Bavarian state election, 2018

Bavarian state election, 2018

←  2013 14 October 2018
205 seats in the Landtag (including 25 overhang and leveling seats) 103 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	72.3%
First party Second party Third party   Leader Markus Söder Katharina Schulze Ludwig Hartmann Hubert Aiwanger Party CSU Green FW Last election 101 seats, 47.7% 18 seats, 8.6% 19 seats, 9.0% Seats before 101 17 17 Seats won 85 38 27 Seat change 16 20 8 Popular vote 5,047,006 2,377,766 1,571,288 Percentage 37.2% 17.6% 11.6% Swing 10.5pp 9.0pp 2.6pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Martin Sichert Natascha Kohnen Martin Hagen Party AfD SPD FDP Last election did not contest 42 seats, 20.6% 0 seats, 3.3% Seats before - 42 0 Seats won 22 22 11 Seat change 22 20 11 Popular vote 1,383,866 1,317,942 687,842 Percentage 10.2% 9.7% 5.1% Swing 10.2pp 10.9pp 1.8pp
Minister President before election Markus Söder CSU Elected Minister President Markus Söder CSU

The 2018 Bavarian state election took place on 14 October 2018 to elect the 180 members of the 18th Landtag of Bavaria. ^[1]

The parties of the CDU/CSU-SPD federal-government grand coalition suffered heavy losses. The CSU and the SPD both lost more than 10 percentage points compared to the 2013 election, finishing at 37.2% (CSU) and 9.7% (SPD) respectively. AfD, which ran in Bavaria for the first time, made double-digit gains and won 10.2% of the total vote. The Greens gained 8.9pp and hence finished as the second strongest party, at 17.5%, replacing the SPD. The FDP, which failed to enter the Landtag in 2013, barely made it with 5.1% (+1.8pp) as the smallest party in the new legislature; the Bavarian Free Voters gained 2.6pp and finished third, slightly ahead of AfD at 11.6%. All other parties failed to cross the 5% threshold required to make it into the Bavarian Landtag.

Turnout increased by 8.7%, from 63.6% in the last election in 2013 to 72.3% in 2018. ^[2]

The election in Bavaria was overshadowed by federal politics and the condition of the German coalition government after two government crises, the "asylum quarrel" in June/July, and the crisis around Hans-Georg Maaßen in September, in both of which CSU chief Horst Seehofer played a leading role. Four days before the election, SPD leader Andrea Nahles had criticised German Chancellor Angela Merkel and accused her of a "lack of leadership". ^[3]

Election date and preparation deadlines

According to the Bavarian Constitution, the election must be held on a Sunday "at the earliest 59 months, at the latest 62 months" after the preceding state elections ^[4] which took place on 15 September 2013. This would theoretically allow an election date between 19 August and 11 November 2018, but in practice the elections since 1978 have always taken place between mid-September and mid-October. ^[5] The Bavarian state government proposed 14 October 2018 as the election date on 9 January 2018 ^[6] and officially set it on 20 February after hearing the parties to the state parliament. ^[7]

The deadline for determining the population figures, which are decisive for the distribution of the 180 Landtag mandates among the seven Bavarian administrative districts and a possible new division of the constituencies, was 15 June 2016 (33 months after the election of the previous Landtag). ^[8] On this basis, the Bavarian Ministry of the Interior had to submit a constituency report to the Landtag until 36 months after the election ^[9] This was done on 6 September 2016.

Delegates to the internal constituency meetings could be appointed at the earliest 43 months after the preceding election, i.e. since 16 April 2017. The actual constituency candidates had been eligible since 16 July 2017. ^{[10] [11]} The parties and other organised electoral groups which had not been represented continuously in the Bavarian Land Parliament or in the German Bundestag since their last election on the basis of their own election proposals (CDU, CSU, SPD, Free Voters of Bavaria, Alliance 90/The Greens, FDP, Die Linke, AfD) had to notify their intention to participate to the State Election Commissioner by the 90th day before the election, i.e. by 16 July 2018 at the latest. ^[12] The actual election proposals and any necessary signatures had to be submitted by 2 August 2018. ^[13]

Electoral system

Party representation is not apportioned statewide, the distribution of seats takes place separately within the seven administrative districts (Regierungsbezirke), which are referred to in the electoral law as constituencies. The constituencies are divided into districts in which one member is directly elected. The number of single member districts is about half the number of seats in the constituency. In contrast to the Bundestag election law, the distribution of seats by proportional representation uses the single member district votes (first votes) into account, as well as the votes for candidates on the party lists (second votes). Only Parties and groups of voters who obtain at least 5% of the total votes (sum of first and second votes) in Bavaria participate in the distribution of seats.

Boundary changes

Constituencies for the Bavarian state election, 2018.

In the statutory constituency report of September 2016, the state government stated that the numerical distribution of the 180 state parliament seats among the constituencies would have to be changed due to changes in the number of inhabitants. It was recommended that a seat previously to be awarded in the Lower Franconia constituency be allocated to the Upper Bavaria constituency.

Within Upper Bavaria, the additional seat was used to reshape the single member districts in the state capital of Munich, as two of them — Giesing and Milbertshofen ^[14]  — exceeded the average population by more than 15 percent. Upper Bavaria now has 31 single member districts for the 2018 elections, nine of which are accounted for by the state capital.

Seats and single member districts are distributed as follows: ^[15]

Constituency	Seats	Single member districts
Upper Bavaria	61	31
Lower Bavaria	18	9
Upper Palatinate	16	8
Upper Franconia	16	8
Middle Franconia	24	12
Lower Franconia	19	10
Swabia	26	13
Total	180	91

Starting position

Anti-Söder-election poster in Großnöbach (Fahrenzhausen) in the Freising district.

Since the state elections in Bavaria in 2013, the CSU has again had the absolute majority of seats, as it did from 1962 to 2008. In December 2017, however, Minister President of Bavaria Horst Seehofer (CSU) finally declared his renunciation of the top candidate in the state elections in Bavaria 2018, partly due to the poor performance of the CSU in the 2017 Bundestag elections. In March 2018, he also resigned from his office as Minister President of Bavaria before the end of the parliamentary term. The former Bavarian Finance Minister Markus Söder was elected as the new top CSU candidate and later also as Minister President of Bavaria in the state parliament.

Campaign

CSU

In 2018, the CSU Markus Söder's government enacted the Kreuzpflicht , an obligation to display crosses at the entrance of public buildings. Söder has stated that the crosses are not to be seen as Christian symbols, but as symbols of Bavarian cultural identity. ^[16]

Some observers have described the Kreuzpflicht as a measure to appeal to voters deserting the Christian democratic conservative CSU for the right-wing nationalist AfD party. Also the CSU interior minister Horst Seehofer has taken a harder line on immigration. ^[17]

Major political parties

Ballot paper for the second vote in constituency 104 of the Upper Bavaria constituency.

• Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU)
• Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)
• Free voters (Freie Wähler)
• Alliance 90 / The Greens (Grüne)
• Free Democratic Party (FDP)
• The Left (Die Linke)
• Alternative for Germany (AfD)

Bavaria
This article is part of a series on the politics and government of Bavaria
Constitution Constitution
Executive Minister-President Markus Söder Cabinet
Legislature Landtag President Ilse Aigner
Divisions Administrative regions (Regierungsbezirke) Landkreise/kreisfreie cities Gemeinden (municipalities)
Elections Legislative: 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018
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Leaders' debate

A Leaders' debate between Minister President Markus Söder (CSU) and Ludwig Hartmann (Alliance 90/The Greens) took place on 26 September 2018. The Bayerischer Rundfunk justified the party selection with the result of the Bayerntrend of September 12, 2018, according to which CSU and Greens can hope for the most votes in the election. SPD Secretary-General Uli Grötsch described this decision as "completely absurd". ^[18] A programme with representatives of the other five parties, whose survey results were above or close to the five percent hurdle, followed on 28 September 2018: Natascha Kohnen (SPD), Hubert Aiwanger (Free Voters), Martin Sichert (AfD), Martin Hagen (FDP) and Ates Gürpinar (The Left). The first programme was moderated by BR editor-in-chief Christian Nitsche, the second by Ursula Heller.

Opinion polling

Polling firm	Fieldwork date	Sample size	CSU	SPD	FW	Grüne	FDP	Linke	AfD	Others	Lead
2018 state election	14 Oct 2018	–	37.2	9.7	11.6	17.6	5.1	3.2	10.2	5.4	19.7
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	10–11 Oct 2018	1,075	34	12	10	19	5.5	4	10	5.5	15
Civey	6–10 Oct 2018	5,063	32.9	11.0	9.8	18.5	5.9	3.9	12.8	5.2	14.4
INSA	2–8 Oct 2018	1,707	33	10	11	18	5.5	4.5	14	4	15
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	1–4 Oct 2018	1,122	35	12	10	18	5.5	4.5	10	5	17
Infratest dimap	1–2 Oct 2018	1,002	33	11	11	18	6	4.5	10	6.5	15
GMS	20–26 Sep 2018	1,004	35	13	10	16	5	4	12	5	19
INSA	21–25 Sep 2018	1,064	34	11	10	17	6	4	14	4	17
Civey	19–23 Sep 2018	5,061	36.0	12.0	8.6	17.9	5.0	3.3	13.2	4.0	18.1
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen	17–19 Sep 2018	1,114	35	13	11	18	5	4	10	4	17
Infratest dimap	5–10 Sep 2018	1,000	35	11	11	17	5	5	11	5	18
GMS	4–10 Sep 2018	1,006	36	12	7	16	6	4	14	5	20
Civey	30 Aug–9 Sep 2018	5,046	35.8	12.1	8.1	16.5	5.8	2.7	13.7	5.3	19.3
INSA	23–27 Aug 2018	1,033	36	13	8	15	6	3	14	5	21
Civey	15–26 Aug 2018	5,049	37.8	11.8	8.1	15.1	6.1	2.5	13.5	5.1	22.7
Civey	30 Jul–13 Aug 2018	5,047	38.1	12.3	7.3	15.0	5.3	2.7	15.2	4.1	22.9
Forsa	25 Jul–9 Aug 2018	1,105	37	12	8	17	5	4	13	4	20
GMS	25–31 Jul 2018	1,004	39	12	8	14	6	3	13	5	25
Infratest dimap	11–16 Jul 2018	1,003	38	13	9	16	5	4	12	3	22
GMS	5–11 Jul 2018	1,007	39	12	7	14	6	3	14	5	25
Forsa	4–6 Jul 2018	1,003	38	12	8	15	6	3	14	4	23
Civey	23 Jun–5 Jul 2018	5,093	42.5	13.7	6.0	13.2	5.2	2.8	13.1	3.5	28.8
INSA	25–27 Jun 2018	1,231	41	13	6	13	5	3	14	5	27
Forsa	21–22 Jun 2018	1,033	40	13	8	14	5	3	13	4	26
Civey	19 May–7 Jun 2018	5,066	41.1	13.4	7.0	12.6	4.8	3.5	13.5	4.1	27.6
GMS	11–16 May 2018	1,005	42	13	7	12	5	2	13	6	29
Civey	23 Apr–11 May 2018	5,082	42.1	13.7	6.6	13.5	5.1	2.9	12.0	4.1	28.4
Infratest dimap	22–27 Apr 2018	1,002	41	12	7	14	6	3	12	5	27
GMS	20–26 Apr 2018	1,002	44	14	6	11	5	3	12	5	30
INSA	17–20 Apr 2018	1,005	42	13	6	13	7	3	13	3	29
Civey	19 Mar–5 Apr 2018	5,048	44.5	14.8	6.5	11.3	4.2	2.8	11.9	4.0	29.7
GMS	16–21 Mar 2018	1,004	43	15	6	11	6	3	12	4	28
Civey	2–15 Mar 2018	5,004	41.4	14.2	8.4	12.0	4.6	3.0	12.1	4.3	27.2
Civey	12–26 Feb 2018	5,040	39.4	13.4	8.6	12.2	5.3	3.5	12.3	5.3	26.0
Forsa	8–22 Feb 2018	1,027	42	14	7	14	6	3	10	4	28
GMS	1–9 Feb 2018	1,510	40	15	6	11	6	3	12	7	25
Civey	6–16 Jan 2018	5,040	39.9	14.8	7.6	11.4	5.8	3.4	13.1	4.0	21.1
Infratest dimap	3–8 Jan 2018	1,002	40	16	7	14	5	3	10	5	24
GMS	27 Dec 2017–1 Jan 2018	1,007	39	15	7	10	7	3	12	7	24
INSA	12–13 Dec 2017	1,003	40	15	7	12	7	4	12	3	25
Civey	24 Nov–13 Dec 2017	5,019	36.7	16.0	8.3	12.1	7.1	2.9	12.9	4.0	20.7
GMS	27–29 Nov 2017	1,006	37	15	7	10	8	3	14	6	22
Civey	16 Oct–16 Nov 2017	5,034	38.8	14.9	6.5	10.8	8.0	3.6	13.5	3.9	23.9
Forsa	6–9 Nov 2017	1,017	38	17	7	11	9	4	11	3	21
INSA	2–3 Nov 2017	1,033	37	17	8	10	8	4	13	3	20
GMS	13–18 Oct 2017	1,004	41	15	6	11	7	3	13	4	26
Civey	25 Sep–13 Oct 2017	5,043	40.7	14.1	7.0	12.4	7.1	3.4	11.3	4.0	26.6
2017 federal election	24 Sep 2017	–	38.8	15.3	2.7	9.8	10.2	6.1	12.4	4.8	23.5
Infratest dimap	4–9 Jan 2017	1,001	45	14	7	13	4	3	10	4	31
GMS	27 Oct–2 Nov 2016	1,005	44	18	6	10	6	2	9	5	26
GMS	8–12 Oct 2016	1,013	45	19	6	10	5	2	9	4	26
GMS	9–14 Sep 2016	1,015	45	18	5	12	5	2	9	4	27
Forsa	4–15 Jul 2016	1,008	43	16	6	14	4	3	8	6	27
Infratest dimap	11–14 Jul 2016	1,000	45	17	5	13	4	–	9	7	28
GMS	8–13 Jul 2016	1,015	47	17	6	11	5	2	7	5	30
INSA	17 May–8 Jun 2016	1,698	47.5	17.5	4.5	11.5	3.5	3.5	7	5	30
Forsa	23 May–3 Jun 2016	1,010	40	16	6	14	4	3	10	7	24
GMS	27 May–1 Jun 2016	1,021	48	17	6	10	5	2	8	4	31
GMS	15–19 Apr 2016	1,018	48	16	6	10	5	2	9	4	32
GMS	14–16 Mar 2016	1,015	48	16	5	11	5	2	9	4	32
GMS	12–17 Feb 2016	1,010	46	17	5	11	4	2	9	6	29
Infratest dimap	7–11 Jan 2016	1,000	47	16	5	12	3	3	8	6	31
GMS	28 Dec 2015–3 Jan 2016	1,019	45	19	6	10	4	3	7	6	26
GMS	12–18 Nov 2015	1,016	46	18	5	11	4	3	8	5	28
GMS	1–7 Oct 2015	1,019	46	18	6	12	6	–	5	7	28
Forsa	23 Sep–2 Oct 2015	1,007	43	19	5	11	4	3	6	9	24
GMS	10–16 Sep 2015	1,007	49	20	6	10	5	–	2	8	29
GMS	16–22 Jul 2015	1,011	47	20	6	10	5	–	2	10	27
GMS	18–24 Jun 2015	1,012	48	19	7	9	5	2	4	6	29
INSA	5–15 Jun 2015	651	46	20	8	8	4	3	4	7	26
GMS	7–13 May 2015	1,008	48	18	7	10	4	–	5	8	30
GMS	9–15 Apr 2015	1,016	48	19	7	10	4	2	4	6	29
Forsa	19–31 Mar 2015	1,266	47	19	7	11	3	2	4	7	28
Infratest dimap	8–12 Jan 2015	1,004	46	19	10	9	3	3	4	6	27
GMS	Nov 2014	2,000	49	18	7	9	2	2	5	8	31
pollytix	13–23 Nov 2014	1,700	47	20	8	10	2	3	6	4	27
Emnid	1 Oct–4 Nov 2014	2,114	48	18	9	9	2	2	5	7	30
2014 European election	25 May 2014	–	40.5	20.1	4.3	12.1	3.1	2.9	8.1	9.0	20.4
Infratest dimap	10–12 Mar 2014	1,002	46	18	12	11	–	–	–	13	28
Infratest dimap	9–13 Jan 2014	1,004	49	19	9	10	4	2	–	7	30
2013 federal election	22 Sep 2013	–	49.3	20.0	2.7	8.4	5.1	3.8	4.3	6.4	29.3
2013 state election	15 Sep 2013	–	47.7	20.6	9.0	8.6	3.3	2.1	–	8.7	27.1

Policy areas relevant to elections

On behalf of the RTL/n-tv Trendbarometer, Forsa Institute interviewed the survey participants about the "biggest problems at state level". ^[19] "In Bavaria, 34 percent of those surveyed named the CSU and Prime Minister Markus Söder. 28 percent called the subject refugees, 26 percent 'the situation on the housing market'". ^[20]

Infratest dimap asked respondents to the ARD primary election survey which topic is very important for their election decision. In the order of most percentage points these were school and education policy (55%), nature conservation in Bavaria (46%), creation of affordable housing (45%), reduction of injustice in society (41%), security and police (40%), regulation of immigration (39%), the behaviour of Horst Seehofer in the federal government (26%), the cooperation of CDU, CSU and SPD in the federal government (21%). ^[21]

Voter turnout

The voter turnout in the city of Munich remained high. Until 2 p.m. it was 54.6 percent including the postal voters. In 2013, the turnout at that time was 49.7 percent. ^[22] The final total turnout was recorded as 72.3% of eligible voters. ^[23]

Election result

Summary of the 14 October 2018 election results ^[24] for the Landtag of Bavaria

Party		Ideology	Votes	Votes % (change)		Seats (change)		Seats %
	Christian Social Union (CSU)	Christian democracy	5,047,006	37.2%	−10.4pp	85	−16	41.5%
	Alliance '90/The Greens (Grünen)	Green politics	2,377,766	17.5%	+8.9pp	38	+20	18.5%
	Free Voters (FW)	Regionalism	1,571,288	11.6%	+2.6pp	27	+8	13.2%
	Alternative for Germany (AfD)	German nationalism	1,383,866	10.2%	+10.2pp	22	+22	10.7%
	Social Democratic Party (SPD)	Social democracy	1,317,942	9.7%	−10.9pp	22	−20	10.7%
	Free Democratic Party (FDP)	Liberalism	687,842	5.1%	+1.8pp	11	+11	5.4%
	The Left (Die Linke)	Democratic socialism	435,949	3.2%	+1.1pp	0	±0	0%
	Bavaria Party (BP)	Bavarian nationalism	231,930	1.7%	−0.4pp	0	±0	0%
	Ecological Democratic Party (ÖDP)	Green conservatism	211,784	1.6%	−0.5pp	0	±0	0%
	Pirate Party (Piraten)	Pirate politics	60,087	0.4%	−1.5pp	0	±0	0%
	Party for Franconia (Die Franken)	Regionalism	31,547	0.2%	−0.5pp	0	±0	0%
	Others					0	±0	0%
Total			11,812,965	100.0%		205	+25

Aftermath

Polls on a favorite coalition

The percentages indicate the proportion of respondents who would most like the particular coalition available for selection. The missing values to 100% made no statement.

Institute	Date	CSU Alone	CSU Grüne	Grüne SPD FDP FW	CSU AfD	CSU FW
Civey [25]	18 September 2018	19.3 %	15.4 %	15.3 %	13.7 %	10.1 %

State government formation

Before the election, CSU faction leader Thomas Kreuzer declared that the CSU would not form a coalition with the AfD or the Greens after the election. ^[26]

The CSU agreed on a coalition deal to govern with the Free Voters of Bavaria on 4 November 2018. ^[27]

References

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Bavaria state election, 2018 .

1. Wahltermine
2. Official results
3. Nahles kritisiert Merkel, Der Spiegel, 10 October 2018
4. Artikel 16 (1) Satz 3 Bayerische Verfassung
5. Landeswahlleiter Bayern: Übersicht über Wahltermine und -ergebnisse, abgerufen am 7. September 2016
6. Wahltermine
7. Bayerischer Rechts- und Verwaltungsreport: Staatsregierung setzt 14.10.2018 als Termin für Landtagswahl fest, Meldung vom 20. Februar 2018
8. Artikel 21 (1) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
9. Artikel 5 (5) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
10. Landeswahlleiter: Landtagswahl 2018: Fristen für die Aufstellung der Bewerber
11. Artikel 28 (2) Bayerisches Landeswahlgesetz
12. Art. 24 LWG
13. Art. 26 LWG
14. Bavarian State Government: Bericht der Bayerischen Staatsregierung über die Veränderung der Einwohnerzahlen in den Wahl- und den Stimmkreisen nach Art. 5 Abs. 5 des Landeswahlgesetzes vom 6. September 2016 Archived 2016-09-15 at the Wayback Machine ., abgerufen am 7. September 2016
15. "Gesetz zur Änderung des Landeswahlgesetzes" (PDF). Bayerischer Landtag. 2017-03-31. Retrieved 2018-03-08.
16. France-Presse, Agence (2018-04-25). "Bavarian leader orders Christian crosses on all state buildings". the Guardian. Retrieved 2018-05-31.
17. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/07/germany-hardline-csu-leader-unhappy-merkel-migration-plan-180701174707967.html
18. Schwarz gegen Grün faz.net, 18. September 2018
19. "Viele Bayern halten Markus Söder für ein Problem". Die Zeit. 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
20. "Bayern sehen CSU und Söder als Problem". n-tv. 2018-08-13. Retrieved 2018-08-19.
21. Ellen Ehni (2018-10-04). "CSU sackt auf 33 Prozent". Tagesschau.de . Retrieved 2018-10-05.
22. "Münchens Wahlbeteiligung mittlerweile bei 54,6 Prozent". welt.de. Retrieved 14 October 2018.
23. Landtagswahl am 14. Oktober 2018. Der Landeswahlleiter des Freistaates Bayern. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
25. Alleinregierung der CSU ist beliebter als Koalition, focus.de, retrieved 18 September 2018.
26. CSU schließt schwarz-grüne Koalition in Bayern aus. Welt Online, 8. September 2018.
27. Bavarian conservatives and Free Voters reach coalition deal. POLITICO (Europe edition). Author - Joshua Posaner. Published 4 November 2018. Updated 5 November 2018. Retrieved 1 December 2018.