Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections

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Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections
Intelligence Community Assessment - Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections.pdf
Copy of declassified report
Author Office of the Director of National Intelligence
LanguageEnglish
Subject Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections
Publication date
January 6, 2017
Pages15 (declassified edition)

Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections (also abbreviated as Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections, [1] Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent Elections [2] or simply Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions) is a report issued by the United States Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) that assessed the extent and basis of Russia's interference in United States' elections in 2016. Published on January 6, 2017, the report includes an assessment by the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation of the type and breadth of actions undertaken by Russia and affiliated elements during the elections. The report examines Russia's utilization of cyberspace such as hacking and the use of internet trolls and bots, and an intensive media campaign to influence public opinion in the United States. Additionally, it analyzes Russia's intentions and motivations in regards to their influence campaign. Issued in two forms, a classified version and a declassified version, the report drew its conclusions based on highly classified intelligence, an understanding of past Russian actions, and sensitive sources and methods.

Contents

Background

Between 2015 and 2016, computer hackers affiliated with Russian intelligence breached the Democratic National Committee and began scoping its servers and lifting large amounts of data in the form of e-mails, donor lists, opposition research, etc. This information was published during the summer of 2016 by DCLeaks and WikiLeaks. [3] [4] In March 2016, John Podesta, the chairman of the Hillary Clinton campaign, was the target of a spear-phishing attack which stole more than 20,000 pages of e-mails that were subsequently dumped by WikiLeaks later in the fall of 2016. [5] [6]

On October 7, 2016, roughly one month before Election Day, the Department of Homeland Security in conjunction with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the independent agency charged with overseeing and integrating the US Intelligence Community, released a statement expressing confidence that the Russian government was attempting to influence the upcoming election. The statement accused Russia of hacking and disseminating e-mails, and probing election databases, reading "We believe, based on the scope and sensitivity of these efforts, that only Russia's senior-most officials could have authorized these activities." [7] [8] One month after the election, on December 9, outgoing President Barack Obama directed intelligence agencies to conduct a "full review" of Russian influence operations on the US electoral process back to 2008. [9] [10] A preliminary Joint Analysis Report (JAR) was released by the DHS and FBI on December 29, which provided specific details on the type of cyber-tools and infrastructure utilized by Russian intelligence services in compromising and exploiting American systems. [11]

Contents

The version of Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections released for public consumption contained the same conclusions as the classified version, however, complete supporting information for the claims made in the public report was omitted due to its classified nature. The intelligence used was compiled by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the National Security Agency (NSA), and throughout the report confidence-levels by the agencies relating to specific claims were measured.

In the report, it is explicitly made known that the US Intelligence Community only analyzed and monitored the intentions, capabilities, and actions of the Russian government, and not what, if any, impact their influence campaign had on US public opinion or the US political process. [12] Much of the content was focused on RT, the Kremlin-funded television network, and its purported role in attempting to manipulate US public opinion and discourse. [13] The report was the most detailed public collection of Russian efforts to meddle in the 2016 elections released as of January 2017. [14]

According to CNN, the CIA and FBI took Steele's dossier "seriously enough that they kept it out of" the January 6, 2017, assessment "in order to not divulge which parts of the dossier they had corroborated and how." [15]

Russian actions in the 2016 election

RT-specific assessments

Russian government intentions in the 2016 election

The report affirmed that numerous past incidents had motivated the Russian government to wage an influence operation in support of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. Vladimir Putin believed that Russia was being demeaned on the international stage by a series of scandals he publicly attributed to the United States, such as the Olympic doping scandal and the Panama Papers. Putin sought to use the leaks of politically damaging material in the US as a method of tarnishing the image of the United States. [16] In addition, Putin also held a personal vendetta against former-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for what he saw as her personal hand in a series of protests in Russia from 2011 to 2012 as well as remarks by Clinton that Putin held were maligning. [17] [18] According to the report, when a Clinton victory appeared likely, Russia shifted its strategy from aiding Trump's candidacy to sabotaging Clinton's legitimacy, and questioning the trustworthiness of the election.

Notably, the Putin government also surmised that their actions would contribute to Russia's aim of threatening and eroding the "US-led liberal democratic order" which Russia views as a threat to its country and the regime. [19] [20]

Release and reception

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper Director of National Intelligence James Clapper.jpg
Director of National Intelligence James Clapper

On the afternoon of January 6, 2017, the ODNI published the declassified edition of the report titled Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections, less than one month after the Obama administration had requested a thorough review. Earlier in the day, FBI director James Comey, CIA director John Brennan, NSA director Mike Rogers, and Director of National Intelligence James Clapper briefed President-elect Donald Trump on the classified findings of the intelligence community during a meeting at Trump Tower, and then Comey privately briefed Trump about the most salacious allegations in the Steele dossier. [21] [22] On Tuesday, January 4, Trump tweeted that "the briefing was delayed until Friday", even though no briefing had been scheduled for Tuesday, and he insinuated that information was being withheld from him. [23] After being briefed, Trump called the meeting "constructive" but Comey would later claim that Trump's reaction had disturbed him, compelling him to document the conversation in a memo. [24] The next day, Trump issued a statement claiming "Intelligence stated very strongly there was absolutely no evidence that hacking affected the election results," which some have called a contradiction of the report's insistence that it had not undertaken an analysis of the effect of Russia's influence campaign on voters and public opinion. [25] However, the report also indicates that Russian actions were limited to influence and propaganda, not the voting process itself.[ citation needed ]

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan acknowledged meddling but insisted that "We cannot allow partisans to exploit this report in an attempt to delegitimize the president-elect's victory." [26] House Minority Leader and Gang of Eight member Nancy Pelosi called the report "really quite a stunning disclosure" and advocated for further declassification and congressional investigation. [27] The Wall Street Journal accentuated the report's "surprisingly detailed findings" while The Washington Post'' called it a "remarkably blunt assessment." [17] [28]

An op-ed in The Moscow Times accused the report of containing blatant falsities and highlighted the fact that it had intentionally omitted supporting evidence and dedicated a large fraction of its content to scrutinizing RT. [29]

Unclassified Summary of Initial Findings on 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment released by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence SSCI ICA ASSESSMENT FINALJULY3.pdf
Unclassified Summary of Initial Findings on 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment released by the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence

The Senate Intelligence Committee performed an in-depth review of the report and released its initial findings in July 2018. The committee found the report to be "a sound intelligence product." [30] [31]

See also

Related Research Articles

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"Guccifer 2.0" is a persona which claimed to be the hacker(s) who gained unauthorized access to the Democratic National Committee (DNC) computer network and then leaked its documents to the media, the website WikiLeaks, and a conference event. Some of the documents "Guccifer 2.0" released to the media appear to be forgeries cobbled together from public information and previous hacks, which had been mixed with disinformation. According to indictments in February 2018, the persona is operated by Russian military intelligence agency GRU. On July 13, 2018, Special Counsel Robert Mueller indicted 12 GRU agents for allegedly perpetrating the cyberattacks.

DCLeaks was a website that was established in June 2016. It was responsible for publishing leaks of emails belonging to multiple prominent figures in the United States government and military. Cybersecurity research firms determined the site is a front for the Russian cyber-espionage group Fancy Bear. On July 13, 2018, an indictment was made against 12 Russian GRU military officers; it alleged that DCLeaks is part of a Russian military operation to interfere in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

In March 2016, the personal Gmail account of John Podesta, a former White House chief of staff and chair of Hillary Clinton's 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, was compromised in a data breach accomplished via a spear-phishing attack, and some of his emails, many of which were work-related, were hacked. Cybersecurity researchers as well as the United States government attributed responsibility for the breach to the Russian cyber spying group Fancy Bear, allegedly two units of a Russian military intelligence agency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections</span>

The Russian government conducted foreign electoral interference in the 2016 United States elections with the goals of sabotaging the presidential campaign of Hillary Clinton, boosting the presidential campaign of Donald Trump, and increasing political and social discord in the United States. According to the U.S. intelligence community, the operation—code named Project Lakhta—was ordered directly by Russian president Vladimir Putin. The "hacking and disinformation campaign" to damage Clinton and help Trump became the "core of the scandal known as Russiagate". The 448-page Mueller Report, made public in April 2019, examined over 200 contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian officials but concluded that there was insufficient evidence to bring any conspiracy or coordination charges against Trump or his associates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steele dossier</span> Political opposition research report regarding the 2016 US election

The Steele dossier, also known as the Trump–Russia dossier, is a controversial political opposition research report on the 2016 presidential campaign of Donald Trump compiled by counterintelligence specialist Christopher Steele. It was published without permission in 2017 as an unfinished 35-page compilation of "unverified, and potentially unverifiable" memos that were considered by Steele to be "raw intelligence — not established facts, but a starting point for further investigation".

This is a timeline of events related to Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections.

Since Donald Trump was a 2016 candidate for the office of President of the United States, multiple suspicious links between Trump associates and Russian officials were discovered by the FBI, a special counsel investigation, and several United States congressional committees, as part of their investigations into Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. Following intelligence reports about the Russian interference, Trump and some of his campaign members, business partners, administration nominees, and family members were subjected to intense scrutiny to determine whether they had improper dealings during their contacts with Russian officials. Several people connected to the Trump campaign made false statements about those links and obstructed investigations. These investigations resulted in many criminal charges and indictments.

<i>The Plot to Hack America</i> Non-fiction book by Malcolm Nance

The Plot to Hack America: How Putin's Cyberspies and WikiLeaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election is a non-fiction book by Malcolm Nance about the Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. It was published in paperback, audiobook, and e-book formats in 2016 by Skyhorse Publishing. A second edition was also published the same year, and a third edition in 2017. Nance researched Russian intelligence, working as a Russian interpreter and studying KGB history.

This is a timeline of major events in the first half of 2017 related to the investigations into links between associates of Donald Trump and Russian officials and spies that are suspected of being inappropriate, relating to Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. Following the timeline of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections before and after July 2016 up until election day November 8 and the post-election transition, this article begins with Donald Trump and Mike Pence being sworn into office on January 20, 2017, and is followed by the second half of 2017. The investigations continued in the first and second halves of 2018, the first and second halves of 2019, 2020, and 2021.

This is a timeline of events related to Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections, sorted by topics. It also includes events described in investigations into the many suspicious links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies. Those investigations continued in 2017, the first and second halves of 2018, and 2019, largely as parts of the Crossfire Hurricane FBI investigation, the Special Counsel investigation, multiple ongoing criminal investigations by several State Attorneys General, and the investigation resulting in the Inspector General report on FBI and DOJ actions in the 2016 election.

This is a chronology of significant events in 2016 and 2017 related to the many suspicious links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies during the Trump presidential transition and the Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. Following the timeline of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections before and after July 2016, this article begins on November 8 and ends with Donald Trump and Mike Pence being sworn into office on January 20, 2017. The investigations continued in the first and second halves of 2017, the first and second halves of 2018, the first and second halves of 2019, 2020, and 2021.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Conspiracy theories related to the Trump–Ukraine scandal</span> Dispute about Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. elections

Since 2016, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump and his allies have promoted several conspiracy theories related to the Trump–Ukraine scandal. One such theory seeks to blame Ukraine, instead of Russia, for interference in the 2016 United States presidential election. Also among the conspiracy theories are accusations against Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, and several elements of the right-wing Russia investigation origins counter-narrative. American intelligence believes that Russia engaged in a years long campaign to frame Ukraine for the 2016 election interference, that the Kremlin is the prime mover behind promotion of the fictitious alternative narratives, and that these are harmful to the United States. FBI director Christopher A. Wray stated to ABC News that "We have no information that indicates that Ukraine interfered with the 2016 presidential election" and that "as far as the [2020] election itself goes, we think Russia represents the most significant threat."

This is a timeline of major events in second half of 2018 related to the investigations into the many suspicious links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies relating to the Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. It follows the timeline of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections before and after July 2016 up until election day November 8, and the transition, the first and second halves of 2017, and the first half of 2018, but precedes that of the first and second halves of 2019, 2020, and 2021. These events are related to, but distinct from, Russian interference in the 2018 United States elections.

This is a timeline of major events in the second half of 2017 related to the investigations into the many suspicious links between Trump associates and Russian officials and spies relating to the Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. It follows the timeline of Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections before and after July 2016 up until election day November 8, the post-election transition, and the first half of 2017. The investigations continued in the first and second halves of 2018, the first and second halves of 2019, 2020, and 2021.

This is a timeline of events related to Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Senate Intelligence Committee report on Russian interference in the 2016 United States presidential election</span> US report on Russian influence in US election

The Senate Intelligence Committee report on Russian interference in the United States presidential election, officially titled Report of the Select Committee on Intelligence United States Senate on Russian Active Measures Campaigns and Interference in the 2016 U.S. Election, is the official report in five volumes documenting the findings and conclusions of the United States Senate Intelligence Committee concerning the Russian attack efforts against election infrastructure, Russia's use of social media to affect the election, the U.S. government's response to Russian activities, review of the Intelligence Community Assessment, and counterintelligence threats and vulnerabilities. The redacted report is 1,313 pages long. It is divided into five volumes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States election leaks</span> Leaks during the 2016 U.S. elections

The 2016 United States election leaks were a series of publications of more than 150,000 stolen emails and other files during the U.S. presidential election campaigns released by Guccifer 2.0, DCLeaks and WikiLeaks. Computer hackers allegedly affiliated with the Russian military intelligence service (GRU) infiltrated information systems of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), and Clinton campaign officials, notably chairman John Podesta, and leaked some of the stolen materials. Emails from Guccifer 2.0 to journalists suggest a link to DCLeaks, and messages WikiLeaks exchanged with Guccifer 2.0 and DCLeaks suggest both submitted emails to WikiLeaks.

References

  1. ↑ Wolff, Josephine (December 20, 2017). "Should we believe the U.S. government when it blames North Korea for a cyberattack?". Slate.com . Jan. 6, when the Obama administration released the declassified summary of its intelligence report on "Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections," in which it publicly accused Russian President Vladimir Putin
  2. ↑ Priestap, Bill (June 21, 2017). "Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent Elections". fbi.gov . Chairman Burr, Vice Chairman Warner, and members of the committee, thank you for the opportunity to appear before you today to discuss the FBI's contributions to the early 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment, or ICA, entitled Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent Elections.
  3. ↑ Strauss, Daniel; Vogel, Ken; Bennett, Cory; Gass, Nick; Bender, Bryan (June 14, 2016). "Russian government hackers broke into DNC servers, stole Trump oppo". Politico . Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  4. ↑ "WikiLeaks releases thousands of documents about Clinton and internal deliberations". The Washington Post. July 22, 2016. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  5. ↑ Stein, Jeff (October 20, 2016). "What 20,000 pages of hacked WikiLeaks emails teach us about Hillary Clinton". Vox. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  6. ↑ "'Walking controversy' Donald Trump takes focus off Clinton's leaked emails". CBC News. October 22, 2016. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  7. ↑ "Joint Statement from the Department Of Homeland Security and Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Election Security". Department of Homeland Security. October 7, 2016. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  8. ↑ Ackerman, Spencer; Thielman, Sam (October 8, 2016). "US officially accuses Russia of hacking DNC and interfering with election". the Guardian. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  9. ↑ Kopan, Tal; Liptak, Kevin; Sciutto, Jim (December 9, 2016). "Obama orders review of Russian election-related hacking". CNN. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  10. ↑ "Obama orders review of Russian election hacking". TechCrunch. December 9, 2016. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  11. ↑ "Joint DHS, ODNI, FBI Statement on Russian Malicious Cyber Activity". Federal Bureau of Investigation. May 16, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  12. ↑ "Intelligence Report on Russian Hacking". The New York Times. January 6, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  13. ↑ Goldman, Russell (January 7, 2017). "Russia's RT: The Network Implicated in U.S. Election Meddling". The New York Times. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  14. ↑ Thoet, Alison (January 6, 2017). "Read the full, unclassified intelligence report on Russian hacking here". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  15. ↑ Perez, Evan; Prokupecz, Shimon; Brown, Pamela (October 25, 2017). "Mueller's team met with Russia dossier author". CNN . Retrieved November 5, 2017.
  16. ↑ "Intel report describes Putin-directed smear campaign to elect Trump". Ars Technica. January 7, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  17. 1 2 "Declassified report says Putin 'ordered' effort to undermine faith in U.S. election and help Trump". The Washington Post. January 6, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  18. ↑ Shane, Scott (January 7, 2017). "What Intelligence Agencies Concluded About the Russian Attack on the U.S. Election". The New York Times. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  19. ↑ Wang, Christine (January 6, 2017). "Russians aimed to undermine democratic order, paint US as hypocritical". CNBC. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  20. ↑ "Intelligence report says Putin ordered a campaign to help Trump - An assault on democracy". The Economist. January 6, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  21. ↑ Shabad, Rebecca (January 6, 2017). "Will Trump accept U.S. intelligence assessment on Russia hacking after briefing?". CBS News. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  22. ↑ Greenwood, Max (January 12, 2017). "FBI director briefed Trump on dossier: reports". TheHill. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  23. ↑ Schmidt, Michael S.; Davis, Julie Hirschfeld (January 3, 2017). "Trump Says Intelligence Officials Delayed Briefing on Russian Hacking". The New York Times. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  24. ↑ Klein, Ezra (June 7, 2017). "Donald Trump's presidency is an American crisis". Vox. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  25. ↑ "Trump's bogus claim that intelligence report says Russia didn't affect the 2016 election outcome". The Washington Post. January 7, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  26. ↑ Ackerman, Spencer; Thielman, Sam; Smith, David (January 6, 2017). "US intelligence report: Vladimir Putin 'ordered' operation to get Trump elected". the Guardian. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  27. ↑ "Underwhelming Intel Report Shows Need for Congressional Investigation of DNC Hack". The Intercept. January 6, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  28. ↑ Harris, Shane; Paletta, Damian; Lee, Carol E. (January 6, 2017). "Intelligence Agencies Say Russia Ordered 'Influence Campaign' to Aid Donald Trump in Election". WSJ. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  29. ↑ "American Unintelligence on Russia (Op-ed)". The Moscow Times. January 7, 2017. Retrieved March 16, 2018.
  30. ↑ Matishak, Martin (July 3, 2018). "Senate Intel backs assessment of Russian election meddling". Politico . Retrieved July 3, 2018.
  31. ↑ Senate Select Committee on Intelligence (July 3, 2018). "Unclassified Summary of Initial Findings on 2017 Intelligence Community Assessment". Richard Burr U.S. Senator for North Carolina . Archived from the original (PDF) on July 3, 2018. Retrieved July 3, 2018.
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