Danish general election, 2015

Last updated
Danish general election, 2015
Flag of Denmark (state).svg
  2011 18 June 2015 Next  

All 179 seats in the Folketing
90 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 85.8% [1]

 First partySecond partyThird party
  Helle Thorning-Schmidt-2.jpg Kristian Thulesen Dahl, 25-05-2014.jpg Lars Lokke Rasmussen (2009).jpg
Leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt Kristian Thulesen Dahl Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Party Social Democrats Danish People's Venstre
Last election44 seats, 24.9%22 seats, 12.3%47 seats, 26.7%
Seats won473734
Seat changeIncrease2.svg3Increase2.svg15Decrease2.svg13
Popular vote924,940741,746685,188
Percentage26.3%21.1%19.5%
SwingIncrease2.svg1.4%Increase2.svg8.8%Decrease2.svg7.2%

 Fourth partyFifth partySixth party
  Dnk party o.svg Informal meeting of ministers for foreign affairs (Gymnich). Arrivals Anders Samuelsen (36685969800) (cropped).jpg Danmarks kulturminister Uffe Elbaek vid Nordiska Radets session 2011 i Kopenhamn.jpg
LeaderCollective leadership Anders Samuelsen Uffe Elbæk
Party Red–Green Liberal Alliance The Alternative
Last election12 seats, 6.7%9 seats, 5.0%New party
Seats won14139
Seat changeIncrease2.svg2Increase2.svg4New party
Popular vote274,463265,129168,788
Percentage7.8%7.5%4.8%
SwingIncrease2.svg1.1%Increase2.svg2.5%New party

 Seventh partyEighth partyNinth party
  Morten Oestergaard (2012).jpg SFP Pia Olsen Dyhr.png SorenPape2.JPG
Leader Morten Østergaard Pia Olsen Dyhr Søren Pape Poulsen
Party Social Liberals Socialist People's Conservative People's
Last election17 seats, 9.5%16 seats, 9.2%8 seats, 4.9%
Seats won876
Seat changeDecrease2.svg9Decrease2.svg9Decrease2.svg2
Popular vote161,009147,578118,003
Percentage4.6%4.2%3.4%
SwingDecrease2.svg4.9%Decrease2.svg5.0%Decrease2.svg1.5%

Wahlkarte Folketing Danemark 2015 da.svg

Prime Minister before election

Helle Thorning-Schmidt
Social Democrats

Elected Prime Minister

Lars Løkke Rasmussen
Venstre

General elections were held in the Kingdom of Denmark on 18 June 2015 to elect the 179 members of the Folketing. 175 members were elected in the Denmark proper, two in the Faroe Islands and two in Greenland. Although the ruling Social Democrats remained the largest party in the Folketing and increased the number of seats they held, the opposition Venstre party was able to form a minority government headed by Lars Løkke Rasmussen with the support of the Danish People's Party, the Liberal Alliance and the Conservative People's Party.

Folketing Parliament of Denmark

The Folketing, also known as the Danish Parliament in English, is the unicameral national parliament (legislature) of Denmark. Established in 1849, until 1953 the Folketing was the lower house of a bicameral parliament, called the Rigsdag; the upper house was Landstinget. It meets in Christiansborg Palace, on the islet of Slotsholmen in central Copenhagen.

Geography of Denmark

Denmark is a Nordic country located in Northern Europe. It consists of the Jutland peninsula and several islands in the Baltic sea, referred to as the Danish Archipelago. Denmark is located southwest of Sweden and due south of Norway and is bordered by the German state Schleswig-Holstein to the south, on Denmark's only land border, 68 kilometers long.

Geography of the Faroe Islands

The Faroe Islands are an island group consisting of eighteen islands between the Norwegian Sea and the North Atlantic, about half-way between Iceland and Norway. Its coordinates are 62°N7°W. It is 1,393 square kilometres in area, and includes small lakes and rivers, but no major ones. There are 1,117 kilometres of coastline, and no land boundaries with any other country.

Contents

Background

Following the 2011 general election, a minority government was formed by the Social Democrats, the Social Liberal Party and the Socialist People's Party. The government was supported by the Red–Green Alliance. Helle Thorning-Schmidt, the leader of the Social Democrats, became Prime Minister. [2]

A minority government, or minority cabinet or minority parliament, is a cabinet formed in a parliamentary system when a political party or coalition of parties does not have a majority of overall seats in the parliament. It is sworn into office, with or without the formal support of other parties, to enable a government to be formed. Under such a government, legislation can only be passed with the support of enough other members of the legislature to provide a majority, encouraging multi-partisanship. In bicameral parliaments, the term relates to the situation in chamber whose confidence is considered most crucial to the continuance in office of the government.

The Social Democrats, officially Social Democracy, is a social-democratic political party in Denmark. It was the major coalition partner in government from the 2011 parliamentary election, with then-party leader Helle Thorning-Schmidt as Prime Minister. After the 2015 parliamentary election, the party is no longer in government, though it regained the position as the largest party in the Danish parliament, the Folketing, with 47 of 179 seats. Helle Thorning-Schmidt withdrew as party leader on the night of the election as a direct consequence of the loss of government control, and she was succeeded on 28 June 2015 by the former vice leader, Mette Frederiksen.

The government had rocky relations with the Red–Green Alliance, relying on their ad hoc support to pass bills instead of a formalized alliance. They have occasionally preferred to cooperate with Venstre to pass legislation. Symbolically, Red–Green deputy Frank Aaen told Finance Minister Bjarne Corydon "Happy New Year" on 28 February 2013, because the government had failed to meet with his party since the beginning of 2013. [3]

Venstre, full name Venstre, Danmarks Liberale Parti, is a conservative-liberal, agrarian political party in Denmark. Founded as part of a peasants' movement against the landed aristocracy, today it espouses an economically liberal pro-free market ideology.

Frank Aaen Danish politician and economist

Frank Aaen is a Danish economist and Member of Parliament for Enhedslisten. On 15 March 2006, he suffered a thrombosis, but was back in the Folketing by April. He has been a member of parliament from 1994 to 2001 and 2005 to 2015. Frank Aaen is an educated economist and holds a master's degree in economics from Aalborg University which he received in 1985.

Bjarne Corydon Danish politician

Bjarne Corydon was a Danish politician, and a member of the Social Democrats. He served as Finance Minister of Denmark in the Cabinet of Helle Thorning-Schmidt from 2011 to 2015.

On 3 February 2014, the Socialist People's Party left the government in protest over the sale of shares in the public energy company DONG Energy to the investment bank Goldman Sachs. [4] This sparked a crisis within the Socialist People's Party, as three former cabinet ministers left the party, joining either the Social Democrats or the Social Liberal Party. However, the Socialist People's Party continued to support the government on confidence motions, preventing an early election. [5]

Goldman Sachs U.S. investment bank

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., is an American multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in New York City. It offers services in investment management, securities, asset management, prime brokerage, and securities underwriting.

Danish Social Liberal Party Danish political party

The Danish Social Liberal Party is a social-liberal political party in Denmark. The party is a member of Liberal International and the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE).

A motion of no-confidence, alternatively vote of no confidence, or (unsuccessful) confidence motion, is a statement or vote which states that a person in a position of responsibility is no longer deemed fit to hold that position, perhaps because they are inadequate in some respect, are failing to carry out obligations, or are making decisions that other members feel detrimental. As a parliamentary motion, it demonstrates to the head of state that the elected parliament no longer has confidence in the appointed government. If a no confidence motion is passed against an individual minister they have to give their resignation along with the entire council of ministers.

The incumbent government prior to the elections consisted of a coalition between the Social Democrats and Social Liberal Party, with Helle Thorning-Schmidt continuing as Prime Minister. The cabinet was composed of 14 Social Democratic ministers and 6 Social Liberal ministers. [6] [7]

Helle Thorning-Schmidt Danish politician, former Danish Prime Minister

Helle Thorning-Schmidt is a retired Danish politician who served as the 26th Prime Minister of Denmark from 2011 to 2015, and Leader of the Social Democrats from 2005 to 2015. She is the first woman to hold each post. Following defeat in 2015, she announced that she would step down as both Danish Prime Minister and Social Democratic party leader. Ending her political career in April 2016, she is the chief executive of the NGO Save the Children.

Thorning-Schmidt II Cabinet Danish government from February 3rd 2014 to June 28th 2015.

The Second Cabinet of Helle Thorning-Schmidt was the Government of Denmark in office from 3 February 2014 to 28 June 2015. It was a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the Social Liberal Party.

Electoral system

The 179 members of the Folketing were elected in Denmark (175), the Faroe Islands (2) and Greenland (2). The 175 seats in Denmark included 135 seats elected in ten multi-member constituencies by proportional representation, using a modified version of the Sainte-Laguë method and Hare quota, and 40 "top-up" seats, allocated to parties in order to address any imbalance in the distribution of the constituency seats. [8]

Faroe Islands Autonomus constituent country of the Kingdom of Denmark

The Faroe Islands, or the Faeroe Islands—a North Atlantic archipelago located 200 miles (320 km) north-northwest of the United Kingdom and about halfway between Norway and Iceland—are an autonomous country of the Kingdom of Denmark. Total area is about 1,400 square kilometres (540 sq mi) with a population of 50,322 in October 2017.

Greenland autonomous country within the Kingdom of Denmark

Greenland is an autonomous constituent country of the Kingdom of Denmark between the Arctic and Atlantic oceans, east of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Though physiographically a part of the continent of North America, Greenland has been politically and culturally associated with Europe for more than a millennium. The majority of its residents are Inuit, whose ancestors began migrating from the Canadian mainland in the 13th century, gradually settling across the island.

Proportional representation (PR) characterizes electoral systems in which divisions in an electorate are reflected proportionately in the elected body. If n% of the electorate support a particular political party, then roughly n% of seats will be won by that party. The essence of such systems is that all votes contribute to the result - not just a plurality, or a bare majority. The most prevalent forms of proportional representation all require the use of multiple-member voting districts, as it is not possible to fill a single seat in a proportional manner. In fact, the implementations of PR that achieve the highest levels of proportionality tend to include districts with large numbers of seats.

According to the Danish Constitution, the election had to be held no later than 15 September 2015, as the last election was held on 15 September 2011. The Prime Minister was able to call the election at any date, provided it was no later than four years from the previous election, and this is often cited as a tactical advantage to the sitting government, as it can call an early election when polls are favourable. On 27 May Thorning-Schmidt announced that the elections would be held on 18 June 2015. [9]

Opinion polls

Polls notably underestimated the vote share received by the Danish People's Party. [10] [11]

Polling FirmDate V A O B F Ø I C K Å LeadRed
(A+B+F+Ø+Å)
Blue
(V+O+I+C+K)
GallupJune 1720.625.918.15.25.38.07.13.81.14.75.349.250.7
GreensJune 1720.924.418.55.65.48.57.63.30.65.23.549.150.9
VoxmeterJune 1719.625.917.24.66.39.87.73.50.94.56.351.148.9
EpinionJune 1720.624.518.05.25.39.37.53.90.74.94.349.250.7
MegafonJune 1720.625.517.95.05.28.67.73.90.94.65.148.951.0

Results

In Denmark proper, the "Red" bloc (A+B+F+Ø+Å) won 85 seats and the "Blue" bloc (V+O+I+C+K) 90 seats; the four seats representing the Faroes and Greenland did not affect the Blue bloc's majority.

Shaded, from red (A+B+F+A+O) to blue (C+I+K+O+V) Danish general election 2015, shaded from red (ABFAO) to blue (CIKOV).png
Shaded, from red (A+B+F+Å+Ø) to blue (C+I+K+O+V)
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
Denmark proper
Social Democrats (A)924,94026.347+3
Danish People's Party (O)741,74621.137+15
Venstre (V)685,18819.534–13
Red–Green Alliance (Ø)274,4637.814+2
Liberal Alliance (I)265,1297.513+4
The Alternative (Å)168,7884.89New
Danish Social Liberal Party (B)161,0094.68–9
Socialist People's Party (F)147,5784.27–9
Conservative People's Party (C)118,0033.46–2
Christian Democrats (K)29,0770.800
Independents3,0660.10
Invalid/blank votes41,073
Total3,560,0601001750
Registered voters/turnout4,145,10585.9
Faroe Islands
Republic 5,73024.51+1
Social Democratic Party 5,66624.310
Union Party 5,50023.50–1
People's Party 4,36818.700
Progress 7493.20New
Centre Party 6052.600
Self-Government Party 4031.700
Independents3451.500
Total23,36610020
Registered voters/turnout65.6
Greenland
Inuit Ataqatigiit 7,90438.510
Siumut 7,83138.210
Atassut 1,5267.400
Democrats 1,7538.500
Partii Naleraq 9624.70New
Invalid/blank votes538
Total20,51410020
Registered voters/turnout41,04850.0
Source: DST, KVF, Qinersineq
Popular vote
A
26.28%
O
21.08%
V
19.47%
Ø
7.80%
I
7.53%
Å
4.80%
B
4.58%
F
4.19%
C
3.35%
K
0.83%
Others
0.09%

Aftermath and government formation

Although the Social Democrats increased their share of the vote and won the most seats for the first time since 2001, the "Blue" opposition bloc led by Venstre's Rasmussen (Venstre, Danish People's Party, Liberal Alliance, Conservative People's Party, and Christian Democrats) gained a parliamentary majority over the "Red" Social Democrat-led bloc (Social Democrats, Red–Green Alliance, The Alternative, Social Liberals, and Socialist People's Party). Within an hour of the election result being declared, Thorning-Schmidt announced her government would step down on 19 June, and that she would also resign as party leader on the same day. [10]

In accordance with the Danish Constitution, on the day after the election each party submitted their recommendation to Queen Margrethe II for the appointment of a party to be in charge of government formation negotiations (the role of the Queen was purely formal, as her appointment had to reflect the will of the majority of the elected MPs). The submitted recommendations showed a parliamentary majority (all "blue bloc" parties) for Venstre to lead the process of government formation. The negotiation mandate was unconditional from all "blue bloc" parties, except Liberal Alliance, who initially made their support conditional on a first negotiation phase being restricted to the attempt to assemble a majority government (including all elected "blue bloc" parties). After Rasmussen had been granted this specific mandate, he invited such negotiations to begin on 20 June. [12]

Negotiations began on 20 June, but it was not thought likely that a majority government involving all the "blue bloc" parties was possible. The Conservative People's Party indicated they would rather stay out of a government coalition. [13]

The Danish People's Party set out four conditions for their involvement in a coalition: a Eurosceptic approach to the EU, the re-introduction of border controls, further restrictions on immigration and asylum policy, and 0.8% growth in public spending. Meanwhile, the Liberal Alliance also indicated willingness to be in a coalition, but the party supports reductions in public spending, [13] as does Venstre. [14]

On 21 June, Rasmussen concluded that, having tried, it would not be possible to form a majority government and he announced his intention to seek a new negotiation mandate allowing a minority government. On 28 June, Lars Løkke Rasmussen's new government assumed office with a cabinet composed solely of Venstre ministers. [15]

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References

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