2024 North Macedonian parliamentary election

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2024 North Macedonian parliamentary election
Flag of North Macedonia.svg
  2020 8 May 2024

All 123 seats in the Assembly
62 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
Your Macedonia [lower-alpha 1] Hristijan Mickoski 43
For a European Future [lower-alpha 2] Dimitar Kovačevski 40
European Front [lower-alpha 3] Ali Ahmeti 23
VLEN Coalition [lower-alpha 4] Bilall Kasami  [ mk ]8
Levica Dimitar Apasiev 2
Brave for Macedonia [lower-alpha 5] Stevčo Jakimovski 1

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in North Macedonia on 8 May 2024, potentially alongside a second round of presidential elections, if a run-off is required. [1]

Contents

Electoral system

North Macedonia's six constituencies Constituencies of North Macedonia.svg
North Macedonia's six constituencies

Of the 123 seats in the Assembly of the Republic, 120 are elected from six 20-seat constituencies in North Macedonia using closed list proportional representation, with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are elected by Macedonians living abroad, [2] but are only filled if the number of votes exceeds that of the elected candidate with the fewest votes in North Macedonia in the previous election. If a list crosses this threshold, it wins one seat; to win two seats, a list needs to win twice the number of votes, and to win three seats the threshold is three times the number of votes. These seats were not filled in the 2016 elections due to insufficient turnout. [3]

Opinion polls

Moving average of the main political parties before the 2024 election. Mkpoll2024.png
Moving average of the main political parties before the 2024 election.
Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
For a European Future VLENEuropean Front VMRO-DPMNE Levica ZNAM OthersLead
SDSM LDP/DOM Besa LD A ASh [lower-alpha 6] BDI PDSh
CRPC 20 Apr 2024125025.614.59.5387.25.00.211.2
CRPC 8-13 Apr 2024121026.812.711.337.56.45.310.7
МКД.мк 15-24 Mar 2024120016.011.51.613.040.87.98.20.724.8
CRPC 4-7 Mar 2024108524.613.611.639.45.55.314.8
IPIS 20 Feb 2024121221.88.64.111.538.66.05.02.418.8
IPDV 5–9 Nov 2023105023.04.43.31.68.29.735.65.98.212.6
IPIS 29 Oct 2023105521.84.41.93.53.910.836.26.85.62.117.4
IPIS 23–26 May 20231,11221.64.4512.438.212.35.70.816.6
IRI 8 Apr4 May 20231,204177281432117 [lower-alpha 7] 15
NDI 13–14 Apr 20231,00323.66.66.311.439.610.33.1216
IPIS Mar 20231,11427.18.54.927.1 [lower-alpha 8] 39.210.19.211.1
IDSCS 22 Feb9 Mar 20231,00224271838914
МКД.мк 6–16 Feb 20231,20022.30.24.16.714.739.28.13.416.9
IRI 19 Dec 20221,20016.37.07.813.333.312.38.817
МКД.мк 7–13 Nov 20221,20020.30.97.33.53.913.60.740.98.91.120.6
IPIS 4–6 May 20221,11130.12.81.97.113.439.45.49.3
IPIS 19–22 Oct 20211,10228.92.82.68.011.037.76.68.8
2021 Skopje election 17 Oct 202124.044.201.005.1711.9135.899.194.17 [lower-alpha 9] 11.9
Kantar TNS Brima 27 Aug9 Sep 20211,20130.87.49.511.41.727.67.43.2
Kantar TNS Brima 28 May16 Jun 20211,19433.06.810.311.02.828.57.54.5
Kantar TNS Brima 4–6 Apr 20211,22227.96.68.211.51.627.99.8Tie
IPIS 1–4 Mar 20211,10931.91.78.910.434.76.62.8
M-Prospect 16–24 Dec 20201,00031.74.10.97.811.42.430.810.60.3 [lower-alpha 10] 0.9
2020 election 15 Jul 202035.898.9511.481.5334.574.103.491.3

Hypothetical polls

Nikola Gruevski forms a new party

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
SDSM LDP/DOM Besa PDSh A ASh VMRO-DPMNE BDI Levica ZNAM Gruevski OthersLead
Stratum R&D 1–6 Oct 20231,11227.57.34.717.610.89.13.116.03.89.9

Notes

  1. Consists of: VMRO-DPMNE (36 Seats), SPM (2), DPSM (1), DS (1), PODEM (1), ROM (1), Party of Vlachs from Macedonia, VOICE for Macedonia, NLP, SDU, DPR, RZPRM, OPER, Dignity, TMRO, MAAK, United for Macedonia and Macedonian Concept
  2. Consists of: SDSM (31 Seats), LDP (2), NSDP (2), VMRO-NP (1), PDT (1), DOM (1), POPGM (1), SSM (1), DNET, SNSM, BNP, DSR, DSVM, SRM, Party of Democratic Action of Macedonia, Desnica, PDPR and POEN
  3. Consists of: BDI (13 Seats), Alliance for Albanians Sela's - led (6), PDSH (1), Democratic European Party (1), People's Movement (1), DPT (1), Movement of Turks for Justice and Democracy, Union of Roma in Macedonia and Bosniak Democratic Union
  4. Consists of: Democratic Movement (3 Seats), Alternativa (2), Alliance for Albanians Taravari's - led (2) and the Besa Movement (1)
  5. Consists of: GROM (1), INTEGRA and PCER
  6. In early 2024 two factions emerged within ASh. A faction led by incumbent leader Arben Taravari intended to join VLEN and he later became the calition's presidential candidate, while a faction led by former leader Ziadin Sela eventually joined the European Front coalition. Both wings of the party held conferences and elected their respective leader as party chairman. The Macedonian electoral commission lists ASh as a member of VLEN, while a court decision ruled that Sela is the official party leader. The decision is being appealed.
  7. DPTM 2%
  8. BDI and SDSM together
  9. Green Humane City
  10. Integra – Macedonian Conservative Party

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References

  1. "Parliamentary elections in North Macedonia/ The date when they will be held is revealed". CNA. 4 December 2023.
  2. Electoral system IPU
  3. Early Parliamentary Elections 11 December 2016 OSCE