Climate target

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States by intended year of climate neutrality. .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Already climate neutral or positive 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2053 2060 2070 Unknown or undeclared States by intended year of climate neutrality.svg
States by intended year of climate neutrality.
  Already climate neutral or positive
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  2045
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Emission budget and necessary emission reduction pathways to meet the two-degree target agreed in Paris Agreement without negative emissions, depending on the emission peak Carbon budget eng.png
Emission budget and necessary emission reduction pathways to meet the two-degree target agreed in Paris Agreement without negative emissions, depending on the emission peak
World map for Sustainable Development Goal 13 Indicator 13.A.1: Green Climate Fund mobilization of $100 billion, 2018. Green-climate-gcf-fund-pledges.png
World map for Sustainable Development Goal 13 Indicator 13.A.1: Green Climate Fund mobilization of $100 billion, 2018.
Share of energy consumption from renewable sources for EU and EEA countries 2020 and 2021, compared to the national targets for 2020. EU28 (including United Kingdom) pledged an average of 20 percent renewable energy for 2020, and EU27 reached 22 percent. EU-27 share of renewable energy vs 2020 target.png
Share of energy consumption from renewable sources for EU and EEA countries 2020 and 2021, compared to the national targets for 2020. EU28 (including United Kingdom) pledged an average of 20 percent renewable energy for 2020, and EU27 reached 22 percent.

A climate target, climate goal or climate pledge is a measurable long-term commitment for climate policy and energy policy with the aim of limiting the climate change. Researchers within, among others, the UN climate panel have identified probable consequences of global warming for people and nature at different levels of warming. Based on this, politicians in a large number of countries have agreed on temperature targets for warming, which is the basis for scientifically calculated carbon budgets and ways to achieve these targets. This in turn forms the basis for politically decided global and national emission targets for greenhouse gases, targets for fossil-free energy production and efficient energy use, and for the extent of planned measures for climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Contents

At least 164 countries have implemented climate targets in their national climate legislation. [4]

Global climate targets

Countries' targets for when new sales of fossil fuel vehicles should be prohibited. 2020s 2030s 2040s 2050s Phase-out of fossil fuel vehicles.svg
Countries' targets for when new sales of fossil fuel vehicles should be prohibited.
  2020s
  2030s
  2040s
  2050s
Number of parties in multilateral environmental agreements. Number of parties in multilateral environmental agreements, OWID.svg
Number of parties in multilateral environmental agreements.

Global climate targets are goals that a large number of countries have agreed upon, including at United Nations Climate Change conferences (COP). Targets often referred to are:

Calculation of Emissions Targets

An emissions target or greenhouse gas emissions reduction target is a central policy instrument of international greenhouse gas emissions reduction politics and a key pillar of climate policy. [10] [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] They typically include heavy consideration of emissions budgets, which are calculated using rate of warming per standard emission of carbon dioxide, a historic baseline temperature, a desired level of confidence and a target global average temperature to stay below. [16]

An "emissions target" may be distinguished from an emissions budget, as an emissions target may be internationally or nationally set in accordance with objectives other than a specific global temperature. This includes targets created for their political palatability, rather than budgets scientifically determined to meet a specific temperature target. [17] [18]

A country's determination of emissions targets is based on careful consideration of pledged NDCs (nationally determined contributions), economic and social feasibility, and political palatability. [19] Carbon budgets can provide political entities with knowledge of how much carbon can be emitted before likely reaching a certain temperature threshold, but specific emissions targets take more into account. The exact way these targets are determined varies widely from country to country. Variation in emissions targets and time to complete them depends on factors such as accounting of land-use emissions, afforestation capacity of a country, and a countries transport emissions. [20] Importantly, emissions targets also depend on their hypothesized reception.

Many emissions pathways, budgets and targets also rely on the implementation of negative emissions technology. [21] These currently undeveloped technologies are predicted to pull net emissions down even as source emissions are not reduced.

Effectiveness of Targets

Many countries' emissions targets are above the scientifically calculated allowable emissions to remain below a certain temperature threshold. [22] [23] In 2015, many countries pledged NDCs to limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. [24] Many of the largest emitters of GHGs, however, are on track to push global average temperature to as much as 4 °C. [22] Some of these projections contradict agreements made in the 2015 Paris Agreement, meaning countries are not keeping to their pledged NDCs.

In addition, it is uncertain how effective many emissions targets and accompanying policies really are. [25] For example, with countries that have high consumption-based carbon emissions, strictly enforced, aligned and coordinated international policy measures determine the effectiveness of targets. In addition, many ambitious policies are proposed and passed but are not practically enforced or regulated, or have unintended consequences. China's ETS (emissions trading scheme), while seeming to have an effect on reducing production-based emissions also promoted outsourcing of emissions contributing to a further imbalance of carbon transfer among China's different provinces. [26] The ETS evaluation also did not account for exported consumption-based emissions.

Many countries aim to reach net zero emissions in the next few decades. [20] In order to reach this goal however, there must be a radical shift in energy infrastructure. [27] For example, in the United States, political entities are attempting to switch away from coal and oil based energy by replacing plants with natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. [28] Other countries like the Netherlands were obligated by the District Court of Hague to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2020. The Court has passed other innovations (Milieudefensie v. Royal Dutch Shell) to reduce dioxide emissions by 45% by 2030. [29] However many find this transition to not be significant enough to reach net-zero emissions. [28] [30] More significant changes, for example using biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are suggested as a viable option to transition to net-zero emissions countries. [31] [32]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change</span> International environmental treaty

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the UN process for negotiating an agreement to limit dangerous climate change. It is an international treaty among countries to combat "dangerous human interference with the climate system". The main way to do this is limiting the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It was signed in 1992 by 154 states at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED), informally known as the Earth Summit, held in Rio de Janeiro. The treaty entered into force on 21 March 1994. "UNFCCC" is also the name of the Secretariat charged with supporting the operation of the convention, with offices on the UN Campus in Bonn, Germany.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change mitigation</span> Actions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change

Climate change mitigation (or decarbonisation) is action to limit the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that cause climate change. Climate change mitigation actions include conserving energy and replacing fossil fuels with clean energy sources. Secondary mitigation strategies include changes to land use and removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. Current climate change mitigation policies are insufficient as they would still result in global warming of about 2.7 °C by 2100, significantly above the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of limiting global warming to below 2 °C.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse gas emissions</span> Greenhouse gases emitted from human activities

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect. This contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide, from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, is one of the most important factors in causing climate change. The largest emitters are China followed by the United States. The United States has higher emissions per capita. The main producers fueling the emissions globally are large oil and gas companies. Emissions from human activities have increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by about 50% over pre-industrial levels. The growing levels of emissions have varied, but have been consistent among all greenhouse gases. Emissions in the 2010s averaged 56 billion tons a year, higher than any decade before. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2022 were 703 GtC, of which 484±20 GtC from fossil fuels and industry, and 219±60 GtC from land use change. Land-use change, such as deforestation, caused about 31% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2022, coal 32%, oil 24%, and gas 10%.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in China</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of China related to climate change

Climate change is having major effects on the Chinese economy, society and the environment. China is the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, through an energy infrastructure heavily focused on coal. China's per capita emissions are greater than the world and European Union averages but less than Australia, Canada, and the U.S. China recorded its hottest year on record in 2023, with an average temperature of 10.7 °C. On the basis of cumulative CO2 emissions measured from 1751 through to 2017, China is responsible for 13% of global and about half of the United States' cumulative emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Sweden</span>

Climate change has received significant scientific, public and political attention in Sweden. In 1896, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius was the first scientist to quantify global heating. Sweden has a high energy consumtion per capita, but reducing the dependency on fossil energy has been on the agenda of cabinets of the Governments of Sweden since the 1970s oil crises. In 2014 and 2016, Sweden was ranked #1 in the Global Green Economy Index (GGEI), because the Swedish economy produces relatively low emissions. Sweden has had one of the highest usages of biofuel in Europe and aims at prohibiting new sales of fossil-cars, including hybrid cars, by 2035, and for an energy supply system with zero net atmospheric greenhouse gas emissions by 2045.

A climate change scenario is a hypothetical future based on a "set of key driving forces". Scenarios explore the long-term effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation. Scenarios help to understand what the future may hold. They can show which decisions will have the most meaningful effects on mitigation and adaptation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Europe</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of Europe related to climate change

Climate change has resulted in an increase in temperature of 2.3 °C (4.14 °F) (2022) in Europe compared to pre-industrial levels. Europe is the fastest warming continent in the world. Europe's climate is getting warmer due to anthropogenic activity. According to international climate experts, global temperature rise should not exceed 2 °C to prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change; without reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this could happen before 2050. Climate change has implications for all regions of Europe, with the extent and nature of impacts varying across the continent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nationally determined contribution</span> Component of international climate change agreements

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are commitments that countries make to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions as part of climate change mitigation. These commitments include the necessary policies and measures for achieving the global targets set out in the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement has a long-term temperature goal which is to keep the rise in global surface temperature to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) above pre-industrial levels. The treaty also states that preferably the limit of the increase should only be 1.5 °C (2.7 °F). To achieve this temperature goal, greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced as soon as, and by as much as, possible. To stay below 1.5 °C of global warming, emissions need to be cut by roughly 50% by 2030. This figure takes into account each country's documented pledges or NDCs.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Turkey</span> Impact of global warming on Turkey and adaptation to it

Droughts and heatwaves are the main hazards due to the climate of Turkey getting hotter. The temperature has risen by more than 1.5 °C (2.7 °F), and there is more extreme weather.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon budget</span> Limit on carbon dioxide emission for a given climate impact

A carbon budget is a concept used in climate policy to help set emissions reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It examines the "maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level". It can be expressed relative to the pre-industrial period. In this case, it is the total carbon budget. Or it can be expressed from a recent specified date onwards. In that case it is the remaining carbon budget.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C</span> Special climate change report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018. The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries. In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report. The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change. Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions" and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Malaysia</span> Impact of global warming on the south-east Asian country and mitigating and adaptating to it

Climate change is having a considerable impact in Malaysia. Increasing temperatures are likely to greatly increase the number of heatwaves occurring annually. Variations in precipitation may increase the frequency of droughts and floods in various local areas. Sea level rise may inundate some coastal areas. These impacts are expected to have numerous environmental and socioeconomic effects, exacerbating existing environmental issues and reinforcing inequality.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Niklas Höhne</span> German researcher

Niklas Höhne is a German scientist in the field of national and international climate policy and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. He is founder of the NewClimate Institute in Cologne, Germany and professor at Wageningen University.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in India</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of India related to climate change

India was ranked seventh among the list of countries most affected by climate change in 2019. India emits about 3 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2eq of greenhouse gases each year; about two and a half tons per person, which is less than the world average. The country emits 7% of global emissions, despite having 17% of the world population. The climate change performance index of India ranks eighth among 63 countries which account for 92% of all GHG emissions in the year 2021.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of the MENA region related to climate change

Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) refers to changes in the climate of the MENA region and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of countries in the region. In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) despite making up only 6% of the global population. These emissions are mostly from the energy sector, an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region. The region of Middle East is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves and sea level rise.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainable Development Goal 13</span> UN goal to combat climate change

Sustainable Development Goal 13 is to limit and adapt to climate change. It is one of 17 Sustainable Development Goals established by the United Nations General Assembly in 2015. The official mission statement of this goal is to "Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts". SDG 13 and SDG 7 on clean energy are closely related and complementary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in South Africa</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of South Africa related to climate change

Climate change in South Africa is leading to increased temperatures and rainfall variability. Evidence shows that extreme weather events are becoming more prominent due to climate change. This is a critical concern for South Africans as climate change will affect the overall status and wellbeing of the country, for example with regards to water resources. Just like many other parts of the world, climate research showed that the real challenge in South Africa was more related to environmental issues rather than developmental ones. The most severe effect will be targeting the water supply, which has huge effects on the agriculture sector. Speedy environmental changes are resulting in clear effects on the community and environmental level in different ways and aspects, starting with air quality, to temperature and weather patterns, reaching out to food security and disease burden.

This article documents events, research findings, scientific and technological advances, and human actions to measure, predict, mitigate, and adapt to the effects of global warming and climate change—during the year 2021.

Joeri Rogelj is a Belgian climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. He is a Professor in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Net-zero emissions</span> Rate of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions

Global net-zero emissions describe the state where emissions of greenhouse gases due to human activities and removals of these gases are in balance over a given period. It is often called simply net zero. In some cases, emissions refers to emissions of all greenhouse gases, and in others it refers only to emissions of carbon dioxide. To reach net zero targets requires actions to reduce emissions. One example would be by shifting from fossil fuel energy to sustainable energy sources. Organizations often offset their residual emissions by buying carbon credits.

References

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Notes

  1. ↑ Climate positive is synonymous to carbon negative but includes greenhouse gases other than carbon dioxide. [1] [2]
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