Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project

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Reanalyzed 1911 Atlantic hurricane season 1911 Atlantic Hurricane Season.jpg
Reanalyzed 1911 Atlantic hurricane season

The Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration seeks to correct and add new information about past North Atlantic hurricanes. It was started around 2000 to update HURDAT, the official hurricane database for the Atlantic Basin, which has become outdated since its creation due to various systematic errors introduced into the database over time. This effort has involved reanalyses of ship observations from the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) as well as reanalyses done by other researchers over the years. It has been ongoing as of 2016.

Contents

Inaccuracies and omissions in existing data

Arrows point to storms with unlikely wind/pressure relationships in HURDAT Invalidpreswindrelationship.png
Arrows point to storms with unlikely wind/pressure relationships in HURDAT

Errors

HURDAT contains a number of errors which need to be corrected, such demonstrated by the outliers in the a pressure vs. wind speed graph of datapoints in the database (right). Some of these errors have existed since the database's creation during NASA's Apollo Program, where it was used to help produce probabilities of tropical cyclone-induced winds in critical areas such as Cape Kennedy (now Cape Canaveral). [1]

New information

A significant amount of new data for systems between 1851 and 1886 became available after a major basin-wide reanalysis in 1996, a project led by Jose Fernandez-Paratagas with the collaboration of Henry Diaz. The new data was constructed using old newspaper articles and the hemispheric weather map series. Hurricane histories for individual states had been constructed by the 1990s as well, which proposed new storms and increased the knowledge of tropical cyclones already in the database. Due to this profusion of relevant information not included in HURDAT, and evolving definitions for tropical and subtropical cyclones over the decades, the project was started around 2000 to update the official database. [2] Since then, the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set has been utilized to check for older ship reports which were either not utilized nor available to previous researchers. [3]

Incompleteness of dataset

As early as 1957, it was recognized that an increasing trend in the number of tropical cyclones each season in the Atlantic Basin was at least partially tied to increasing observations and better records. [4] By analyzing the density of ship tracks over time, it has been estimated that between 1900 and 1966, an average of two storms per year are missing from HURDAT. This is mainly due to a lack of satellite imagery and lack of reconnaissance aircraft prior to 1943. An additional storm per year is likely missing prior to the advent of new technologies. These technologies include satellite-derived Quikscat winds, satellite-derived temperature profile information, and Robert Hart's cyclone phase space diagrams, which have led to a recent increase in tropical cyclone detection. Quikscat was launched in 1999, and has been credited with allowing Chantal to be named during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. [5] The last two help determine whether or not a low pressure area is an extratropical cyclone, subtropical cyclone, or tropical cyclone. [6]

Christopher Landsea noted that the efforts to reanalyze the Atlantic hurricane database

will not be able to recover observations of open ocean tropical cyclones that were just never taken. Researchers cannot assume that the Atlantic tropical cyclone database presents a complete depiction of frequency of events before the advent of satellite imagery in the mid-1960s. Moreover, newly available advanced tools and techniques are also contributing toward monitoring about one additional Atlantic tropical cyclone per year since 2002. Thus large, long-term 'trends' in tropical cyclone frequency are primarily manifestations of increased monitoring capabilities and likely not related to any real change in the climate in which they develop. [6]

The IPCC report from 2007 noted on older datasets, "The historical record typically records the central pressure and the maximum winds, but these turn out not to be physically consistent in older records, mainly prior to about the early 1970s. However, attempts at mutual adjustments result in increases in some years and decreases in others, with little effect on overall trends." [7] However, scientist also point out that many storms remain under reported, especially those not making landfall, or staying in the open ocean. [8] The emerging studies of geological proxies in Paleotempestology however can help to bring more trends to light, by for instance assessing sediments proxies from storm surge.

Progress

Hurricane Andrew over South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane HurricaneAndrew.jpg
Hurricane Andrew over South Florida as a Category 5 hurricane

The project ranks the year 1914 as the quietest hurricane season ever for the Atlantic basin with just one tropical storm. The project has currently reanalyzed storms from the period 1886 to 1970, with 1965-1970 period being revised in January 2022, and has extended HURDAT back to 1851. [9] [ clarification needed ] [10] In 2001, data for the years 18511885 were added to the official database from the Fernández-Partagás series of publications. Also, a paleotempestology conference was held at the University of South Carolina which proposed to increase the scope of HURDAT from a starting year of 1851 to a start of 1800. The conference also discussed ways of exchanging information for the inclusion of older tropical cyclones, such as via compact disc or a Wikipedia-style website. [11] While the reanalysis has mostly proceeded sequentially, notable exceptions have been made for the reanalysis of some significant tropical cyclones. [9] In 2002, for the tenth anniversary of Hurricane Andrew, the reanalysis was completed for the hurricane, which upgraded the cyclone to a Category 5 hurricane. In 2014, a similar reanalysis was completed for Hurricane Camille. [9] In 2022, the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 was also upgraded to a Category 5.

Work by Michael Chenoweth, in collaboration with Cary Mock, increased knowledge of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Sea for 1750 to 1786. In 2006, Chenoweth completed and published a basin-wide reassessment for old source material from the 1700 to 1855 period by using surface weather observations mainly in the form of ship reports, newspapers, and various diaries and journals from the region around the Caribbean Sea. [12] [13] In 2014, Michael Chenoweth and Dmitry Divine completed and published an Atlantic basin-wide reassessment for the 1851-1898 period as well. [14]

Future efforts in other basins

Typhoon Freda, in Joint Typhoon Warning Center database as 100 knots (190 km/h) while Dvorak estimates were 115 knots (213 km/h) Freda Mar 15 1981 2051Z.png
Typhoon Freda, in Joint Typhoon Warning Center database as 100 knots (190 km/h) while Dvorak estimates were 115 knots (213 km/h)

There is agreement within tropical cyclone circles of doing an "Atlantic-style" reanalysis for other ocean basins. Some efforts are underway to start similar reanalyses across the western [15] and eastern north Pacific Ocean, [16] but are likely to take longer to complete. This is due to the need for coordination between the multiple Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres, which have the responsibility for tracking and forecasting tropical cyclones across that ocean. During February 2016, the NHC released the 1959 Mexico hurricane's reanalysis, which was the first system outside the Atlantic basin to be reassessed using methods developed for the Atlantic reanalysis process. [17]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1914 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1914 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active Atlantic hurricane season on record, with only one known tropical storm. Although hurricane season typically encompasses a much larger time-span, actual activity was confined to the middle of September. The only tropical cyclone of the year developed in the region of The Bahamas on September 15 and drifted northwestward, moving inland over Florida and Georgia. Thorough warnings before the storm prevented any major damage. The 1914 season is one of only two that did not produce any hurricanes. Due to the lack of modern technology such as satellite imagery, information is often sparse, and an additional tropical depression may have existed in late October.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1907 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1907 Atlantic hurricane season was a very inactive hurricane season. Only five tropical storms formed, and none of them reaching hurricane strength. This season is one of only two that did not produce any hurricanes. Of the season's storms, three made landfall, all of them on the Gulf Coast of the United States. The first storm of the season formed on June 24, while the final dissipated on November 12. Damage from the storms was minimal, and no deaths were reported. Due to the lack of modern technology, including satellite imagery, information is often sparse, and four additional systems could have formed during the season. A documentation for four possible storms during the season exists, although it has not been proven that these systems were fully tropical.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1880 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1880 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and fall of 1880. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1880 Atlantic season there were two tropical storms, seven hurricanes, and two major hurricanes (Category 3+). However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1880 cyclones, Hurricane Six was first documented in 1995 by José Fernández-Partagás and Henry Díaz. They also proposed large changes to the known tracks of several other storms for this year and 're-instated' Hurricane Ten to the database. A preliminary reanalysis by Michael Chenoweth, published in 2014, found thirteen storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atlantic hurricane season</span> Tropical cyclone season

The Atlantic hurricane season is the period in a year, from June 1 through November 30, when tropical or subtropical cyclones are most likely to form in the North Atlantic Ocean. These dates, adopted by convention, encompass the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the basin. Even so, subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, and often does occur.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pacific hurricane</span> Mature tropical cyclone that develops within the eastern and central Pacific Ocean

A Pacific hurricane is a tropical cyclone that develops within the northeastern and central Pacific Ocean to the east of 180°W, north of the equator. For tropical cyclone warning purposes, the northern Pacific is divided into three regions: the eastern, central, and western, while the southern Pacific is divided into 2 sections, the Australian region and the southern Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. Identical phenomena in the western north Pacific are called typhoons. This separation between the two basins has a practical convenience, however, as tropical cyclones rarely form in the central north Pacific due to high vertical wind shear, and few cross the dateline.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atlantic hurricane</span> Tropical cyclone that forms in the Atlantic Ocean

An Atlantic hurricane is a type of tropical cyclone that forms in the Atlantic Ocean primarily between June and November. The terms "hurricane", "typhoon", and "cyclone" can be used interchangeably to describe this weather phenomenon. These storms are rotating, organized systems of clouds and thunderstorms that originate over tropical or subtropical waters and have closed low-level circulation, not to be confused with tornadoes. They form over low pressure systems. In the North Atlantic, central North Pacific, and eastern North Pacific, the term "hurricane" is mainly used, whereas "typhoon" is more commonly used for storms originating in the western North Pacific. The term "cyclone" is used in the South Pacific and Indian Ocean.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone observation</span>

Tropical cyclone observation has been carried out over the past couple of centuries in various ways. The passage of typhoons, hurricanes, as well as other tropical cyclones have been detected by word of mouth from sailors recently coming to port or by radio transmissions from ships at sea, from sediment deposits in near shore estuaries, to the wiping out of cities near the coastline. Since World War II, advances in technology have included using planes to survey the ocean basins, satellites to monitor the world's oceans from outer space using a variety of methods, radars to monitor their progress near the coastline, and recently the introduction of unmanned aerial vehicles to penetrate storms. Recent studies have concentrated on studying hurricane impacts lying within rocks or near shore lake sediments, which are branches of a new field known as paleotempestology. This article details the various methods employed in the creation of the hurricane database, as well as reconstructions necessary for reanalysis of past storms used in projects such as the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1883 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1883 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and the first half of fall in 1883. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1883 Atlantic season there was one tropical storm, one Category 1 hurricane, and two major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite monitoring and remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1851 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1851 Atlantic hurricane season was the first Atlantic hurricane season to be included in the official Atlantic tropical cyclone record. Six known tropical cyclones occurred during the season, the earliest of which formed on June 25 and the latest of which dissipated on October 19. These dates fall within the range of most Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. None of the cyclones existed simultaneously with another. Three of the six storms only have a single point in their track known.

The Hurricane Databases (HURDAT), managed by the National Hurricane Center, are two separate databases that contain details on tropical cyclones, that have occurred within the Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1851 and 1949 respectively.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1881 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1881 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and early fall of 1881. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1881 Atlantic season there were three tropical storms and four hurricanes, none of which became major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1881 cyclones, Hurricane Three and Tropical Storm Seven were both first documented in 1996 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz. They also proposed changes to the known tracks of Hurricane Four and Hurricane Five.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1882 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1882 Atlantic hurricane season ran through the summer and early fall of 1882. This is the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. In the 1882 Atlantic season there were two tropical storms, two Category 1 hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1882 cyclones, Hurricane One and Hurricane Five were both first documented in 1996 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz, while Tropical Storm Three was first recognised in 1997. Partagas and Diaz also proposed large changes to the known track of Hurricane Two while further re-analysis, in 2000, led to the peak strengths of both Hurricane Two and Hurricane Six being increased. In 2011 the third storm of the year was downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1875 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1875 Atlantic hurricane season featured three landfalling tropical cyclones. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. There were five recorded hurricanes and one major hurricane – Category 3 or higher on the modern-day Saffir–Simpson scale.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1873 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1873 Atlantic hurricane season was quiet, with only two tropical storms and three hurricanes, two of which were major hurricanes, being recorded. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known cyclones, large alterations were made to the tracks of Hurricane Two and Hurricane Five in 1995 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz, who also proposed smaller changes to the known track of Hurricane Three. All of the tropical cyclones, other than Hurricane Two, made landfall in Florida.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1872 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1872 Atlantic hurricane season was quiet, lasting from mid-summer through mid-autumn. There were five tropical cyclones, of which four attained hurricane status. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 and zero to four per year between 1886 and 1910 has been estimated. Of the known 1872 cyclones, significant changes were made to the tracks of Hurricane Two and Hurricane Four in 1995 by Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz, who also proposed smaller changes to the known track of Hurricane Three. Further analysis, in 2003, revised the track of Hurricane Five.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1863 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1863 Atlantic hurricane season featured five landfalling tropical cyclones. In the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. There were seven recorded hurricanes and no major hurricanes, which are Category 3 or higher on the modern day Saffir–Simpson scale. Of the known 1863 cyclones, seven were first documented in 1995 by José Fernández-Partagás and Henry Diaz, while the ninth tropical storm was first documented in 2003. These changes were largely adopted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Atlantic hurricane reanalysis in their updates to the Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT), with some adjustments.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1862 Atlantic hurricane season</span> Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean

The 1862 Atlantic hurricane season featured six tropical cyclones, with only one making landfall. The season had three tropical storms and three hurricanes, none of which became major hurricanes. However, in the absence of modern satellite and other remote-sensing technologies, only storms that affected populated land areas or encountered ships at sea were recorded, so the actual total could be higher. An undercount bias of zero to six tropical cyclones per year between 1851 and 1885 has been estimated. Jose Fernandez-Partagas and Henry Diaz initially documented five tropical cyclones in a 1995 report on this season. A sixth system was added by Michael Chenoweth in 2003 from records taken in Colón, Panama.

References

  1. Landsea, Chris; Anderson, Craig; Charles, Noel; Clark, Gil; Dodge, Peter; Dunion, Jason; Fernandez-Partagas, Jose; Franklin, James; Hungerford, Paul; Neumann, Charlie; Zimmer, Mark; National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee (2004-04-02). "The Atlantic Hurricane Database Re-analysis Project: Results for 1851 to 1910 and 1992's Hurricane Andrew" (Powerpoint Presentation). NOAA/Hurricane Research Division. Archived from the original on 11 February 2006. Retrieved 2006-03-09.
  2. "Atlantic Hurricane Re-analysis Project". NOAA/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory. 2004-12-08. Archived from the original on 6 February 2006. Retrieved 2006-03-09.
  3. Christopher W. Landsea; David A. Glenn; William Bredmeyer; Michael Chenoweth; Ryan Ellis; John Gamanche; Lyle Hufstetler; Cary Mock; Ramon Perez; Ricardo Prieto; Jorge Sánchez-Sesma; Donna Thomas & Lenworth Woolcock. "A Reanalysis of the 1911–20 Atlantic Hurricane Database" (PDF): 2140.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  4. Daily Gleaner. Bad News for 'Hurricane Hunters'. [ permanent dead link ] Retrieved on 2008-06-06.
  5. Eric Berger. Decisions to name storms draw concern. Archived 2008-06-07 at the Wayback Machine Retrieved on 2008-04-05.
  6. 1 2 Landsea, C. W. (2007). "Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones back to 1900" (PDF). Eos. 88 (18): 197–202. Bibcode:2007EOSTr..88..197L. doi:10.1029/2007EO180001. S2CID   128942012.
  7. "Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis". IPCC. 2007. Archived from the original on 2018-11-02. Retrieved 2017-10-08.
  8. "Hurricane period ravaging Atlantic is the most active on record". Global News. October 5, 2017.
  9. 1 2 3 National Hurricane Center; Hurricane Research Division; Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (March 2014). "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT) Meta Data". United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Office of Oceanic & Atmospheric Research. Retrieved 2015-03-14.
  10. "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved December 14, 2023.PD-icon.svg This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain .
  11. "Preliminary Summary of WORKSHOP on ATLANTIC BASIN PALEOHURRICANE RECONSTRUCTIONS from HIGH RESOLUTION RECORDS". NOAA Paleoclimatology Program. Retrieved 2006-03-09.
  12. Chenoweth, Michael (2005-07-19) [original document 2004-08-06]. "A Reassessment of Historical Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Activity, 1700-1855" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-01-22.
  13. Landsea, Chris (June 2006). "[The Atlantic Hurricane Database] Re-Analysis Project". NOAA/Hurricane Research Division. Archived from the original on 16 March 2006. Retrieved 2006-03-09.
  14. Michael Chenoweth. A New Compilation of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, 1851–98. December 2014. Journal of Climate. Volume 27, issue 23. American Meteorological Society
  15. Knaff, John A.; Charles R. Sampson (2006-04-25). "Reanalysis of West Pacific Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity 1966-1987 (Abstract of presentation)" (PDF). 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. American Meteorological Society . Retrieved 2006-03-09.
  16. Kimberlain, Todd B (April 16, 2012). Re-analysis of the Eastern North Pacific HURDAT. 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Retrieved March 6, 2015.
  17. "Re-analysis of the 1959 Manzanillo Mexico Hurricane Landfall intensity changed from category 5 to category 4" (PDF) (Press release). United States National Hurricane Center. February 4, 2016. Archived (PDF) from the original on February 5, 2016. Retrieved February 4, 2016.

Sources