Moshupa-Manyana

Moshupa-Manyana
Single-member constituency for the National Assembly
District	Southern District
Population	52,128
Major settlements	Moshupa
Area	2,832 km2
Current constituency
Created	1965
Party	BDP
MP	Karabo Gare
Margin of victory	6,865 (30.4 pp)

Moshupa-Manyana is a constituency in Botswana represented in the National Assembly of Botswana by Karabo Gare, a Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) MP and chairman of the BDP since 2018.

Constituency profile

Moshupa-Manyana is a largely rural constituency situated in Botswana's south-eastern hardveld. The constituency's terrain is dotted with low granite, undulating koppies and seasonal river valleys. ^{[1] [2]} Most households practise mixed farming (goats, poultry and rain-fed crops) or commute to Kanye, the Jwaneng diamond mine, or Gaborone for work.

The seat, known as Moshupa until 2014, has existed in one form or another since the country's inaugural general election in 1965, making it one of Botswana's longest-standing constituencies.

Moshupa-Manyana is a stronghold of the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP).

It is one of only two existing constituencies in Botswana that have never returned a Member of Parliament from more than one party, the other being neighbouring Thamaga-Kumakwane. In every election since 1965, the BDP has always polled above 50% of the popular vote, the only constituency in the country where the BDP has done so.

Political life in the constituency has been closely associated with the Masisi family, one of Botswana's most prominent political families. ^{[3] [4]} Diplomat, cabinet minister and career politician Edison Masisi served as MP for three decades (1965–1999) and his son, future president Mokgweetsi Masisi, held the seat from 2009 until he assumed the presidency in 2018.

The elevation of Mokgweetsi Masisi to the presidency produced a pronounced favourite son effect: at the 2019 election the BDP vote share surged to 85 percent (up from 54 percent in 2014) which made Moshupa-Manyana the safest seat in the country, with the BDP winning the seat by a majority of 70 percentage points. This marked the first time in Botswana's electoral history that the safest constituency was not one of the constituencies anchored around the Ngwato capital of Serowe.

The 2019 landslide was also brought about due to a wider realignment triggered by President Masisi's public falling-out with former president and Ngwato Kgosi (paramount chief) Ian Khama, which led to a dramatic swing against the BDP in Khama's northern heartland but equally increased support for the party across much of the south. ^{[5] [6] [7]}

Despite a strong nationwide swing against the BDP in 2024—when the party lost 34 of the 38 constituencies it had won in 2019—Moshupa-Manyana remained in BDP hands as its 2019 majority proved too insurmountable to overcome. The seat, along with Thamaga-Kumakwane, was one of only two constituencies where the BDP won with an outright majority of the vote at that election.

The largely rural constituency encompasses the following localities: ^[8]

1. Moshupa
2. Manyana
3. Lotlhakane West
4. Ralekgetho
5. Pitseng
6. Seherelela
7. Sesung
8. Bikwe
9. Mogonye
10. Lekgolobotlo
11. Ranaka
12. Ntlhantlhe
13. Kgomokasitwa
14. Magotlhwane

Members of Parliament

Key:  BDP

Election	Winner
1965 election		Edison Masisi
1969 election
1974 election
1979 election
1984 election
1989 election
1994 election
1999 election		Maitlhoko Mooka
2004 election
2009 election		Mokgweetsi Masisi
2014 election
2018 by-election		Karabo Gare
2019 election
2024 election

Election results

2024 election

General election 2024: Moshupa-Manyana ^[9]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Karabo Gare	13,422	59.50	−25.32
	UDC	Moses Loeto	6,557	29.07	+13.89
	BCP	Pako Monageng	2,578	11.43	N/A
Margin of victory			6,865	30.43	−39.21
Total valid votes			22,557	98.85	−0.42
Rejected ballots			262	1.15	+0.42
Turnout			22,819	81.90	−5.31
Registered electors			27,863
	BDP hold		Swing	−19.61

2019 election

General election 2019: Moshupa-Manyana ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Karabo Gare	13,924	84.82	+30.73
	UDC	Ngaka Monagen	2,492	15.18	−30.73
Margin of victory			11,432	69.64	+41.13
Total valid votes			16,416	99.27	+3.58
Rejected ballots			120	0.73	−3.58
Turnout			16,536	87.21	+1.00
Registered electors			18,962
	BDP hold		Swing	+30.73

2018 by-election

By-election 2018: Moshupa-Manyana ^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Karabo Gare	4,093	72.79	+18.70
	UDC	Jonathan Sethono	1,530	27.21	−18.70
Margin of victory			2,563	45.58	+17.07
Total valid votes			5,623	98.24	+2.55
Rejected ballots			101	1.76	−2.55
Turnout			5,724	~38.49	~−47.72
	BDP hold		Swing	+18.70

Note: UDC vote share is compared to the total vote share of the UDC and BCP in 2014.

2014 election

General election 2014: Moshupa-Manyana ^[12]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Mokgweetsi Masisi	6,831	54.09	−14.86
	UDC	Ngaka Monagen	3,231	25.58	+12.39
	BCP	Benny Stegling	2,567	20.33	+3.90
Margin of victory			3,600	28.51	−24.01
Total valid votes			12,629	95.69	−1.77
Rejected ballots			192	4.31	+1.77
Turnout			12,821	86.21	+9.88
Registered electors			14,872
	BDP hold		Swing	−13.63

Note: UDC vote share is compared to the vote share of the BNF in 2009.

2009 election

General election 2009: Moshupa ^[13]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Mokgweetsi Masisi	6,374	68.95	+2.14
	BCP	Sethibe Sethibe	1,519	16.43	−1.36
	BNF	Abraham Motlogelwa	1,219	13.19	−2.21
	Independent	Simon Ramontsho	72	0.78	N/A
	Independent	Tlhomamiso Kebaswele	60	0.65	N/A
Margin of victory			4,855	52.52	+3.50
Total valid votes			9,244	97.46	−0.22
Rejected ballots			241	2.54	+0.22
Turnout			9,485	76.33	−1.79
Registered electors			12,426
	BDP hold		Swing	+1.75

2004 election

General election 2004: Moshupa ^[14]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Maitlhoko Mooka	4,594	66.81	+15.00
	BCP	Benny Stegling	1,223	17.79	+13.60
	BNF	Boikhutso Disele	1,059	15.40	−14.94
Margin of victory			3,371	49.02	+27.55
Total valid votes			6,876	97.68	+2.01
Rejected ballots			163	2.14	−2.01
Turnout			7,039	78.12	−2.10
Registered electors			9,011
	BDP hold		Swing	+14.30

1999 election

General election 1999: Moshupa ^[15]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Maitlhoko Mooka	4,157	51.81	−12.27
	BNF	Boikhutso Disele	2,434	30.34	−1.39
	Independent	Tlhomamiso Kebaswele	909	11.33	N/A
	BCP	O. Mosielele	345	4.30	N/A
	BAM	Gofetile Gare	178	2.22	N/A
Margin of victory			1,723	21.47	−10.88
Total valid votes			8,023	95.67	N/A
Rejected ballots			363	4.33	N/A
Turnout			8,386	80.22	−3.43
Registered electors			10,454
	BDP hold		Swing	−5.44

1994 election

General election 1994: Moshupa ^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	4,814	64.08	−7.13
	BNF	J.M. Kwelagobe	2,384	31.73	+2.94
	BIP	Gofetile Gare	315	4.19	N/A
Margin of victory			2,430	32.35	−10.07
Turnout			7,513	83.65	+16.03
Registered electors			8,982
	BDP hold		Swing	−5.04

1989 election

General election 1989: Moshupa ^[16]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	4,469	71.21	+7.24
	BNF	Gofetile Gare	1,807	28.79	−7.24
Margin of victory			2,662	42.42	+14.48
Turnout			6,276	67.62	−13.08
Registered electors			9,281
	BDP hold		Swing	+7.24

1984 election

General election 1984: Moshupa

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	4,745	63.97	−3.77
	BNF	Gofetile Gare	2,672	36.03	+3.77
Margin of victory			2,073	27.94	−7.54
Turnout			7,417	80.70	+13.57
Registered electors			9,191
	BDP hold		Swing	−3.77

1979 election

General election 1979: Moshupa ^[17]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	3,800	67.74	−7.81
	BNF	Gofetile Gare	1,810	32.26	+7.81
Margin of victory			1,990	35.48	−15.62
Turnout			5,610	67.13	+19.06
Registered electors			8,357
	BDP hold		Swing	−7.81

1974 election

General election 1974: Moshupa ^[18]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	2,800	75.55
	BNF	Gofetile Gare	906	24.45
Margin of victory			1,894	51.10
Turnout			3,706	48.07
Registered electors			7,709
	BDP hold

1969 election

General election 1969: Moshupa ^[19]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	Walkover	N/A	N/A
	BDP hold

1965 election

General election 1965: Moshupa ^[20]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	BDP	Edison Masisi	4,463	95.79
	BIP	J. Kalane	106	2.28
	BPP	M. Mosielele	90	1.93
Margin of victory			4,357	93.51
Turnout			4,659	N/A
Registered electors			N/A
	BDP win (new seat)

References

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2. Ndala Marumo, Mompoloki; Lebitsa, Gabatsoswe; Malumbela, Goitseone (15 September 2024). "Geotechnical Characterization of the Manyana Black Cotton Soils in Botswana" . Journal of Civil Engineering and Urbanism. 14 (3S): 318–324. doi:10.54203/jceu.2024.35.
3. "Who is Botswana's new President Mokgweetsi Masisi?". The Mail & Guardian. 2018-04-03. Retrieved 2025-05-15.
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8. 2022 DELIMITATION COMMISSION REPORT (PDF). 2022.
9. "Gare retains Moshupa Manyana" . Retrieved 1 November 2024.
10. Report to the Minister for Presidential Affairs, Governance and Public Administration on the 2019 General Elections (PDF). Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). 2020.
11. "Gare wins MoshupaManyana by-election". DailyNews. 17 June 2018.
12. Independent Electoral Commission - Botswana National Assembly, 2014
13. Report To The Minister Of Presidential Affairs And Public Administration On The 2009 General Elections (PDF). Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).
14. BOTSWANA GENERAL ELECTIONS 30th OCTOBER 2004 POLLING RESULTS (PDF). Independent Electoral Commission (IEC).
15. Independent Electoral Commission - Botswana National Assembly, 1999
16. Results by constituency
17. Democracy in the face of a weak Opposition in Botswana, Brian T. Mokopakgosi & Mpho G. Molomo (2000)
18. Report to the Minister of State on the general elections, 1974 (PDF). Supervisor of Elections. 1974.
19. "Report on the General Elections 1969" (PDF). 1969.
20. Gossett, Charles W.; Kebapetse, Lotshwao (21 April 2013). "Report on the 1965 General Election and the 1966 Local Government Election". Botswana Notes & Records. 41. Rochester, NY: Social Science Research Network (published 2009): 53. SSRN   2254423 . Retrieved 2024-01-27.