Economic data

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Economic data are data describing an actual economy, past or present. These are typically found in time-series form, that is, covering more than one time period (say the monthly unemployment rate for the last five years) or in cross-sectional data in one time period (say for consumption and income levels for sample households). Data may also be collected from surveys of for example individuals and firms [1] or aggregated to sectors and industries of a single economy or for the international economy. A collection of such data in table form comprises a data set.

Contents

Methodological economic and statistical elements of the subject include measurement, collection, analysis, and publication of data. [2] 'Economic statistics' may also refer to a subtopic of official statistics produced by official organizations (e.g. statistical institutes, intergovernmental organizations such as United Nations, European Union or OECD, central banks, ministries, etc.). Economic data provide an empirical basis for economic research, whether descriptive or econometric. Data archives are also a key input for assessing the replicability of empirical findings [3] and for use in decision making as to economic policy.

At the level of an economy, many data are organized and compiled according to the methodology of national accounting. [4] Such data include Gross National Product and its components, Gross National Expenditure, Gross National Income in the National Income and Product Accounts, and also the capital stock and national wealth. In these examples data may be stated in nominal or real values, that is, in money or inflation-adjusted terms. Other economic indicators include a variety of alternative measures of output, orders, trade, the labor force, confidence, prices, and financial series (e.g., money and interest rates). At the international level there are many series including international trade, international financial flows, direct investment flows (between countries) and exchange rates.

For time-series data, reported measurements can be hourly (e.g. for stock markets), daily, monthly, quarterly, or annually. Estimates such as averages are often subjected to seasonal adjustment to remove weekly or seasonal-periodicity elements, for example, holiday-period sales and seasonal unemployment. [5]

Within a country the data are usually produced by one or more statistical organizations, e.g., a governmental or quasi-governmental organization and/or the central banks. International statistics are produced by several international bodies and firms, including the International Monetary Fund and the Bank for International Settlements.

Studies in experimental economics may also generate data, [6] rather than using data collected for other purposes. Designed randomized experiments may provide more reliable conclusions than do observational studies. [7] Like epidemiology, economics often studies the behavior of humans over periods too long to allow completely controlled experiments, in which case economists can use observational studies or quasi-experiments; in these studies, economists collect data which are then analyzed with statistical methods (econometrics).

Many methods can be used to analyse the data. These include, e.g., time-series analysis using multiple regression, Box–Jenkins analysis, and seasonality analysis. Analysis may be univariate (modeling one series) or multivariate (from several series). Econometricians, economic statisticians, and financial analysts formulate models, whether for past relationships or for economic forecasting. [8] These models may include partial equilibrium microeconomics aimed at examining particular parts of an economy or economies, or they may cover a whole economic system, as in general equilibrium theory or in macroeconomics. Economists use these models to understand past events and to forecast future events, e.g., demand, prices and employment. Methods have also been developed for analyzing or correcting results from use of incomplete data and errors in variables. [9]

Economic data issues

Good economic data are a precondition to effective macroeconomic management. With the complexity of modern economies and the lags inherent in macroeconomic policy instruments, a country must have the capacity to promptly identify any adverse trends in its economy and to apply the appropriate corrective measure. This cannot be done without economic data that is complete, accurate and timely.

Increasingly, the availability of good economic data is coming to be seen by international markets as an indicator of a country that is a promising destination for foreign investment. International investors are aware that good economic data is necessary for a country to effectively manage its affairs and, other things being equal, will tend to avoid countries that do not publish such data.

The public availability of reliable and up-to-date economic data also reassures international investors by allowing them to monitor economic developments and to manage their investment risk. The severity of the Mexican and Asian financial crises was made worse by the realization by investors that the authorities had hidden a deteriorating economic situation by slow and incomplete reporting of critical economic data. Being unsure of exactly how bad the economic situation was, they tried to withdraw their assets quickly and in the process caused further damage to the economies in question. It was the realization that data issues lay behind much of the damage done by these international financial crises that led to the creation of international data quality standards, such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) General Data Dissemination System (GDDS). [10] [11]

Inside a country, the public availability of good quality economic data allows firms and individuals to make their business decisions with confidence that they understand the overall macroeconomic environment. As with international investors, local business people are less likely to overreact to a piece of bad news if they understand the economic context.

Tax data can be a source of economic data. In the United States, the IRS provides tax statistics, [12] but the data are limited by statutory limitations and confidentiality concerns. [13]

Related Research Articles

Economics is a social science that studies the production, distribution, and consumption of goods and services.

Econometrics is an application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference." An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships." Jan Tinbergen is one of the two founding fathers of econometrics. The other, Ragnar Frisch, also coined the term in the sense in which it is used today.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International Monetary Fund</span> International financial institution

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is a major financial agency of the United Nations, and an international financial institution funded by 190 member countries, with headquarters in Washington, D.C. It is regarded as the global lender of last resort to national governments, and a leading supporter of exchange-rate stability. Its stated mission is "working to foster global monetary cooperation, secure financial stability, facilitate international trade, promote high employment and sustainable economic growth, and reduce poverty around the world." Established on December 27, 1945 at the Bretton Woods Conference, primarily according to the ideas of Harry Dexter White and John Maynard Keynes, it started with 29 member countries and the goal of reconstructing the international monetary system after World War II. It now plays a central role in the management of balance of payments difficulties and international financial crises. Through a quota system, countries contribute funds to a pool from which countries can borrow if they experience balance of payments problems. As of 2016, the fund had SDR 477 billion.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Developed country</span> Country with a developed industry and infrastructure

A developed country, or high-income country, is a sovereign state that has a high quality of life, developed economy, and advanced technological infrastructure relative to other less industrialized nations. Most commonly, the criteria for evaluating the degree of economic development are the gross domestic product (GDP), gross national product (GNP), the per capita income, level of industrialization, amount of widespread infrastructure and general standard of living. Which criteria are to be used and which countries can be classified as being developed are subjects of debate. Different definitions of developed countries are provided by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank; moreover, HDI ranking is used to reflect the composite index of life expectancy, education, and income per capita. Another commonly used measure of a developed country is the threshold of GDP (PPP) per capita of at least US$22,000. In 2023, 40 countries fit all four criteria, while an additional 15 countries fit three out of four.

Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms. There are numerous specific definitions of what constitutes a business cycle. The simplest and most naïve characterization comes from regarding recessions as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. More satisfactory classifications are provided by, first including more economic indicators and second by looking for more informative data patterns than the ad hoc 2 quarter definition.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Public finance</span> Study of the role of government within the economy

Public finance is the study of the role of the government in the economy. It is the branch of economics that assesses the government revenue and government expenditure of the public authorities and the adjustment of one or the other to achieve desirable effects and avoid undesirable ones. The purview of public finance is considered to be threefold, consisting of governmental effects on:

  1. The efficient allocation of available resources;
  2. The distribution of income among citizens; and
  3. The stability of the economy.

Monetary economics is the branch of economics that studies the different theories of money: it provides a framework for analyzing money and considers its functions, and it considers how money can gain acceptance purely because of its convenience as a public good. The discipline has historically prefigured, and remains integrally linked to, macroeconomics. This branch also examines the effects of monetary systems, including regulation of money and associated financial institutions and international aspects.

Economic statistics is a topic in applied statistics and applied economics that concerns the collection, processing, compilation, dissemination, and analysis of economic data. It is closely related to business statistics and econometrics. It is also common to call the data themselves "economic statistics", but for this usage, "economic data" is the more common term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic model</span> Simplified representation of economic reality

An economic model is a theoretical construct representing economic processes by a set of variables and a set of logical and/or quantitative relationships between them. The economic model is a simplified, often mathematical, framework designed to illustrate complex processes. Frequently, economic models posit structural parameters. A model may have various exogenous variables, and those variables may change to create various responses by economic variables. Methodological uses of models include investigation, theorizing, and fitting theories to the world.

A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices.

Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled by "Consensus Economics". Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently.

National accounts or national account systems (NAS) are the implementation of complete and consistent accounting techniques for measuring the economic activity of a nation. These include detailed underlying measures that rely on double-entry accounting. By design, such accounting makes the totals on both sides of an account equal even though they each measure different characteristics, for example production and the income from it. As a method, the subject is termed national accounting or, more generally, social accounting. Stated otherwise, national accounts as systems may be distinguished from the economic data associated with those systems. While sharing many common principles with business accounting, national accounts are based on economic concepts. One conceptual construct for representing flows of all economic transactions that take place in an economy is a social accounting matrix with accounts in each respective row-column entry.

International economics is concerned with the effects upon economic activity from international differences in productive resources and consumer preferences and the international institutions that affect them. It seeks to explain the patterns and consequences of transactions and interactions between the inhabitants of different countries, including trade, investment and transaction.

Articles in economics journals are usually classified according to JEL classification codes, which derive from the Journal of Economic Literature. The JEL is published quarterly by the American Economic Association (AEA) and contains survey articles and information on recently published books and dissertations. The AEA maintains EconLit, a searchable data base of citations for articles, books, reviews, dissertations, and working papers classified by JEL codes for the years from 1969. A recent addition to EconLit is indexing of economics journal articles from 1886 to 1968 parallel to the print series Index of Economic Articles.

The System of National Accounts is an international standard system of national accounts, the first international standard being published in 1953. Handbooks have been released for the 1968 revision, the 1993 revision, and the 2008 revision. The System of National Accounts, in its various released versions, frequently with significant local adaptations, has been adopted by many nations. It continues to evolve and is maintained by the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, and Eurostat.

Economic methodology is the study of methods, especially the scientific method, in relation to economics, including principles underlying economic reasoning. In contemporary English, 'methodology' may reference theoretical or systematic aspects of a method. Philosophy and economics also takes up methodology at the intersection of the two subjects.

<i>International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences</i> 26-volume work published by Elsevier on social and behavioral science

The International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, originally edited by Neil J. Smelser and Paul B. Baltes, is a 26-volume work published by Elsevier. It has some 4,000 signed articles, and includes 150 biographical entries, 122,400 entries, and an extensive hierarchical subject index. It is also available in online editions. Contemporary Psychology described the work as "the largest corpus of knowledge about the social and behavioral sciences in existence." It was first published in 2001, with a 2nd edition published in 2015. The second edition is edited by James D. Wright.

The methodology of econometrics is the study of the range of differing approaches to undertaking econometric analysis.

Edward Emory Leamer is a professor of economics and statistics at UCLA. He is Chauncey J. Medberry Professor of Management and director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Agustín Maravall</span> Spanish economist (born 1944)

Agustín Maravall Herrero is a Spanish economist. He is known for his contributions to the analysis of statistics and econometrics, particularly in seasonal adjustment and the estimation of signals in economic time series. He created a methodology and several computer programs for such analysis that are used throughout the world by analysts, researchers, and data producers. Maravall retired in December 2014 from the Bank of Spain.

References

Notes

  1. ↑ • Jeff Dominitz and Arthur van Soest, 2008. "survey data, analysis of," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Abstract.
      • C. Hsiao, 2008. "Economic Panel Data," International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences , pp. 4114–4121. Abstract.
  2. ↑ • Referred to in the Journal of Economic Literature classification codes under JEL: C8 – Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology and JEL: E01 – Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth.
      • T. P. Hill, 2001. "Macroeconomic Data," International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences, pp. 9111–9117. Abstract.
  3. ↑ Richard Anderson, William H. Greene, B. D. McCullough, and H. D. Vinod, 2008. "The Role of Data/Code Archives in the Future of Economic Research," Journal of Economic Methodology, 15(1), pp. 99–115. Archived 2021-11-04 at the Wayback Machine
  4. ↑ • Nancy D. Ruggles, 1987. "social accounting," The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics , v. 4, pp. 377–82.
      • André Vanoli, 2008. "national accounting, history of", The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics , 2nd Edition.Abstract.
      • T. P. Hill, 2001. "Macroeconomic Data," International Encyclopedia of the Social & Behavioral Sciences , pp. 9111–9117. Abstract.
  5. ↑ Svend Hylleberg, 2008. "seasonal adjustment," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition, Abstract.
  6. ↑ Vernon L. Smith, 1976. "Experimental Economics: Induced Value Theory," American Economic Review, 66(2), p p. 274–279.
  7. ↑ • David Moore and George McCabe. Introduction to the Practice of Statistics.
      • David A. Freedman, et alia. Statistics.
  8. ↑ Francis X. Diebold, Lutz Kilian and Marc Nerlove, 2008. "time series analysis," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd Edition. Abstract.
  9. ↑ • William S. Krasker et al., 1983. "Estimation for Dirty Data and Flawed Models," ch. 11, Handbook of Econometrics, v. 1, pp. 651–698.
       • Zvi Griliches "Economic Data Issues," ch. 25, Handbook of Econometrics, v. 3, 1986, pp. 1465–1514.
       • Christina D. Romer, 1989. "The Prewar Business Cycle Reconsidered: New Estimates of Gross National Product, 1869–1908," Journal of Political Economy, 97(1), pp. 1–37.
  10. ↑ http://dsbb.imf.org International Monetary Fund, Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board
  11. ↑ International Monetary Funds, General Data Dissemination System (GDDS)
  12. ↑ IRS. – Tax Statistics – Produced by the Statistics of Income Division and Other Areas of the Internal Revenue Service.
  13. ↑ Nicholas H. Greenia, 2007. Statistical Use of U.S. Federal Tax Data," SOI Paper Series.

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