1994 Belarusian presidential election

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1994 Belarusian presidential election
Flag of Belarus (1918, 1991-1995).svg
23 June 1994 (first round)
10 July 1994 (second round)
2001  
Turnout78.97% (first round)
70.60% (second round)
  Alexander Lukashenko Signing Treaty on Establishing Russian-Belarusian Union (cropped).jpg Vyacheslav Kebich 1991 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Alexander Lukashenko Vyacheslav Kebich
Party Independent Independent
Popular vote4,241,026748,329
Percentage80.61%14.22%

Belarus 1994 first round.svg
First round results

Elected President

Alexander Lukashenko
Independent

Presidential elections were held in Belarus on 23 June 1994, with a second round on 10 July. [1] They were the first national elections held in Belarus since the country seceded from the Soviet Union three years earlier. The result was an overwhelming victory for Alexander Lukashenko, who received 81% of the vote in the second round. Voter turnout was 79% in the first round and 71% in the second. [2]

Contents

Background

On 15 March 1994 the Supreme Council adopted the Constitution of Belarus, which made Belarus a democracy with a presidential system. Until the ratification of the constitution, Chairman of the Supreme Council Myechyslaw Hryb had effectively ruled as both the head of state and head of the parliament.

The Constitution set the age requirement for presidential candidates at 35 and demanded at least 10 years of residency in the Republic of Belarus. Candidates could be proposed by 70 members of the Supreme Council, provided they also gathered 100,000 public signatures. For an election to be legitimate, it needed at least 50% voter participation and was conducted using a two-round system. [3]

On 6 April the Central Commission of the Republic of Belarus for Elections and Referendums established a timeline for the first presidential election, which outlined the role of local initiative groups in nominating candidates.

Candidates

Six candidates who were recognized by the government to have received the most signatures from Belarusian citizens and to have received substantial support from initiative group members became eligible to contest the first round.

CandidatePartyPositionPledges [a] Signatures
Vyacheslav Kebich Independent Prime Minister of Belarus 3,920371,967
Zianon Pazniak Belarusian Popular Front Head of the Belarusian Popular Front2,734216,855
Vasily Novikov  [ be ] Party of Belarusian Communists Secretary of the Central Committee of the Party of Belarusian Communists3,041183,836
Alexander Lukashenko IndependentChairman of the Anti-Corruption Commission of the Supreme Council156,391
Stanislav Shushkevich IndependentFormer Chairman of the Supreme Council1,420123,552
Alaksandar Dubko Belarusian Agrarian Party Chairman of the Union of Agrarians2,901116,693

Campaign

Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich's campaign was bolstered by the apparat of the Supreme Council and open support from Russia, [4] but his initial popular support dwindled following excessive coverage of his candidacy in government-sponsored media. [5] This controversy, in addition to widespread dissatisfaction with his economic reforms, [6] contributed to his defeat in the second round of voting.

Zianon Pazniak, the head of the Belarusian Popular Front, was the strongest proponent of a free-market economy out of all of the candidates. His support for a revitalized Belarusian identity that centered around the primary of the Belarusian culture and language led some opponents to criticize him for being too nationalistic. [5]

Vasily Novikov, the Secretary of the Central Committee of the Party of Belarusian Communists, advocated for a return to collectivization and an end to the process of privatization that had begun following Belarusian independence from the Soviet Union. [5]

Alexander Lukashenko released his campaign platform entitled "To Lead the People Away from the Abyss" on 14 June in the Narodnaya Gazeta , the state newspaper that was run by the Supreme Council. [7] His populist agenda outlined price stabilization, independence of the National Bank, and government austerity programs. A central promise of his campaign was to crush high-level corruption. Responding to criticism that he had no candidates for the position of Prime Minister, he reportedly stated that it was "easier than finding a milkman". [6] He also described a system of guaranteed welfare for vulnerable citizens that would be supported by progressive taxation. Regarding his foreign policy positions, Lukashenko expressed his desire to improve the international standing of Belarus, as well as to restore ties with Russia and Ukraine.

Stanislav Shushkevich, the former Chairman of the Supreme Council, centered his campaign around his role in achieving Belarusian independence from the Soviet Union and subsequent reforms despite substantial communist opposition in the Supreme Council. [5] He also expressed his support for a reduction in the state's role in moderating the economy. Prior to his tenure as Chairman, Shushkevich had also been a vocal critic of the Soviet Union's response to the Chernobyl disaster and its effects on Belarus. [8]

Alaksandar Dubko, the Chairman of the Union of Agrarians, was vocal in his support for collectivization in order to appeal to both agrarians and the peasantry. [5]

Opinion polls

According to a poll conducted by Eridan a week prior to the election, Lukashenko was predicted to lead with 21%, with Kebich at 17.3%, Pozniak at 11.6%, and Shushkevich at 9.9%. [5]

Opinion polls conducted by NOVAK: [9]

PollsterDateLukashenkoKebichPazniakShushkevichDubkoNovikov
Second round10 July80.6%14.2%
NOVAK27 June – 5 July53.8%18.6%
First round23 June45.8%17.7%13.1%10.1%6.1%4.4%
NOVAK10 – 18 June24.8%20.6%9,5%11.6%5.8%5.4%
NOVAK3 – 9 June21.3%21.8%11.9%13.1%1.7%5.8%
NOVAK7 April – 3 May28.0%15.1%5.5%10.2%

A poll conducted by Belarusian pollster NISEPI several months after the elections indicated that Lukashenko secured 80% of the vote in the second round among those who participated in the election. During the first round, his support was at 44.6% among Belarusian speakers and 27.6% among Russian speakers. [10]

Calculated based on NISEPI post-election poll [11]
Demographic subgroupDubko/Kebich/NovikovLukashenkoPozniak/Shushkevich % of total vote
Total vote254234100
Gender
Men24433346
Women25413454
Age
18–30 years old24334327
30–50 years old30353536
50 and older20532736
Educational attainment
Less than general secondary20572333
General secondary27403330
Vocational or higher27294437
Region
City of Minsk 20275317
Minsk 35393516
Brest 17503215
Grodno 28363610
Vitebsk 32422614
Mogilev 22492911
Gomel 16572716
Area type
Capital20275317
Oblast center29333819
>50,000 pop.44371910
<50,000 pop.27393418
Rural20542636
Self-assessment of one's financial situation
Poor/below average23363166
Average29333830
Better than average1929534
Which economic system is preferrable for Belarus?
Capitalism21235635
Socialism27551853
Other25294612

Conduct

During the election, Lukashenko claimed that he had been the target of a failed assassination attempt. [5] This claim was disputed by the Belarusian KGB despite police reports detailing an attempted car ramming of Lukashenko's vehicle followed by gunshots. [12]

After the first round, both Interfax and Agence France-Presse reported that a grenade had been thrown at the Belarusian secretary for national security. [5]

Results

CandidatePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Alexander Lukashenko Independent2,646,14045.764,241,02680.61
Vyacheslav Kebich Independent1,023,17417.69748,32914.22
Zianon Pazniak Belarusian Popular Front 757,19513.09
Stanislav Shushkevich Independent585,14310.12
Alaksandar Dubko Belarusian Agrarian Party 353,1196.11
Vasily Novikov  [ be ] Party of Belarusian Communists 253,0094.38
Against all165,0232.85271,7835.17
Total5,782,803100.005,261,138100.00
Valid votes5,782,80397.945,261,13899.67
Invalid/blank votes121,5092.0617,1930.33
Total votes5,904,312100.005,278,331100.00
Registered voters/turnout7,476,58678.977,476,20570.60
Source: Nohlen & Stöver

Results by region

First round

RegionLukashenkoKebichPazniakShushkevichDubkoNovikov
Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Brest 477,96953.47%123,86213.86%104,77911.72%77,7358.70%47,4035.30%28,3473.17%
Vitebsk 38707945.96%162,75119.32%79,2359.41%59,9677.12%56,5696.72%50,1465.95%
Gomel 40781345.57%206,57423.08%56,6076.33%76,8698.59%46,1015.15%44,6454.99%
Grodno 257,74336.31%103,55514.59%150,58121.21%73,69410.38%63,9729.01%23,2273.27%
Minsk 433,03744.46%145,36214.93%149,41215.34%84,2118.65%77,1337.92%41,7894.29%
Mogilev 451,45363.01%121,58316.97%33,4954.68%27,4343.83%31,3624.38%25,3123.53%
City of Minsk 230,91426.48%159,04918.24%182,89620.98%184,92321.21%30,5253.50%39,4904.53%
Overseas 13210.95%43836.32%19015.75%31025.70%504.48%534.39%
Total2,646,14044.82%1,023,17417.33%757,19512.82%585,1439.91%353,1195.98%253,0094.29%
Source: "Central Election Commission of Belarus" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 February 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2025.

Second round

RegionLukashenkoKebich
Votes %Votes %
Brest 707,53384.87%86,03510.32%
Vitebsk 617,07880.04%116,86715.15%
Gomel 637,22377.40%149,30518.13%
Grodno 517,01580.98%80,25412.57%
Minsk 745,11282.38%110,92712.26%
Mogilev 567,84385.29%77,52211.64%
City of Minsk 448,92170.00%127,11419.82%
Overseas 30141.92%30542.47%
Total4,241,02680.34%748,32914.17%
Source: "Central Election Commission of Belarus" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 February 2024. Retrieved 18 June 2025.

Maps

Aftermath

Lukashenko's victory was a surprise to many, as Prime Minister Vyacheslav Kebich had widely been expected to win by international observers despite extremely close polling results between the two candidates. [5] Regardless, the outcome of the election was recognized as legitimate by the international community. Furthermore, the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe expressed its view that Lukashenko's tenure as President would be a step towards a "more pluralistic democracy and free market system" in Belarus.

Upon his victory, Lukashenko pledged there would be "no dictatorship." [13] He was inaugurated as president on July 20. A 1995 referendum resulted in Lukashenko gaining the power to dissolve parliament, as well as restoring modified Soviet-era state symbols and initiating closer ties with Russia. In 1996 Lukashenko began further consolidating his authority with another referendum approving reforms that dramatically increased his powers and extended his original five-year term to 2001, after which he continued to win additional terms. As a result, the 1994 presidential election is considered the only free election held in Belarus since it broke away from the Soviet Union. [14] [15]

Notes

  1. Pledges received from initiative group members

References

  1. Dieter Nohlen & Philip Stöver (2010) Elections in Europe: A data handbook, p252 ISBN   978-3-8329-5609-7
  2. Nohlen & Stöver, p262
  3. Конституция Республики Беларусь 15 марта 1994 г. N 2875-XII [Constitution of the Republic of Belarus, March 15, 1994, No. 2875-XII] (Chapter 4) (in Russian). articles 96-97. Archived from the original on 29 December 2005.
  4. Erlanger, Steven (10 July 1994). "Voting Today In Ukraine And Belarus". New York Times . Archived from the original on 6 March 2022. Retrieved 17 June 2025. Mr. Kebich, 59, seems stunned by the popular anger and, like Mr. Kuchma in Ukraine, has found little benefit from Moscow's open political support
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (July 1994). Report on the Belarusian Presidential Election (PDF) (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on 1 March 2025.
  6. 1 2 "Populist in Belarus Sweeps To a Presidential Victory". New York Times . Reuters. 11 July 1994. Archived from the original on 25 January 2025. Retrieved 17 June 2025.
  7. "Двадцать лет назад Лукашенко впервые принес присягу на верность белорусскому народу". 2014-07-22. Archived from the original on 2014-07-22. Retrieved 2024-09-14.
  8. Genzlinger, Neil (May 4, 2022). "Stanislav Shushkevich, First Leader of Post-Soviet Belarus, Dies at 87". The New York Times .
  9. Vardomatsky, Andrei P [in Belarusian] (1995). "Выборы первого президента Белоруссии" [Elections of the First President of Belarus](PDF) (in Russian). Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 July 2008.
  10. Manaev 2006, pp. 46–47.
  11. Manaev 2006, pp. 92–94.
  12. "Presidential candidate shot on in Belarus - UPI Archives". UPI. Retrieved 2024-09-14.
  13. Specter, Michael (17 July 1994). "Belarus Winner Remakes His Image". New York Times . Archived from the original on 26 May 2015. Retrieved 17 June 2025.
  14. Why Does The “Last Dictatorship In Europe” Hold Elections? Belarus Digest, 26 March 2012
  15. Profile: Europe's last dictator? BBC News, 10 September 2001

Bibliography

Manaev, Oleg (2006). Президентские выборы в Беларуси: от ограниченной демократии к неограниченному авторитаризму (1994 – 2006) [Presidential Elections in Belarus: From Limited Democracy to Unlimited Authoritarianism (1994 – 2006)](PDF) (in Russian). Vilnius. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 June 2025. Retrieved 16 June 2025.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)