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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024. [1] Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office, [2] while the Republican Party nominated former car dealer Bernie Moreno. [3] This race is one of two 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators are seeking re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024. [4]
Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net a gain of one seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation. [5] [6]
Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points. [7] [8]
Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (now governor), and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018. [9] [10] [11] Despite Ohio becoming a reliably Republican state in recent years, Brown has remained popular among his constituents. Because of this, the race is considered to be a tossup; however, most polls show Brown to be the favorite to win. [12]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sherrod Brown (D) | $27,838,244 | $14,594,991 | $14,614,497 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [32] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown | Shontel Brown | Tim Ryan | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 256 (LV) [lower-alpha 2] | ± 8.3% | 58% | 6% | 15% | 21% |
Ohio Northern University | Jul 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 59% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | 535,305 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 535,305 | 100.00% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Candidates | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | |||||
1 | Jan. 22, 2024 | FOX 8 | Colleen Marshall Joe Toohey | FOX 8 | P | P | P |
2 | Feb. 19, 2024 | Spectrum News | Mike Kallmeyer | Spectrum News | P | P | P |
3 | Mar. 6, 2024 | WLWT | Sheree Paolello | YouTube | P | P | P |
Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Matt Dolan (R) | $11,425,814 [lower-alpha 3] | $9,089,493 | $2,383,077 |
Bernie Moreno (R) | $9,735,460 [lower-alpha 4] | $7,338,751 | $2,396,709 |
Frank LaRose (R) | $2,217,016 [lower-alpha 5] | $1,625,972 | $591,043 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [32] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Matt Dolan | Frank LaRose | Bernie Moreno | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College | March 17–18, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 16% | 44% | – | |
Mainstreet Research/ Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 31% | 19% | 29% | – | 21% |
East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | <1,298 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 39% | 27% | 34% | – | |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 18% | 16% | 22% | – | 44% |
Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 443 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 26% | 16% | 23% | 3% | 32% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] | February 27 – March 3, 2024 | 568 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 21% | 29% | – | 23% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates [upper-alpha 3] | February 25–26, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 19% | 21% | 31% | – | 27% |
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 15% | 21% | 22% | – | 42% |
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 4] | December 12–14, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 18% | 22% | – | 44% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] | December 8–12, 2023 | 573 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 18% | 33% | 12% | 1% [lower-alpha 6] | 35% |
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates [upper-alpha 3] | December 3–5, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 19% | 23% | – | 40% |
co/efficient (R) [upper-alpha 3] | November 18–20, 2023 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.18% | 13% | 14% | 15% | – | 58% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 468 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 15% | 18% | 10% | 32% [lower-alpha 7] | 25% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 294 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 20% | 30% | 7% | 0% [lower-alpha 8] | 43% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 269 (LV) [lower-alpha 9] | ± 8.2% | 13% | 30% | 7% | 2% | 49% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 18% | 32% | 7% | 1% | 43% |
Suffolk/USA Today | July 9–12, 2023 | 190 (RV) | – | 14% | 19% | 9% | – | 57% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 405 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 14% | 17% | 7% | 4% | 58% |
Causeway Solutions (R) [upper-alpha 5] | May 19–27, 2023 | 526 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 11% | 24% | 6% | 17% | 42% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Bernie Moreno | 557,626 | 50.48% | |
Republican | Matt Dolan | 363,013 | 32.86% | |
Republican | Frank LaRose | 184,111 | 16.67% | |
Total votes | 1,104,750 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [85] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [86] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [87] | Tossup | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily [88] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [89] | Tossup | December 21, 2023 |
Endorsements in bold were made after the primary election.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Bernie Moreno (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Primary elections held | |||||||
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 36% | – | 17% |
East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 41% | 3% | 12% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 43% | 37% | – | 20% |
Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 34% | 6% | 21% |
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 5% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 32% | – | 26% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 26% | 1% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 35% | 33% | – | 32% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 28% | 0% | 27% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 41% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 2% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Matt Dolan (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 41% | 43% | 4% | 12% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 39% | – | 18% |
Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 34% | 7% | 22% |
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 38% | 37% | 5% | 20% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | – | 22% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 30% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 38% | – | 26% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 33% | 0% | 22% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | – | 11% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 44% | 4% | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Frank LaRose (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 37% | – | 15% |
East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 12% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] | March 6–11, 2024 | 533 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 36% | – | 19% |
Emerson College | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 33% | 7% | 21% |
Emerson College | January 23–25, 2024 | 1844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 39% | 37% | 6% | 18% |
Emerson/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 36% | – | 24% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 31% | 0% | 25% |
Emerson College | October 1–3, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 38% | 39% | – | 23% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 45% | 32% | 0% | 23% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | – | 10% |
East Carolina University | June 21–24, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 4% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Joel Mutchler (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | - | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Sherrod Brown (D) | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions (R) [upper-alpha 5] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Sherrod Brown (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | Bernie Moreno | ||||
Total votes |
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Mark Kvamme, a Columbus venture capitalist and former JobsOhio CEO, has sometimes been mentioned as a potential Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024. But 'that's not going to happen,' Kvamme told Capitol Letter on Monday. Kvamme said he's instead backing Cleveland car dealer/2022 U.S. Senate candidate Bernie Moreno
'Josh is not running for Senate in 2024 and has no plans to return to politics,' Scott Guthrie, Mandel's longtime political aide, wrote in a text message responding on his behalf.
He decided against running in the 2022 Senate race won by Vance, and he's not gearing up to run for Senate next year.
'I don't intend on endorsing in the Senate race'...Husted said.
The party issued no other primary election endorsements on Friday, including in the heated Republican Party for U.S. Senate
The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group...plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race.