Disparate impact

Last updated

Disparate impact in the law of the United States refers to practices in employment, housing, and other areas that adversely affect one group of people of a protected characteristic more than another, even though rules applied by employers or landlords are formally neutral. Although the protected classes vary by statute, most federal civil rights laws consider race, color, religion, national origin, and sex to be protected characteristics, and some laws include disability status and other traits as well.

Contents

A violation of Title VII of the 1964 Civil Rights Act may be proven by showing that an employment practice or policy has a disproportionately adverse effect on members of the protected class as compared with non-members of the protected class. [1] Therefore, the disparate impact theory under Title VII prohibits employers "from using a facially neutral employment practice that has an unjustified adverse impact on members of a protected class. A facially neutral employment practice is one that does not appear to be discriminatory on its face; rather it is one that is discriminatory in its application or effect." [2] Where a disparate impact is shown, the plaintiff can prevail without the necessity of showing intentional discrimination unless the defendant employer demonstrates that the practice or policy in question has a demonstrable relationship to the requirements of the job in question. [3] This is the "business necessity" defense. [1]

Some civil rights laws, such as Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, do not contain disparate impact provisions creating a private right of action, [4] although the federal government may still pursue disparate impact claims under these laws. [5] Although they do not contain explicit disparate impact provisions, the U.S. Supreme Court has held that the Age Discrimination in Employment Act of 1967 [6] and the Fair Housing Act of 1968 create a cause of action for disparate impact. [7]

Adverse impact

While disparate impact is a legal theory of liability under Title VII, adverse impact is one element of that doctrine, which measures the effect an employment practice has on a class protected by Title VII. In the Uniform Guidelines on Employee Selection Procedures, an adverse impact is defined as a "substantially different rate of selection in hiring, promotion, or other employment decision which works to the disadvantage of members of a race, sex, or ethnic group". [8] A "substantially different" rate is typically defined in government enforcement or Title VII litigation settings using the 80% Rule, statistical significance tests, and/or practical significance tests. Adverse impact is often used interchangeably with "disparate impact", which was a legal term coined in one of the most significant U.S. Supreme Court rulings on disparate or adverse impact: Griggs v. Duke Power Co. , 1971. Adverse Impact does not mean that an individual in a majority group is given preference over a minority group. However, having adverse impact does mean that there is the "potential" for discrimination in the hiring process and it could warrant investigation. [9]

The 80% rule

The 80% test was originally framed by a panel of 32 professionals (called the Technical Advisory Committee on Testing, or TACT) assembled by the State of California Fair Employment Practice Commission (FEPC) in 1971, which published the State of California Guidelines on Employee Selection Procedures in October 1972. This was the first official government document that listed the 80% test in the context of adverse impact, and was later codified in the 1978 Uniform Guidelines on Employee Selection Procedures, a document used by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), Department of Labor, and Department of Justice in Title VII enforcement. [10]

Originally, the Uniform Guidelines on Employee Selection Procedures provided a simple "80 percent" rule for determining that a company's selection system was having an "adverse impact" on a minority group. The rule was based on the rates at which job applicants were hired. For example, if XYZ Company hired 50 percent of the men applying for work in a predominantly male occupation while hiring only 20 percent of the female applicants, one could look at the ratio of those two hiring rates to judge whether there might be a discrimination problem. The ratio of 20:50 means that the rate of hiring for female applicants is only 40 percent of the rate of hiring for male applicants. That is, 20 divided by 50 equals 0.40, which is equivalent to 40 percent. Clearly, 40 percent is well below the 80 percent that was arbitrarily set as an acceptable difference in hiring rates. Therefore, in this example, XYZ Company could have been called upon to prove that there was a legitimate reason for hiring men at a rate so much higher than the rate of hiring women. Since the 1980s, courts in the U.S. have questioned the arbitrary nature of the 80 percent rule, making the rule less important than it was when the Uniform Guidelines were first published. A 2007 memorandum from the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunities Commission suggests that a more defensible standard would be based on comparing a company's hiring rate of a particular group with the rate that would occur if the company simply selected people at random. [11]

More advanced testing

The concept of practical significance for adverse impact was first introduced by Section 4D of the Uniform Guidelines, [12] which states "Smaller differences in selection rate may nevertheless constitute adverse impact, where they are significant in both statistical and practical terms ..." Several federal court cases have applied practical significance tests to adverse impact analyses to assess the "practicality" or "stability" of the results. This is typically done by evaluating the change to the statistical significance tests after hypothetically changing focal group members selection status from "failing" to "passing" (see for example, Contreras v. City of Los Angeles (656 F.2d 1267, 9th Cir. 1981); U.S. v. Commonwealth of Virginia (569 F.2d 1300, 4th Cir. 1978); and Waisome v. Port Authority (948 F.2d 1370, 1376, 2d Cir. 1991)).

Unintentional discrimination

This form of discrimination occurs where an employer does not intend to discriminate; to the contrary, it occurs when identical standards or procedures are applied to everyone, despite the fact that they lead to a substantial difference in employment outcomes for the members of a particular group and they are unrelated to successful job performance. An important thing to note is that disparate impact is not, in and of itself, illegal. [13] This is because disparate impact only becomes illegal if the employer cannot justify the employment practice causing the adverse impact as a "job related for the position in question and consistent with business necessity" (called the "business necessity defense"). [14]

The Fair Housing Act

The disparate impact theory has application also in the housing context under Title VIII of the Civil Rights Act of 1968, also known as the Fair Housing Act. The ten federal appellate courts that have addressed the issue have all determined that one may establish a Fair Housing Act violation through the disparate impact theory of liability. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development's Office of Fair Housing and Equal Opportunity, the federal government which administers the Fair Housing Act, issued a proposed regulation on November 16, 2011, setting forth how HUD applies disparate impact in Fair Housing Act cases. On February 8, 2013, HUD issued its Final Rule. [15]

Until 2015, the U.S. Supreme Court had not yet determined whether the Fair Housing Act allowed for claims of disparate impact. This question reached the Supreme Court twice since 2012, first in Magner v. Gallagher and then in Township of Mount Holly v. Mount Holly Gardens Citizens. Both cases settled before the Supreme Court could issue a decision; the Obama administration had encouraged settlement, as civil rights groups feared that a Supreme Court ruling on the issue would be hostile to disparate impact theories, and thus weaken housing discrimination enforcement. [16] [17]

On June 25, 2015, by a 5–4 decision in Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs v. Inclusive Communities Project, Inc., the Supreme Court held [7] that disparate-impact claims are cognizable under the Fair Housing Act. In an opinion by Justice Kennedy, "Recognition of disparate-impact claims is also consistent with the central purpose of the FHA, which, like Title VII and the ADEA, was enacted to eradicate discriminatory practices within a sector of the Nation's economy. Suits targeting unlawful zoning laws and other housing restrictions that unfairly exclude minorities from certain neighborhoods without sufficient justification are at the heartland of disparate-impact liability...Recognition of disparate impact liability under the FHA plays an important role in uncovering discriminatory intent: it permits plaintiffs to counteract unconscious prejudices and disguised animus that escape easy classification as disparate treatment." Under the Court's ruling in Inclusive Communities, in order to prove a case of disparate impact housing discrimination, the following must occur:

Relevant case law

Controversy

The disparate impact theory of liability is controversial for several reasons. First, it labels certain unintended effects as "discriminatory", although discrimination is normally an intentional act. Second, the theory is in tension with disparate treatment provisions under civil rights laws as well as the U.S. Constitution's guarantee of equal protection. For example, if the hypothetical fire department discussed above used the 100-pound requirement, that policy might disproportionately exclude female job applicants from employment. Under the 80% rule mentioned above, unsuccessful female job applicants would have a prima facie case of disparate impact "discrimination" against the department if they passed the 100-pound test at a rate less than 80% of the rate at which men passed the test. In order to avoid a lawsuit by the female job applicants, the department might refuse to hire anyone from its applicant pool—in other words, the department may refuse to hire anyone because too many of the successful job applicants were male. Thus, the employer would have intentionally discriminated against the successful male job applicants because of their gender, and that likely amounts to illegal disparate treatment and a violation of the Constitution's right to equal protection. In the 2009 case Ricci v. DeStefano , the U.S. Supreme Court did rule that a fire department committed illegal disparate treatment by refusing to promote white firefighters, in an effort to avoid disparate impact liability in a potential lawsuit by black and Hispanic firefighters who disproportionately failed the required tests for promotion. Although the Court in that case did not reach the constitutional issue, Justice Scalia's concurring opinion suggested the fire department also violated the constitutional right to equal protection. Even before Ricci, lower federal courts have ruled that actions taken to avoid potential disparate impact liability violate the constitutional right to equal protection. One such case is Biondo v. City of Chicago, Illinois, from the Seventh Circuit.

In 2013, the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) filed a suit, EEOC v. FREEMAN, [19] against the use of typical criminal-background and credit checks during the hiring process. While admitting that there are many legitimate and race-neutral reasons for employers to screen out convicted criminals and debtors, the EEOC presented the theory that this practice is discriminatory because minorities in the U.S. are more likely to be convicted criminals with bad credit histories than white Americans. Ergo, employers should have to include criminals and debtors in their hiring. In this instance U.S. District Judge Roger Titus ruled firmly against the disparate impact theory, stating that EEOC's action had been "a theory in search of facts to support it". "By bringing actions of this nature, the EEOC has placed many employers in the "Hobson's choice" of ignoring criminal history and credit background, thus exposing themselves to potential liability for criminal and fraudulent acts committed by employees, on the one hand, or incurring the wrath of the EEOC for having utilized information deemed fundamental by most employers. Something more... must be utilized to justify a disparate impact claim based upon criminal history and credit checks. To require less, would be to condemn the use of common sense, and this is simply not what the laws of this country require."

Thomas Sowell has argued that assuming that disparities in outcomes are caused by discrimination is a logical fallacy. [20]

Statistical criticism of disparate impact

Another avenue of criticism of disparate impact rests on a mathematical analysis of:

  1. The threshold effect size of disparities to assume discrimination has occurred with the commonly used 80% threshold arguably leading to a large number of false positives
  2. If correction for confounding variables in a regression model took place and was applied appropriately

Effect size threshold

We are able to convert between measures of effect size using the relationships: [21] [22]

where is Cohen's d, is the odds ratio, is the Pearson correlation, and is the standard normal cumulative distribution function. The coefficient of determination is the square of the correlation. The term is the probability that a member of group obtains a score greater than a member of group . For a set of odds ratios, which is often used to determine if there is a disparate impact, [23] we may convert between effect sizes as such:

Relationship of metrics
Odds ratioCorrelationCohen's d
10000.50
1.20.0500.0030.1010.528
1.40.0920.0090.1860.552
1.60.1280.0170.2590.573
1.80.1600.0260.3240.591
20.1880.0350.3820.607
2.50.2450.0600.5050.640
30.2900.0840.6060.666
40.3570.1270.7640.706
50.4060.1640.8870.735
100.5360.2871.2690.815
200.6370.4051.6520.879
500.7330.5382.1570.936

Using these different measures of effect size, we are able to quantitatively determine the size of a gap based on several common interpretations. Notably, we may interpret the effect size as:

If we take the 80% rule to apply via the odds ratio, this implies that the threshold odds ratio for assuming discrimination is 1.25 – the other measures of effect size are therefore:

This implies that discrimination is presumed to exist if 0.4% of the variation in outcomes is explained and there is a 0.123 standard deviation difference between two groups. Both of these quantities are small enough that there are significant concerns about finding false positive instances of discrimination at an unacceptable level.

A greater threshold for presuming that disparities are due to discrimination, such as an odds ratio of 2–3, is less likely to have false positives.

Confounding and regression analysis

A second concern of using disparate impact is that disparities may be affected by underlying variables, called confounders, which would imply that the disparity is due to underlying differences that are not predicated on group membership. For example, all of the following disparities exist:

It is possible that all of these disparities are due to discrimination, but regression analysis allows us to account for variables that may explain differences. For example, suppose that we are attempting to investigate whether or not a pay disparity between two groups is due to discrimination. Then we may construct a multiple regression model for pay as:

where the are the confounding variables, is a dichotomous variable indicating group membership, and is a normally distributed random variable. After correction for the potentially confounding variables in a regression model, we should be able to tell if there is still an impact of group membership on the quantity of interest. If we have not omitted any important confounding variables and not engaged in p-hacking, then a statistically significant suggests a very good possibility of positive or negative discrimination.

Circling back to our three examples, there are plausible explanations for all of the disparities that were listed:

  • Firefighters should be physically strong, and women tend to not to be as strong as men
  • Among Uber drivers, a 7% pay gap between men and women was explained by three factors: [26] [27]
    • Where and when rides originate from (i.e., time and location)
    • Amount of driver experience
    • Driving speed
  • While differences in use of less-than-deadly force still exist after accounting for confounding variables, there does not appear to be any relationship between race and deadly force once confounders are taken into account. [28]

As can be seen from these examples, disparities do not necessarily imply discrimination. It is important to account for all relevant variables when investigating whether or not discrimination exists between two or more groups.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Equal Employment Opportunity Commission</span> United States government agency enforcing civil rights laws against workplace discrimination

The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC) is a federal agency that was established via the Civil Rights Act of 1964 to administer and enforce civil rights laws against workplace discrimination. The EEOC investigates discrimination complaints based on an individual's race, color, national origin, religion, sex, age, disability, genetic information, and retaliation for participating in a discrimination complaint proceeding and/or opposing a discriminatory practice.

Griggs v. Duke Power Co., 401 U.S. 424 (1971), was a court case argued before the Supreme Court of the United States on December 14, 1970. It concerned employment discrimination and the disparate impact theory, and was decided on March 8, 1971. It is generally considered the first case of its type.

A large body of research indicates that IQ and similar measures vary between individuals and between certain groups, and that they correlate with socially important outcomes such as educational achievement, employment, crime, poverty and socioeconomic status.

Washington v. Davis, 426 U.S. 229 (1976), was a United States Supreme Court case that established that laws that have a racially discriminatory effect but were not adopted to advance a racially discriminatory purpose are valid under the U.S. Constitution.

Employment discrimination is a form of illegal discrimination in the workplace based on legally protected characteristics. In the U.S., federal anti-discrimination law prohibits discrimination by employers against employees based on age, race, gender, sex, religion, national origin, and physical or mental disability. State and local laws often protect additional characteristics such as marital status, veteran status and caregiver/familial status. Earnings differentials or occupational differentiation—where differences in pay come from differences in qualifications or responsibilities—should not be confused with employment discrimination. Discrimination can be intended and involve disparate treatment of a group or be unintended, yet create disparate impact for a group.

Employment discrimination law in the United States derives from the common law, and is codified in numerous state, federal, and local laws. These laws prohibit discrimination based on certain characteristics or "protected categories". The United States Constitution also prohibits discrimination by federal and state governments against their public employees. Discrimination in the private sector is not directly constrained by the Constitution, but has become subject to a growing body of federal and state law, including the Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Federal law prohibits discrimination in a number of areas, including recruiting, hiring, job evaluations, promotion policies, training, compensation and disciplinary action. State laws often extend protection to additional categories or employers.

Mortgage discrimination or mortgage lending discrimination is the practice of banks, governments or other lending institutions denying loans to one or more groups of people primarily on the basis of race, ethnic origin, sex or religion.

McDonnell Douglas Corp. v. Green, 411 U.S. 792 (1973), is a US employment law case by the United States Supreme Court regarding the burdens and nature of proof in proving a Title VII case and the order in which plaintiffs and defendants present proof. It was the seminal case in the McDonnell Douglas burden-shifting framework.

Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co., 550 U.S. 618 (2007), is an employment discrimination decision of the Supreme Court of the United States. Employers cannot be sued under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 over race or gender pay discrimination if the claims are based on decisions made by the employer 180 days ago or more. Justice Alito held for the five-justice majority that each paycheck received did not constitute a discrete discriminatory act, even if it was affected by a prior decision outside the time limit. Ledbetter's claim of the “paycheck accrual rule” was rejected. The decision did not prevent plaintiffs from suing under other laws, like the Equal Pay Act, which has a three-year deadline for most sex discrimination claims, or 42 U.S.C. 1981, which has a four-year deadline for suing over race discrimination.

Personnel Administrator of Massachusetts v. Feeney, 442 U.S. 256 (1979), was a case heard by the Supreme Court of the United States. The decision upheld the constitutionality of a state law, giving hiring preference to veterans over nonveterans.

Ricci v. DeStefano, 557 U.S. 557 (2009), is a United States labor law case of the United States Supreme Court on unlawful discrimination through disparate impact under the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

Watson v. Fort Worth Bank & Trust, 487 U.S. 977 (1988), is a United States Supreme Court case on United States labor law, concerning proof of disparate treatment under the Civil Rights Act of 1964.

<i>Bushey v. New York State Civil Service Commission</i> American legal case

Bushey v. New York State Civil Serv. Comm'n, 733 F.2d 220, 224 is a US labor law case from the Second Circuit applying the test for affirmative action from United Steelworkers v. Weber.

Disparate treatment is one kind of unlawful discrimination in US labor law. In the United States, it means unequal behavior toward someone because of a protected characteristic under Title VII of the United States Civil Rights Act. This contrasts with disparate impact, where an employer applies a neutral rule that treats everyone equally in form, but has a disadvantageous effect on some people of a protected characteristic compared to others.

Employment discrimination against persons with criminal records in the United States has been illegal since enactment of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Employers retain the right to lawfully consider an applicant's or employee's criminal conviction(s) for employment purposes e.g., hiring, retention, promotion, benefits, and delegated duties.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paycheck Fairness Act</span> Proposed law to address the gender pay gap

The Paycheck Fairness Act is a proposed United States labor law that would add procedural protections to the Equal Pay Act of 1963 and the Fair Labor Standards Act as part of an effort to address the gender pay gap in the United States. A Census Bureau report published in 2008 stated that women's median annual earnings were 77.5% of men's earnings. Recently this has narrowed, as by 2018, this was estimated to have decreased to women earning 80-85% of men's earnings. One study suggests that when the data is controlled for certain variables, the residual gap is around 5-7%; the same study concludes that the residual is because "hours of work in many occupations are worth more when given at particular moments and when the hours are more continuous. That is, in many occupations, earnings have a nonlinear relationship with respect to hours."

Housing discrimination in the United States refers to the historical and current barriers, policies, and biases that prevent equitable access to housing. Housing discrimination became more pronounced after the abolition of slavery in 1865, typically as part of Jim Crow laws that enforced racial segregation. The federal government didn't begin to take action against these laws until 1917, when the Supreme Court struck down ordinances prohibiting blacks from occupying or owning buildings in majority-white neighborhoods in Buchanan v. Warley. However, the federal government as well as local governments continued to be directly responsible for housing discrimination through redlining and race-restricted covenants until the Civil Rights Act of 1968.

R (Seymour-Smith) v Secretary of State for Employment [2000] UKHL 12 and (1999) C-167/97 is a landmark case in United Kingdom labour law and European labour law on the qualifying period of work before an employee accrues unfair dismissal rights. It was held by the House of Lords and the European Court of Justice that a two-year qualifying period had a disparate impact on women given that significantly fewer women worked long enough to be protected by the unfair dismissal law, but that the government could, at that point in the 1990s, succeed in an objective justification of increasing recruitment by employers.

Family Responsibilities Discrimination (FRD), also known as caregiver discrimination, is a form of employment discrimination toward workers who have caregiving responsibilities. Some examples of caregiver discrimination include changing an employee's schedule to conflict with their caregiving responsibilities, refusing to promote an employee, or refusing to hire an applicant.

Albemarle Paper Co. v. Moody, 422 US 405 (1975), is a United States Supreme Court case in which the court held that Title VII disparate impact plaintiffs do not need to prove bad faith to be entitled to backpay. It also expanded on the holding from Griggs v. Duke Power that employment tests must be sufficiently job-related.

References

  1. 1 2 EEOC v. Sambo's of Georgia, Inc., 530 F. Supp. 86, 92 (N.D. Ga. 1981)
  2. Fick, Barbara J. (1997). The American Bar Association guide to workplace law : everything you need to know about your rights as an employee or employer (1st ed.). New York: Times Books. p. 21. ISBN   9780812929287.
  3. E.g. Griggs v. Duke Power Co., 401 U.S. 424, 91 S. Ct. 849, 28 L. Ed. 2d 158 (1977)
  4. Alexander v. Sandoval, 532 U.S. 275 (2001), https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/99-1908.ZS.html
  5. "Civil Rights Division Home Page". Archived from the original on July 16, 2015. Retrieved August 12, 2015.
  6. Smith v. City of Jackson, Mississippi, 544 U.S. 228 (2005), https://www.law.cornell.edu/supct/html/03-1160.ZS.html
  7. 1 2 "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 24, 2017. Retrieved June 27, 2017.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. "Uniform guidelines on employee selection procedures". uniformguidelines.com. Retrieved November 14, 2007. Adverse impact. A substantially different rate of selection in hiring, promotion, or other employment decision which works to the disadvantage of members of a race, sex, or ethnic group. See section 4 of these guidelines.
  9. Lawrence Ph.D., Amie (May 31, 2011). "The Big AI". Select International, Inc. . Retrieved May 31, 2011.
  10. Dan Biddle (2006). Adverse Impact And Test Validation: A Practitioner's Guide to Valid And Defensible Employment Testing. Aldershot, Hants, England: Gower Technical Press. pp. 2–5. ISBN   0-566-08778-2.
  11. "May 16, 2007 Meeting – Employment Testing and Screening". eeoc.gov. May 16, 2007.
  12. "Adverse impact and the "four-fifths rule"". uniformguidelines.com. Retrieved November 14, 2007. Smaller differences in selection rate may nevertheless constitute adverse impact, where they are significant in both statistical and practical terms
  13. Herman Aguinis; Cascio, Wayne F. (2005). Applied Psychology in Human Resource Management (6th ed.). Englewood Cliffs, N.J: Prentice Hall. ISBN   0-13-148410-9.
  14. 1964/1991 Civil Rights Act, Section 2000e-2[k] [1] [A]
  15. "HUDNo.13-022". portal.hud.gov. Archived from the original on February 17, 2013.
  16. "The Mount Holly Vote". Wall Street Journal. November 13, 2013.
  17. Adam Liptak (November 14, 2013). "Fair-Housing Case Is Settled Before It Reaches Supreme Court". New York Times.
  18. 1 2 "Texas Dept. of Housing and Community Affairs v. Inclusive Communities Project, Inc" (PDF). 576. 2015.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  19. "EEOC v. Freeman.09cv2573. Memo Opinion-RWT Edits of 8.5.13" (PDF). Archived from the original on September 3, 2013.
  20. Sowell, Thomas (2018). Discrimination and Disparities. New York, NY: Basic Books. ISBN   9781541645639.
  21. "Converting Among Effect Sizes" (PDF).
  22. Ruscio, John (2008). "A Probability-Based Measure of Effect Size: Robustness to Base Rates and Other Factors". Psychological Methods. 13 (1): 19–30. doi:10.1037/1082-989X.13.1.19. PMID   18331151. S2CID   15311097.
  23. Finkelstein, Michael O.; Levin, Bruce (2015). Statistics for Lawyers. Statistics for Social and Behavioral Sciences (3 ed.). New York, NY: Springer. pp. 38–41. ISBN   9781441959843.
  24. Flynn, Kevin (February 3, 2000). "Despite Recruiting, Few Women Do Well in Firefighter Tests". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved August 11, 2019.
  25. Gonen, Yoav; Short, Aaron (December 11, 2014). "FDNY drops physical test requirement amid low female hiring rate". New York Post. Retrieved August 11, 2019.
  26. Cook, Cody; Diamond, Rebecca; Hall, Jonathan; List, John A.; Oyer, Paul. "The Gender Earnings Gap in the Gig Economy: Evidence from over a Million Rideshare Drivers" (PDF).
  27. "The gender pay gap for Uber drivers can be completely explained by three factors, and not discrimination". AEI. April 2, 2019. Retrieved August 11, 2019.
  28. Fryer, Jr, Roland G (2016). "An Empirical Analysis of Racial Differences in Police Use of Force". NBER Working Paper No. 22399. doi: 10.3386/w22399 .{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)