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The Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seeks to correct and add new information about past North Atlantic hurricanes. It was started around 2000 to update HURDAT, the official hurricane database for the Atlantic Basin, which has become outdated since its creation due to various systematic errors introduced into the database over time. This effort has involved reanalyses of ship observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) as well as reanalyses done by other researchers over the years. It is ongoing as of 2024.
HURDAT contains a number of errors which need to be corrected, such demonstrated by the outliers in the a pressure vs. wind speed graph of datapoints in the database (right). Some of these errors have existed since the database's creation during NASA's Apollo Program, where it was used to help produce probabilities of tropical cyclone-induced winds in critical areas such as Cape Kennedy (now Cape Canaveral). [1]
A significant amount of new data for systems between 1851 and 1886 became available after a major basin-wide reanalysis in 1996, a project led by Jose Fernandez-Paratagas with the collaboration of Henry Diaz. The new data was constructed using old newspaper articles and the hemispheric weather map series. Hurricane histories for individual states had been constructed by the 1990s as well, which proposed new storms and increased the knowledge of tropical cyclones already in the database. Due to this profusion of relevant information not included in HURDAT, and evolving definitions for tropical and subtropical cyclones over the decades, the project was started around 2000 to update the official database. [2] Since then, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set has been utilized to check for older ship reports which were either not utilized nor available to previous researchers. [3]
As early as 1957, it was recognized that an increasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones each season in the Atlantic Basin was at least partially tied to increasing observations and better records. [4] By analyzing the density of ship tracks over time, it has been estimated that between 1900 and 1966, an average of two storms per year are missing from HURDAT. This is mainly due to a lack of satellite imagery and lack of reconnaissance aircraft prior to 1943. An additional storm per year is likely missing prior to the advent of new technologies. These technologies include satellite-derived Quikscat winds, satellite-derived temperature profile information, and Robert Hart's cyclone phase space diagrams, which have led to a recent increase in tropical cyclone detection. Quikscat was launched in 1999, and has been credited with allowing Chantal to be named during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. [5] The last two help determine whether or not a low pressure area is an extratropical cyclone, subtropical cyclone, or tropical cyclone. [6]
Christopher Landsea noted that the efforts to reanalyze the Atlantic hurricane database
will not be able to recover observations of open ocean tropical cyclones that were just never taken. Researchers cannot assume that the Atlantic tropical cyclone database presents a complete depiction of frequency of events before the advent of satellite imagery in the mid-1960s. Moreover, newly available advanced tools and techniques are also contributing toward monitoring about one additional Atlantic tropical cyclone per year since 2002. Thus large, long-term 'trends' in tropical cyclone frequency are primarily manifestations of increased monitoring capabilities and likely not related to any real change in the climate in which they develop. [6]
The IPCC report from 2007 noted on older datasets, "The historical record typically records the central pressure and the maximum winds, but these turn out not to be physically consistent in older records, mainly prior to about the early 1970s. However, attempts at mutual adjustments result in increases in some years and decreases in others, with little effect on overall trends." [7] However, scientist also point out that many storms remain under reported, especially those not making landfall, or staying in the open ocean. [8] The emerging studies of geological proxies in Paleotempestology however can help to bring more trends to light, by for instance assessing sediments proxies from storm surge.
The project ranks the year 1914 as the quietest hurricane season ever for the Atlantic basin with just one tropical storm. The project has currently reanalyzed storms from the period 1886 to 1970, with 1965-1970 period being revised in January 2022, and has extended HURDAT back to 1851. [9] [ clarification needed ] [10] In 2001, data for the years 1851–1885 were added to the official database from the Fernández-Partagás series of publications. Also, a paleotempestology conference was held at the University of South Carolina which proposed to increase the scope of HURDAT from a starting year of 1851 to a start of 1800. The conference also discussed ways of exchanging information for the inclusion of older tropical cyclones, such as via compact disc or a Wikipedia-style website. [11] While the reanalysis has mostly proceeded sequentially, notable exceptions have been made for the reanalysis of some significant tropical cyclones. [9] In 2002, for the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, the reanalysis was completed for the hurricane, which upgraded the cyclone to a Category 5 hurricane. In 2014, a similar reanalysis was completed for Hurricane Camille. [9] In 2022, the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 was also upgraded to a Category 5.
Work by Michael Chenoweth, in collaboration with Cary Mock, increased knowledge of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea for 1750 to 1786. In 2006, Chenoweth completed and published a basin-wide reassessment for old source material from the 1700 to 1855 period by using surface weather observations mainly in the form of ship reports, newspapers, and various diaries and journals from the region around the Caribbean Sea. [12] [13] In 2014, Michael Chenoweth and Dmitry Divine completed and published an Atlantic basin-wide reassessment for the 1851-1898 period as well. [14]
There is agreement within tropical cyclone circles of doing an "Atlantic-style" reanalysis for other ocean basins. Some efforts are underway to start similar reanalyses across the western [15] and eastern north Pacific Ocean, [16] but are likely to take longer to complete. This is due to the need for coordination between the multiple Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres, which have the responsibility for tracking and forecasting tropical cyclones across that ocean. During February 2016, the NHC released the 1959 Mexico hurricane's reanalysis, which was the first system outside the Atlantic basin to be reassessed using methods developed for the Atlantic reanalysis process. [17]
The 1895 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly inactive one, featuring only six known tropical cyclones, although each of them made landfall. Of those six systems, only two intensified a hurricane, while none of those strengthened into a major hurricane. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1889 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and the first half of fall in 1889. In the 1889 Atlantic season there were nine tropical storms and six hurricanes. However, due to scarce technology and the fact that only storms that affected populated land or ships were recorded, the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1864 Atlantic hurricane season was the third consecutive Atlantic hurricane season with no hurricane landfall in the United States – the longest period on record. Of the five known 1864 cyclones, four were first documented in 1995 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz. In the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. The first system was initially observed offshore the Southeastern United States on July 16. It peaked as a Category 1 hurricane on the modern day Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale. Moving rapidly northeastward, the storm was last noted well east of Newfoundland on July 18.
An Atlantic hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone that forms in the Atlantic Ocean primarily between June and November. The terms "hurricane", "typhoon", and "cyclone" can be used interchangeably to describe this weather phenomenon. These storms are continuously rotating around a low pressure center, which causes stormy weather across a large area, which is not limited to just the eye of the storm. They are organized systems of clouds and thunderstorms that originate over tropical or subtropical waters and have closed low-level circulation, and should not be confused with tornadoes, which are just another type of cyclone. They form over low pressure systems. In the North Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific, the term "hurricane" is used, whereas "typhoon" is used in the Western Pacific near Asia. The more general term "cyclone" is used in the rest of the ocean basins, namely the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.
The 1870 Atlantic hurricane season marked the beginning of Father Benito Viñes investigating tropical cyclones, inspired by two hurricanes that devastated Cuba that year; Viñes consequently became a pioneer in studying and forecasting such storms. The season featured 11 known tropical cyclones, 10 of which became a hurricane, while 2 of those intensified into major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1885 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and the first half of fall in 1885. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In 1885 there were two tropical storms and six hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. However, in the absence of modern satellite monitoring and remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1883 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and the first half of fall in 1883. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1883 Atlantic season there was one tropical storm, one Category 1 hurricane, and two major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite monitoring and remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1851 Atlantic hurricane season was the first Atlantic hurricane season to be included in the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record. Six known tropical cyclones occurred during the season, the earliest of which formed on June 25 and the latest of which dissipated on October 19. These dates fall within the range of most Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. None of the cyclones existed simultaneously with another. Three of the six storms only have a single point in their track known.
The Hurricane Databases (HURDAT), managed by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), are two separate databases that contain details on tropical cyclones that have occurred within the Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1851 and 1949 respectively.
The 1881 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and early fall of 1881. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1881 Atlantic season there were three tropical storms and four hurricanes, none of which became major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1881 cyclones, Hurricane Three and Tropical Storm Seven were both first documented in 1996 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz. They also proposed changes to the known tracks of Hurricane Four and Hurricane Five.
The 1882 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and early fall of 1882. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1882 Atlantic season there were two tropical storms, two Category 1 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1882 cyclones, Hurricane One and Hurricane Five were both first documented in 1996 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz, while Tropical Storm Three was first recognised in 1997. Partagas and Diaz also proposed large changes to the known track of Hurricane Two while further re-analysis, in 2000, led to the peak strengths of both Hurricane Two and Hurricane Six being increased. In 2011 the third storm of the year was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm.
The 1879 Atlantic hurricane season ran from the summer to near the end of autumn in 1879. In 1879 there were two tropical storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1879 cyclones, Hurricane One were first documented in 1995 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz. They also proposed large changes to the known tracks of Hurricanes Two, Three, Seven and Eight. Later one storm was deemed not to be a tropical cyclone at all and was dropped from the database.
The 1876 Atlantic hurricane season featured the first hurricane landfall in North Carolina since 1861. Overall, the season was relatively quiet, with five tropical storms developing. Four of these became a hurricane, of which two intensified into major hurricanes. However, due to the absence of remote-sensing satellite and other technology, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded; therefore, the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1875 Atlantic hurricane season featured three landfalling tropical cyclones. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. There were five recorded hurricanes and one major hurricane – Category 3 or higher on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson scale.
The 1873 Atlantic hurricane season was quiet, featuring only five known tropical cyclones, but all of them made landfall, causing significant impacts in some areas of the basin. Of these five systems, three intensified into a hurricane, while two of those attained major hurricane status. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.
The 1872 Atlantic hurricane season included a storm whose track became one of the first to be published by the United States Army Signal Service, a predecessor of the National Weather Service. The season was quiet, with only five documented tropical cyclones, of which four attained hurricane status. None of them intensified into a major hurricane. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated.
The 1863 Atlantic hurricane season featured five landfalling tropical cyclones. In the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. There were seven recorded hurricanes and no major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the modern day Saffir–Simpson scale. Of the known 1863 cyclones, seven were first documented in 1995 by José Fernández-Partagás and Henry Diaz, while the ninth tropical storm was first documented in 2003. These changes were largely adopted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic hurricane reanalysis in their updates to the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT), with some adjustments.
The 1862 Atlantic hurricane season featured six tropical cyclones, with only one making landfall. The season had three tropical storms and three hurricanes, none of which became major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz initially documented five tropical cyclones in a 1995 report on this season. A sixth system was added by Michael Chenoweth in 2003 from records taken in Colón, Panama.
The 1857 Atlantic hurricane season was the earliest season documented by HURDAT – the official Atlantic hurricane database – to feature no major hurricanes. A total of four tropical cyclones were observed during the season, three of which strengthened into hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea are known, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. Additionally, documentation by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz included a fifth tropical cyclone near Port Isabel, Texas; this storm has since been removed from HURDAT as it was likely the same system as the fourth tropical cyclone.
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