Oodgeroo Mark Robinson LNP4.48%
Buderim Brent Mickelberg LNP5.29%
Southport Rob Molhoek LNP5.41%
Fairly safe
Burdekin Dale Last LNP7.05%
Toowoomba North Trevor Watts LNP7.32%
Gympie Tony Perrett LNP8.49%
Maroochydore Fiona Simpson LNP9.12%
Kawana Jarrod Bleijie LNP9.31%
Safe
Bonney Sam O'Connor LNP10.07%
Mudgeeraba Ros Bates LNP10.09%
Toowoomba South David Janetzki LNP10.22%
Burnett Stephen Bennett LNP10.79%
Scenic Rim Jon Krause LNP11.45%
Lockyer Jim McDonald LNP11.52%
Nanango Deb Frecklington LNP12.21%
Southern Downs James Lister LNP14.09%
Callide Colin Boyce LNP15.83%
Surfers Paradise John-Paul Langbroek LNP16.22%
Broadwater David Crisafulli LNP16.57%
Gregory Lachlan Millar LNP17.25%
Condamine Pat Weir LNP19.20%
Very safe
Warrego Ann Leahy LNP23.15%
Crossbench seats
South Brisbane Amy MacMahon GRN5.35% v ALP
Maiwar Michael Berkman GRN6.32% v LNP
Mirani Stephen Andrew ONP8.98% v ALP
Hinchinbrook Nick Dametto KAP14.76% v LNP
Noosa Sandy Bolton IND15.85% v LNP
Hill Shane Knuth KAP22.55% v ALP
Traeger Robbie Katter KAP24.72% v ALP

Background

At the 2017 election, Labor won majority with 48 of 93 seats and formed government in the 56th Queensland Parliament. The LNP won 39 seats and formed opposition. Being allocated to crossbench, the Katter's Australian Party won three seats, One Nation won one seat, the Greens won one seat and Independent Sandy Bolton won the seat of Noosa.

Despite two by-elections, the composition of the 56th Parliament was unchanged, with the exception of the member for Whitsunday Jason Costigan. He was expelled from the LNP over allegations of behavioural impropriety, resulting in him joining the crossbench and eventually forming the North Queensland First party.

Labor has won all but one state election since 1989, and has only been out of government for five years since then. It lost its majority in 1996, giving way to a Coalition minority government that was defeated in 1998. In 2012, it suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the state's history, but regained power in 2015.

This election also marks the first time that both leaders of the current government and opposition have been female in a Queensland state election. [14] It is only the second time it has occurred in an Australian state, territory or federal election, the first time being the 1995 ACT election.

A record number of minor parties and candidates ran in the election, 342 minor party candidates, 69 as independents or not officially endorsed by any party. Labor, the LNP and the Greens ran candidates in every electorate, Pauline Hanson's One Nation ran in 90 electorates. [15]

Electoral system

Queensland has compulsory voting and uses full-preference instant-runoff voting for single-member electorates. The election was conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland (ECQ).

Of the political parties contesting the election, the party, or coalition, that win the majority of seats (at least 47) forms the government.

The party, or coalition that gains the next highest number of seats forms the opposition, with the remaining parties and independents candidates being allocated to the cross bench.

Queensland Parliament is the only unicameral state parliament in Australia. It has just one House—the Legislative Assembly.

Key dates

The election was for all 93 members of the Legislative Assembly. Pursuant to Constitution (Fixed Term Parliament) Amendment Act 2015 Queensland has fixed terms, with all elections following the 2020 vote scheduled every four years on the last Saturday of October. The Governor may call an election earlier than scheduled if the Government does not maintain confidence, or the annual appropriation bill fails to pass.

Under the legislation, the caretaker period commenced on 5 October 2020, 26 days prior to the election date. [16]

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, consideration was given to holding this election as a full postal ballot, [17] but this did not occur. [18] Despite this, a record number of postal votes was cast at the election, with a majority of Queenslanders voting before polling day. [18]

The election timetable is as follows: [19]

DateEvent
6 October 2020 Queensland Parliament dissolved by Governor Paul de Jersey [20]
10 October 2020Close of electoral rolls
11 October 2020Close of nominations
19 October 2020Early voting begins
30 October 2020Early voting ends at 6 pm
31 October 2020Polling day, between the hours of 8 am and 6 pm
10 November 2020Last day for receipt of postal votes by 6 pm

Registered parties

Since the previous election, 2017, six political parties were registered by Queensland's Electoral Commission: Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, North Queensland First, the Animal Justice Party, Clive Palmer's United Australia Party, Informed Medical Options Party, and Legalise Cannabis Queensland.

The following twelve registered parties contested the election, including a record number of minor parties:

Preferences

The LNP confirmed it would preference Labor candidates last on all of its how-to-vote cards. [22] An exception is for Maiwar, a seat held by the Greens, where the LNP put the sitting Greens member below the Labor candidate in the how-to-vote card. [23]

In response to LNP's preferences, Katter's Australia Party announced it would preference Greens candidates last on its party's how-to-vote cards, with party leader Robbie Katter suggesting the LNP's decision would lead to Greens candidates winning a number of seats in Brisbane. [24] Katter's Australia Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation also announced a preference deal on 8 October, with the parties to preference each other in second place on their how-to-vote cards. [25]

Labor confirmed it would preference One Nation last on how-to-vote cards. [23]

Retiring MPs

Labor

Liberal National

Candidates

At the close of nominations on 11 October 2020, 597 candidates had nominated for the state election—the highest number of candidates at a Queensland state election, surpassing the previous record of 453 candidates at the 2017 election. [32]

Leaders' debates

The first leaders' debate of the campaign between Palaszczuk and Frecklington was a People's Forum hosted by Sky News and the Courier Mail and was held on 28 October. [33] The selected audience consisted of undecided voters who post-debate were asked which party they would vote for based on the debate performance of the respective leaders. A majority of 53% opted for Labor, 30% for the LNP, whilst the remaining 17% were undecided. [34]

Polling

Several research, media and polling firms conduct opinion polls during the parliamentary term and prior to the state election in relation to voting. Most firms use an estimate of the flow of preferences at the previous election to determine the two-party-preferred vote; others ask respondents to nominate preferences.

Graphical summary

Primary vote polling for the 2020 Queensland state election.png
Primary vote.
Two-party-preferred vote polling for the 2020 Queensland state election.png
Two-party-preferred vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last state election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

Opinion polling

Voting intention

Legislative Assembly polling
DateFirmPrimary vote 2pp vote
ALPLNPGreen ON OtherALPLNP
31 October 2020 election39.6%35.9%9.5%7.1%7.9%53.2%46.8%
25–30 Oct 2020Newspoll [35] 37%36%11%10%6%51.5%48.5%
12–15 Oct 2020Roy Morgan [36] 36%35%10%12%7%51%49%
9–14 Oct 2020Newspoll [37] 37%37%11%9%6%52%48%
24 Sep–1 Oct 2020YouGov [38] 37%37%12%9%5%52%48%
30 July 2020Newspoll [39] 34%38%12%11%5%49%51%
7 June 2020YouGov [40] 32%38%12%12%6%48%52%
7 February 2020YouGov [41] 34%35%10%15%6%50%50%
30 August 2019YouGov [42] 32%37%13%13%5%49%51%
13–14 February 2019YouGov [43] 35%35%11%8%11%52%48%
7–8 November 2018YouGov [44] 36%34%11%10%9%53%47%
8–9 August 2018YouGov [45] 35%37%11%10%7%51%49%
9–10 May 2018YouGov [46] 38%35%10%12%5%53%47%
7–8 Feb 2018YouGov [47] 37%36%10%10%7%52%48%
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition
25 Nov 2017 election 35.4%33.7%10.0%13.7%7.2%51.2%48.8%
21–24 Nov 2017Newspoll [48] 36%34%10%13%7%52.5%47.5%
24 Nov 2017Galaxy [49] 37%35%9%12%7%52%48%
20 Nov 2017ReachTEL [50] 34%30%10%17%9%51%49%

Better premier and leadership approval polling

Opinion polls conducted for preferred premier
Approval ratings of Annastacia Palaszczuk
Approval ratings of Deb Frecklington
Better premier/approval polling
DateFirmBetter premierPalaszczukFrecklington
PalaszczukFrecklingtonSatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
9–14 Oct 2020Newspoll [51] 56%32%63%33%37%44%
24 Sep–1 Oct 2020YouGov [38] 48%22%57%27%29%32%
21 September 2020Newspoll [52] --63%33%--
30 July 2020Newspoll [53] 57%26%64%29%34%42%
12 June 2020Liberal National Party [54] 42%19%----
7 June 2020YouGov [41] 44%23%49%33%26%29%
7 February 2020YouGov [41] 34%22%29%44%23%33%
30 August 2019YouGov [55] 34%29%34%45%30%30%
13–14 February 2019YouGov [43] 47%27%48%38%31%35%
7–8 November 2018YouGov [44] 43%26%46%37%35%29%
8–9 August 2018YouGov [45] --41%38%31%26%
9–10 May 2018YouGov [46] 47%27%46%38%31%28%
7–8 Feb 2018YouGov [47] 42%31%----
12 December 2017 Deb Frecklington becomes leader of the Liberal National Party and Leader of the Opposition

Electoral district polling

DateFirmElectorateVoting intention 2cp vote
ALP LNP ONP GRN KAP UAP LCA OTH ALP LNP GRN
26 Oct 2020 Newspoll [56] South Brisbane 32.0%24.0%—39.0%————45.5%—54.5%
24 Oct 2020 Newspoll [57] Mansfield 41.0%45.0%2.0%9.0%—0.5%1.5%1.0%50.5%49.5%—
Mundingburra 35.0%32.0%11.0%4.0%14.0%2.0%2.0%—49.5%50.5%—
Pumicestone 45.0%37.0%9.0%6.0%—1.0%2.0%—54.0%46.0%—

Notes

  1. 1 2 At the previous election, Jason Costigan won the Electoral district of Whitsunday under the Liberal National Party, however was expelled from the party in February 2019. [1] After sitting as an Independent MP for over eight-months, Costigan established, and lead, his own party to the election.
  2. ↑ Compared to 2017 election total of Consumer Rights, which was renamed to Civil Liberties and Motorists at the 2020 election.

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A by-election for the electoral district of Inala in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland was held on 16 March 2024 following the resignation of former Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk from parliament, which was announced on 10 December 2023 and took effect on 31 December 2023. The by-election was held on the same day as the Ipswich West by-election and the statewide local government elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Queensland Labor Party leadership election</span>

The 2023 Queensland Labor Party leadership election was held on 15 December 2023 to elect a new leader of the Queensland Labor Party and a Premier of Queensland, following the resignation of Annastacia Palaszczuk as both Premier and MP for Inala. Steven Miles was appointed leader unopposed, while Cameron Dick was appointed Deputy Leader unopposed.

References

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