2023 Port Waikato by-election

Last updated

2023 Port Waikato by-election
Flag of New Zealand.svg
←  2023 25 November 20232026 →
Port Waikato constituency of the House of Representatives
Turnout18,728 (35.69%)
 First partySecond party
  Andrew Bayly (cropped).png Casey Costello (crop).jpg
Candidate Andrew Bayly Casey Costello
Party National NZ First
Popular vote14,2962,864
Percentage76.33%15.30%
2023 Port Waikato by-election map results by polling station.svg
Results by polling location
Bayly:     <50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     >80%
MP before election

Andrew Bayly
National

Elected MP

Andrew Bayly
National

The 2023 Port Waikato by-election was held on 25 November 2023. The by-election was triggered by the death of Neil Christensen, who was a candidate for the ACT Party. Christensen's death occurred after the close of candidate nominations for the 2023 New Zealand general election, but before polling day. The by-election was won by National incumbent Andrew Bayly, who has held the Port Waikato seat and its predecessor Hunua since 2014.

Contents

Background

2023 general election

Advance voting for the 2023 general election started on 2 October 2023. [1] Christensen's death was announced on 9 October 2023, one week into the advanced voting period. [2] Because New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional voting system, Port Waikato constituents continued to cast a party vote vote in the general election, but the electorate vote was suspended and any electorate votes already cast were nullified. [3] [4] [5] It was the first time since the 1957 election that an electorate vote had been delayed due to the death of a candidate. [6]

One of the effects of the by-election will be that the winner will add another seat to Parliament beyond those elected at the general election. At the general election, the seat that would have been filled by the Port Waikato winner was instead filled by a list MP. The winner of the by-election will also enter parliament without ejecting any existing MP. [3]

Electorate

The Port Waikato electorate was first established in 1996, ahead of the first MMP election. The electorate was abolished in 2008 and reinstated for the 2020 election. It stretches from the Manukau Heads at the southern entrance to the Manukau Harbour, south past the eponymous settlement of Port Waikato, to Matira and Pepepe, and inland to Mangatāwhiri and the Maramarua Forest. Pukekohe is the largest population centre in the electorate. Other significant towns include Pōkeno, Te Kauwhata, Tuakau and Waiuku. The electorate includes the New Zealand Steel mill at Glenbrook, and the lower reaches of the Waikato River. [7]

Between the 2013 and 2018 censuses, the Port Waikato electorate experienced annual average population growth of 3.3%, considerably higher than the annual average rate for New Zealand as a whole (2.1%). The electorate is predominantly European (78.2%) and Maori (19.0%), with the shares of those identifying as Asian (8.8%), and Pacific Peoples (6.1%), somewhat lower than the average for New Zealand as a whole. Over a quarter (26.3%) of families had a combined income between $100,000 and $150,000 per year – the second-largest among general electorates. [7]

Election schedule

Key dates relating to the by-election are as follows: [8]

10 October (Tuesday)Port Waikato electorate by-election dates formally announced
16 October (Monday)Writ Day Governor General issues writ directing the Electoral Commission to hold the Port Waikato by-election
20 October, noon (Friday)Nominations close for candidates in the Port Waikato by-election
20 October (Friday)Port Waikato by-election candidates announced by the Electoral Commission
21 October (Saturday)Ballot paper printing starts
8 November (Wednesday)Overseas voting starts
13 November (Monday)Advance voting starts
24 November (Friday)All political advertising ceases and election signs taken down by midnight
25 November (Saturday)Election day for Port Waikato by-election
Voting places open from 9am to 7pm
25 November (Saturday)Preliminary Results progressively available from 7pm
6 December (Wednesday)Official Results declared (including special declaration and overseas votes)
11 December (Monday)Deadline for applications for judicial recount
12 December (Tuesday)Return of Writ by Electoral Commission naming successful candidate (presuming no recount)
26 March 2024 (Tuesday)Deadline for Returns of Candidate Election Expenses and Donations to Electoral Commission

Candidates

All candidates had nominated to contest Port Waikato at the 2023 general election were re-nominated, unless they withdrew. [9] On 20 October, the Labour Party announced that its candidate, Gwendoline Keel, would not contest the by-election, because the party viewed it as "unwinnable" and sought to focus on building a strong opposition against the newly elected government. [10] Green Party candidate Karla Buchanan also withdrew her nomination, while ACT did not nominate a replacement candidate. [11]

PartyCandidateBackground
National Andrew Bayly Incumbent MP for Port Waikato; originally nominated for the general election
DemocracyNZ Scotty BrightOriginally nominated for the general election
NZ First Casey Costello Originally nominated for the general election
Independent Gordon DicksonNew nomination; stood in East Coast at the general election.
NewZeal Alfred Ngaro New nomination; originally nominated as a list-only candidate for the general election
Women's Rights Jill Ovens New nomination; originally nominated as a list-only candidate for the general election
Animal Justice Anna RipponOriginally nominated for the general election
Vision NZ Vijay SudhamallaOriginally nominated for the general election
New Zealand Loyal Kim TurnerOriginally nominated for the general election

Andrew Bayly has held the seat since 2014. About a week before polling day, 1 News described Andrew Bayly as "a clear favourite", but that he was "facing a strong challenge from NZ First's Casey Costello". [12]

Campaign

The Democracy NZ candidate, Scotty Bright, stopped campaigning and endorsed the New Zealand First candidate, Casey Costello, saying "It's about Port Waikato being represented by the best party, and we think NZ First has the best ability to do that." [12]

Results

An estimated 18,759 votes were cast in the by-election, with an estimated turnout of 35.8% of the electorate. [13] This compares to a turnout of 78.2% for the 2023 general election. [14]

Final results show Andrew Bayly of the National party winning with a 11,432 vote margin over his nearest rival, Casey Costello of New Zealand First. [15]

As Bayly had already been elected as a list MP in the 2023 general election, his win meant that National elected an additional MP from its list, Nancy Lu, who became the 123rd member of parliament. [15]

The following table shows the final results of the by-election. [16]

2023 Port Waikato by-election

Notes: Blue background denotes the winner of the by-election.
Pink background denotes a candidate elected from their party list prior to the by-election.
Yellow background denotes the winner of the by-election, who was a list MP prior to the by-election.
A Green check.svgY or Red x.svgN denotes status of any incumbent, win or lose respectively.

PartyCandidateVotes%±%
National Green check.svgY Andrew Bayly 14,29676.33+37.48
NZ First Casey Costello 2,86415.30
NewZeal Alfred Ngaro 4092.18+1.74
Animal Justice Anna Rippon2971.58
New Zealand Loyal Kim Turner2371.27
DemocracyNZ Scotty Bright2251.20
Women's Rights Jill Ovens 1881.00
Independent Gordon Dickson880.47
Vision NZ Vijay Sudhamalla480.26
Informal votes760.41–1.26
Majority18,72861.03+50.35
Turnout 18,72835.69
National hold Swing

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1996 New Zealand general election</span> General election in New Zealand

The 1996 New Zealand general election was held on 12 October 1996 to determine the composition of the 45th New Zealand Parliament. It was notable for being the first election to be held under the new mixed-member proportional (MMP) electoral system, and produced a parliament considerably more diverse than previous elections. Under the new MMP system, 65 members were elected in single-member districts by first-past-the-post voting, while a further 55 "top-up" members were allocated from closed lists to achieve a proportional distribution based on each party's share of the nationwide party vote.

Barbara Joy Stewart was a New Zealand politician. She was a Member of Parliament for the New Zealand First party from 2002 to 2008 and again from 2011 to 2017.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bay of Plenty (New Zealand electorate)</span> Electoral district in New Zealand

Bay of Plenty is a New Zealand electoral division returning one member to the New Zealand House of Representatives. The current representative is Tom Rutherford of the National Party, first elected at the 2023 election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Christchurch Central</span> Electoral district in Canterbury, New Zealand

Christchurch Central is a New Zealand parliamentary electorate in the South Island city of Christchurch. The electorate was established for the 1946 election and, until 2011 had always been won by the Labour Party. Since 2008, the incumbent was Brendon Burns but the election night results for the 2011 election resulted in a tie; the special vote results combined with a judicial recount revealed a 47-vote majority for Nicky Wagner, the National list MP based in the electorate. Wagner significantly increased her winning margin in the 2014 election after having declared the electorate "unwinnable" for National earlier in the year following a boundary review. At the 2017 election Wagner lost the seat to Labour's Duncan Webb, who retained it at the 2020 election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hamilton West (New Zealand electorate)</span> Electoral district in Waikato, New Zealand

Hamilton West is a New Zealand parliamentary electorate. It has been held by Tama Potaka MP of the National Party since the 2022 by-election.

Port Waikato is a New Zealand parliamentary electorate which existed for four parliamentary terms from 1996 to 2008, and was recreated by the 2019/20 electoral redistribution ahead of the 2020 election. It was held by Bill Birch for one term, and by Paul Hutchison for the following three terms. From 2020, it was held by Andrew Bayly. All of these were members of the National Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Candidates in the 2008 New Zealand general election by electorate</span>

Seventy of the one hundred and twenty members of the New Zealand House of Representatives elected in New Zealand's 2008 general election will be from single member constituencies, an increase of one electorate seat from 2005. The initial composition of the 2005 Parliament gave the Labour and National parties each 31 constituencies, the Māori Party four and ACT, United Future and the Progressive Party one each.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Botany (New Zealand electorate)</span> Electoral district in Auckland, New Zealand

Botany is a New Zealand parliamentary electorate, returning one Member of Parliament to the New Zealand House of Representatives. It was contested for the first time at the 2008 general election, and won by Pansy Wong for the National Party. Following Wong's resignation in late 2010, a by-election returned Jami-Lee Ross, who was confirmed by the voters in the 2011 general election. Ross left the National Party in October 2018 and became an independent. Ross did not contest the seat at the 2020 general election, and was succeeded by the new National candidate, Christopher Luxon, who became the party's leader in November 2021 and has served as prime minister since November 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Port Hills (New Zealand electorate)</span> Former electorate in Canterbury, New Zealand

Port Hills was a parliamentary electorate of New Zealand that existed for the 2008 through 2017 general elections. Ruth Dyson of the Labour Party had previously held the Banks Peninsula electorate since the 1999 election that was largely replaced by Port Hills, and held Port Hills for its entire existence before retiring ahead of the 2020 election. The Port Hills electorate was mostly urban, and lost the more rural Banks Peninsula areas of the old electorate to the Selwyn electorate that was also formed for the 2008 election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Andrew Bayly</span> New Zealand politician

Andrew Henry Bayly is a New Zealand businessman, adventurer, and politician. He was elected to the New Zealand Parliament at the 2014 general election as the MP for Hunua, representing the New Zealand National Party. He is currently the MP for Port Waikato.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2020 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday 17 October 2020 to determine the composition of the 53rd New Zealand Parliament. Voters elected 120 members to the House of Representatives, 72 from single-member electorates and 48 from closed party lists. Two referendums, one on the personal use of cannabis and one on euthanasia, were also held on the same day. Official results of the election and referendums were released on 6 November.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tim van de Molen</span> New Zealand National Party politician

Timothy John van de Molen is a New Zealand politician. He is a Member of the House of Representatives for the Waikato electorate and a representative of the National Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 New Zealand general election</span> General election for the 54th Parliament of New Zealand

The 2023 New Zealand general election was held on 14 October 2023 to determine the composition of the 54th Parliament of New Zealand. Voters elected 122 members to the unicameral New Zealand House of Representatives under the mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system, with 71 members elected from single-member electorates and the remaining members elected from closed party lists. Of the 72 electorates, only 71 seats were filled, with the remaining electorate MP determined in the 2023 Port Waikato by-election, due to the death of one of the general election candidates. Two overhang seats were added due to Te Pāti Māori winning six electorate seats when the party vote only entitled them to four seats, with an additional overhang seat added after the by-election making for 123 members of parliament.

Heartland New Zealand is a New Zealand political party founded in 2020. The party is rural-based, and opposed the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme, the Paris Agreement, and attempts to limit the environmental impacts of agriculture.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nancy Lu</span> New Zealand National Party politician

Nancy Nan Lu is a New Zealand politician and Member of Parliament in the House of Representatives for the National Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Candidates in the 2023 New Zealand general election by electorate</span>

This page lists candidates contesting electorates in the 2023 New Zealand general election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">54th New Zealand Parliament</span> Current New Zealand parliamentary term

The 54th New Zealand Parliament is the current meeting of the legislature in New Zealand. It opened on 5 December 2023 following the 14 October 2023 general election, and will expire on or before 16 November 2026 to trigger the next election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Party lists in the 2023 New Zealand general election</span>

The 2023 New Zealand general election was held on Saturday, 14 October 2023 to determine the membership of the 54th New Zealand Parliament. This page lists candidates by party, including their ranking on a list. Full official lists were published on 16 September.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Casey Costello</span> New Zealand politician

Cassandra Jane "Casey" Costello is a right-wing New Zealand politician, lobbyist and former police officer. She was elected to the New Zealand House of Representatives, representing the New Zealand First party, in the 2023 New Zealand general election. She was appointed Minister of Customs, Minister for Seniors and Associate Minister of Health in the Sixth National Government of New Zealand.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Results of the 2023 New Zealand general election</span>

This article summarises results of the 14 October 2023 New Zealand general election, including both party vote and electorate vote outcomes.

References

  1. ↑ "About the 2023 General Election". Vote NZ. Archived from the original on 19 January 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  2. ↑ "ACT's Port Waikato candidate, Neil Christensen, dies". Waikato Times . 10 October 2023. Archived from the original on 16 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  3. 1 2 Cheng, Derek (9 October 2023). "Election 2023: Act candidate Neil Christensen dies, by-election to be held for Port Waikato". The New Zealand Herald . Archived from the original on 9 October 2023. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  4. ↑ Ensor, Jamie (9 October 2023). "Election 2023: By-election to be held after election after candidate dies". Newshub . Archived from the original on 9 October 2023. Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  5. ↑ Sowman-Lund, Stewart (9 October 2023). "What the Port Waikato byelection means for the next parliament". The Spinoff . Archived from the original on 16 October 2023. Retrieved 12 October 2023.
  6. ↑ "Clutha Election for January 18". The Press . Vol. XCVI, no. 28452. 5 December 1957. p. 16. Archived from the original on 18 February 2022. Retrieved 18 February 2022.
  7. 1 2 "Port Waikato electorate profile". Parliamentary Library. 3 August 2020. Archived from the original on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 10 October 2023. Creative Commons by small.svg  This article incorporates textby the Parliamentary Library available under the CC BY 4.0 license.
  8. ↑ "Key dates for Port Waikato by-election". Elections.nz. 14 October 2023. Archived from the original on 16 October 2023. Retrieved 10 October 2023.
  9. ↑ "Electoral Act 1993, section 153E(4)". Archived from the original on 12 March 2023. Retrieved 11 October 2023.
  10. ↑ "Port Waikato by-election: Labour won't stand a candidate in 'unwinnable' by-election". Radio New Zealand . 20 October 2023. Archived from the original on 19 October 2023. Retrieved 19 October 2023.
  11. ↑ "Port Waikato by-election candidates announced". Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 20 October 2023. Retrieved 20 October 2023.
  12. 1 2 "Fascinating contest brewing in Port Waikato by-election". 1 News. 19 November 2023. Archived from the original on 19 November 2023. Retrieved 19 November 2023.
  13. ↑ "Port Waikato by-election preliminary results". 25 November 2023. Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  14. ↑ "Election turnout by age and descent". 15 December 2023. Retrieved 3 January 2024.
  15. 1 2 Stanford, Emma (26 November 2023). "Port Waikato by-election: National's Andrew Bayly wins by landslide – 'I feel pretty humbled'". Radio New Zealand . Retrieved 26 November 2023.
  16. ↑ "Port Waikato – Official Result". Electoral Commission. 6 December 2023. Archived from the original on 7 December 2023. Retrieved 7 December 2023.
    This page is based on this Wikipedia article
    Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
    Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.