Blue wall (United States)

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The "blue wall" states all voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992, while the light blue states voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024 Blue Wall states 1992-2012 map.svg
The “blue wall” states all voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every election since 1992, while the light blue states voted for Donald Trump in 2016 and 2024

The "blue wall" is a term coined in 2009 in the political culture of the United States to refer to the several states (along with Washington, D.C.) that reliably "voted blue" i.e. for the Democratic Party in the six consecutive presidential elections from 1992 to 2012. Conversely, the terms "red wall" and "red sea" are less-commonly used to refer to states that Republicans consistently won in the same timeframe; states which have not voted consistently for one party are called “purple” or swing states.

Contents

During the 2016 presidential election, the Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, was a heavy favorite to win the electoral college, [1] [2] but Republican nominee Donald Trump challenged the status of the "blue wall" Rust Belt states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, which became swing states in the next three elections. The Trump victories in 2016 and 2024 included flipping these three states (the 2020 Biden victory won all three states with lower than three percent margins, and Biden was the first Democrat since the 1990s to win the states of Arizona and Georgia). [3] [4] [5]

The Southern United States had previously voted Democratic so reliably that it had been termed the "Solid South" until Republicans implemented the Southern strategy.

Origin

Ronald Brownstein claims to have coined the term "blue wall" in 2009. [6] After the 2012 presidential election, Paul Steinhauser called "blue wall ... the cluster of eastern, Midwest and western states that have traditionally gone Democratic." [7] The earliest description of the forces creating the blue wall comes from a Houston Chronicle blogger, Chris Ladd. A Republican, Ladd wrote in November 2014 that the seemingly impressive Republican win in the 2014 midterm elections had overshadowed another trend apparent in the results – a demographic and geographic collapse. [8]

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster. Understanding this trend begins with a stark graphic. Behold the Blue Wall.

The blue wall referred to a perceived Democratic demographic lock on the Electoral College resulting from the Republican Party's narrowing focus on the interests of white, rural, and Southern voters. According to Ladd, the presence of the blue wall means "a minimally effective Democratic candidate" is all but assured of winning 257 electoral votes [a] , just 13 short of the threshold needed to win the Electoral College and the presidency. [8] Ladd's analysis became popular when MSNBC commentator Lawrence O'Donnell featured it on a post-election episode of his show The Last Word with Lawrence O'Donnell . [9] George W. Bush defeated Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 because they could only pick up Iowa and New Mexico (12 votes) in 2000 and New Hampshire (4 votes) in 2004 in addition to the blue wall. A similar "red fortress", within which lie states solidly Republican, has also been posited to exist. [8] But, having fewer electoral college votes, it would be theoretically easier for a Democratic presidential candidate to win without breaching it, as had been done in 2012.

States behind the blue wall

Behind this "blue wall" lay states, many carrying a double-digit number of electoral votes, which appeared to be solidly behind the Democratic Party, at least on the national level. Republican presidential candidates could only contest a small selection of these states, as only a few swing states would have sufficient votes to make up the 270 threshold. States behind this wall lay generally in the Northeastern United States, the West Coast of the United States, and some of the Great Lakes states. In each of the six presidential election cycles prior to 2016, the Democratic Party had won 18 of these states (as well as the District of Columbia), totaling 238 of the necessary 270 votes need to win. The "big three" Democratic stronghold states include California, New York, and Illinois.

States falling behind this blue wall generally included those the Democrats had carried since the 1992 presidential election until the 2016 presidential election [7] [10] that included (in order of decreasing population and followed by current number of electoral votes): California (54), New York (28), Illinois (19), Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15), New Jersey (14), Washington (12), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), Minnesota (10), Wisconsin (10), Oregon (8), Connecticut (7), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), and Vermont (3), as well as Washington, D.C. (3); this is a total of 238 votes. Had Al Gore won New Hampshire (4) in 2000 or if John Kerry had won New Mexico (5) or Iowa (7) in 2004, those states could also have become part of the blue wall states since 1992; New Mexico and New Hampshire would further support the Democratic nominee in 2016, 2020, and 2024, while Iowa would not.

Ronald Reagan's landslide re-election in 1984 carried all states except for Minnesota, which last voted Republican with Richard Nixon in 1972; and the District of Columbia, which has voted for the Democratic candidate in every election since it was admitted to the electoral college for the 1964 election. As such, the blue wall began to materialize with the 1988 United States presidential election; states that voted solely for Democratic Presidents since 1988 were New York, Washington, Massachusetts, Wisconsin [b] , Oregon, Hawaii, and Rhode Island. The remainder of the blue wall was built in the 1992 United States presidential election: California, Illinois, Pennsylvania [c] , Michigan [d] , New Jersey, Maryland, Connecticut, Maine, Delaware, and Vermont.

2016: First breach of the blue wall

States that traditionally voted blue (Democratic), but voted Republican in 2016 are marked in red. Minnesota (a historic blue wall state), was won by Democrats by only 1.5% and Maine by 3% in 2016. Additionally, a congressional district in northern Maine gave the GOP one electoral vote. Blue Wall fall.svg
States that traditionally voted blue (Democratic), but voted Republican in 2016 are marked in red. Minnesota (a historic blue wall state), was won by Democrats by only 1.5% and Maine by 3% in 2016. Additionally, a congressional district in northern Maine gave the GOP one electoral vote.

The Democrats' "lock" on these states had been called into question between 2012 and 2016, as several had been competitive in recent elections, and many had Republicans currently holding elected statewide office, generally either senator or governor. [11] Blue wall states with a Republican senator included Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine. Those with a Republican governor included Massachusetts, Maryland, and Michigan. In addition to these 18 states, three others, Iowa, New Hampshire, and New Mexico, had only voted for the Republican once in the same six election cycles, giving their votes to George W. Bush in either 2000 or 2004 by a margin of no more than 10,059 votes. If included in the total, the votes behind the blue wall numbered 257, just 13 short of what is needed to win. Some in the mainstream media did, however, suspect the Democrats might lose Pennsylvania.

Nate Silver had criticized the idea of the blue wall, pointing to a similar "red wall/red sea" of states that voted Republican from 1968 to 1988. He argued that the blue wall simply represented a "pretty good run" in elections, and that relatively minor gains in the popular vote could flip some of its states to Republican. [12] This was seen in the 2016 election, where voters from manufacturing states traditionally behind the blue wall voted for Donald Trump, providing him the victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Maine's 2nd congressional district. [13] Others have also posited that the states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had never definitively been "safe" for the Democratic Party, citing the close margins in those states in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections and opining that the outsized margins of victory secured by Barack Obama in the elections of 2008 and 2012 may have created a false impression of their safety for Democratic candidates.

2020: Resurgence of the blue wall

During the 2020 United States presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden won the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. However, Biden carried these states only by 0.5–3 point margins, a considerable underperformance compared to Obama's margins in these states in 2008 and 2012. Long-term trends seem less favorable to Democrats in these states as they all voted to the right of the national average and many working-class white voters there have been moving towards the Republicans. [14] [15]

Biden also broke into the red wall/sea by winning Arizona, Georgia, and the 2nd congressional district of Nebraska. [16] [17] [18] However, Maine's 2nd congressional district voted for Donald Trump. Pundits saw former battleground states such as Colorado and Virginia becoming solidly Democratic-leaning after the 2020 election, partially as a result of demographic patterns. Biden won both of these states by more than 10% in 2020. [15]

2024: Second breach of the blue wall

During the 2024 United States presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump was able to regain the White House, largely due to the reclaiming of the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan (as well as Maine's 2nd congressional district). [19] [20] He would also win the popular vote for the first time due to a significant collapse of Democratic turnout. [21] Part of his victory in Michigan was attributed to the large population of Arab and Muslim voters who did not vote for the Democrats over their continued involvement in the deaths in Gaza and Lebanon; Harris saw a drop-off of more than fifty thousand votes compared to Biden's performance in 2020. [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] The attempted assassination of Donald Trump in Pennsylvania invigorated turnout upwards of 150 thousand votes in that state, [27] and as such Wisconsin was hence the most Democratic of the trio, where both candidates made gains. Trump's margin of victory in those states was less than two percent, very close to the national margin, but the victories added 44 electoral votes to his total. [28] In general, the improved Republican turnout coinciding with a severe drop in Democratic turnout presented a nationally weak performance for the Democratic ticket, where over 90% of counties nationwide swung towards the Republican party. Most of the turnout drop was in Democrat stronghold states, partially due to the perception of being "safely Democratic", resulting in performances such as New Jersey being in striking range of 5%, and San Francisco, California voting more than 15% for Donald Trump in the 2024 election, the highest share for a Republican presidential candidate in San Francisco in 20 years. [29]

Red sea

Red wall/sea states, along with the year they have been red since. All states colored on this map have been red since at least 2000. RWS.svg
Red wall/sea states, along with the year they have been red since. All states colored on this map have been red since at least 2000.

The states which Republican candidates have won in the twelve federal elections from 1980 to 2024 are: Texas (40), Alabama (9), South Carolina (9), Oklahoma (7), Mississippi (6), Utah (6), Kansas (6), Nebraska (4) (excluding Nebraska's 2nd congressional district), Idaho (4), South Dakota (3), North Dakota (3), Alaska (3), and Wyoming (3), giving a total of 103 votes. Additionally, Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Arkansas (6), West Virginia (4), and Montana (4) have been won by Republicans in the last seven elections (from 2000 to 2024), making more recent additions to the red wall/sea, bringing the total electoral votes up to 154. Other states with a 11-out-of-12 (from 1980 to 2024) Republican record include North Carolina (16) and Indiana (11), whose 27 electoral votes added to the 154 of the preceding twenty red sea states make for a total of 181 electoral votes, although North Carolina is usually a swing state that leans slightly towards Republicans, enough to prevent Democrats from winning it except for Obama when he narrowly won the state in 2008. Former red wall/sea states include Georgia [e] and Arizona, [f] which had been won by the Republicans in nine of the eleven elections from 1984 to 2024, but now considered swing states.

In presidential elections

Presidential votes in blue wall states since 1876:

YearCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIllinoisMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNew JerseyNew YorkOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandVermontWashingtonWisconsin
1876 Hayes Tilden Tilden No election [g] No election [h] Hayes Hayes Tilden Hayes Hayes Hayes Tilden Tilden Hayes Hayes Hayes Hayes No election [i] Hayes
1880 Hancock Garfield Hancock Garfield Garfield Hancock Garfield Garfield Garfield Hancock Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield Garfield
1884 Blaine Cleveland Cleveland Blaine Blaine Cleveland Blaine Blaine Blaine Cleveland Cleveland Blaine Blaine Blaine Blaine Blaine
1888 Harrison Cleveland Cleveland Harrison Harrison Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison
1892 Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Cleveland Harrison Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Cleveland Cleveland Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Harrison Cleveland
1896 McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley Bryan McKinley
1900 McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley
1904 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Parker [j] Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt
1908 Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Bryan [k] Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft Taft
1912 Roosevelt Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Roosevelt Roosevelt Wilson Wilson Wilson Roosevelt Wilson Taft Roosevelt Wilson
1916 Wilson Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Wilson Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Hughes Wilson Hughes
1920 Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding Harding
1924 Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge Coolidge La Follette
1928 Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Smith Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Hoover Smith Hoover Hoover Hoover
1932 Roosevelt Hoover Hoover Roosevelt Hoover Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Hoover Roosevelt Hoover Roosevelt Roosevelt
1936 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Landon Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Landon Roosevelt Roosevelt
1940 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Willkie Roosevelt Roosevelt Willkie Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Willkie Roosevelt Roosevelt
1944 Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Dewey Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Roosevelt Dewey Roosevelt Dewey
1948 Truman Dewey Dewey Truman Dewey Dewey Truman Dewey Truman Dewey Dewey Dewey Dewey Truman Dewey Truman Truman
1952 Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower
1956 Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower Eisenhower
1960 Nixon Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Nixon Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Nixon Kennedy Kennedy Nixon Nixon Nixon
1964 Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson
1968 Nixon Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Humphrey Humphrey Humphrey Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Humphrey Nixon Humphrey Nixon
1972 Nixon Nixon Nixon McGovern Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon McGovern Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon Nixon
1976 Ford Ford Carter Carter Carter Ford Ford Carter Carter Ford Carter Ford Carter Ford Carter Carter Ford Ford Carter
1980 Reagan Reagan Reagan Carter Carter Reagan Reagan Carter Reagan Reagan Carter Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Carter Reagan Reagan Reagan
1984 Reagan Reagan Reagan Mondale Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Mondale Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan Reagan
1988 Bush Bush Bush Dukakis Dukakis Bush Bush Bush Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Dukakis Dukakis Bush Dukakis Bush Dukakis Dukakis
1992 Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton
1996 Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton
2000 Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore Gore
2004 Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry Kerry
2008 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
2012 Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama Obama
2016 Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton [l] Clinton Clinton Trump Clinton Clinton Clinton Clinton Trump Clinton Clinton Clinton Trump
2020 Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden [m] Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden Biden
2024 Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris [n] Harris Harris Trump Harris Harris Harris Harris Trump Harris Harris Harris Trump
YearCaliforniaConnecticutDelawareDistrict of ColumbiaHawaiiIllinoisMaineMarylandMassachusettsMichiganMinnesotaNew JerseyNew YorkOregonPennsylvaniaRhode IslandVermontWashingtonWisconsin
Key
Democratic Party nominee
Republican Party nominee
Third-party nominee [o]

Bold denotes candidates elected as president

See also

Explanatory notes

  1. ↑ Ladd included Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico in his analysis, which are not commonly agreed upon as part of the wall
  2. ↑ Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024.
  3. ↑ Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024.
  4. ↑ Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2024.
  5. ↑ Bill Clinton and Joe Biden won the state in 1992 and 2020, respectively.
  6. ↑ Bill Clinton and Joe Biden won the state in 1996 and 2020, respectively.
  7. ↑ The District of Columbia did not vote in presidential elections until 1964, after ratification of the Twenty-third Amendment to the United States Constitution.
  8. ↑ Hawaii was not a state until 1959 and did not vote in presidential elections until 1960.
  9. ↑ Washington was not a state until 1889 and did not vote in presidential elections until 1892.
  10. ↑ Parker won seven of Maryland’s eight electoral votes, with the other going to Roosevelt, whose highest elector actually received 51 more votes than Parker’s
  11. ↑ Taft’s highest elector actually received 605 more votes than Bryan’s, but of the top eight electors six were pledged to Bryan.
  12. ↑ Clinton won Maine's statewide vote, but Trump won one of the state's four electoral votes. Since the 1972 election, Maine has awarded two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, with one vote going to the winner in each congressional district.
  13. ↑ Biden won Maine's statewide vote, but Trump won one of the state's four electoral votes.
  14. ↑ Harris won Maine's statewide vote, but Trump won one of the state's four electoral votes. Since the 1972 election, Maine has awarded two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, with one vote going to the winner in each congressional district.
  15. ↑ These were all named nationally as the “Progressive Party”, though the 1924 version was not a continuation of the 1912 one.

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References

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  3. ↑ Goldmacher, Shane; Corasaniti, Nick; Gabriel, Trip (November 8, 2020). "'It's Such a Relief': Biden Voters Rebuild a Wall That Trump Smashed". The New York Times. Archived from the original on May 5, 2022. Retrieved November 8, 2020.
  4. ↑ Shamim, Sarah (November 7, 2024). "US election results: How did Donald Trump break the 'blue wall' – again?". Al Jazeera.
  5. ↑ "Trump holds electoral vote in northern Maine". Politico. November 4, 2020. Archived from the original on November 9, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
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  8. 1 2 3 Chris, Ladd. "The Missing Story of the 2014 Election". Houston Chronicle. Archived from the original on November 8, 2020. Retrieved January 14, 2017.
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  10. ↑ "Breaking Democrats' 'Blue Wall'". National Review . February 17, 2015. Archived from the original on February 19, 2015. Retrieved February 28, 2015.
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  12. ↑ Silver, Nate (May 12, 2015). "There Is No 'Blue Wall'". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 8, 2020. Retrieved March 21, 2016.
  13. ↑ "OFFICIAL 2016 PRESIDENTIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS, General Election Date: 11/08/2016". Federal Election Commission. January 30, 2017.
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  18. ↑ "Biden Wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District". Bloomberg.com. November 4, 2020. Archived from the original on November 4, 2020. Retrieved November 26, 2020.
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  20. ↑ "2024 Michigan Election Results". AP NEWS. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  21. ↑ O'Kruk, Amy; Rigdon, Renee. "7 charts and maps show where Harris underperformed and lost the election". CNN Politics.
  22. ↑ "Trump wins Dearborn, makes gains in Hamtramck amid anger over Gaza". www.freep.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  23. ↑ "'We warned you,' Arab Americans in Michigan tell Kamala Harris". www.aljazeera.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  24. ↑ "Michigan's Muslim Voters Sent Kamala Harris a 'Message'—Democrat". www.newsweek.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Trump wins Dearborn, Dearborn Heights amid fury over Gaza, Lebanon wars". www.detroitnews.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  26. ↑ "Arab American Voters in Dearborn, Michigan, Heard Trump's Case". www.detroitnews.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  27. ↑ Lewis, Ray (September 21, 2024). "Fetterman says Trump's 'special' place in Pennsylvania grew after assassination attempt". CBS Austin.
  28. ↑ "Latest Election 2024 News and Updates | Fox News Elections Center". www.foxnews.com. November 6, 2024. Retrieved November 6, 2024.
  29. ↑ Carson, Biz (November 14, 2024). "Even Liberal San Francisco Is Swept Up in Voter Shift Toward Trump". Bloomberg.
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