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Elections in Nevada |
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Nevadaportal |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, elected in 2018 over incumbent Republican Dean Heller, is seeking a second term in office. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on June 11, 2024. [1]
A typical swing state, Nevada is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Nevada by about two percentage points. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, majorities in both state legislative chambers, and all but one seat in its congressional delegation, while Republicans flipped the governorship in 2022. [2] [3] [4]
As of April 2024, no Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012. This race is considered to be highly competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls show Rosen to be the favorite to win. [5]
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Jacky Rosen (D) | $24,321,665 | $11,288,943 | $13,210,912 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [37] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jacky Rosen (incumbent) | |||
Democratic | Mike Schaefer | |||
Democratic | Troy Walker | |||
Total votes |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sam Brown | Bill Conrad | Tony Grady | Jeff Gunter | Ronda Kennedy | Barry Lindemann | Jim Marchant | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Terrance Group [upper-alpha 1] | May 13–16, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | – | – | 14% | – | – | 7% | 27% |
Terrance Group [upper-alpha 1] | April 7–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 58% | – | 3% | 3% | – | – | 6% | 29% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 296 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 39% | – | – | – | – | – | 26% | 35% |
Tarrance Group [upper-alpha 1] | October 23–26, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 24% | – | 5% | 1% | – | – | 9% | 41% |
Public Opinion Strategies [upper-alpha 2] | August 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 33% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 15% | 44% |
Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sam Brown (R) | $5,440,210 | $3,139,324 | $2,300,886 |
Tony Grady Jr (R) | $234,141 | $199,469 | $34,673 |
Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R) | $3,276,169 | $706,359 | $2,569,810 |
Ronda Kennedy (R) [lower-alpha 2] | $4,873 | $4,226 | $647 |
Jim Marchant (R) | $394,359 | $343,713 | $50,646 |
Stephanie Phillips (R) | $56,448 | $48,412 | $8,035 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [37] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sam Brown | |||
Republican | William Conrad | |||
Republican | Tony Grady Jr. | |||
Republican | Jeffrey Ross Gunter | |||
Republican | Edward Hamilton | |||
Republican | Ronda Kennedy | |||
Republican | Barry Lindemann | |||
Republican | Garn Mabey | |||
Republican | Jim Marchant | |||
Republican | Gary Marinch | |||
Republican | Stephanie Phillips | |||
Republican | Vincent Rego | |||
Republican | Shawn White | |||
Total votes |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [61] | Tossup | April 3, 2024 |
Inside Elections [62] | Tilt D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [63] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [64] | Lean D | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [65] | Tilt D | November 21, 2023 |
Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Jacky Rosen (D) | Sam Brown (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 35% | 8% | 9% |
494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 37% | 7% | 8% | ||
Siena College [upper-alpha 3] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% | ||
Emerson College [upper-alpha 4] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 37% | – | 18% |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 39% | – | 21% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 35% | – | 24% |
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
Change Research (D) | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (V) | – | 39% | 38% | 0% | 23% |
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] | October 23–26, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 40% | 5% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Jacky Rosen (D) | Jim Marchant (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 34% | – | 22% |
Noble Predictive Insights | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Jacky Rosen (D) | Jeff Gunter (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [upper-alpha 4] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 33% | – | 21% |
Emerson College | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
Emerson College | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 32% | – | 25% |
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