2019 Afghan presidential election

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2019 Afghan presidential election
Flag of Afghanistan (2013-2021).svg
  2014 28 September 2019
  Aschraf Ghani MSC 2017 2 (cropped modified).jpg 2017 Halifax International Security Forum (37618951885) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Ashraf Ghani Abdullah Abdullah
Party Independent National Coalition
Running mate Amrullah Saleh
Sarwar Danish [1] [2]
Enayatullah Babur Farahmand
Asadullah Sadati [1] [2]
Popular vote923,592720,841
Percentage50.64%39.52%

2019 Afghanistan presidential election.svg
Results by province
Ghani:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     90-100%
Abdullah:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

President before election

Ashraf Ghani
Independent

Elected President

Ashraf Ghani
Independent

Presidential elections were held in Afghanistan on 28 September 2019. [3] According to preliminary results, which runner-up Abdullah Abdullah appealed against, incumbent Ashraf Ghani was re-elected with 923,592 votes, 50.64% of the vote. After delays over disputed votes, Ghani was declared the winner in the final results on 18 February 2020. [4] Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results and moved to set up his own parallel government and separate inauguration. [5] However, Ghani was officially sworn in for a second term on 9 March 2020. [6] [7] The ensuing political crisis was not resolved until 16 May 2020, when Ghani and Abdullah signed a power-sharing deal in which Ghani would remain president and Abdullah would lead the peace talks with the Taliban when they start. [8] Voter turnout was less than 20%. [9]

Contents

Background

The elections were originally scheduled for 20 April, but the Independent Election Commission announced on 26 December 2018 that they would be postponed until 20 July, [10] [11] in order to resolve problems that became apparent during the October 2018 parliamentary elections. The additional time will be used to verify voter lists and train election workers on the new biometric identification system. On 20 March 2019, the IEC once again delayed the election, this time by two months from 20 July to 28 September. A spokesman blamed the delay on changes in election laws along with management and technical problems − the presidential vote then coincided with local council votes and delayed parliamentary elections in Ghazni Province. [12]

Electoral system

Presidential elections in Afghanistan are conducted using a two-round system. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the first round, a second round is held featuring the top two candidates from the first round. [13]

Campaign

One of the leading candidates, Mohammad Hanif Atmar, suspended his campaign in August 2019. Atmar's campaign said that the suspension was due to the poor security situation and the ongoing peace process. [14] The Taliban carried out attacks to disrupt the campaign. On 17 September 2019, a suicide bomber attacked the campaign rally of President Ashraf Ghani, killing 26 people and wounding 42. Less than an hour later, the Taliban carried out another suicide bomb attack near the US Embassy and the Afghan Defense Ministry, killing 22 people and wounding around 38. [15]

Voting

On 28 September 2019, several people headed to cast their vote despite the direct threats to the civilians from the Taliban. However, the turnout was a historical low, where only around 1.6 million showed up from the 9.7 million registered voters. [16] Despite low turnout, voting during election day was described by Reuters as being held in a "relative calm" situation, with 3 deaths and 37 injuries occurring due to "small-scale" Taliban attacks. [17] Al Jazeera also noted that in spite of the low voter turnout, violence was only "sporadic." [13] However, a tally held by The New York Times , which was based on conversations with local officials, found a death toll of "at least 30 security personnel and 10 civilians", and a number of "at least 40 security forces and 150 civilians" injured—which, according to the Times, was "much higher than the official reports, but in line with the average daily toll of the country’s long-running war." [18] Reports of low casualties were also backed by The Washington Post and Arab News. [19] [20] Arab News journalist Sayed Salahuddin even stated that "the death toll was lower than on previous election days" and that conversations with Afghan residents suggested that "there was less violence than at last year’s parliamentary election." [19] Salahuddin also stated that "at some polling centers, security forces outnumbered voters." [19]

The election commission also resorted to biometric voter verification machines for the first time, which took the fingerprints and picture of every voter and recorded the time they cast their ballot. The technical system was opted to combat the growing fraudulent instances during elections in Afghanistan. [21]

Violence, Taliban threats, and widespread allegations of mismanagement and abuse marred the election. Turnout on election day was low. [22]

Candidates

There were 18 presidential candidates: [23] [24]

NameParty affiliationNotes
Ashraf Ghani Incumbent President
Abdullah Abdullah National Coalition of Afghanistan Incumbent Chief Executive
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin Former Prime Minister, former warlord, and current leader of Hezb-e Islami
Rahmatullah Nabil Former Head of the National Directorate of Security
Sayed Noorullah JaliliWealthy businessman [25]
Faramarz Tamanna Former Director General of the Center for Strategic Studies (Ministry of Foreign Affairs)
Shaida Mohammad Abdali Ambassador to India
Ahmad Wali Massoud
Noor Rahman Liwal IT expert and businessman [26]
Mohammad Shohab Hakimi
Mohammad Hakim Tursun
Abdul Latif Pedram Member of the Parliament
Nur ul-Haq Ulumi National United Party of Afghanistan Former Minister of Interior
Mohammad Ibrahim Alokozai
Enayatullah Hafiz
Mohammad Hanif Atmar Truth and Justice Former National Security Adviser and Minister of Interior (campaign suspended)
Ghulam Faruq Nejrabi
Zalmai Rassoul Former Minister of Foreign Affairs (campaign suspended, supporting Ashraf Ghani) [27]

Opinion polls

The 2019 presidential election was the first in Afghanistan where opinion polls were funded and conducted by Afghan institutions.

PollsterDate(s) administeredSample Ghani Abdullah Hekmatyar Tamana Nabil Pedram Hanif Atmar OtherUndecidedLead
Ind NCA Ind Ind Ind Ind Ind
OSRA 5 August–28 September 201911,33740.9%7.0%0.6%0.7%0.6%1.5%20.4%33.9%
OSRA 30 March–25 May 20192,40535.1%5.8%2.5%1.2%3.3%3.0%43.3%29.3%
Preliminary results [28] 22 Dec 20191,824,40150.6%39.5%3.9%1.0%1.9%0.7%0.1%

Results

On 27 October 2019 Hawa Alam Nuristani, chief of the Independent Election Commission (IEC), announced that the preliminary presidential election results would be made public on 14 November, and that consultations with the other election commissioners which were taken to make the results more transparent had been completed. [29] She also stated that the publication of the election results was delayed for two reasons: an attempt to hack the commission's server and the picking of the digital lock of the commission's digital center. [29]

On 13 November, the commission announced that the results were being delayed a second time, indefinitely. [30]

The preliminary results were announced on 22 December, [31] and the definitive ones on 18 February 2020.

CandidatePartyVotes%
Ashraf Ghani Independent 923,59250.64
Abdullah Abdullah National Coalition 720,84139.52
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar Hezb-e Islami Gulbuddin 70,2413.85
Rahmatullah Nabil Independent 33,9191.86
Faramarz Tamanna Independent 18,0630.99
Sayed Noorullah Jalili Independent 15,5190.85
Abdul Latif Pedram National Congress Party 12,6080.69
Enayatullah Hafiz Independent 11,3750.62
Mohammad Hakim Torsan  [ fa ] Independent 6,5000.36
Ahmad Wali Massoud Independent 3,9420.22
Mohammad Shahab Hakimi Independent 3,3180.18
Ghulam Farooq Najrabi Independent 1,6080.09
Mohammad Hanif Atmar Truth and Justice 1,5670.09
Noor Rahman Lewal Independent 8550.05
Total1,823,948100.00
Registered voters/turnout9,665,74518.87
Source: IEC

By province

ProvinceGhaniAbdullahTotal
votes
Votes%Votes%
Badakhshan15,23421.7239,24655.9670,126
Baghis2,37424.566,20964.249,664
Baghlan5,82819.2621,00169.4330,245
Balkh24,07333.2740,07855.3972,345
Bamyan15,02118.2155,79567.6682,452
Daykundi29,74230.2962,52163.6898,170
Farah3,55278.2253911.864,541
Faryab5,09019.3820,27477.2226,252
Ghazni19,25837.0926,94651.9051,922
Ghor21,55344.4019,84940.8948,540
Helmand30,78481.354,87612.8937,841
Herat34,19929.4356,11748.29116,210
Jowzjan7,30519.3729,00676.9237,710
Kabul166,61747.73141,88240.64349,082
Kandahar59,54886.913,7285.4468,514
Kapisa4,59932.587,08950.2314,114
Khost75,10996.467871.0177,866
Kunar54,90785.525,0727.9064,205
Kunduz3,63628.688,07463.7012,676
Laghman22,76987.814691.8125,930
Logar13,34494.005033.5414,196
Nangarhar188,52092.224,9522.42204,429
Nimruz7,18673.321,48215.129,801
Nuristan6,29057.873,51632.3510,869
Paktia35,65792.891,6434.2838,386
Paktika29,49993.618282.6331,512
Panjshir2,07911.3015,34383.4118,393
Parwan7,78323.4420,44861.5733,211
Samangan7,12319.0528,39275.9337,393
Sar-e Pol6,15417.9926,32576.9734,203
Takhar8,58213.8849,51480.0861,832
Uruzgan3,51864.7493617.225,434
Wardak1,2796.4317,13986.1219,901
Zabul5,38089.922624.385,983
Total923,59250.64720,84139.521,823,948
Source: IEC

Aftermath

The announcement of the results triggered a political crisis. Abdullah Abdullah rejected the results and called for the formation of a parallel government in northern Afghanistan. [32] On 22 February Abdullah appointed a new governor loyal to himself in Sar-e Pol Province. [33] American diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad attempted to mediate between Ghani and Abdullah, but the two were unable to reach an agreement and both of them took the presidential oath of office at separate inauguration ceremonies on 9 March, with Ghani being sworn in for a second term. [6] [7] Shortly afterwards, Ghani abolished the office of Chief Executive, [34] held by Abdullah, and Abdullah issued a statement saying that "Ghani is no longer president," and his decrees were invalid. [35]

On 23 March 2020 the United States announced that as a result of the political crisis it would reduce aid to Afghanistan by $1 billion. If Ghani and Abdullah do not reach an agreement, it may reduce aid further. [36] The political crisis was brought to an end on 17 May 2020, when Ghani and Abdullah signed a power-sharing deal. [8]

On 15 August 2021 Ghani's presidency came to an end after Taliban entered Kabul during the 2021 Taliban offensive and Ghani fled Afghanistan. Vice President Amrullah Saleh declared himself transitional president in Bazarak, capital of Panjshir Province and the last region under government control, however, he was forced to leave after Panjshir was captured altogether by the Taliban on 8 September.

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