2020 Belarusian presidential election

Last updated

2020 Belarusian presidential election
Flag of Belarus.svg
  2015 9 August 2020 2025  
Turnout84.28%
  Alexander Lukashenko 2020.jpg Svjatlana Cichanouska, Praha, 7.6.2021.jpg
Nominee Alexander Lukashenko Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya
Party Independent Independent
Popular vote4,661,075588,619
Percentage81.04%10.23%

Proportion of votes for Alexander Lukashenko in the 2020 presidential election in Belarus.svg
Official results by region

President before election

Alexander Lukashenko
Independent

Elected President

Alexander Lukashenko
Independent

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on Sunday, 9 August 2020. Early voting began on 4 August and ran until 8 August. [1]

Contents

Incumbent Alexander Lukashenko was announced by the Central Election Commission (CEC) to have won a sixth term in office, crediting him with just over 80% of the vote. [2] Lukashenko has won every presidential election since 1994, [3] with all but the first being labelled by international monitors as neither free nor fair. [4]

Opposition candidate Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya claimed to have won a decisive first-round victory with at least 60% of the vote, and called on Lukashenko to start negotiations. Her campaign subsequently formed the Coordination Council to facilitate a transfer of power and stated that it was ready to organize "long-term protests" against the official results. [5] [6] All seven members of the Coordination Council Presidium were subsequently arrested or went into exile.

All opposition candidates have filed appeals to the Central Election Commission calling for the results to be invalidated. [7] The election was marred by claims of widespread electoral fraud. [8] [9] [10] Numerous countries refused to accept the result of the election, as did the European Union, which imposed sanctions on Belarusian officials deemed to be responsible for "violence, repression and election fraud". [11] The results of the election led to widespread protests. [12]

Background

On 8 May 2020, the National Assembly set 9 August as the date for the presidential election. [13]

Incumbent president Alexander Lukashenko had been leading the country since the first presidential elections held in 1994. Over the next two years, he rapidly consolidated his power. In 1995, he won a referendum that gave him the power to dissolve the legislature if he felt it contravened the Constitution. In 1996, he won another referendum that dramatically increased his power, and also extended his original five-year term to 2001. [14] [15] Since then, his regime has been reckoned as an authoritarian dictatorship by Western observers. [16] Opposition activists are often pressured or detained by the government, and Lukashenko or those loyal to him control (as of 2020) all of the seats in both houses of the National Assembly, all judicial appointments, the media, and the CEC (which has the power to approve or deny candidates for political offices). [17]

Electoral system

The president of Belarus is elected using the two-round system. If no candidate obtains over 50% of the vote, a second round is held with the top two candidates. The winner of the second round is elected. A turnout quorum of 50% is applied. [18]

Despite the two-round system being in place, a second round has not been officially required since 1994. In the previous four elections, Lukashenko claimed margins of 77% or more in the first round. No election since 1994 has met international standards of transparency and fairness. [4]

Candidates

Registered candidates

To register as a candidate, nominees were required to meet certain criteria: [19]

The following list has information about registered candidates by the CEC for the presidential election on 21 July 2020. [21] [22]

Registered candidates for the 2020 Belarusian presidential election
CandidateOccupationSubject of nominationApplication dateInitiative group registration dateInitiative group size [23]
Alexander Lukashenko [3] Incumbent president of Belarus Self-nomination17 November 2019 [24] 15 May 202011,480
Siarhei Cherachen Chairman of the Belarusian Social Democratic Assembly Belarusian Social Democratic Assembly 11 January 2020 [25] 20 May 20201,127
Hanna Kanapatskaya Member of Parliament (2016–2019)Self-nomination12 May 2020 [26] 20 May 20201,314
Andrey Dmitriyeu Co-chairman of the political movement "Tell the Truth" Tell the Truth 8 May 2020 [27] 20 May 20202,399
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Human rights activist and politicianSelf-nomination15 May 2020 [28] 20 May 2020247

Denied candidates

Withdrawn candidates

Declined candidates

In January 2020, five opposition forces, the Movement "For Freedom", Belarusian Christian Democracy, Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Assembly), BPF Party and United Civic Party of Belarus reached a definite agreement to hold primaries to field a single candidate from the Belarusian opposition. Yury Hubarevich (For Freedom), Paval Sieviaryniec, Volha Kavalkova (both BCD), Aliaksei Yanukevich (BPF) and Mikalai Kazlou (UCPB) were listed as potential candidates. [41] [42]

The Belarusian Green Party announced that it would not participate in the primaries and the election. [43]

The Belarusian Left Party "A Just World" called for a boycott of the election, describing the election a "political farce". [44]

Collection of signatures

Candidates who received more than 100,000 signatures in support of their candidacy
CandidateSignatures collected [45] [46] [47] [48] [49] Signatures
submitted
Signatures
accepted [50]
28 May4 June8 June19 June
Viktar Babaryka 51,25982,519167,001435,119367,179 [51] 165,744
Siarhei Cherachen 20,24752,99174,382153,764149,750143,109
Andrei Dmitriyeu 14,11836,47559,975112,950110,754106,841
Anna Kanapatskaya 12,48336,43272,864159,728151,631 [52] 146,588
Natallia Kisel 37,23562,47073,941108,705N/A
Alexander Lukashenko 199,752499,256998,7601,997,5201,958,8001,939,572
Valery Tsepkalo 19,80754,828118,456212,412158,682 [53] 75,249
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 1,56759,774145,322109,479 [54] 104,757

Most government organizations forced their employees to sign for Alexander Lukashenko under threats that their work contracts would not be renewed. [55] [56] [57]

Timeline

May

June

July

August

Campaign

Street banner in Minsk with the date of the election. "9 zhniunia 2020 VYBARY PREZIDENTA RESPUBLIKI BELARUS'" (Belarusian: 9 zniwnia 2020 VYBARY PRESIDENTA RESPUBLIKI BIELARUS
lit. '9 August 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN BELARUS') Elections 2020 banner in Belarus.jpg
Street banner in Minsk with the date of the election. "9 жніўня 2020 ВЫБАРЫ ПРЭЗІДЭНТА РЭСПУБЛІКІ БЕЛАРУСЬ" (Belarusian: 9 žniwnia 2020 VYBARY PRESIDENTA RESPUBLIKI BIEŁARUŚlit.'9 August 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN BELARUS')

Siarhei Tsikhanouski and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya

Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk on 30 July 2020 Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk (30 July 2020) - 15.jpg
Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk on 30 July 2020
Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk on 30 July 2020. Tsikhanouskaya is on the left Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk (30 July 2020) - 51.jpg
Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk on 30 July 2020. Tsikhanouskaya is on the left
Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk on 30 July 2020. Security measures (taken after the arrest of 33 alleged Russian mercenaries) Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk (30 July 2020) - 11.jpg
Rally in support of Tsikhanouskaya in Minsk on 30 July 2020. Security measures (taken after the arrest of 33 alleged Russian mercenaries)

On 6 May, Belarusian blogger and entrepreneur Syarhei Tsikhanouski has announced on his YouTube channel "Country for Life" that he intended to become a candidate in the presidential election. [68] [69]

The police officers refused to present identification (confirming that they were legitimate policemen) and threatened to break the windows of the car that Tsikhanouski was in. [70] Prior to that, a crowd of Tsikhanouski's supporters in Mahilyow released a member of Tsikhanouski's team from the police. [71] A day later, allies of Tsikhanouski were arrested, including a blogger from Slutsk, Uladzimier Niaronski. [72] The Tsikhanouski's team, including Niaronski, were chased by road police and two minivans with members of the police special forces AMAP. [73]

The blogger's arrest was due to his trips around Belarus that covered consequences of Lukashenko’s 26-year tenure as a president. The Tsikhanouski trips were popular and gathered hundreds of people who spoke out to him about violations of human rights and economic problems. During these trips, Tsikhanouski and his team were constantly chased by cars with people who were recording him and his activities; presumably they were employees of the Belarusian special services. [74]

After the Tikhanovski was arrested, his supporters held a series of protests across the Belarus. According to Radio Liberty, 20 to 30 people were detained in Homiel, which is Tsikhanouski's hometown. [72] Viasna Human Rights Centre reported that at least 19 of his supporters were brutally detained in Minsk. [72]

After his arrest, Tsikhanouski was transported to Homiel, where he was placed in a temporary detention center. The formal reason for his detention was his participation in the rally against the integration of Belarus with Russia on 19 December 2019 in Minsk. After his detention, Tsikhanouski has announced on his YouTube channel his intention to run for president of Belarus. The video had recorded 250,000 views in 20 hours after the publication. The aforementioned YouTube channel had 276,000 subscribers as of 10 August. [75] However, the Central Election Commission of Belarus refused to register the initiative group to nominate him. [76] [77]

His spouse, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, decided to apply for election as a candidate, her initiative group was successfully registered by the Central Election Commission of Belarus. [78] Tsikhanouski became the head of the initiative group to collect signatures for Tikhanovskaya's participation in the election.[ citation needed ]

On 20 May, Tsikhanouski was released from the temporary detention center. [79] [80] He explained that the pressure of activist supporters helped to achieve it. In an interview with Tsikhanouski after his release, Deutsche Welle drew parallels between the Belarusian blogger and Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny and the Ukrainian actor Volodymyr Zelensky, who became the president of Ukraine. [81] RTVI also drew a parallel between Tsikhanouski and Navalny. [82]

Tsikhanouski then began travelling round the country to hold pickets in order to collect signatures for Tsikhanouskaya. Tsikhanouski's pickets were very popular and attracted thousands of people.[ citation needed ] The queue to the picket in Minsk near Kamarouski market was half a mile long.[ citation needed ] Several thousand people also attended the picket of Tsikhanouski in Homiel.[ citation needed ] Tsikhanouski announced that he was collecting signatures for fair election in Belarus.

Tsikhanouski uses the slogan "Stop the cockroach!" in his campaign, which is chanted by his supporters. The symbol of the campaign is a slipper. The slogan "Stop the cockroach!" refers to the fairy tale "Cockroach" by Soviet poet Kornei Chukovsky about how a "moustached cockroach" intimidated all the animals and became their ruler. Apparently, this slogan is a reference to Alexander Lukashenko. Slippers are supposedly a traditional means of pest control. [83] Euronews journalists called the events in Belarus the "Slipper Revolution", demonstrating the quote of the Belarusian activist Franak Viačorka with this phrase. [84]

On 29 May, Tsikhanouski visited Hrodna to collect signatures for his wife. On the same day, the head of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko alluded to Tsikhanouski at a meeting with workers of Minsk Tractor Works: "They come cool, all in jeeps — 10-12 cars... we know whose cars he drives, who finances it. We know where he comes from, what his citizenship is and stuff... We all know that. I'm already looking, they're giving me information, our people have already seen it." [85] Tsikhanouski commented on Lukashenko's statement to the Nasha Niva newspaper: "My last name isn't there, but a hint of me: "We know his citizenship." They have information, analytical work! I have one citizenship, I never had any other. In terms of money — I've had business since 2005, I have money." [86]

A few hours after Lukashenko's statement, when Tsikhanouski was talking with the residents of Hrodna, nearby there was a provocation, where a policeman fell by himself and was lying on the ground whistling. One minute and thirteen seconds later, Tsikhanouski was detained by AMAP. [87] Eight vans arrived to detain him. [88] The soldiers of the special unit escorted Tsikhanouski into a police GAZelle van without showing their IDs. During the arrest, the van's door was broken. The blogger's supporters tried to stop the vans from leaving the place of detention. Unidentified people in tracksuits then cleared the way for the police transport to leave in a struggle with Tsikhanouski's supporters. [88] The supporters then went to the police station in Hrodna to demand the blogger's release. [89] [90]

Shortly after Tsikhanouski's arrest, Belarusian state-owned TV channel Belarus 1 showed a story where the events in Hrodna were covered as follows: "From the very first minutes, this collection of signatures turned into a rally, and according to the law, it is prohibited to hold campaign meetings at this stage of the election campaign. As a result, this manner of communication turned into a scuffle. The police, trying to restore order, found themselves in the epicenter of the scuffle, which was arranged on the square. One of the police officers was attacked." [91] [92] The leader of the United Civil Party, retired lieutenant colonel of the Belarusian police, Mikalai Kazlou, noted that during his speech at Minsk Tractor Plant, Alexander Lukashenko "gave the command to screw, twist, throw in jail, and the minister immediately seized this opportunity and created a provocation". Kazlou also noted that all the policemen involved in this provocation would be exposed and brought to justice. [93]

According to the Vesna Human Rights Centre, at least 13 people were detained, including two members of Tsikhanouskaya's initiative group and three assistants of Tsikhanouski. The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Belarus announced that investigators had opened a criminal case for violence against police officers. [94]

Tsikhanouskaya made an official statement regarding the detention of her husband and the head of the headquarters of her initiative group in Hrodna: "I officially declare: Today, 29 May, during a picket in Hrodna in support of my candidacy for the presidency there was a "dirty" provocation against Syarhei Leanidovich Tsikhanouski, head of the headquarters of my initiative group. He was detained. I declare responsibly that the picket was legal and peaceful. In connection with this, I demand the immediate release of the head of my initiative group, otherwise, I will regard it as a violation of my constitutional rights and pressure on me as a candidate for the presidency of Belarus". She promised to submit relevant applications to the CEC and the Interior Ministry. [95]

The first two mass rallies after registration by the Tsikhanouskaya campaign were held on 19 July in Banhalore Square in Minsk and the city of Dzyarzhynsk with an audience of around 7,500. She was joined on stage by Babaryka's campaign manager Maryja Kalesnikava and Tsepkalo's wife Veranika as they had announced earlier that they would merge their campaigns. [96] [97]

Local governments cancelled several campaign events that Tsikhanouskaya had planned to hold in the run-up to the elections. [1]

"Female Solidarity"

Before the 2020 presidential election, Alexander Lukashenko insisted that Belarus is not ready for a woman to be president. On 17 July 2020, the three women representing the main opposition candidates (Tsikhanouskaya, Tsepkalo's wife Veronica and Babaryka's campaign manager Maryja Kalesnikava) merged their campaigns, pitting "Female Solidarity" to fight Lukashenko. [98]

Pressure by authorities

Viktar Babaryka was detained on 18 June during the reported arrest of several hundred opposition supporters. Charges of embezzlement and fraud have been brought against Babaryka, who is currently being held in a State Security Committee detention centre in Minsk. [99] [100] [101]

Valery Tsepkalo, who was not allowed to register as a candidate, and has "gone to Moscow with his children, fearing for his safety". During an interview, Tsepkalo mentioned that his friends in law enforcement agencies warned "an order had gone out for my arrest". Tsepkalo said he planned to give press conferences in Russia, Ukraine, Western Europe and the United States to expose "the true nature of the Belarusian regime." His wife, Veronika Tsepkalo, is remaining in Belarus to help the campaign of Lukashenko's main competitor in the election, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. [102] [103]

In June, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya released a video saying that she had been threatened with arrest, and her children being taken away if she continued to campaign. She had to send her children abroad to live with their grandmother for their safety. [104] The children of opposition candidates have been taken away before and put into state orphanages. [105]

According to Belarusian Electoral Code (articles 45 and 451), [106] [107] local authorities have to determine some outdoor sites for rallies and meetings, where mass events are possible. In Minsk, the authorities allowed six sites to be used for this purpose (none of them in the city centre) [108] while only one site was usually allocated in each of the small towns. During the 2020 election, the authorities and confidants of Lukashenko widely used booking of these sites to prevent independent candidates to meet with people. In Pinsk (Brest region), local authorities provided only one site for meetings with candidates, and this site was booked by a confidant of Lukashenko (Tacciana Lugina, mayor of Pinsk) from 24 July to 8 August. Due to this, Tsikhanouskaya failed to visit Pinsk on 2 August. [109] [110] In Stolin (Brest region), the only site was booked by Lugina too from 27 July to 8 August every day from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. [111]

On 4 August, Tsikhanouskaya planned to visit Slutsk and Salihorsk (Minsk region). On 3 August, local authorities of Slutsk informed the confidant of Tsikhanouskaya that the meeting couldn't be held due to "urgent repair" of the only provided site, but they didn't provide the alternative site (as requried by law). [112] The meeting in Salihorsk was also cancelled by the authorities at the last moment. The people who gathered in Slutsk and Salihorsk were asked to leave and those who refused were arrested. [113] [114] [115] Meetings with another independent candidate Andrey Dmitriyeu in Liepiel and Polatsk (Viciebsk region) were cancelled at the last moment for similar reasons. [116]

On 6 August, Tsikhanouskaya was forced to cancel a previously announced rally in Minsk due to full booking at all six sites in the city that were made available by the authorities. Instead, she, with Veranika Tsepkalo and Maryja Kalesnikava, visited one of the booked sites and invited people to join them, but the policemen did not allow three of them to come in. During the event, DJs put the song "[We Want] Changes!" by Viktor Tsoi and thus supported Tsikhanouskaya. They were later sentenced to detention for 10 days. [117] [118] [119] [120]

On 8 August, Maryja Maroz (campaign manager of Tsikhanouskaya) and Maryja Kalesnikava (see above) were arrested, but Kalesnikava was freed a few hours later. [121] [122]

Solidarity

Map of demonstrations in solidarity with the Belarusian opposition Aktsii solidarnosti grazhdanam Belarusi v stranakh mira.png
Map of demonstrations in solidarity with the Belarusian opposition

Demonstrations in solidarity with the Belarusian opposition have been held in more than 20 countries and in more than 30 cities around the world. [123]

Opinion polls

According to a poll conducted back in March–April 2020 by the Institute of Sociology of the National Academy of Sciences of Belarus, the level of trust of current Lukashenko in the capital city of Belarus is 24%. At the same time, 11% of the poll participants trust the Central Election Commission. [124]

The state-affiliated analytical center "Ecoom" commissioned by the state TV channel ONT, which was criticized for its biased coverage of the election campaign [ citation needed ] , conducted a sociological survey of electoral moods and preferences of citizens. According to this data, incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko enjoyed support of 72.3% of citizens. At the same time, no more than 10% in total were ready to vote for the remaining candidates. [125] [126]

Opinion polling in Belarus requires a government license. Media outlets are also banned from conducting online polls regarding the election. [127]

State-sponsored polls

Legend
Italics: candidate was denied registration
Bold and green marks the candidate who took first place.
Bold italics and yellow marks the candidate who took second place.
State-sponsored polling results
DatePolling firm Lukashenko Tsikhanouskaya KanapatskayaCherachenDmitriyeu Babaryka Tsepkalo Lead
23–27 July 2020 A C Ecoom 73.37.51.60.20.765.8
10–14 July 2020 A C Ecoom 69.42.21.50.80.36.73.162.6

Exit poll

According to Russian government-owned media outlet RIA Novosti, [128] official exit polls indicated a win for Lukashenko. The below figures are widely disputed by opposition figures, including Tikhanovskaya. [129] [130]

DateSource Lukashenko Tsikhanouskaya KanapatskayaCherachenDmitriyeuLead
9 August 2020 RIA Novosti 79.76.82.30.91.172.9

Conduct

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe reported that it would not be monitoring the 2020 election as it had not been sent a timely invitation. It had not recognised any elections in Belarus as free and fair since 1995. [131] Only Russia and Azerbaijan were participating as international observers during the election. [132] On 4 August 2020, the first day of early voting in the election, the CEC reported a turnout of almost 5%. [133] [134] However, independent observers disputed this figure and claimed that it was inflated. [134]

External images
Searchtool.svg Vote cabin without curtain
Searchtool.svg Vote cabin with a deliberately drawn curtain

In several polling stations, curtains were deliberately removed from the vote cabins, leaving them covered on only three sides. [135]

A few days prior to the election, a number of journalists and bloggers were arrested on weak and spurious charges, or were denied accreditation to cover the elections, [132] bringing the total to over 100 arrests made since January. It was thought that the government wants to reduce external scrutiny of the election. [136]

Honest People, an independent association in Belarus that monitors elections, reported having found 5096 violations from observers. They also questioned the election commission's reported turnout statistics. The group said that around 70 election observers were detained. [137]

Results

The queue of voters at the embassy of Belarus in Moscow, Russia The queue of voters at the embassy of Belarus in Moscow (2020-08-09) 01.jpg
The queue of voters at the embassy of Belarus in Moscow, Russia

Turnout was said to be 4.98% on 4 August, [134] [138] 12.75% on 5 August, [139] 22.47% on 6 August, [140] and 32.24% on 7 August.[ citation needed ] On 9 August, turnout was reported to be 84.05% at 20:00, more than the 50% required to validate the election. [141] [142]

The result of the vote, "as in previous elections, was never in any real doubt" and had a "foregone nature" according to The New York Times , stating that Lukashenko "controls vote counting, [and abused] a vast security apparatus and a noisy state media machine unwavering in its support for him and contempt for his rivals." Tsikhanouskaya, the principal challenger, was stated to have gone into hiding in Minsk after security agents detained at least eight members of her campaign staff on the day of the election. [132]

Map of official results by Tsikhanouskaya's vote share Official results of the Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya in the presidential election 2020 in Belarus.jpg
Map of official results by Tsikhanouskaya's vote share
CandidatePartyVotes%
Alexander Lukashenko Independent4,661,07581.04
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya Independent588,61910.23
Hanna Kanapatskaya Independent97,4891.69
Andrey Dmitriyeu Independent70,6711.23
Siarhei Cherachen Belarusian Social Democratic Assembly 66,6131.16
Against all267,3634.65
Total5,751,830100.00
Valid votes5,751,83098.85
Invalid/blank votes67,1251.15
Total votes5,818,955100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,904,64984.28
Source: Central Election Commission

Protocols of the polling stations

Once the votes have been duly counted, polling stations in Belarus write a "Protocol" (report) which sums up the election tallies. The Protocol is then displayed for passers-by.

People took photos of the protocols, which testified that in many stations in the Minsk capital, and in foreign consulates, the support for Tsikhanouskaya was roughly equal or even several times higher than of Lukashenko. [143] [144]

Belarusian political scientist Valer Karbalevich  [ ru ] stated that the local protocols and final results are completely uncorrelated. [145]

Although the Electoral Code of Belarus requires to hang out the protocols on every voting station (article 55 [146] ), it was reported that some stations didn't make them public. The Central Electoral Commission of Belarus stated that no such info was known and reported that there are no specific requirements to the procedure of announcement of the local protocols. [147] While responding to complaints, the Committee announced that it cannot publish the protocols once again, adding that they were delivered to regional committees only, which disbanded after the announcement of final results. [148]

Although the voting papers should be kept for 6 months, a Brest-based human rights activist obtained a big bale of partially burned voting papers a few days after the election: according to him, they were to be burned in the boiler room. [149] [150]

Internet initiatives

Self-counting

Votes sent to the Voice platform [151]
CandidateVotes submittedwith photo%
Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya 1 003 717536 54695.65%
Alexander Lukashenko 10 1006580.96%
Andrey Dmitriyeu 6 7782 0470.64%
Siarhei Cherachen 3 7241 2010.35%
Hanna Kanapatskaya 2 4916880.23%
Against all candidates18 1374 3571.72%
Planned to not attend to cast vote2 685-0.25%
Planned to spoil ballot1 7124500.16%
TOTAL1 049 334545 947100%

The Voice (Russian : Голос, romanized: Golos, Belarusian : Голас, romanized: Holas) initiative invited Belarusian citizens to submit photographs of both sides of their voting papers, together with their voting bureau locations. The aim was to make all photographs available as a public photographic database, enabling cross-checks against the official results.

On 15 August 2020, Voice claimed to have had 1,248,714 valid voting papers recorded, [152] about 18% of the voting population. As of 28 August 2020, Voice updated its count to 1,049,334 unique confirmed votes recorded, [153] with 545,947 verified ballot photos.

Protocols vs Official data and photographs

On 21 August 2020, a final report by the Voice, partnering with the "Zubr" and "Honest People" platforms [151] [154] analyzed polling station results. For 1310 out of the total of 5767 polling stations, there were photographs of the protocols.

Summary by Voice [155]
Polling stationsVotes for LukashenkoVotes for Tsikhanouskaya
with official datawhere Lukashenko led111566.6%20.4%
where Tsikhanouskaya led19531.3%56.7%
total131061.7%25.4%
without official data445788.5%†2.97%†
what would be required for consistency with the CEC results

The Voice report on the analysis of the official data, calculated that if both official results and photographs were correct, then at the polling stations where comparison was not possible (4457 out of 5847), Tsikhanouskaya would have to have had about 3% support. At the stations for which data were published, she received (according to Voice's analysis of the official data) 25% of the votes overall, split into 57% in the voting areas where she led, and 20% in those where she trailed. Voice described these differences as "extreme anomalies". [155]

Aftermath

After state TV revealed the results of an exit poll showing a landslide Lukashenko victory, clashes between protesters and riot police broke out in Minsk. Reports of injuries and the use of stun grenades and rubber bullets emerged. [156]

The main opposition candidate, Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, said in a news conference that she did not trust the exit poll, saying, "I believe my eyes, and I see that the majority is with us". [156]

As polling closed many internet service providers lost routing, the communication losses were widespread as police and military closed down most of Minsk. [157]

On the second night after the very likely falsified results were announced, protesters barricaded the area around the Rīga market. Security forces responded by tear-gassing the protesters and using flashbangs. [158]

After being released from a seven-hour-long detention on election night following her submission of a formal complaint to the Central Election Commission (CEC), Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya was escorted by Belarusian security services to Lithuania, reportedly a condition of a deal securing the release of her campaign manager, Maria Moroz. [159]

On 11 August, Tsikhanouskaya released a video reading from a script following her detainment, seemingly filmed under duress and promoted on state-sponsored media, [159] in which she called upon the people of Belarus to stop protesting and accept the victory of Lukashenko. The strong change in message and demeanor of Tsikhanouskaya post-detainment led allies to insist the video was coerced, likening it to a hostage video. [160] She had previously sent her children abroad before the elections for their safety. On 14 August, Tikhanovskaya, now in Lithuania, published another video in which she claimed to have won the presidential election with between 60 and 70% of the vote, more than enough to defeat Lukashenko outright. She called for the creation of a transitional council of "civil society activists, respected Belarusians and professionals" to handle the transfer of power from Lukashenko. She also encouraged her supporters to sign an online petition calling for a recount of the election. [5] [161]

Arrests and violence against protesters, including claims of torture, increased in the week after the election resulting in calls for international sanctions against the perpetrators. [5] On August 14, 2020, the Belarus Solidarity Foundation (BYSOL) was established. Its main aims are to support courtyard initiatives, emergency relocation, support for the families of political prisoners and helping those fired for political reasons. In 2020, BYSOL raised €2.9 million to support those fired for political reasons, striking factories, and people forced to relocate. [162]

On 19 August, the Belarusian Central Election Committee said that Mr Lukashenko would be inaugurated as president for a new term within the next two months. [163]

On 16 November 2020, BBC reported that more than 1,000 people were arrested during the demonstrations in Belarus, over the disputed presidential election. The police fired rubber bullets at protesters and also used tear gas to disperse the crowd. [164]

Deaths

29-year-old Konstantin Shishmakov, [165] director of the Volkovysk Military History Museum named after Bagration, disappeared on 15 August. He refused to sign the protocol of the election commission, called his wife at about 5 PM local time and said: "I will not work here anymore; I am going home." He was later found dead.

International reactions

International reactions to Lukashenko's re-election
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Belarus
Congratulated Lukashenko
Recognised Tsikhanouskaya as winner
Not recognised result
Expressed criticism over conflict escalation
No reaction BelarusElections2020-InternationalReaction.svg
International reactions to Lukashenko's re-election
  Belarus
  Congratulated Lukashenko
  Recognised Tsikhanouskaya as winner
  Not recognised result
  Expressed criticism over conflict escalation
  No reaction

Countries and organisations have voiced their opinions with some accepting and some rejecting the election result. Many have commented about the protests with more condemning the violence.

Countries and organisations resolving to impose sanctions:

See also

Related Research Articles

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