The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime choke point for global energy trade, has experienced ongoing geopolitical and economic disruption since 28 February 2026, following joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, which included the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei. In response, Iran launched retaliatory missile and drone attacks on US military bases, Israeli territory and other Gulf states, while its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) issued warnings prohibiting vessel passage through the strait, leading to an effective halt in shipping traffic.
The warnings and subsequent attacks on vessels caused a sharp decline in maritime transit, with tanker traffic dropping first by approximately 70% and over 150 ships anchoring outside the strait to avoid risks,[2][3] and soon traffic went to about zero. This disruption affected about 20% of the world's daily oil supply and significant volumes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), prompting major shipping firms to suspend operations in the area.[4][5] Oil and gas prices surged, with Brent Crude rising up to US$126 per barrel at its peak, amid fears of prolonged supply shortages that could push prices toward $100 per barrel.[3][6][7] Crude oil prices surpassed $100 per barrel on 8 March 2026 for the first time in four years.[8]
Background
Diagram showing 2024 daily average of LNG transported through the strait
The strait is 21miles wide (34 km) at its narrowest point, forming a seaway passage between Iran and Oman. Its two unidirectionalsea lanes facilitate the transit of around 20 million barrels of oil per day, representing roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade, primarily from producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Qatar.[9][2] In 2024, an estimated 84% of crude oil and condensate shipments through the strait were destined for Asian markets.[4] Europe gets 12% to 14% of its LNG from Qatar, through the strait.[10]
Tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel escalated in the lead-up to 2026, stemming from failed nuclear negotiations in Geneva and a prior 12-day air conflict in 2025.[11] Iran had signaled potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz in response to threats, including a temporary partial closure earlier in the month as a warning.[11]
During 15 to 20 February, Iran increased its oil export to three times its normal rate and reduced oil storage to reduce risk of disruptions. Saudi Arabia also attempted similar moves.[12]
In the days before the strikes, war-riskship insurance premiums for the strait increased from 0.125% to between 0.2% and 0.4% of the ship insurance value per transit. For very large oil tankers, this is an increase of a quarter of a million dollars.[13][14]
Escalation
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury, targeting military facilities, nuclear sites, and leadership, resulting in the death of Ali Khamenei.[7][14] Iran responded with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases in the Gulf, including in the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, causing casualties and infrastructure damage.[15][16] The conflict expanded to Lebanon, where Iran-backed Hezbollah launched rockets into Israel, prompting Israeli counterstrikes.[17]
Within hours of the strikes, the IRGC transmitted warnings via VHF radio to vessels in the strait, stating that no ships would be permitted to pass.[4][3][37] Although the closure is not legally binding as Iran did not formally declare a blockade, military and industry sources say that safety cannot be guaranteed, and several ships stayed in port or turned back.[38] The threats led to a partial closure, with ship-tracking data first showing a 70% reduction in traffic.[2]
On 1 March, the oil tanker Skylight was struck by a projectile north of Khasab, Oman, killing two Indian crew members and injuring three others. It was sanctioned by the US Department of Treasury for links to the Iranian shadow fleet. The MKD VYOM was struck by a drone boat, sparking a fire and an explosion in its engine room. An Indian sailor was killed. Another Indian was critically wounded on the LCT Ayeh.[18][19]
On 2 March 2026, a senior official in the IRGC officially confirmed that the strait was closed, subsequently threatening any ship that passed through it.[39] The US-flagged Stena Imperative was struck twice at the port of Bahrain, causing a fire.[26] A port worker was killed and two others were hurt in the attack, although the ship's crew were unharmed.[40] The Athe Nova, which has links to Iran, was struck by two drones after attempting to illegally cross the Strait of Hormuz, according to the IRGC-linked Tasnim News Agency.[27]
Just after midnight 2 March, no tankers in the strait broadcast automatic identification system signals, indicating low or no traffic,[41] however with unreliable data and satellite navigation device basis.[13][42]Protection and indemnity insurance was removed for 5 March, making the economic risk too high for ship owners to use the strait. The strait was declared a high risk zone, yielding extra pay and right of refusal for crewmembers. The strait remained technically open, but effectively closed.[41]
On 4 March, the IRGC claimed that they had achieved complete control of the strait.[43] By then, at least eight vessels had been damaged. A Malta-flagged ship, Safeen Prestige, was struck, forcing its crew to evacuate. Meanwhile, the Pola, which had earlier turned its AIS transponder off, managed to pass through the strait and deliver its cargo to the UAE, despite the blockade.[29] In the late night, a large explosion struck the oil tanker Sonangol Namibe, which was anchored near Mubarak Al Kabeer Port, Kuwait, causing an oil spill that posed an environmental risk. A small vessel was observed leaving the scene following the attack.[32][44] The IRGC said that it hit a US oil tanker.[45] On 6 March, a tugboat dispatched to assist the Safeen Prestige was struck by two missiles and later sank, leaving at least three crew members missing.[33][34] On 7 March, the IRGC claimed that it hit the oil tanker Prima with a drone in the Persian Gulf,[35] and a US oil tanker, the "Louise P", with a drone in the Strait of Hormuz.[36]
Exceptions to the blockade
On 4 March, reports emerged that Iran would allow only Chinese vessels to pass through the strait, citing China's supportive stance towards Iran since the conflict intensified. China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, and had stressed the importance of protecting global shipping routes.[46][47] Subsequently, on 5 March, the bulk carrier Iron Maiden, operated by Cetus Maritime Shanghai Ltd., transited the strait while signalling "CHINA OWNER". Earlier, the LPG tanker Bogazici had broadcast that it was a Muslim-owned and Turkish-operated vessel, and successfully passed through.[48] On 7 March, another bulk carrier, the Liberia-flagged Sino Ocean, broadcast its Chinese-owned-and-operated status to transit the strait after picking up its cargo from the UAE's Mina Saqr port.[49]
On 5 March, the IRGC announced that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed only to ships from the US, Israel and their Western allies. This was confirmed again on 8 March.[50][51]
Impacts
Late on 28 February, outgoing traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was heavy, while ingoing traffic was light.[52] At least three tankers were struck near the strait, including one off Oman that was set ablaze.[53][6] At least 17 oil tankers continued travelling through the strait.[54] On 1 and 2 March, no ships appeared in the strait.[41]
Major container shipping companies, including Maersk, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd, suspended transits through the strait and related routes such as the Red Sea.[55][56]Houthi-controlled Yemen announced on 28 February that it would resume attacks on Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea,[57] forcing Suez Canal traffic to be rerouted around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This added weeks to transit times and increased shipping costs. The crisis disrupted global energy supplies and stranded tankers in the Persian Gulf.[58]
The crisis sent shockwaves through global energy markets and raised security concerns. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil and natural gas normally passes through the strait, and the disruptions caused Brent crude prices to jump 10–13% in early trading, with analysts warning they could reach $100 per barrel or higher if disruptions persist.[59][6][60] The spike in prices is especially problematic in Asia, where major importers like China and India could face supply shortages and price volatility.[61]Natural gas prices in Europe also surged, rising from €30/MWh the past week, to €46/MWh on Monday, 2 March,[10] peaking above €60/MWh on Tuesday, 3 March (nearly double from previous week),[62] before decreasing again to €48/MWh on Wednesday, 4 March.[63] The shipping disruption contributed to volatility in United Kingdom energy markets, with analysts warning that wholesale gas price increases could raise household energy bills and expose the country’s reliance on global fuel markets.[64]
OPEC+ pledged to increase oil output by 206,000 barrels per day to mitigate shortages.[6] The disruptions also raised concerns over inflation and potential economic downturns in oil-importing nations.[65]
Analysts from institutions like Barclays and Goldman Sachs highlighted risks of sustained high oil prices if the strait is restricted over a longer period.[14][7]
Cruise ships reduced activity in the Persian Gulf and stopped using the strait,[66] stranding 15,000 passengers on six major cruise ships.[67] On 3 March, Bloomberg reported that Iraq started shutting down operations at the Rumaila oil field due to a lack of storage space, as tankers were unable to leave the strait.[68]
On 4 March, Pakistan, a country reliant on imported oil that was looking for alternative shipment routes due to the closure, officially requested that Saudi Arabia reroute oil supplies through Yanbu's Red Sea port, with Saudi Arabia providing assurances and arranging at least one crude shipment to bypass the closed strait. Saudi authorities were also reportedly considering diverting some of their own crude exports via Yanbu to reduce the impact of the disruption.[69]
Due to rising tensions in the Middle East involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, Japanese refiners have asked the government to release some of their stockpiled oil. The refiners obtain about 95% of their crude oil from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. They seek access to this stock to help ensure smooth refinery operations and an adequate crude supply. About 70% of this Middle Eastern oil is delivered to Japan by ships that pass through the Strait of Hormuz.[70]
On 6 March, Qatari Energy Minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi warned that if the war continues, other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure (Qatar had already stopped gas production on 2 March and declared Force Majeure on gas contracts on 4 March), and that "this will bring down economies of the world".[71] This announcement caused a jump in global oil prices.[72] The Indian Government also proposed to deploy the country's Navy to safeguard the oil supplies it receives.[73]
On 7 March, Kuwait declared force majeure and announced it would be cutting its oil production.[74] The United Arab Emirates also lowered its oil production.[8]
On 8 March, crude oil prices surpassed US$100 per barrel for the first time in four years, since the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. As of that day, production at the three main oil fields in southern Iraq had dropped by 70% since the start of the war, from 4.3 million barrels per day to 1.3 million.[8]
This page is based on this Wikipedia article Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply. Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.
