Currency manipulator

Last updated

Currency manipulator is a designation applied by United States government authorities, such as the United States Department of the Treasury, to countries that engage in what is called "unfair currency practices" that give them a trade advantage. Such practices may be currency intervention or monetary policy in which a central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and commercial policy. Policymakers may have different reasons for currency intervention, such as controlling inflation, maintaining international competitiveness, or financial stability. In many cases, the central bank weakens its own currency to subsidize exports and raise the price of imports, sometimes by as much as 30–40%, and it is thereby a method of protectionism. [1] Currency manipulation is not necessarily easy to identify and some people have considered quantitative easing to be a form of currency manipulation. [2]

Contents

Under the 1988 Omnibus Foreign Trade and Competitiveness Act, the United States Secretary of the Treasury is required to "analyze on an annual basis the exchange rate policies of foreign countries … and consider whether countries manipulate the exchange rate between their currency and the United States dollar for purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade" and that "If the Secretary considers that such manipulation is occurring with respect to countries that (1) have material global current account surpluses; and (2) have significant bilateral trade surpluses with the United States, the Secretary of the Treasury shall take action to initiate negotiations with such foreign countries on an expedited basis, in the International Monetary Fund or bilaterally, for the purpose of ensuring that such countries regularly and promptly adjust the rate of exchange between their currencies and the United States dollar to permit effective balance of payments". [3]

A designated currency manipulator can be excluded from U.S. government procurement contracts. [4]

According to the Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015, the Secretary of the Treasury must publish a semi-annual report in which the developments in international economic and exchange rate policies are reviewed. If a country is labeled a currency manipulator under this Act, "The President, through Treasury, shall take specified remedial action against any such countries that fail to adopt policies to correct the undervaluation of their currency and trade surplus with the United States." [5] [6]

It has been argued that the concept of "currency manipulation" is hypocritical, given that the US already has the privilege of having the main reserve currency of the world, which is needed for international trade. Massive interventions of the Federal Reserve since the financial crisis of 2008, such as Quantitative Easing and interventions in the REPO market have been cited as alleged examples of the U.S.. itself engaging in currency manipulation.

Designations under the 1988 Act

Since the 1988 Act was enacted, the United States Department of the Treasury has designated the following countries as currency manipulators:

In May 2019, the US Treasury removed India and Switzerland from its currency monitoring list but China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Ireland, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam remained on the list. [8] India was removed from the list after it met one of the three criteria necessary for inclusion on the monitoring list, namely, a significant bilateral surplus with the US. India also reduced its level of foreign exchange reserves, to 0.2% of GDP. [9] An analysis by The Economist in 2017 noted that Switzerland has been manipulating its currency more than China since 2009 and Taiwan and South Korea have been doing so since 2014. [10]

In December 2020, India, Thailand, and Taiwan were added to the monitoring list. China, Japan, South Korea, Germany, Italy, Singapore and Malaysia continued to be on the list. [18] [19]

Evaluation criteria

Evaluation criteria, April 2021 [20]
CountryFX Intervention Current Account Bilateral TradeEnhanced
engagement
Monitoring
list
Net Purchases
(% of GDP)
≧ 2%
Balance
(% of GDP)
≧ 2%
Goods Surplus
(billion USD)
≧ 20 billion USD
Flag of Singapore.svg  Singapore 28.317.64Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Switzerland (Pantone).svg   Switzerland 15.33.757Green check.svg Yes
Flag of the Republic of China.svg  Taiwan 5.814.130Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Vietnam.svg  Vietnam 4.43.770Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Thailand.svg  Thailand 1.93.226Green check.svg Yes
Flag of the People's Republic of China.svg  China −0.1 — 1.21.9311Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Malaysia.svg  Malaysia 0.64.432Green check.svg Yes
Flag of South Korea.svg  South Korea 0.34.625Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Japan.svg  Japan 0.03.355Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Mexico.svg  Mexico −0.22.4113Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Germany.svg  Germany -6.957Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Ireland.svg  Ireland -4.856Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Italy.svg  Italy -3.730Green check.svg Yes
Evaluation criteria, December 2020 [21]
CountryBilateral Trade Current Account FX InterventionCurrency
manipulator
Monitoring List.
Goods Surplus
(billion USD)
≧ 20 billion USD
Balance
(% of GDP)
≧ 2%
Net Purchases
(% of GDP)
≧ 2%
Flag of the People's Republic of China.svg  China 3101.1−0.1Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Germany.svg  Germany 626.8Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Vietnam.svg  Vietnam 584.65.1Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Japan.svg  Japan 573.10Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Switzerland (Pantone).svg   Switzerland 498.814.2Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Italy.svg  Italy 303.0Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Malaysia.svg  Malaysia 292.51.1Green check.svg Yes
Flag of the Republic of China.svg  Taiwan 2510.91.7Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Thailand.svg  Thailand 226.31.8Green check.svg Yes
Flag of India.svg  India 220.42.4Green check.svg Yes
Flag of South Korea.svg  South Korea 203.5−0.6Green check.svg Yes
Flag of Singapore.svg  Singapore −116.121.3Green check.svg Yes

Impact on manufacturing

Currency manipulation has a disproportionate effect on the secondary sector of the economy and lobbyists of the U.S. manufacturing sector have regularly referred to China as a currency manipulator. A 2013 analysis by Carlos D. Ramirez found that "an increase of one percentage point in the share of congressional district labor force in manufacturing is associated with a 19.6% increase in the likelihood that the district legislator will label Mainland China a currency manipulator". [22]

Reactions

In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated U.S. trade deficits with a number of nations, including Switzerland and Vietnam. While the Swiss National Bank continued to practice currency interventions to stop the influx of foreign money during economic crisis, the State Bank of Vietnam as well said that its foreign exchange rate policy "is a way to contain inflation, ensure macro stability and not to create an unfair trade advantage". A senior U.S. treasury official said the US aimed "to resolve our issues" with Vietnam and Switzerland within a year. He added that the Biden administration had not been briefed on the issue, and that "they are not implicated in this." [23] [24]

After the Biden administration moved Switzerland, Vietnam and Taiwan to an enhanced engagement status in April 2021, US treasury officials confirmed that the COVID-19 pandemic has caused massive trade and capital flow distortions, increasing the necessity for currency interventions in those export-oriented countries. Taiwanese and Vietnamese officials welcomed the move not to categorize them as currency manipulators, since US authorities understood their "special situation". Both the State Bank of Vietnam and the Swiss National Bank would continue to practice currency interventions to contain inflation, and ensure macro-economic stability. [25]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Balance of trade</span> Difference between the monetary value of exports and imports

Balance of trade can be measured in terms of commercial balance, or net exports. Balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of a nation's exports and imports over a certain time period. Sometimes a distinction is made between a balance of trade for goods versus one for services. The balance of trade measures a flow variable of exports and imports over a given period of time. The notion of the balance of trade does not mean that exports and imports are "in balance" with each other.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">China–United States relations</span> Bilateral relations

The relationship between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America has been mostly complex, and at times, strenuous since the establishment of the PRC and the retreat of the government of the Republic of China to Taiwan in 1949. They have significant economic ties and are significantly intertwined, yet they also have a global hegemonic great power rivalry.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Plaza Accord</span> 1985 international agreement on fiscal policy

The Plaza Accord was a joint agreement signed on September 22, 1985, at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, between France, West Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, to depreciate the U.S. dollar in relation to the French franc, the German Deutsche Mark, the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling by intervening in currency markets. The U.S. dollar depreciated significantly from the time of the agreement until it was replaced by the Louvre Accord in 1987. Some commentators believe the Plaza Accord contributed to the Japanese asset price bubble of the late 1980s.

In macroeconomics and modern monetary policy, a devaluation is an official lowering of the value of a country's currency within a fixed exchange-rate system, in which a monetary authority formally sets a lower exchange rate of the national currency in relation to a foreign reference currency or currency basket. The opposite of devaluation, a change in the exchange rate making the domestic currency more expensive, is called a revaluation. A monetary authority maintains a fixed value of its currency by being ready to buy or sell foreign currency with the domestic currency at a stated rate; a devaluation is an indication that the monetary authority will buy and sell foreign currency at a lower rate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Foreign exchange market</span> Global decentralized trading of international currencies

The foreign exchange market is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of trading volume, it is by far the largest market in the world, followed by the credit market.

Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Strong dollar policy</span> United States economic policy

The strong dollar policy is the United States economic policy based on the assumption that a strong exchange rate of the United States dollar is in the interests of the United States and the whole world. It is said to be also driven by a desire to encourage foreign bondholders to buy more Treasury securities. The United States Secretary of the Treasury occasionally states that the U.S. supports a strong dollar. The policy keeps inflation low, encourages foreign investment, and maintains the currency's role in the global financial system.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Floating exchange rate</span> Currency value as determined by foreign market events

In macroeconomics and economic policy, a floating exchange rate is a type of exchange rate regime in which a currency's value is allowed to fluctuate in response to foreign exchange market events. A currency that uses a floating exchange rate is known as a floating currency, in contrast to a fixed currency, the value of which is instead specified in terms of material goods, another currency, or a set of currencies.

International finance is the branch of financial economics broadly concerned with monetary and macroeconomic interrelations between two or more countries. International finance examines the dynamics of the global financial system, international monetary systems, balance of payments, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and how these topics relate to international trade.

The United States foreign policy toward the People's Republic of China originated during the Cold War. At that time, the U.S. had a containment policy against communist states. The leaked Pentagon Papers indicated the efforts by the U.S. to contain China through military actions undertaken in the Vietnam War. The containment policy centered around an island chain strategy. President Richard Nixon's China rapprochement signaled a shift in focus to gain leverage in containing the Soviet Union. Formal diplomatic ties between the U.S. and China were established in 1979, and with normalized trade relations since 2000, the U.S. and China have been linked by closer economic ties and more cordial relations. In his first term as U.S. president, Barack Obama said, "We want China to succeed and prosper. It's good for the United States if China continues on the path of development that it's on".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency intervention</span> Monetary policy operation

Currency intervention, also known as foreign exchange market intervention or currency manipulation, is a monetary policy operation. It occurs when a government or central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for its own domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and trade policy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sterilization (economics)</span>

In macroeconomics, sterilization is action taken by a country's central bank to counter the effects on the money supply caused by a balance of payments surplus or deficit. This can involve open market operations undertaken by the central bank whose aim is to neutralize the impact of associated foreign exchange operations. The opposite is unsterilized intervention, where monetary authorities have not insulated their country's domestic money supply and internal balance against foreign exchange intervention.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency basket</span> Financial portfolio

A currency basket is a portfolio of selected currencies with different weightings. A currency basket is commonly used by investors to minimize the risk of currency fluctuations and also governments when setting the market value of a country's currency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency war</span> Competition between nations to gain competitive advantage by manipulating monetary supply

Currency war, also known as competitive devaluations, is a condition in international affairs where countries seek to gain a trade advantage over other countries by causing the exchange rate of their currency to fall in relation to other currencies. As the exchange rate of a country's currency falls, exports become more competitive in other countries, and imports into the country become more and more expensive. Both effects benefit the domestic industry, and thus employment, which receives a boost in demand from both domestic and foreign markets. However, the price increases for import goods are unpopular as they harm citizens' purchasing power; and when all countries adopt a similar strategy, it can lead to a general decline in international trade, harming all countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Renminbi currency value</span> Value of the currency of China

Renminbi currency value is a debate affecting the Chinese currency unit, the renminbi. The renminbi is classified as a fixed exchange rate currency "with reference to a basket of currencies", which has drawn attention from nations which have freely floated currency and has become a source of trade friction with Western nations.

India has large foreign-exchange reserves; holdings of cash, bank deposits, bonds, and other financial assets denominated in currencies other than India's national currency, the Indian rupee. The reserves are managed by the Reserve Bank of India for the Indian government and the main component is foreign currency assets.

In 1945, China cofounded the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with 34 other nations. China was initially represented by the Republic of China. In April 1980, representation transferred to the People's Republic of China. The Chinese-IMF relationship mainly operates around affairs associated with IMF governance and the IMF Special Drawing Rights (SDR).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">China–United States trade war</span> 2018–present economic conflict

An economic conflict between China and the United States has been ongoing since January 2018, when U.S. President Donald Trump began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China with the goal of forcing it to make changes to what the U.S. says are longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. The Trump administration stated that these practices may contribute to the U.S.–China trade deficit, and that the Chinese government requires transfer of American technology to China. In response to US trade measures, the Chinese government accused the Trump administration of engaging in nationalist protectionism and took retaliatory action. After the trade war escalated through 2019, in January 2020 the two sides reached a tense phase one agreement; it expired in December 2021 with China failing by a wide margin to reach its targets for U.S. imports to China. By the end of the Trump presidency, the trade war was widely characterized as a failure for the United States. His successor, Joe Biden, however, has kept the tariffs in place. In early 2024, the Trump campaign was mulling a 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

References

  1. Bergsten, C. Fred (February 25, 2015). "Currency Manipulation: Why Something Must Be Done". Forbes .
  2. JOHNSTON, MATTHEW (June 25, 2019). "Quantitative Easing vs. Currency Manipulation". Investopedia .
  3. "OMNIBUS TRADE AND COMPETITIVENESS ACT OF 1988 (H.R. 3) : SEC. 3004. INTERNATIONAL NEGOTIATIONS ON EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC POLICIES" (PDF). United States Department of the Treasury.
  4. 1 2 Shalal, Andrea; Lawder, David; Wroughton, Lesley; Brice, Makini (August 5, 2019). "U.S. designates China as currency manipulator for first time in decades". Reuters .
  5. "H.R.644 – Trade Facilitation and Trade Enforcement Act of 2015. 114th Congress (2015–2016), VII, Sec. 701". Congress.gov . February 24, 2016.
  6. "Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States". United States Department of the Treasury.
  7. "India removed from 'currency manipulation' monitoring list". Archived from the original on 2020-10-24. Retrieved 2020-01-14.
  8. "US removes India from its currency monitoring list; China, Japan stay". Business Standard. Press Trust of India. May 29, 2019.
  9. US removes India, Switzerland from its currency monitoring list
  10. "China and currency manipulation: Champs or chumps". The Economist . March 2, 2017.
  11. "Treasury Designates China as a Currency Manipulator" (Press release). United States Department of the Treasury. August 5, 2019.
  12. "Trump pressured Mnuchin to label China 'currency manipulator', a move he had previously resisted". Washington Post.
  13. Palmer, Doug. "New IMF report doesn't back Trump's currency manipulation charge against China". POLITICO.
  14. US reverses China 'currency manipulator' label
  15. "US drops designation of China as currency manipulator". Associated Press . 2020-01-13. Archived from the original on 2023-05-29.
  16. "US removes Vietnam, Switzerland from currency manipulator list". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2021-04-17.
  17. "US lifts Vietnam, Switzerland from currency manipulator list". ABC News. Retrieved 2021-04-17.
  18. Trump fires parting shot as US labels Switzerland, Vietnam as currency manipulators
  19. "Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States". US Department of the Treasury. December 16, 2020.
  20. "Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States" (PDF). US Department of the Treasury. April 2021.
  21. "Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States" (PDF). US Department of the Treasury. December 2020.
  22. Ramirez, Carlos D. (December 2013). "The political economy of "currency manipulation" bashing". China Economic Review . 27: 227–237. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.408.3085 . doi:10.1016/j.chieco.2012.10.005.
  23. Politi, James; Szalay, Eva (December 16, 2020)."US declares Switzerland and Vietnam currency manipulators". ft.com.
  24. "US Treasury lists Switzerland and Vietnam as forex manipulators." [ permanent dead link ] thegreaterindia.com. Retrieved 17 December 2020.
  25. "U.S. stops short of branding Vietnam, Switzerland, Taiwan currency manipulators" metro.us. Retrieved 27. April 2021.