2015 Belarusian presidential election

Last updated
2015 Belarusian presidential election
Flag of Belarus.svg
←  2010 11 October 2015 2020  →
Turnout87.22%
  Alexander Lukashenko crop.jpeg Tacciana Karatkievic.jpeg
Nominee Alexander Lukashenko Tatsiana Karatkevich
Party Independent BSDP(A)
Alliance Belaya Rus People's Referendum
Popular vote5,102,478271,426
Percentage84.14%4.48%
Lukasenko's vote.jpg
President before election

Alexander Lukashenko
Independent

Elected President

Alexander Lukashenko
Independent

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on 11 October 2015. [1] Long-term president Alexander Lukashenko ran for his fifth term in office, having won every presidential election since independence in 1991. He was re-elected with 84% of the vote, according to official figures. The 'against all' option received more votes than any opposition candidate.

Contents

As with previous elections in Belarus, [2] the 2015 election was not democratic. [2] [3] In a report following the election, Miklós Haraszti, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Belarus, determined that the results were not free and fair and that "the election process was orchestrated, and the result was pre-ordained", given extensive limits on civil and political rights in Belarus and a high level of election-day fraud. [4]

Background

Prior to the vote, six incarcerated opposition figures were pardoned by Lukashenko. The move was welcomed by the OSCE electoral observer mission with the head of the delegation, Kent Härstedt, saying: "The recent release of political prisoners and a welcoming approach to observers were positive developments. However, the hope that this gave us for broader electoral progress was largely unfulfilled." [5] The International Federation for Human Rights reported that it is likely that released political prisoners in Belarus still have many rights curtailed, such as inability to work for the government or run for public office, police visitations, and restriction of travel. [6] Fewer protests occurred during this presidential election than during others, mostly due to unease over the Maidan protests in Ukraine two years prior. The government of Belarus exploited this unease by advocating stability over change, and even opposition leaders opposed protests. [7]

Candidates

A total of eight candidates attempted to register to run in the elections by collecting the required 100,000 signatures; incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko running as an independent, Belarusian Left Party "A Just World" chairman Sergey Kalyakin, Liberal Democratic Party chairman Sergei Gaidukevich, People's referendum member Tatsiana Karatkevich, United Civic Party chairman Anatoly Lebedko, economist Viktor Tereshchenko (who ran in the 2010 elections), unemployed teacher Zhanna Romanovskaya and Belarusian Patriotic Party chairman Nikolai Ulakhovich.

Although five candidates (Lukashenko, Ulakhovich, Gaidukevich, Tereshchenko and Karatkevich) obtained over 100,000 signatures, [8] the vast majority of Tereshchenko's signatures were declared invalid, [9] resulting in only four candidates (marked in bold) being able to contest the elections. [10] Of the four candidates, only one genuine opposition candidate was permitted to run; the others were considered pro-government candidates. [11]

CandidatePolitical partyInitiative groupSubmittedValid
MembersLeader
Alexander Lukashenko Independent10,577Mikhail Orda1,761,1451,753,380
Nikolai Ulakhovich Belarusian Patriotic Party 1,426Mikhail Vobrazaw159,805149,819
Sergei Gaidukevich Liberal Democratic Party 2,481Anatoly Khishchanka140,735139,877
Tatsiana Karatkevich People's Referendum1,993Andrei Dmitriev107,299105,278
Viktor Tereshchenko Independent946Oleg Nestsyarkov130,4046,699
Sergey Kalyakin Belarusian Left Party "A Just World" 1,510Valery Ukhnaliou480
Anatoly Lebedko United Civic Party 977Viktor Kornienko–0
Zhanna Romanovskaya Independent110Eugene Naporko7800
Sources: Nasha Niva, CEC, Belta

Party system

Unlike in other nations, Belarusian political parties do not hold very significant influence in parliament or in elections. For instance, Lukashenko himself runs as an independent instead of representing a political party. Opposition parties are allowed to exist, but only in a nominal sense as they hold virtually no power in government. [12] Tatsiana Karatkevich represented the "People's Referendum" in the 2015 election, which is an initiative created by a coalition of various opposition leaders instead of a political party. [13]

Campaign

The government allowed an unauthorized opposition rally in the capital, Minsk, to go ahead on the eve of the election without police intervention but Lukashenko warned that post-election protests would not be tolerated. On the same day, the winner of the 2015 Nobel Prize in Literature (announced just two days prior), Svetlana Alexievich, warned Europe to beware of Lukashenko's government as an alleged "soft dictatorship." [14]

Amid a declining economy (including devaluation of the rubel and a reduction in exports to Russia), Lukashenko changed his election slogan from an economic one ("For a prosperous and strong Belarus" was used in the 2010 campaign) to an independent-focused one ("For the Future of Independent Belarus"). [11]

Opinion polls

DateAgencyLukashenkoKaratkevichStatkevichNyaklyaeuLebedkoGaydukevichKalyakinUlakhovich
31 March 2015 NISEPI 34.2% –4.5%7.6%2.9%1.1%1.6%–
1 July 2015 NISEPI 38.6%1.1%5%4.7%4.2%3.9%3.1%-
30 September 2015 NISEPI Archived 2015-09-30 at the Wayback Machine 47%17.9%---11.4%-3.6%
Belarusian presidential election banner Belarusian presidential election banner 2015.jpg
Belarusian presidential election banner

Conduct

As with previous elections in Belarus, [2] the 2015 election took place in an authoritarian environment. [2] [3] Like previous elections in post-Soviet Belarus, the 2015 election was marked by an increase in the degree of election fraud and unfairness that inflated Lukashenko's margin of victory, although Lukashenko might have been able to obtain a majority even without vote-rigging. [15]

Miklós Haraszti, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on human rights in Belarus, said that while the elections took place without violence (unlike the 2010 elections) the election did not satisfy the right of Belarusians to free and fair election: "The election process was orchestrated, and the result was pre-ordained. It could not be otherwise, given the 20 years of continuous suppression of the rights to freedom of expression, assembly, and association, which are the preconditions for any credible competition." [4] Haraszti also noted a high level of election-day fraud (including "undocumented handling of voter lists and ballots, voting on behalf of others, carrousel voting, ballot stuffing, voting without proper documents, and mobile voting abuses") and stated that the voter turnout and vote totals for Lukashenko were implausibly high and not credible. [4]

The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) long-term observation mission was led by Jacques Faure and included more than 40 observers; the short-term observation mission had over 400 people. [16] The OSCE's Kent Härstedt suggested the vote may have been undermined by "significant problems," especially during the counting of the votes: "It is clear that Belarus still has a long way to go towards fulfilling its democratic commitments." [14]

Multiple days of "coerced participation of prison inmates, army conscripts, and public servants" were documented, [4] and the Viasna human rights group documented cases of forced early voting among students of state universities and workers of state organizations. [17] [18] [19] The "Human Rights Defenders for Free Elections" group also registered the overestimation of turnout (half of independent observers noted that the actual number of early voters didn't match with the official turnout) and unreasonable interference in observers' work. [17]

On election day, independent observers noted several violations during the elections. In Barysaw, chairman of the District Election Commission didn't announce the results before calling somewhere (presumably the higher-level electoral commission). After his call, the observer states, the number of votes for the opposition candidate Karatkevich in the final protocol decreased from 219 to 77. [20] In Salihorsk polling station 24, the number of voters was announced to be 1,190, while the independent observer counted only 808 people. [21] A similar incident happened in Babruysk, where the official turnout on three polling stations differed from the observers' calculations by several hundred voters in each station. The observer was not allowed to watch the counting process. [22]

In Slonim, an independent observer noticed two packs of filled ballots thrown into the early voting ballot box. [23]

Results

According to the Central Election Commission, more than 36% of voters used the early voting process, higher than in previous years. [24] Overall turnout was 87.22% – highest in Vitebsk Region at 91.08% and lowest in Minsk at 74.38%. [25] [26] Alexander Lukashenko won the election with 83.47% of the vote. [25] [27]

CandidatePartyVotes%
Alexander Lukashenko Independent5,102,47884.14
Tatsiana Karatkevich People's Referendum271,4264.48
Sergei Gaidukevich Liberal Democratic Party 201,9453.33
Nikolai Ulakhovich Belarusian Patriotic Party 102,1311.68
Against all386,2256.37
Total6,064,205100.00
Valid votes6,064,20599.20
Invalid/blank votes48,8080.80
Total votes6,113,013100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,008,68287.22
Source: Belta

Reactions

Domestic

Head of the Central Election Commission, Lidia Yermoshina stated that "the election campaign was civilized, cultured and calm." [14]

Opposition leaders Uladzimir Nyaklyayew, Anatoly Lebedko and Mikola Statkevich said they would not recognize the results. [14]

International

Flag of Germany.svg Germany – Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said from Luxembourg that the lack of repression against the opposition could pave the path towards easing sanctions against the country for four months. "There have been changes in Belarus, compared to the two past elections. If Belarus stays on this path, there is a willingness, and there is unanimity on this, to change the relationships with Belarus." However, he added that though there were few surprises, Belarus was changing, especially in regards to the "liberation of political prisoners" before the vote. [14]

Flag of France.svg France – Minister for European Affairs Harlem Désir said his country sought to encourage an opening, while also warning that backsliding on human rights could result in the re-imposition of sanctions. [5]

Analysis

An analyst at the BelaPAN Alexander Klaskovsky noticed that there were no mass protests and arrests of the opposition place this time.[ citation needed ] A comment by Agence France Presse suggested the changes in this election were due to Lukashenko's shrewdness in playing Western Europe against Russia and an attempt to decouple from Russia due to international sanctions it faced. [14]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Alexander Lukashenko</span> President of Belarus since 1994

Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko is a Belarusian politician who has been the president of Belarus since the office's establishment in 1994. This makes him the longest-serving European president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">BPF Party</span> Belarusian political party

The BPF Party is a banned political party in Belarus. It was de facto established after the split of the social movement Belarusian Popular Front in 1999. The Belarusian Popular Front was founded during the Perestroika era by members of the Belarusian intelligentsia, including Vasil Bykaŭ. Its first and most charismatic leader was Zianon Pazniak.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Elections in Belarus</span> Political elections for public offices in Belarus

Belarus elects on national level a head of state—the president—and a legislature. The president is elected for a five-year term by the people. The National Assembly has two chambers. The House of Representatives has 110 members elected in single-seat constituencies elected for a four-year term. The Council of the Republic has 64 members, 56 members indirectly elected and eight members appointed by the president.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Constitution of Belarus</span> Supreme law of Belarus

The Constitution of the Republic of Belarus is the ultimate law of Belarus. The Constitution is composed of a preamble and nine sections divided into 146 articles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">President of Belarus</span> Head of state and head of government of Belarus

The president of the Republic of Belarus is the head of state and head of government of Belarus. The office was created in 1994 with the passing of the Constitution of Belarus by the Supreme Council. This replaced the office of Chairman of the Supreme Council as the head of state. The tasks of the president include executing foreign and domestic policy, defending the rights and general welfare of citizens and residents, and upholding the Constitution. The president is mandated by the Constitution to serve as a leader in the social affairs of the country and to act as its main representative abroad. The duties, responsibilities and other transitional clauses dealing with the presidency are listed in Chapter Three, Articles 79 through 89, of the Constitution.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2006 Belarusian presidential election</span>

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on 19 March 2006. The result was a victory for incumbent, President Alexander Lukashenko, who received 84.4% of the vote. However, Western observers deemed the elections rigged. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) declared that the election "failed to meet OSCE commitments for democratic elections". In contrast, election observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) described the vote as open and transparent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1996 Belarusian referendum</span> 1996 referendum by the Belarusian government on political, constitutional, and financial changes

A seven-question referendum was held in Belarus on 24 November 1996. Four questions were put forward by President Alexander Lukashenko on changing the date of the country's independence day, amending the constitution, changing laws on the sale of land and the abolition of the death penalty. The Supreme Council put forward three questions on constitutional amendments by the Communist and Agrarian factions, local elections and the national finances.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Belarus–European Union relations</span> Bilateral relations

Mutual relations between the Republic of Belarus and the European Union (EU) were initially established after the European Economic Community recognised Belarusian independence in 1991.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 Belarusian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Belarus on 28 September 2008. All 110 seats in the House of Representatives were at stake.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Human rights in Belarus</span> Overview of human rights in Belarus

The government of Belarus is criticized for its human rights violations and persecution of non-governmental organisations, independent journalists, national minorities, and opposition politicians. In a testimony to the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, former United States Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice labeled Belarus as one of the world's six "outposts of tyranny". In response, the Belarusian government called the assessment "quite far from reality". During 2020 Belarusian presidential election and protests, the number of political prisoners recognized by Viasna Human Rights Centre rose dramatically to 1062 as of 16 February 2022. Several people died after the use of unlawful and abusive force by law enforcement officials during 2020 protests. According to Amnesty International, the authorities didn't investigate violations during protests but instead harassed those who challenged their version of events. In July 2021, the authorities launched a campaign against the remaining non-governmental organizations, liquidating at least 270 of them by October, including all previously registered human rights organizations in the country.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 Belarusian presidential election</span> Presidential election in Belarus

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on 19 December 2010. The elections had originally been planned for the beginning of 2011. However, the final date was set during an extraordinary session of the National Assembly on 14 September 2010.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Andrei Sannikov</span> Belarusian pro-democracy activist

Andrei Olegovich Sannikov is a Belarusian politician and activist. In the early 1990s, he headed the Belarusian delegation on Nuclear and Conventional Weapons Armament Negotiations, also serving as a Belarusian diplomat to Switzerland. From 1995 to 1996, he served as Deputy Foreign Minister of Belarus, resigning as a form of political protest. He co-founded the civil action Charter 97, and was awarded the Bruno Kreisky Prize in 2005.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Belarusian opposition</span> Democratic political movement in the Republic of Belarus

The Belarusian opposition consists of groups and individuals in Belarus seeking to challenge, from 1988 to 1991, the authorities of Soviet Belarus, and since 1995, the leader of the country Alexander Lukashenko, whom supporters of the movement often consider to be a dictator. Supporters of the movement tend to call for a parliamentary democracy based on a Western model, with freedom of speech and political and religious pluralism.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ales Bialiatski</span> Belarusian pro-democracy activist (born 1962)

Ales Viktaravich Bialiatski is a Belarusian pro-democracy activist and prisoner of conscience known for his work with the Viasna Human Rights Centre. An activist for Belarusian independence and democracy since the early 1980s, Bialiatski is a founding member of Viasna and the Belarusian Popular Front, serving as leader of the latter from 1996 to 1999. He is also a member of the Coordination Council of the Belarusian opposition. He has been called "a pillar of the human rights movement in Eastern Europe" by The New York Times, and recognised as a prominent pro-democracy activist in Belarus.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2019 Belarusian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Belarus on 17 November 2019.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Belarusian presidential election</span>

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on Sunday, 9 August 2020. Early voting began on 4 August and ran until 8 August.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sergei Tikhanovsky</span> Belarusian YouTuber and activist (born 1978)

Sergei Leonidovich Tikhanovsky, also transliterated as Syarhey Leanidavich Tsikhanouski, is a Belarusian YouTuber, video blogger, dissident and pro-democracy activist. He is considered by Amnesty International to be a prisoner of conscience. He is known primarily for his activism against the government of Belarus's long-serving president, Alexander Lukashenko. In May 2020, he announced his intention of running for the 2020 presidential election, but he was arrested two days after the announcement, and his wife Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya then ran in place of him as the main rival to Lukashenko in the contested election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Belarusian constitutional referendum</span> Constitutional referendum in Belarus

A constitutional referendum was held in Belarus on 27 February 2022. The referendum was ordered by President Alexander Lukashenko in January 2022. According to political analysts, changes to the Belarusian constitution were intended to solidify the power of Lukashenko's regime after the mass protests in 2020 and 2021, which challenged his rule and was brutally suppressed by police. More than 35,000 people were arrested, 1,070 of whom are acknowledged political prisoners. The changes to Constitution allow Lukashenko to remain in office until 2035 and empower the All-Belarusian People's Assembly, an extra-parliamentary body dominated by government supporters. The changes also renounced Belarus's nuclear-free zone status, allowing Belarus to host nuclear weapons for the first time since the fall of the Soviet Union; the lead-up to the referendum occurred as Russia amassed its troops in both Russia and Belarus in the prelude to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the election itself was held several days after Russia began its military offensive into Ukraine.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1999 Belarusian presidential election</span> Non-binding presidential election held by the Belarusian opposition

The 1999 Belarusian presidential election was a political protest action by members of Belarusian opposition who did not recognise the 1996 constitutional reform which extended Alexander Lukashenko's presidential term.

Parliamentary elections were held in Belarus on 25 February 2024. The country elected 110 deputies to the lower house of parliament and about 12,000 representatives of local councils.

References

  1. ↑ Parliament approves 11 October 2015 as Belarus president election date Archived July 4, 2015, at the Wayback Machine Belta, 30 June 2015
  2. 1 2 3 4 Sofie Bedford (2017). ""The Election Game": Authoritarian Consolidation Processes in Belarus". Demokratizatsiya: The Journal of Post-Soviet Democratization. 25 (4): 381–305. officially the [EU] sanctions were reduced as a 'reward' for the 2015 presidential elections being peaceful and non-violent, despite the fact that these elections were just as non-democratic as any previous election in Belarus
  3. 1 2 Jones, Mark P. (2018). "Presidential and Legislative Elections". The Oxford Handbook of Electoral Systems. doi:10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190258658.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780190258658-e-23 . Retrieved 2020-05-21. unanimous agreement among serious scholars that... Lukashenko's 2015 election occurred within an authoritarian context.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Belarus election 'neither free nor fair,' says UN human rights expert, United Nations (October 13, 2015).
  5. 1 2 European Union on course to lift Belarus sanctions despite vote concerns DNA India, 12 October 2015
  6. ↑ "The release of six political prisoners should not overshadow ongoing human rights violations". Worldwide Movement for Human Rights (in French). Retrieved 2016-05-02.
  7. ↑ "What Makes the 2015 Belarus Presidential Campaign So Different?". Belarus Digest: News and analytics on Belarusian politics, economy, human rights and more. Archived from the original on 2016-06-02. Retrieved 2016-05-03.
  8. ↑ Number of voter signatures in the signature lists Archived 2016-10-11 at the Wayback Machine Central Election Commission
  9. ↑ Preliminary data about true signatures to nominate candidates for Belarus presidency released Belta, 1 September 2015
  10. ↑ Republic of Belarus IFES
  11. 1 2 Yaraslau Kryvoi, The west should not hold its breath in expecting real change to emerge from the 2015 presidential election in Belarus, LSE European Politics and Policy (EUROPP) Blog (August 25, 2015).
  12. ↑ "Political Parties in Belarus - Do They Really Matter?". Belarus Digest: News and analytics on Belarusian politics, economy, human rights and more. Archived from the original on 2017-06-28. Retrieved 2016-05-03.
  13. ↑ "A Belarus People's Referendum". European Endowment for Democracy . Retrieved 2016-05-03.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko Looks to Eased Sanctions But OSCE Queries Poll NDTV, 12 October 2015
  15. ↑ Matthew Frear, Belarus Under Lukashenka: Adaptive Authoritarianism (Routledge, 2019), p. 64.
  16. ↑ "Election 2015. Harstedt: OSCE, Council of Europe's invitation to observe Belarus' president election is a good sign". Archived from the original on 28 September 2015. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  17. 1 2 The Human Rights Center “Viasna”. "Final report on early voting at the elections of President of the Republic of Belarus in 2015". spring96.org. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  18. ↑ Минск: На предприятиях и в общежитиях принуждают голосовать досрочно
  19. ↑ В государственных вузах наблюдается давление на студентов в связи с выборами
  20. ↑ The Human Rights Center “Viasna”. "Barysaŭ: chairman consults higher commission before announcing results of voting". spring96.org. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  21. ↑ The Human Rights Center “Viasna”. "Salihorsk PEC No. 24 overestimates turnout by four hundred people". spring96.org. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  22. ↑ The Human Rights Center “Viasna”. "Babrujsk: massive overestimation of turnout on election day". spring96.org. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  23. ↑ The Human Rights Center “Viasna”. "Observer registers stuffing of ballots at polling station No. 11 in Slonim". spring96.org. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  24. ↑ "Рекорд пал. Досрочно проголосовали 36,05% избирателей". TUT.BY. Archived from the original on 12 October 2015. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  25. 1 2 "Сведения о результатах голосования 11 октября 2015 года" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2015-10-17. Retrieved 2015-10-16.
  26. ↑ "Выборы Президента Республики Беларусь 2015". Archived from the original on 11 October 2015. Retrieved 12 October 2015.
  27. ↑ Belta: Лукашенко победил на выборах Президента Беларуси
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.