2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

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2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
Flag of Ohio.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
  Sherrod Brown 117th Congress (2) (cropped).jpg Bernie Moreno by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Nominee Sherrod Brown Bernie Moreno
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024. [1] Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office, [2] while the Republican Party nominated former car dealer Bernie Moreno. [3] This race is one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators are seeking re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. [4]

Contents

Background

Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net a gain of one seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation. [5] [6]

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points. [7] [8]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (now governor), and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018. [9] [10] [11] Despite Ohio becoming a reliably Republican state in recent years, Brown has remained popular among his constituents. Because of this, the race is considered to be a tossup; however, most polls show Brown to be the favorite to win. [12]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D)$27,838,244$14,594,991$14,614,497
Source: Federal Election Commission [32]

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown
Shontel
Brown
Tim
Ryan
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023256 (LV) [lower-alpha 2] ± 8.3%58%6%15%21%
Ohio Northern University Jul 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%59%7%17%17%

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent) 535,305 100.00%
Total votes535,305 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Failed to qualify

  • Doug Stuart, retired businessman [36] [37]

Declined

Debates

No.DateHostModeratorLinkCandidates
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Matt DolanFrank LaRoseBernie Moreno
1Jan. 22, 2024 FOX 8 Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey
FOX 8 PPP
2Feb. 19, 2024 Spectrum News Mike Kallmeyer Spectrum News PPP
3Mar. 6, 2024 WLWT Sheree Paolello YouTube PPP

Endorsements

Matt Dolan
U.S. senators
Governors
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Frank LaRose
U.S. representatives
State representatives
Political parties
Organizations
Bernie Moreno
U.S. presidents
U.S. ambassadors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Declined to endorse

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Matt Dolan (R)$11,425,814 [lower-alpha 3] $9,089,493$2,383,077
Bernie Moreno (R)$9,735,460 [lower-alpha 4] $7,338,751$2,396,709
Frank LaRose (R)$2,217,016 [lower-alpha 5] $1,625,972$591,043
Source: Federal Election Commission [32]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Matt
Dolan
Frank
LaRose
Bernie
Moreno
OtherUndecided
Emerson College March 17–18, 2024450 (LV)± 4.6%40%16%44%
Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University
March 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%31%19%29%21%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 2024<1,298 (LV)± 4.6%39%27%34%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] March 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%18%16%22%44%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2024443 (LV)± 2.6%26%16%23%3%32%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] February 27 – March 3, 2024568 (LV)± 4.6%27%21%29%23%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates [upper-alpha 3] February 25–26, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%19%21%31%27%
Emerson College January 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%15%21%22%42%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 4] December 12–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%16%18%22%44%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] December 8–12, 2023573 (LV)± 4.6%18%33%12%1% [lower-alpha 6] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates [upper-alpha 3] December 3–5, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%18%19%23%40%
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 3] November 18–20, 2023950 (LV)± 3.18%13%14%15%58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023468 (LV)± 4.5%15%18%10%32% [lower-alpha 7] 25%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023294 (LV)± 6.0%20%30%7%0% [lower-alpha 8] 43%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023269 (LV) [lower-alpha 9] ± 8.2%13%30%7%2%49%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%18%32%7%1%43%
Suffolk/USA Today July 9–12, 2023190 (RV)14%19%9%57%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023405 (RV)± 4.0%14%17%7%4%58%
Causeway Solutions (R) [upper-alpha 5] May 19–27, 2023526 (RV)± 2.5%11%24%6%17%42%

Results

Results by county:
Moreno
40-50%
50-60%
60-70% 2024 Ohio Senate Republican primary results map.svg
Results by county:
  Moreno
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
Vote share of Bernie Moreno (left), Matt Dolan (center), Frank LaRose (right) by counties 2024 Ohio US Senate Republican primary election, candidate vote share.svg
Vote share of Bernie Moreno (left), Matt Dolan (center), Frank LaRose (right) by counties
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Bernie Moreno 557,626 50.48%
Republican Matt Dolan 363,01332.86%
Republican Frank LaRose 184,11116.67%
Total votes1,104,750 100.00%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [85] TossupNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [86] TossupNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [87] TossupNovember 9, 2023
Elections Daily [88] TossupMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [89] TossupDecember 21, 2023

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.

Bernie Moreno (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. ambassadors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Bernie
Moreno (R)
OtherUndecided
March 19, 2024Primary elections held
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University March 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%47%36%17%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.2%45%41%3%12%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] March 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%43%37%20%
Emerson College March 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6%39%34%6%21%
Emerson College January 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%39%37%5%18%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%32%26%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023597 (LV)± 4.0%47%44%9%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%48%26%1%25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023438 (RV)± 4.5%35%33%32%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%45%28%0%27%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%48%41%10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023805 (RV)± 4.0%46%42%2%11%
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Matt
Dolan (R)
OtherUndecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University March 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%45%41%14%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.2%41%43%4%12%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] March 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%42%39%18%
Emerson College March 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6%37%34%7%22%
Emerson College January 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%38%37%5%20%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%38%22%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023597 (LV)± 4.0%47%46%7%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%45%30%0%25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023438 (RV)± 4.5%36%38%26%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%45%33%0%22%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%46%43%11%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023805 (RV)± 4.0%45%44%4%7%
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Frank
LaRose (R)
OtherUndecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University March 13–15, 2024818 (RV)± 3.4%48%37%15%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 20241,298 (LV)± 3.2%45%40%4%12%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] March 6–11, 2024533 (LV)± 3.3%44%36%19%
Emerson College March 7–10, 20241,300 (RV)± 2.6%39%33%7%21%
Emerson College January 23–25, 20241844 (RV)± 2.3%39%37%6%18%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%36%24%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023597 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%8%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023668 (RV)± 3.8%44%31%0%25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023438 (RV)± 4.5%38%39%23%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023675 (RV)± 3.7%45%32%0%23%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%45%45%10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023805 (RV)± 4.0%44%42%4%11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Joel
Mutchler (R)
OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023597 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%-9%
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R) [upper-alpha 5] May 19–27, 20231639 (RV)± 2.5%39%37%24%

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent)
Republican Bernie Moreno
Total votes

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
  3. $9,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
  4. $4,200,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
  5. $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
  6. Joel Mutchler with 1%
  7. "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
  8. Joel Mutchler with 0%
  9. A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Center for Election Science
  3. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose

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