"As Maine goes, so goes the nation" was once a maxim in United States politics. The phrase described Maine's reputation as a bellwether state for presidential elections. Maine's September election of a governor predicted the party outcome of the November presidential election in 23 out of the 29 presidential election years from 1820 to 1932: namely 1820–1844, 1852, 1860–1880, 1888, 1896–1908 and 1920–1932; more importantly, as Maine was a generally Republican-leaning state, the margin of the September elections compared to expectations could predict national November results more than the identity of the winning party in Maine. A contest still won by the Republicans but with a narrower margin than usual would still predict good Democratic results nationally. [1]
Maine's reputation as a bellwether began in 1840, when it elected Edward Kent, the Whig Party candidate, as its governor; two months later, the Whig Party presidential candidate, William Henry Harrison, won the 1840 presidential election. [2] Again in 1888, Maine voted solidly for Republican Party candidates, and Republican Benjamin Harrison won the presidential election despite losing the overall popular vote nationwide. [3] The saying originated following this election, though it is unknown by whom. [3]
Beginning with its creation as a state in 1820 when it split off from Massachusetts, Maine held its elections for statewide and congressional offices in September, not in November as most other states did, due to frigid November weather and Maine's early harvest (Maine did hold its presidential elections in November). [2] [4] [5] Maine was a reliably Republican state during the time period, but the size of the margin was predictive; a close run in September in Maine would predict good results for Democrats in the rest of the country in November, while a Republican landslide would suggest a good Republican year. [1]
In subsequent election cycles, national political parties often went to considerable lengths to win Maine's early congressional and statewide elections, despite the state's relatively small population (giving it two seats in the House of Representatives and four electoral votes in the November presidential elections) and somewhat remote location in the far northeast of the continental United States.
In 1936, Maine elected Republican governor Lewis O. Barrows, an overwhelmingly Republican state legislature, and an all-Republican congressional delegation in its early balloting. While Maine had elected a Democratic governor (Louis J. Brann) and two Democratic congressmen in both 1932 (although President Herbert Hoover, a Republican, carried it in his unsuccessful bid for re-election that November) and 1934, the Republicans had been making gains in the Maine Legislature: as such, the Republican victories in Maine in September 1936 caused Republicans to trumpet the phrase and predict a national trend.
That November, however, Maine and Vermont were the only states that Republican nominee Alf Landon carried over President Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1936 presidential election, giving Landon only eight electoral votes (the three from Vermont and the five from Maine), [6] equalling the smallest total ever (as of 2020 [update] ) won by a major-party nominee since the beginning of the current U.S. two-party system in 1856: Landon was defeated by Roosevelt in an unprecedented landslide, destroying any credibility of the phrase, and also lost his home state of Kansas by a large margin.
James Farley, a leading Democratic strategist who managed FDR's campaign, quipped "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont." [7] [8]
In fact, since the birth of the Republican Party in 1854, Vermont and Maine have voted for different presidential candidates in the same election only twice: in 1912, a third-party campaign by former Republican president Theodore Roosevelt split the Republican vote with President William Howard Taft, enabling Democrat Woodrow Wilson to flip Maine with just 39% of the vote. Later, in 1968, favorite son Senator Edmund Muskie of Maine was the vice-presidential candidate on the losing Democratic ticket led by Hubert Humphrey, and flipped the state. During the same time, Vermont was still a mostly reliable Republican stronghold (having only voted Democratic once, in Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide): both states would shift to being reliably Democratic in 1992, and have not voted Republican since.
Following the 1936 election debacle, only one out of the five presidential elections from 1940 to 1956 had the party whose nominee won Maine's September gubernatorial election win the presidential election: in 1952, Republican Burton M. Cross was elected Governor, while Dwight D. Eisenhower was elected to his first term as President.
In 1959, Maine changed its election laws to hold all general elections in November, and since 1960, has held elections at the same time as the rest of the country. [7]
Presidential elections were held in the United States on November 3, 1936. In the midst of the Great Depression, incumbent Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Republican governor Alf Landon of Kansas in a landslide victory. Roosevelt won the highest share of the popular vote (60.8%) and the electoral vote since the largely uncontested 1820 election. The sweeping victory consolidated the New Deal Coalition in control of the Fifth Party System.
Alfred Mossman Landon was an American oilman and politician who served as the 26th governor of Kansas from 1933 to 1937. A member of the Republican Party, he was the party's nominee in the 1936 presidential election, and was defeated in a landslide by incumbent president Franklin D. Roosevelt. The margin of victory in the electoral college was the largest of Roosevelt's four elections to the office of president, as Landon won just 8 electoral votes to Roosevelt's 523. Landon died on October 12, 1987, becoming the only presidential candidate from either of the major parties to live to the age of 100 until Jimmy Carter in 2024, and is to date the only Republican candidate to do so.
The Literary Digest was an American general interest weekly magazine published by Funk & Wagnalls. Founded by Isaac Kaufmann Funk in 1890, it eventually merged with two similar weekly magazines, Public Opinion and Current Opinion.
The 1936 United States presidential election in California was held on November 3, 1936, as part of the 1936 United States presidential election. State voters chose twenty-two electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
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The 1936 United States elections were held on November 3, 1936, during the Great Depression. Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt trounced Governor Alf Landon of Kansas in a landslide and the Democrats built on their majorities in both chambers of Congress.
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The 1936 United States presidential election in New York took place on November 3, 1936. All contemporary 48 states were part of the 1936 United States presidential election. Voters chose 47 electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president. New York was won by incumbent Democratic President Franklin D. Roosevelt of New York, who was running against Republican Governor of Kansas Alf Landon. Roosevelt ran with incumbent Vice President John Nance Garner of Texas, and Landon ran with newspaper publisher Frank Knox of Illinois.
The 1948 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 2, 1948, as part of the 1948 United States presidential election which was held throughout all contemporary 48 states. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1944 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 7, 1944, as part of the 1944 United States presidential election which was held throughout all 48 states. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1940 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 5, 1940, as part of the 1940 United States presidential election which was held throughout all contemporary 48 states. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1936 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 3, 1936, as part of the 1936 United States presidential election which was held throughout all contemporary 48 states. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1936 United States presidential election in New Jersey took place on November 3, 1936. All contemporary 48 states were part of the 1936 United States presidential election. Voters chose 16 electors to the Electoral College, which selected the president and vice president.
The 1936 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on November 3, 1936, as part of the 1936 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1936 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on November 3, 1936, as part of the 1936 United States presidential election. The state voters chose four electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1912 United States presidential election in Maine took place on November 5, 1912, as part of the 1912 United States presidential election which was held throughout all contemporary 48 states. Voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president. Maine was won by the Democratic nominees, New Jersey Governor Woodrow Wilson and Indiana Governor Thomas R. Marshall. Wilson and Marshall defeated incumbent President William Howard Taft, and his running mate Vice President James S. Sherman and Progressive Party candidates, former President Theodore Roosevelt and his running mate California Governor Hiram Johnson.
The 1936 United States presidential election in Maine was held on November 3, 1936 as part of the 1936 United States presidential election. The state voters chose five electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1936 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on November 3, 1936, as part of 1936 United States presidential election held in all forty-eight contemporary states. Kansas voters chose nine electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.
The 1936 United States presidential election in Delaware was held on November 3, 1936. The state voters chose three electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
The 1936 United States presidential election in Idaho took place on November 3, 1936, as part of the 1936 United States presidential election. State voters chose four representatives, or electors, to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.