Graham Allison | |
---|---|
Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs | |
In office June 1, 1995 –July 1, 2017 | |
Succeeded by | Ash Carter |
Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans | |
In office August 6,1993 –March 15,1994 | |
President | Bill Clinton |
Dean of the John F. Kennedy School of Government | |
In office June 1,1977 –May 30,1989 | |
Preceded by | Don K. Price |
Succeeded by | Robert D. Putnam |
Personal details | |
Born | Graham Tillett Allison Jr. March 23,1940 Charlotte,North Carolina,U.S. |
Spouse | Liz Allison |
Education | Harvard University (BA,PhD) Hertford College,Oxford (BA,MA) |
Graham Tillett Allison Jr. (born March 23,1940) is an American political scientist and the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. [1] He is known for his contributions in the late 1960s and early 1970s to the bureaucratic analysis of decision making,especially during times of crisis. His book Remaking Foreign Policy:The Organizational Connection,co-written with Peter L. Szanton,was published in 1976 and influenced the foreign policy of the Carter administration. Since the 1970s,Allison has also been a leading analyst of U.S. national security and defense policy,with a special interest in nuclear weapons and terrorism. [2]
Allison is from Charlotte,North Carolina,and graduated from Myers Park High School in 1958. [3] He attended Davidson College for two years,then transferred to Harvard University from which he graduated in 1962 with a B.A. degree. Allison then completed B.A. and M.A. in philosophy,politics and economics at Oxford University as a Marshall Scholar in 1964 and returned to Harvard to earn a Ph.D. in political science in 1968,where Henry Kissinger was one of his professors. [4]
Allison has spent his entire academic career at Harvard,as an assistant professor (1968),associate professor (1970),then full professor (1972) in the department of government on the strength of his book Essence of Decision:Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971),in which he developed two new theoretical paradigms –an organizational process model and a bureaucratic politics model –to compete with the then-prevalent approach of understanding foreign policy decision-making using a rational actor model. Essence of Decision revolutionized the study of decision-making in political science and beyond. [5]
From 1977 to 1989,Allison was dean of the Harvard Kennedy School at Harvard University. Over the course of his tenure as dean,Harvard Kennedy School increased in size by 400% and its endowment by 700%.
He was associated with the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans from 1993 to 1994,where he coordinated strategy and policy towards the states of the former Soviet Union. President Bill Clinton awarded Allison the Department of Defense Medal for Distinguished Public Service,for "reshaping relations with Russia,Ukraine,Belarus,and Kazakhstan to reduce the former Soviet nuclear arsenal".
Allison directed the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs from 1995 until 2017,when he was succeeded by former U.S. Secretary of Defense Ash Carter. [6]
In a 2012 Financial Times article titled "Thucydides’s trap has been sprung in the Pacific",Allison coined the term the Thucydides Trap to argue for the possibility of a war between the United States and China. [7] Allison later defined as the Trap as a historical pattern where "when one great power threatens to displace another,war is almost always the result," [8] and in 2017 expanded his argument about a future conflict into a full-length book,Destined for War. The theory is based on the History of the Peloponnesian War ,in which Thucydides wrote,"What made war inevitable was the growth of Athenian power and the fear which this caused in Sparta." [9] Allison asserts that circumstances at the start of World War I (involving British fears about Germany),the War of the Spanish Succession,and the Thirty Years' War (involving French insecurity about the Habsburg empires of Spain and Austria) exhibit the trap. [10] The term appeared in a paid opinion advertisement in The New York Times on April 6,2017,on the occasion of U.S. President Donald Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping,which stated,"Both major players in the region share a moral obligation to steer away from Thucydides's Trap." [11] Both Allison's conception of the Thucydides Trap and its applicability to U.S.-Chinese relations have encountered heavy scholarly criticism. [12] [13] [14] In March 2019,the Journal of Chinese Political Science dedicated a special issue to the topic, [15] suggesting power transition narratives do appear to matter with regard to domestic perception. [16]
Allison remains Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard. [17]
Allison has also been a fellow of the Center for Advanced Studies (1973–74);member of the visiting committee on foreign policy studies at the Brookings Institution (1972–77);and a member of the Trilateral Commission (1974–84 and 2018). [18] He was among those mentioned to succeed David Rockefeller as President of the Council on Foreign Relations. In 1979 Allison received an honorary doctorate from the Faculty of Social Sciences at Uppsala University,Sweden. [19]
In 2009 he was awarded the NAS Award for Behavior Research Relevant to the Prevention of Nuclear War from the National Academy of Sciences. [20]
Allison has also been a member of the Board of Trustees for the lobbying group USACC (United States-Azerbaijan Chamber of Commerce). [21]
Allison is a Fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
Allison has been heavily involved in U.S. defense policy since working as an advisor and consultant to the Pentagon in the 1960s,and has been consultant for the RAND Corporation. He has been a member of the Secretary of Defense's Defense Policy Board from 1985. He was a special advisor to Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger for three years in the second term of office of Ronald Reagan. [22]
From 2012 to 2013, the Belfer Center (through the Wikimedia Foundation) paid an editor to cite Allison's scholarly writings in various articles. Funding for the position came from the Stanton Foundation, for which Graham Allison's wife, Liz Allison, was one of two trustees. The editor also made "supposedly problematic edits" based heavily on work of other scholars affiliated with the Belfer Center. [25]
The Cuban Missile Crisis, also known as the October Crisis in Cuba, or the Caribbean Crisis, was a 13-day confrontation between the governments of the United States and the Soviet Union, when American deployments of nuclear missiles in Italy and Turkey were matched by Soviet deployments of nuclear missiles in Cuba. The crisis lasted from 16 to 28 October 1962. The confrontation is widely considered the closest the Cold War came to escalating into full-scale nuclear war.
Henry Alfred Kissinger was an American diplomat and political scientist who served as the United States secretary of state from 1973 to 1977 and national security advisor from 1969 to 1975, in the presidential administrations of Richard Nixon and Gerald Ford.
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Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzeziński, known as Zbig, was a Polish-American diplomat and political scientist. He served as a counselor to Lyndon B. Johnson from 1966 to 1968 and was Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor from 1977 to 1981. As a scholar, Brzezinski belonged to the realist school of international relations, standing in the geopolitical tradition of Halford Mackinder and Nicholas J. Spykman, while elements of liberal idealism have also been identified in his outlook. Brzezinski was the primary organizer of The Trilateral Commission.
The Trilateral Commission is a nongovernmental international organization aimed at fostering closer cooperation between Japan, Western Europe and North America. It was founded in July 1973, principally by American banker and philanthropist David Rockefeller, an internationalist who sought to address the challenges posed by the growing economic and political interdependence between the U.S. and its allies in North America, Western Europe, and Japan. The leadership of the organization has since focused on returning to "our roots as a group of countries sharing common values and a commitment to the rule of law, open economies and societies, and democratic principles".
Nuclear terrorism refers to any person or persons detonating a nuclear weapon as an act of terrorism. Some definitions of nuclear terrorism include the sabotage of a nuclear facility and/or the detonation of a radiological device, colloquially termed a dirty bomb, but consensus is lacking. In legal terms, nuclear terrorism is an offense committed if a person unlawfully and intentionally "uses in any way radioactive material … with the intent to cause death or serious bodily injury; or with the intent to cause substantial damage to property or to the environment; or with the intent to compel a natural or legal person, an international organization or a State to do or refrain from doing an act", according to the 2005 United Nations International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism.
Brinkmanship or brinksmanship is the practice of trying to achieve an advantageous outcome by pushing dangerous events to the brink of active conflict. The maneuver of pushing a situation with the opponent to the brink succeeds by forcing the opponent to back down and make concessions rather than risk engaging in a conflict that would no longer be beneficial to either side. That might be achieved through diplomatic maneuvers, by creating the impression that one is willing to use extreme methods rather than concede. The tactic occurs in international politics, foreign policy, labor relations, contemporary military strategy, terrorism, and high-stakes litigation.
Détente is the relaxation of strained relations, especially political ones, through verbal communication. The diplomacy term originates from around 1912, when France and Germany tried unsuccessfully to reduce tensions.
Joseph Samuel Nye Jr. is an American political scientist. He and Robert Keohane co-founded the international relations theory of neoliberalism, which they developed in their 1977 book Power and Interdependence. Together with Keohane, he developed the concepts of asymmetrical and complex interdependence. They also explored transnational relations and world politics in an edited volume in the 1970s. More recently, he pioneered the theory of soft power. His notion of "smart power" became popular with the use of this phrase by members of the Clinton Administration and the Obama Administration.
Ashton Baldwin Carter was an American government official and academic who served as the 25th United States secretary of defense from February 2015 to January 2017. He later served as director of the Belfer Center for Science & International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School.
Essence of Decision: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis is book by political scientist Graham T. Allison analyzing the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. Allison used the crisis as a case study for future studies into governmental decision-making. The book became the founding study of the John F. Kennedy School of Government, and in doing so revolutionized the field of international relations.
Roswell Leavitt Gilpatric was a New York City corporate attorney and government official who served as Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1961–64, when he played a pivotal role in the high-stake strategies of the Cuban Missile Crisis, advising President John F. Kennedy as well as Robert McNamara and McGeorge Bundy on dealing with the Soviet nuclear missile threat. Gilpatric later served as Chairman of the Task Force on Nuclear Proliferation in 1964.
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The Executive Committee of the National Security Council was a body of United States government officials that convened to advise President John F. Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. It was composed of the regular members of the National Security Council, along with other men whose advice the President deemed useful during the crisis. EXCOMM was formally established by National Security Action Memorandum 196 on October 22, 1962. It was made up of twelve full members in addition to the president. Advisers frequently sat in on the meetings, which were held in the Cabinet Room of the White House's West Wing and secretly recorded by tape machines activated by Kennedy. None of the other committee members knew the meetings were being recorded, save probably the president's brother, Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy.
The Robert and Renée Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, also known as the Belfer Center, is a research center located at the Harvard Kennedy School at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts, in the United States.
The Thucydides Trap, or Thucydides' Trap, is a term popularized by American political scientist Graham T. Allison to describe an apparent tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. The term exploded in popularity in 2015 and primarily applies to analysis of China–United States relations.
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