2022 Victorian state election

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2022 Victorian state election
Flag of Victoria (Australia).svg
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All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 First partySecond partyThird party
  Daniel Andrews 2018.jpg 2015 Matthew Guy MLA b.jpg Samantha Ratnam (cropped).jpg
Leader Daniel Andrews Matthew Guy Samantha Ratnam
Party Labor Liberal/National Coalition Greens
Leader since3 December 2010 7 September 2021 12 October 2017
Leader's seat Mulgrave Bulleen MLC for Northern
Metropolitan
Last election55 seats27 seats3 seats
Seats before55273
Seats won56284
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 1Increase2.svg 1Increase2.svg 1
First preference  vote1,339,4961,260,100420,201
Percentage36.66%34.48%11.50%
SwingDecrease2.svg 6.20Decrease2.svg 0.71Increase2.svg 0.79
TPP 55.00%45.00%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg 2.30Increase2.svg 2.30
2022 Victorian state election.svg
2022 Victoria State Election (Council).svg
Premier before election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

Premier after election

Daniel Andrews
Labor

The 2022 Victorian state election was held on Saturday, 26 November 2022 to elect the 60th Parliament of Victoria. All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) were up for election at the time the writs were issued, however the election in the district of Narracan was deferred due to the death of a candidate.

Contents

Despite a reduction in their primary and two-party-preferred vote, Labor was re-elected in a second consecutive landslide, winning 56 seats in the 88-seat Legislative Assembly, a net increase of one seat from the previous election in 2018. This was the sixth time that a Labor government was re-elected in Victoria, and it was Victorian Labor's second-best seat count at a state election. The Liberal/National Coalition made a net gain of one seat for an overall total of 28 seats: the Liberal Party won 19 seats, a net decrease of two from the previous election, while the Nationals won 9 seats, a net increase of three. The Greens won 4 seats, a net increase of one seat. All incumbent independents failed to retain their seats.

In the Legislative Council, Labor won 15 seats, six short of a majority, and the Coalition won 14 seats. On the crossbench, the Greens won 4 seats, Legalise Cannabis won 2 seats, and one seat each was won by Animal Justice, One Nation, Democratic Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

Following the election, on 5 December 2022, the Third Andrews ministry was sworn in by the Governor. The new government was little-changed following a significant reshuffle earlier in 2022. The following week the Liberal Party elected John Pesutto leader of the party and Opposition Leader in the new parliament, after Guy had earlier stepped down from the position.

The election in the district of Narracan was deferred to 28 January 2023 due to the death of the National Party candidate Shaun Gilchrist on 21 November, five days before the scheduled election. Labor and the National Party did not contest the supplementary election.

For the election (including the supplementary), Victoria had compulsory voting and used majoritarian preferential voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable voting (STV) along with a group voting ticket (GVT) in multi-member seats for the proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council had 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, was 16.7% (one-sixth) of the valid votes cast in that district.

The election was conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC), an independent body answerable to parliament.

Background

Date

Pursuant to the Electoral Act 2002, Victoria has fixed terms, with all elections since the 2006 election held every four years on the last Saturday of November. This means that the date for the election was set for 26 November 2022. This could change only if Parliament had been dissolved unexpectedly beforehand. [2] [3]

Previous election and parliament

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government was returned to power after one term in opposition by winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. The Labor party was decisively re-elected at the 2018 state election with a 5.3% two-party preferred swing, winning 55 seats in the Assembly. This was equal to Victorian Labor's second-best seat count ever at a state election. The Liberal/National Coalition dropped to 27 seats, the Greens won 3 seats and independents won the remaining 3 seats. There were no by-elections for the Assembly in the 59th parliament and the Assembly's composition was otherwise unchanged.

In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 18 of the 40 seats, the Coalition 11 and the remaining seats were won by an array of minor parties. During the term, two Labor MLC's left the party to sit as independents; (Adem Somyurek in June 2020 and Kaushaliya Vaghela in March 2022) while one Liberal MLC (Bernie Finn) was expelled from the party and joined the Democratic Labour Party in June 2022. This left the government with 16 seats in the Legislative Council, and opposition with 10, by the time of the election.

Daniel Andrews and the Labor government was seeking a third four-year term, something only John Cain Jr and Steve Bracks have previously achieved for Labor. Opposition Leader Matthew Guy stood down as Liberal leader several days after the party's poor result at the 2018 election and was replaced by Michael O'Brien. O'Brien's leadership was challenged twice in 2021, the second time resulting in O'Brien being replaced by Guy in a party room vote and Guy returning to the position. [4]

Electoral system

Victorian state elections are conducted by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC). Though Victoria has compulsory voting, at the 2018 election the voter turnout was just over 90%. Victoria uses instant-runoff voting in single-member seats for the Legislative Assembly, and single transferable vote in multi-member seats for the partially proportionally represented Legislative Council. The Legislative Council presently has 40 members serving four-year terms, elected from eight electoral regions each with five members. With each region electing 5 members, the quota in each region for election, after distribution of preferences, is 16.7% (one-sixth plus 1). Victoria is the only jurisdiction in Australia, at a state or federal level, that retains group voting tickets for the election of its upper house, resulting in preferences of voters voting "above-the-line" being transferred by inter-party agreements. Western Australia, the only other state to employ the system, abolished group voting tickets after the 2021 state election. [5]

Redistribution

New electoral district boundaries, compared to those created in the 2014 redistribution, coloured by party vote in the 2018 state election. Lighter shades indicate a notional change in party hold as a result of redistribution, using electoral pendulum by the VEC. 2014 and 2022 Victorian Legislative Assembly electoral district boundaries by 2018 notional results.svg
New electoral district boundaries, compared to those created in the 2014 redistribution, coloured by party vote in the 2018 state election. Lighter shades indicate a notional change in party hold as a result of redistribution, using electoral pendulum by the VEC.

The Electoral Boundaries Commission (EBC) of the Victorian Electoral Commission conducted a redistribution of electoral boundaries as there had been two general elections since the last redistribution. The previous redistribution took place prior to the 2014 election, and the new one was conducted in October 2021. According to commentators, Victoria's "booming population" would see new districts created in outer-suburban and inner-city areas, at the expense of middle-suburban areas. [7] At the 2018 election the voter enrollment in individual districts ranged from 61,814 in Cranbourne [8] to 38,937 in Mount Waverley. [9]

On 30 June 2021, the EBC released draft boundaries for the Victorian Legislative Assembly for the 2022 election. The draft boundaries saw the creation of new electorates and the abolition of current ones. The EBC's final report was released on 28 October 2021.

Changes to electorates of the Legislative Assembly
Electorates abolishedElectorates created
Altona Point Cook
Buninyong Eureka
Burwood Ashwood
Ferntree Gully abolished
Forest Hill Glen Waverley
Mount Waverley
Gembrook Berwick
Pakenham
Keysborough abolished
new seat Laverton
Yuroke Greenvale
Kalkallo

Registered parties

There were 23 parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) on 31 October 2022: [10]

A further 5 applications to register were rejected by the VEC by parties that failed to meet the statutory threshold of 500 registered members: the Australian Democrats, [14] Australian Federation, Fusion, Independence and Indigenous-Aboriginal parties. [15]

In addition, three parties sought to register but later withdrew. Family First Victoria, unrelated to the party of the same name that contested the 2022 South Australian state election, announced it would withdraw its registration on 12 August. [16] On 13 August, the Victorians Party—which had been formally registered by the VEC and had announced a series of candidates―announced it would not contest the election and was later deregistered by the VEC. [17] On 29 September, the Legalise Marijuana Party confirmed it would withdraw after its application was challenged by the Legalise Cannabis Party. [18]

Eight unregistered parties opted to endorse at least one independent candidate:

Candidates and retiring MPs

A record 740 candidates nominated to contest the 88 Legislative Assembly seats at the Victorian election on 26 November, well up on the previous record of 543 candidates in 2014 and the 507 in 2018. The 454 candidates for the Legislative Council is the highest number of upper house candidates in a Victorian election, up from 380 in 2018. [25]

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2022 election:

Labor

Liberal

National

Independent

Campaign and controversies

In the lead-up to the state election, Labor Premier Daniel Andrews committed to reviving the State Electricity Commission (SEC) if re-elected. [48] [49] [50] The government would have a 51% shareholding in the new SEC. [51] Andrews committed to amending the state's constitution to protect public ownership of the revived SEC if re-elected, to make it harder, although not impossible, for it to be privatised again in the future. [52] [53] Re-privatising the commission after such legislation would require a "special majority" of 60% of both the Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council, [54] a situation which already exists for any potential privitisation of water services in Victoria under the Constitution of Victoria. [55]

Matthew Guy and the Liberal Party began their election campaign on 2 November with a press conference that saw Guy unveil their "Ditch Dan" vehicle, a 1970s-era ambulance emblazoned with anti-Andrews slogans & graphics. The vehicle having the "Ambulance" designation above the drivers area caused the head of the Victorian Ambulance Union, Danny Hill, to question the legality of the vehicle as the state's Ambulance Services Act makes it an offence to use the word "ambulance" on any vehicle that is not owned or operated by an ambulance service without written authority of the Department of Health. The ambulance was used to tie into Guy's promise regarding the building of new hospitals and recruiting 40,000 new medical staff. [56] Guy also promised to axe stamp duty for first home buyers on properties up to $1 million for 12 months.

On 8 November, Guy defended his party advertising attacking Dan Andrews for being a "prick", and the use of footage from anti-lockdown protests in Melbourne where protestors urinated on the Shrine of Remembrance and attacked police. [57] [58]

On 10 November, Guy downplayed his deputy David Southwick using two staffers employed by Southwick as actors in campaign ads without disclosing they are members of his campaign staff. When Guy was asked if the use of paid staffers in campaign ads was misleading, Guy replied by endorsing Southwick and stating that "it was not misleading" regardless of the lack of a disclaimer. [59] [60]

On 16 November, Australian Values Party leader Heston Russell leaked a video to the Herald Sun of him to talking to Glenn Druery about a potential preference deal, declaring that the AVP felt the co-ordination of the group voting ticket system used by Druery was immoral and needed to be exposed. [61] This led to calls for the abolition of the group voting ticket, which Matthew Guy has said he would support and asked Andrews to commit to scrapping it, regardless of the election result. Andrews said he would wait until after the previously scheduled electoral reform review, due after the election, before making any changes. [62]

On 17 November, the Victorian Electoral Commission announced that it had referred Guy and his former chief of staff to the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission after it had exhausted attempts to investigate an alleged violation of political donation disclosure laws. [63] The investigation followed a leak of documents showing a proposed contract requiring a Liberal donor to pay a total of $125,000 to the chief of staff's private marketing firm, potentially in breach of the $4,210 limit on donations from individuals or organisations. [64] In a statement outlining the referral, the Victorian electoral commissioner stressed that the VEC had not "received full co-operation from those connected to its investigation". However, Guy denied allegations of wrongdoing and insisted that he had provided material to the VEC. [65] The following day, the Liberals accused the VEC of deliberate electoral interference and an "intent to damage the Liberal Party in the State Election" in a cease and desist letter by the party's lawyers. [66]

On 19 November, the Liberal Party disendorsed Renee Heath, the first ranked candidate for the Liberal ticket in the Eastern Victoria Region of the upper house Victorian Legislative Council, from the party after her conservative religious views, including support for conversion therapy, were bought to light by a newspaper investigation. The decision came too late for Heath to be disendorsed by the party, and her position on the ticket made it an effective certainty that she will win a position in Parliament. Questions were raised over how much Guy and the Liberal Party knew of her views, and the accusations of Entryism made regarding Heath and her family by Liberal member Cathrine Burnett-Wake in her final address to Parliament after Heath defeated her for pre-selection. [67] [68]

Also on 19 November, Angry Victorians candidate and state MP Catherine Cumming declared at an anti-lockdown rally that she wished for Daniel Andrews to be turned into a "red mist". These comments were denounced by both Andrews and Matthew Guy, and led to the Victoria Police opening an investigation into Cumming for alleged promotion of violence. [69] [70]

On 20 November, The Age reported that the Liberal candidate for Narre Warren North, Timothy Dragan, opposed all recognition of Aboriginal people, said that he would vote against any legislation aimed at tackling climate change, would support a total ban on abortion, and that he called Liberal MP Brad Battin, the member for Berwick, a "prick". [71]

Richmond Labor candidate Lauren O'Dwyer had some controversies relating to her Aboriginal heritage claim disputed by some. [72]

On 21 November, Daniel Andrews claimed that there were neo-Nazi candidates running in the election and being recommended preferences on how to vote cards by the Liberal Party. [73] [74]

The only state leaders debate between Andrews and Guy was held on 22 November on Sky News Australia and Sky News Regional. Andrews was declared the winner, with 38% of the vote. [75]

Labor accused a 'Greens-dominated' Darebin Council of removing Labor billboards in the seat of Northcote. [76] [77]

The campaign was notable for the level of 'nastiness', mainly fuelled by fringe right-wing parties and candidates opposed to COVID measures taken by the government. [78]

Polling

Graphical summary

Primary vote (2022)
Two-party-preferred
Preferred Premier
Andrews approval rating
Opposition Leaders approval rating

Voting intention


Legislative Assembly (lower house) polling
DateFirmPrimary vote TPP vote
ALPLIBNATGRNOTHALPL/NP
21 – 24 November 2022Newspoll [79] 38%35%*12%15%54.5%45.5%
22 – 23 November 2022Roy Morgan [80] 38%32.5%*12.5%17% [lower-alpha 2] 55%45%
16 – 21 November 2022Resolve Strategic [81] [lower-alpha 3] 36.2%35.8%*10.1%17.9%52.7%47.3%
9 – 10 November 2022Roy Morgan [82] 40%25.5%3.5%11.5%19.5% [lower-alpha 4] 57%43%
3 – 6 November 2022Freshwater Strategy [83] 37%34%*14%15%56%44%
31 October – 6 November 2022RedBridge [84] 38%38%*14%11%53.5%46.5%
28 October – 6 November 2022Lonergan Research [85] 42%29%*19%11%——
31 October – 3 November 2022Newspoll [86] 37%37%*13%13%54%46%
23 October 2022Resolve Strategic [87] [lower-alpha 5] 38%31%*12%18%——
18 October 2022Roy Morgan [88] 42%26%2%14.5%15.5% [lower-alpha 6] 60.5%39.5%
18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [89] [lower-alpha 5] 42%28%*12%18%——
11 – 13 September 2022Roy Morgan [90] 36.5%29.5%*14%20.5% [lower-alpha 7] 58%42%
31 August – 7 September 2022Essential [91] 35.3%32.2%*10.2%—56% [92] 44% [92]
22 – 25 August 2022Newspoll [93] 41%36%*13%10%56%44%
11 – 13 August 2022Roy Morgan [94] 40.5%27.5%*14%18% [lower-alpha 8] 60.5%39.5%
30 June – 2 July 2022Roy Morgan [95] 43.5%29.5%2.5%12%15% [lower-alpha 9] 59.5%40.5%
3 April 2022Resolve Strategic [96] [lower-alpha 5] 37%33%*10%19%——
15 January 2022Resolve Strategic [97] [lower-alpha 5] 41%31%*11%17%——
24 November 2021Roy Morgan [98] 45%27%2%10.5%15.5% [lower-alpha 10] 59.5%40.5%
11 – 17 November 2021Newspoll [99] 44%36%*11%9%58%42%
12 November 2021Roy Morgan [100] 43%28%3%11%15% [lower-alpha 11] 58%42%
24 October 2021Resolve Strategic [101] [lower-alpha 5] 38%34%*10%18%——
7 September 2021 Matthew Guy becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
22 August 2021Resolve Strategic [102] [lower-alpha 5] 40%35%*10%15%——
12 – 15 June 2021RedBridge [103] [104] 37%38%3%12%10%52.4%47.6%
13 June 2021Resolve Strategic [105] [lower-alpha 5] 37%36%*9%17%——
9 – 10 November 2020Roy Morgan [106] 45%30.5%4%11%9.5%58.5%41.5%
29 October – 4 November 2020YouGov [107] 44%40%*11%5%55%45%
12 – 13 October 2020Roy Morgan [108] 40%36%4%9%6%51.5%48.5%
28 – 29 September 2020Roy Morgan [109] 39%37%2.5%10%6%51.5%48.5%
15 – 17 September 2020Roy Morgan [110] 37%35%3.5%12%8.5%51.5%48.5%
6 December 2018 Michael O'Brien becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition
24 November 2018 election 42.9%30.4%4.8%10.7%11.2%57.3%42.7%
23 November 2018Newspoll [111] 41%40%*11%8%53.5%46.5%
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [112]

Preferred Premier and satisfaction

Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
DateFirmBetter PremierAndrewsGuy
Andrews Guy SatisfiedDissatisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfied
21 – 24 November 2022Newspoll [79] 51%35%46%48%31%56%
16 – 21 November 2022Resolve Strategic [81] 48%34%N/A
9 – 10 November 2022Roy Morgan [94] 65.5%34.5%58.5%41.5%N/A
3 – 6 November 2022Freshwater Strategy [83] 40%28%39%48%32%48%
31 October – 3 November 2022Newspoll [86] 52%33%51%44%32%52%
28 October 2022Resolve Strategic [87] 49%29%N/A
18 September 2022Resolve Strategic [89] 46%28%N/A
22 – 25 August 2022Newspoll [93] 51%34%54%41%32%49%
11 – 13 August 2022Roy Morgan [94] 66%34%62.5%37.5%N/A
30 June – 2 July 2022Roy Morgan [95] 64.5%35.5%63.5%36.5%N/A
3 April 2022Resolve Strategic [96] 48%31%N/A
15 January 2022Resolve Strategic [97] 47%30%N/A
24 November 2021Roy Morgan [98] N/A63.5%36.5%N/A
17 November 2021Newspoll [99] 54%33%56%42%34%42%
11 November 2021Roy Morgan [100] N/A60.5%39.5%N/A
24 October 2021Resolve Strategic [101] 45%32%N/A
20 – 24 October 2021Essential [113] not asked52%40%not asked
15 – 18 September 2021Newspoll [114] not asked64%35%not asked
7 September 2021 Guy replaces O'BrienAndrews O'Brien AndrewsO'Brien
22 August 2021Resolve Strategic [102] 50%24%N/A
12 – 15 June 2021RedBridge [103] [104] 42.4%23.1%49.7%46.5%36.1%44%
13 June 2021Resolve Strategic [105] 49%23%42%32%14%22%
11 – 16 November 2020Essential [115] not asked65%28%not asked
9 – 10 November 2020Roy Morgan [106] not asked71%29%not asked
29 October – 4 November 2020YouGov [107] not asked65%32%26%53%
28 October – 2 November 2020Essential [116] not asked61%33%not asked
19 – 21 October 2020Ipsos [117] 53%18%52%33%15%39%
14 – 19 October 2020Essential [118] not asked54%40%not asked
12 – 13 October 2020Roy Morgan [108] not asked59%41%not asked
29 – 30 September 2020Roy Morgan [109] not asked61%39%not asked
16 – 19 September 2020Newspoll [119] not asked62%35%not asked
8 – 9 September 2020Roy Morgan [120] not asked70%30%not asked
15 – 18 July 2020Newspoll [121] not asked57%37%not asked
24 – 28 June 2020Newspoll [122] not asked67%27%not asked
21 – 26 April 2020Newspoll [123] not asked75%17%not asked
6 December 2018 O'Brien replaces GuyAndrewsGuyAndrewsGuy
24 November 2018 election ––––––
24 – 28 October 2018Newspoll [124] 45%29%45%40%31%46%
22 – 24 October 2018YouGovnot asked44%35%24%42%
7 October 2018ReachTEL [125] 51.3%48.7%not asked
11 – 13 September 2018YouGov [126] not asked40%42%25%44%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
† Participants were forced to choose.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian . [112]

Newspaper endorsements

Prior to the election, several newspapers around the country published editorials endorsing the party they believed should win. News Corp's Melbourne tabloid the Herald Sun , and its Sunday edition the Sunday Herald Sun endorsed the Coalition. News Corp's national masthead The Australian gave an endorsement to the Coalition. The company has been accused by several other media outlets of biased coverage against the Labor Party and Premier Daniel Andrews, with former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd describing their electoral coverage as "dog-whistling to conspiracy theorists". [127] [128]

Nine Entertainment's national masthead the Australian Financial Review endorsed the Coalition, while Nine's Melbourne-based The Age endorsed Labor. Although the paper conceded that Andrews had become "arrogant", his party offered the better plan for the state.

Weekend editions

NewspaperOwnerEndorsement
Sunday Herald-Sun News Corp Coalition [129]
The Sunday Age Nine Entertainment No Endorsement given

Metropolitan dailies

NewspaperOwnerEndorsement
The Age Nine EntertainmentLabor [130]
The Australian News CorpCoalition [131]
Australian Financial Review Nine EntertainmentCoalition [132]
Herald Sun News CorpCoalition [133]

Online publications

NewspaperOwnerEndorsement
Guardian Australia Guardian Media Group No Endorsement given
Green Left Weekly Green Left WeeklyNo Endorsement given

Results

Winning party by electorate. 2022 VIC state election.svg
Winning party by electorate.
Change in Two-Party-Preferred vote by electorate compared to 2018. Map of Change in Two-Party-Preferred Vote in Victorian Election 2022.svg
Change in Two-Party-Preferred vote by electorate compared to 2018.

Legislative Assembly

↓ 
564919
ALPGRNNATLIB
Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV) [134]
2022 Victorian Legislative Assembly.svg
PartyVotes %SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 1,339,49636.66−6.2056Increase2.svg1
   Liberal 1,087,41329.76−0.6719Decrease2.svg 2
  National 172,6874.73−0.049Increase2.svg 3
Coalition total 1,260,10034.48−0.7128Increase2.svg 1
  Greens 420,20111.50+0.794Increase2.svg 1
  Family First 111,4783.05+3.050Steady2.svg
  Animal Justice 91,6462.51+0.690Steady2.svg
  Freedom 64,0661.75+1.750Steady2.svg
  Victorian Socialists 48,8651.34+0.900Steady2.svg
  Democratic Labour 45,0261.23+0.540Steady2.svg
  Liberal Democrats 14,1160.39+0.270Steady2.svg
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 11,5880.32−0.370Steady2.svg
  Reason 10,9070.30−0.060Steady2.svg
  One Nation 10,3230.28+0.280Steady2.svg
  Justice 7,9270.22−0.040Steady2.svg
  Legalise Cannabis 5,8380.16+0.160Steady2.svg
  New Democrats 4,8740.13+0.130Steady2.svg
  Angry Victorians 3,0370.08+0.080Steady2.svg
  Health Australia 8620.02+0.020Steady2.svg
  Transport Matters 6050.02−0.270Steady2.svg
 Companions and Pets5260.01+0.010Steady2.svg
  Independents 202,7245.55−0.520Decrease2.svg 3
Total valid votes3,654,20594.46–––
Invalid/blank votes214,4105.54–––
Total3,868,615100–88Steady2.svg
Registered voters / Turnout4,394,46588.03–––
Two-party-preferred vote*
Labor 1,989,35055.00−2.3056Increase2.svg 1
Coalition 1,627,65045.00+2.3028Increase2.svg 1

* TPP vote total excludes the electoral district of Narracan, which was not contested by Labor. TPP votes are calculated based on the estimate provided by the ABC election computer overseen by Antony Green. [135]

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not re-contest their Legislative Assembly seats at this election.

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Bass Liberal Notional [lower-alpha 12] 0.7–1.00.3 Jordan Crugnale Labor
Bayswater Liberal Notional [lower-alpha 13] 0.6–4.64.0 Jackson Taylor Labor
Glen Waverley Liberal Neil Angus 0.94.13.2 John Mullahy Labor
Hastings Liberal Neale Burgess 0.01.21.2 Paul Mercurio Labor
Hawthorn Labor John Kennedy 0.62.31.7 John Pesutto Liberal
Mildura Independent Ali Cupper 0.01.31.3 Jade Benham National
Morwell Independent Notional4.0–8.84.8 Martin Cameron National
Nepean Labor Chris Brayne 0.77.46.7 Sam Groth Liberal
Richmond Labor Richard Wynne 5.813.17.4 Gabrielle de Vietri Greens
Shepparton Independent Suzanna Sheed 5.310.45.1 Kim O'Keeffe National
Results of the 2022 election with held and gained seats Victorian 2022 Election Holds and Gains.png
Results of the 2022 election with held and gained seats

The statewide swing against Labor in the primary vote and two-party-preferred vote was mainly concentrated in safe Labor seats in western Melbourne, where Labor members of the Legislative Assembly were re-elected with reduced majorities. Conversely, there was a smaller swing towards Labor in more marginal seats in Melbourne's east. [136] [137] [138] Ultimately, the Labor Party lost the seats of Hawthorn and Nepean to the Liberal Party, as well as the seat of Richmond to the Greens, but won the seats of Glen Waverley and Hastings (the latter notionally almost tied following redistribution) from the Liberal Party.

The Labor-held seats of Bass and Bayswater, which were made notionally Liberal following redistribution, were retained by their Labor incumbents. The Liberal-held seat of Ripon, which was made notionally Labor following redistribution, was won by the Labor candidate. The independent seat of Morwell, which was made notionally Labor following redistribution, was won by the Nationals candidate.

No independent candidates were elected, with all incumbent independents defeated by the Nationals.

It is said by some experts that Labor's State Electricity Commission of Victoria policy had helped Labor win the election. [139] [140]

District of Narracan supplementary election

On 21 November, it was reported that the Nationals candidate for the district of Narracan, Shaun Gilchrist, died suddenly. Under electoral law, this means that the lower house election for Narracan has been declared as "failed" by the Victorian Electoral Commission. [141] A supplementary election was held for that seat on 28 January 2023. [1] The upper house election for that district (within the Eastern Victoria Region) was held as scheduled on 26 November.

Labor and the Nationals did not recontest the supplementary election. Animal Justice Party and Family First Victoria nominated new candidates for the supplementary election. [142] The Liberal party retained Narracan with a slightly increased margin.

Legislative Council

Legislative Council (STV/GVT) – (CV) [143] [144]
2022 Victorian Legislative Council.svg
PartyVotes %SwingSeatsChange
  Labor 1,238,71033.01–6.2115Decrease2.svg 3
   Liberal (metropolitan)636,48516.96–0.198Increase2.svg 1
  Liberal/National joint ticket 468,28912.48+0.21
  Liberal (regional)4Increase2.svg 1
  National 2Increase2.svg 1
Coalition total 1,104,77429.44+0.0214Increase2.svg 3
  Greens 387,19010.32+1.074Increase2.svg 3
  Legalise Cannabis 153,3474.09+4.092Increase2.svg 2
  Democratic Labour 131,6003.51+1.411Increase2.svg 1
  Liberal Democrats 99,0542.64+0.141Decrease2.svg 1
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers 76,7422.05−0.971Steady2.svg
  One Nation 76,7342.04+2.041Increase2.svg 1
  Family First 75,2832.01+2.010Steady2.svg
  Justice 57,3811.53–2.220Decrease2.svg 3
  Animal Justice 56,8191.51–0.961Steady2.svg
  Victorian Socialists 52,2451.39+0.480Steady2.svg
  Reason 47,0701.25–0.120Decrease2.svg 1
  Freedom 39,9101.06+1.060Steady2.svg
  Restore Democracy Sack Dan Andrews 31,2620.83+0.830Steady2.svg
  United Australia 31,0430.83+0.830Steady2.svg
  Health Australia 21,6940.58–0.210Steady2.svg
  Sustainable Australia 17,5370.47–0.360Decrease2.svg 1
 Companions and Pets16,4640.44+0.440Steady2.svg
  Angry Victorians 14,8960.40+0.400Steady2.svg
  Transport Matters 10,6050.28–0.340Decrease2.svg 1
  New Democrats 7,7430.21+0.210Steady2.svg
  Independents and ungrouped 4,3030.11+0.040Steady2.svg
Total valid votes3,752,40696.78–––
Invalid/blank votes124,7263.22–––
Total3,877,132100.00–40Steady2.svg
Registered voters / Turnout4,394,46588.23–––

The result in the Legislative Council meant the Labor Party and the left-leaning parties (namely the Greens, Legalise Cannabis, and Animal Justice) had a majority of seats in the chamber; 22 out of 40. After losing four out of five members via the group voting ticket system in the 2018 election, the Greens quadrupled their presence in the chamber. Notable results included the defeat of Reason Party leader Fiona Patten in the Northern Metropolitan region, defeated by former Labor minister and Democratic Labour Party candidate Adem Somyurek for the last position in the region, as well as the election of two Legalise Cannabis MPs to the parliament for the first time in the state's history. One Nation also elected its first state representative in Victoria. [145] [146]

Legislative Council seats table

Seat totals as noted by the Victorian Electoral Commission. [147]

RegionSeats won
Eastern Victoria      
North-Eastern Metropolitan      
Northern Metropolitan      
Northern Victoria      
South-Eastern Metropolitan   LC  
Southern Metropolitan      
Western Metropolitan   LC  
Western Victoria      

Party key:

  Labor
  Liberal
  Greens
  National
  Legalise Cannabis
  Democratic Labour
  Liberal Democrats
  Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
  One Nation
  Animal Justice

Electoral pendulum

The state underwent a periodic review of its electoral boundaries which was completed in October 2021. [148]

In August 2022, the Victorian Electoral Commission published a report with its own estimates of the results on the new electoral boundary margins. [6] In September 2022, Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) election analyst Antony Green released the seat classifications and new electoral pendulum used by the ABC, which are listed below. [149]

Pre-election pendulum

Members in italics did not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they held or its replacement. However, Will Fowles, Brad Battin and Sarah Connolly contested a different seat to the one they held or its replacement. Lizzie Blandthorn moved to contest the Legislative Council. See the footnotes for details.

Extended content
Labor seats (56)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Hawthorn John Kennedy ALP0.6%
Nepean Chris Brayne ALP0.7%
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP1.7% v GRN
Ashwood Will Fowles [lower-alpha 14] ALP2.0%
Pakenham Brad Battin (Lib) [lower-alpha 15] ALP2.2%
Ripon Louise Staley (Lib)ALP2.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP3.0%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP3.1%
Ringwood Dustin Halse ALP3.2%
Morwell Russell Northe (IND)ALP4.0%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP5.0%
Richmond Richard Wynne ALP5.8% v GRN
Fairly safe
Monbulk James Merlino ALP7.1%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP8.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP9.1% v IND
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP9.3%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP9.6%
Safe
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP10.2%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP10.3%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP10.4%
Narre Warren North Luke Donnellan ALP10.4%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP11.0%
Bellarine Lisa Neville ALP11.4%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP11.4%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP12.0%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP12.1%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP12.3%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP12.5%
Point Cook Jill Hennessy ALP12.8%
Albert Park Martin Foley ALP13.1%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP13.4%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP13.4%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP14.5%
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP14.9%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP15.8%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP15.8%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP16.0%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP16.2%
Yan Yean Danielle Green ALP16.9%
Tarneit Sarah Connolly [lower-alpha 16] ALP17.9%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP18.3%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP18.6%
Lara John Eren ALP19.1%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP19.9%
Very safe
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP20.9%
Preston Robin Scott ALP21.3% v GRN
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP22.0%
Greenvale New seatALP22.0%
Pascoe Vale Lizzie Blandthorn [lower-alpha 17] ALP22.3%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP23.1%
Laverton New seatALP23.4%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP24.9%
Broadmeadows Frank McGuire ALP25.2%
Kororoit Marlene Kairouz ALP25.3%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP27.4%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP27.6%
Liberal/National seats (27)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Hastings Neale Burgess LIB0.00%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB0.04%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB0.4%
Brighton James Newbury LIB0.5%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor (ALP)LIB0.6%
Bass Jordan Crugnale (ALP)LIB0.7%
Glen Waverley Neil Angus LIB0.9%
Croydon David Hodgett LIB1.0%
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB1.0%
Berwick New seatLIB1.3%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB1.8%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB2.0%
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB2.6% v IND
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB3.2%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB3.8%
Kew Tim Smith LIB4.7%
Mornington David Morris LIB5.0%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB5.5%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB5.5%
Fairly safe
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB6.0%
Safe
Narracan Gary Blackwood LIB10.0%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT12.1%
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT14.2%
Euroa Steph Ryan NAT15.8%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT17.6%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT21.1%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT24.0%
Crossbench seats (5)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Mildura Ali Cupper IND0.00% v NAT
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN1.7% v ALP
Brunswick Tim Read GRN2.0% v ALP
Shepparton Suzanna Sheed IND5.3% v LIB
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN8.2% v LIB

Post-election pendulum

Extended content
Labor seats (56)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP0.2% v GRN
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP1.4%
Pascoe Vale Anthony Cianflone ALP2.0% v GRN
Preston Nathan Lambert ALP2.1% v GRN
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP4.2%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP4.2% v GRN
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP4.6%
Fairly safe
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP6.2%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP6.7%
Greenvale Iwan Walters ALP7.1%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP7.2%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP7.2%
Ringwood Will Fowles ALP7.5%
Monbulk Daniela De Martino ALP7.6%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP8.0%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP8.2%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP8.3%
Point Cook Mathew Hilakari ALP8.3%
Bellarine Alison Marchant ALP8.5%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP8.7%
Narre Warren North Belinda Wilson ALP8.7%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP8.8%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP9.0%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP9.0%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP9.5%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP9.6%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP9.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman ALP9.8%
Safe
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP10.2%
Mulgrave Daniel Andrews ALP10.8% v IND
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP10.8%
Werribee Tim Pallas ALP10.9%
Albert Park Nina Taylor ALP11.2%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP11.6%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP11.9%
Tarneit Dylan Wight ALP12.3%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP12.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP12.7%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP13.0%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP13.4%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP13.5%
Kororoit Luba Grigorovitch ALP14.5%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP14.6%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP14.7%
Broadmeadows Kathleen Matthews-Ward ALP15.5%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP15.8%
Lara Ella George ALP15.9%
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP16.5%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP18.3%
Laverton Sarah Connolly ALP18.4%
Liberal/National seats (28)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Marginal
Mornington Chris Crewther LIB0.7% v IND
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB0.9% v IND
Mildura Jade Benham NAT1.2% v IND
Croydon David Hodgett LIB1.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB1.7%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB1.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB2.1%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB3.7%
Kew Jess Wilson LIB4.0%
Warrandyte Ryan Smith LIB4.3%
Morwell Martin Cameron NAT4.4%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB4.7%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB5.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB5.1%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB5.9%
Fairly safe
Nepean Sam Groth LIB6.4%
Shepparton Kim O'Keeffe NAT6.8% v IND
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB7.0%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB8.0%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB8.1%
Euroa Annabelle Cleeland NAT9.9%
Safe
Narracan [lower-alpha 18] Wayne Farnham LIB13.0% v IND
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT15.6%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT17.8%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT23.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT24.6%
Crossbench seats (4)
SeatMemberPartyMargin
Fairly safe
Richmond Gabrielle de Vietri GRN7.3% v ALP
Safe
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN10.2% v ALP
Prahran Sam Hibbins GRN12.0% v LIB
Brunswick Tim Read GRN13.7% v ALP

Notes

  1. ↑ The election in the seat of Narracan was deferred to 28 January 2023. [1]
  2. ↑ UAP 0.5%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 4.5%, Other parties 11.0%
  3. ↑ TPP calculated from respondent nominated preferences and results to one decimal place provided pre-election by Resolve Strategic
  4. ↑ UAP 0.5%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 4.5%, Other parties 13.5%
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 TPP vote not calculated
  6. ↑ One Nation 2%, UAP 1%, Liberal Democrats 1%, AJP 1%, SFF 0.5%, Justice 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0.5%, "teal independents" 1%, other Independent 7%, Other parties 1%
  7. ↑ One Nation 2%, Liberal Democrats 1.5%, AJP 1%, Justice 0.5%, SFF 0.5%, UAP 0.5%, Legalise Cannabis Australia 0.5%, Independent 6.5%, Other 7.5%
  8. ↑ UAP 2%, Justice 1.5%, "teal independents" 5%, Other 9.5%
  9. ↑ UAP 2%, Justice 1%, "teal independents" 3%, Other 9%
  10. ↑ UAP 4%, Justice 2%, Other 9.5%
  11. ↑ UAP 3%, Justice 2%, Other 10%
  12. ↑ Jordan Crugnale was elected as the MP for Bass at the 2018 Victorian state election for the Australian Labor Party. However, redistribution by the Victorian Electoral Commission has resulted in the district notionally Liberal.
  13. ↑ Jackson Taylor was elected as the MP for Bayswater at the 2018 Victorian state election for the Australian Labor Party. However, redistribution by the Victorian Electoral Commission has resulted in the district notionally Liberal.
  14. ↑ Will Fowles would contest Ringwood at the election.
  15. ↑ Brad Battin would contest Berwick at the election.
  16. ↑ Sarah Connolly would contest Laverton at the election.
  17. ↑ Lizzie Blandthorn would contest the Western Metropolitan Region in the Legislative Council.
  18. ↑ Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.

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